Pool Outlook for Montreal

The Montreal Canadiens almost made that miraculous comeback to the post-season in 2019, being right there in the last few days of the season, but some poor stretches midway through the season kept them out of a lot of the tie-breaking situations, but ultimately, that didn't matter too much, as they were 2 points short of Columbus for that last wild card spot in the east. 

Given that this team was 28th overall last season and they were going to be starting the 2019 campaign with their captain on the shelf, not to mention a couple of other key injuries, they managed to overcome some of those long odds to put together a fairly respectable season.  The expectations were pretty low, but the emergence of Tomas Tatar and the rookie, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, renewed some hope in front of Carey Price, who played his heart out through the season.

The challenge now will to be building upon a decent season that came up short in Montreal and they have got a lot of the key pieces already in place, which should help.  There could be a good push from some of the young players that they have already in the system and are ready to make the jump, plus they do have some roster spots available for the taking in the free agent marketplace. 

Fortunately for the Canadiens, Carey Price was back to being himself and he tried to carry the load for this team, but it was just too much weight to carry by himself and thus, the team fell a bit short.  Price was a busy boy, appearing in 66 games for the Habs, posting 35 wins and 79 points this season, good enough for 5th among all goalies and 34th overall.  A healthy number one will be key to any success that the Canadiens have next season and at least their franchise player is trending in the right direction again.

There was certainly an uptick in scoring for the Canadiens, as they had 11 skaters that were also pool worthy this season, which certainly brought them much closer to the playoffs.  Max Domi, Tomas Tatar, Jonathan Drouin, Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, Andrew Shaw, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Paul Byron all figured into the top 200 forwards this season, which is very solid.  Domi emerged as a top scorer, ranking 45th among all forwards in scoring, leading the way for these forwards.  The blueline provided some decent offense as well, Jeff Petry, Shea Weber and Jordie Benn all figured into the scoring a fair bit this year, Petry ranking 15th among all defenders this season.  Weber was solid, despite not starting play until Week Nine and he got up to 44th among defensemen in the back two-thirds of the year.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

Montreal should be and will be better in 2019... talk about a low expectation bar to set, but it's true. How much better depends on their two highest paid players in Price and Weber and their respective health. If these guys are 100% heading into camp and into the regular season, Montreal will be set to compete. Moving some pieces around in the summer may be in their best interest, since the years of failure in recent memory might weigh heavily on some of the longer tenured players on the roster and bringing in some fresh faces could be what this team needs to take a new approach to the year. They're not that bad, they get to add a premier forward at the draft and there is still some talent waiting in the wings, so it's hard to think that they won't be better than 28th overall in 2019.

Yes, the Canadiens were definitely much better than 28th overall in the standings in 2019, that was going to be a given, unless there were some unforeseen circumstances, but we covered all the foreseeable events, so the improvement was certainly there.  The additions to the club, both at the trade deadline last season and the entry draft were huge for this club, adding scoring and solid play down the middle and they were definitely competitive.

How did my intriguing or breakout player fare?

It was a very disappointing season for defenseman Noah Juulsen, who wasn't able to claim one of those spots on the blueline in training camp, thanks mostly to injury troubles at the beginning of the season.  He couldn't quite get his feet set with the team and then in December, he was sent down to the AHL and was having vision problems down there after his facial fracture and missed most of the back half of the season, unable to come up and play for the big club again in 2019.

2020 Pool Outlook

Forwards	Cap	Defense	Cap	Goalies	Cap
Jonathan Drouin	5.500	Shea Weber	7.857	Carey Price	10.500
Tomas Tatar	4.800	Jeff Petry	5.500	Charlie Lindgren	0.750
Andrew Shaw	3.900	Karl Alzner	4.625
Brendan Gallagher	3.750	Noah Juulsen	0.863
Paul Byron	3.400	Christian Folin	0.800
Max Domi	3.150	Victor Mete	0.748
Phillip Danault	3.083
Dale Weise	2.350
Nicolas Deslauriers	0.950
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	0.925
Ryan Poehling	0.925
Matthew Peca	0.650

A team that grows together, wins together.  11 of 12 pool worthy players are signed on for next season for the Canadiens and they are adding some top end talent in Ryan Poehling, luring him out of college and into their lineup, so this team has the ability to be special, right out of the gate.  There has to be a real sense of optimism among the Montreal faithful.  They will be a popular team at the hockey pool draft, one would have to believe.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The only pool worthy player not on the roster at the time of this post is defenseman Jordie Benn, as he heads to unrestricted free agency, if he isn't extended before July 1st.  His 22 points may earn him a bit of a raise from the $1.1 million he counted against the cap in 2019, so we'll see where that lands him. 

On the restricted free agent list, there are some notable names, if not worthy, in Artturi Lehkonen and Joel Armia, both had some positive impacts on the team this season and could find their way back in the lineup again next season.

I have the Canadiens with a fairly thin 20-man roster up above and that has them in at $66.4 million, still $16.6 million clear of the projected cap ceiling of $83 million.  This can certainly make them aggressive in this off-season, possibly to bolster the blueline.

The scoring depth at the forward position appears to only be getting better with Ryan Poehling being signed out of college, one year early.  The Canadiens were able to offer the 6'2" and 200-pound forward the ability to jump into the lineup for the team's last game of the season and he posted a hat-trick in that game, which should make us poolie salivate at the prospect of taking him in the draft this fall.  He'll definitely be one to watch, but how early do you want to take him?

Needs at the 2019 Entry Draft

With much of the top defensemen available already snapped up in this mock entry draft, to date, I think the Canadiens won't be digging too deep, unless they have a real good line on a top defender and bump him up.  From this spot, they would be wise to take a good skating forward, which is really their MO these days.  Well, how about finding a new brother combination in the draft, adding Ryan Suzuki to the mix, who has skating, vision and some finish and uniting him with his brother, Nick, who they acquired from Vegas last fall.  That has to be a very entertaining idea.

If the Montreal Canadiens are going to make, or at the very least, compete, for the playoffs, who is going to come out of the Eastern Conference picture right now?  I guess that can't really worry about that, but they will be eyeing up some of those teams, looking to knock one of them out next year and I think they have a really good chance at doing that, all things considered equal.  This team has had its share of health concerns over the last couple of seasons and if that sort of thing can be overcome, their scoring depth and a premier goalie should allow for another shot at the playoffs.  I like the direction they're going in and barring a complete disaster, they should be right there.

Evening Preview (Apr 2)

There's going to be plenty of playoff ramifications in the 10 games on the NHL schedule tonight, which may be a little bit more exciting than some of the hockey pool races that are left, but we'll mix in a little bit of both, just like we have been doing for the last few weeks.

Stacey M. retook 2nd place on Monday night, gaining a 2-point advantage over Kristy & Don and Stacey still has a slight advantage in the projected games to be played column on the standings page as well.

Jesse and Tony both got off to good starts last night, Jesse passing Grant's team for 4th place and made up a little bit of ground on the duo, now 19 points back heading into tonight's action.

Dale C. and Ryan both made up some ground on Wes' team for a top 10 spot in the standings this year, Wes' team is now clinging to a 2-point buffer for that last coveted spot in the standings.

Finally, Derek B.'s team leads Scott's team 1-0 this week in the battle for the basement, Derek's team is now 4 points clear at the start of play tonight.  Scott's team had the chances last night, but couldn't post the points.

Lots to go on the schedule today, so let's get right at it.

Pekka Rinne (John P.) versus Carter Hutton (Wes)
The Nashville Predators dropped to 3rd in the Central last night, thanks to tie-breakers not in their favour, but they could retake 2nd with a win in Buffalo tonight.

The pool goalie match-up will see Pekka Rinne going for John P. and his 15th place team against Carter Hutton and his 10th place team in the standings.  Right now, John's team could finish as high as 14th and as low as 18th, while Wes' 10th place hold isn't very strong, only 4 points clear of 13th, so both are jockeying for their own final placement, but where they are, they're not related at all, given the gap between 13th and 14th.

On the injury front, it sounds like Rasmus Ristolainen is ready to return for the last few games of the season for the Sabres, which is okay news for Jeremy's 19th place team.  As it has been mentioned over the last few days, his team is resting comfortably with no hope and no stress.

Tuukka Rask (Jesse) versus Sergei Bobrovsky (Kristy & Don)
The Boston Bruins are in and are now just jockeying for position in the Atlantic Division race, while the Columbus Blue Jackets have been red hot of late and looking to secure their spot in the playoffs in a come from behind sort of fashion.  The Jackets have very little breathing space to work with, but the teams they are racing against, much like themselves, have difficult opposition tonight, so a loss might not be the end of the world.

It's a pretty solid top four goalie match-up tonight, as Jesse's team is tracking down the money spots and he gets a key start for the Bruins and Tuukka Rask tonight, something to possibly shave down the gap between his team and 3rd place.  Kristy & Don occupy that spot and they have the reigning Player of the Week starting, Sergei Bobrovsky, so I would say that this is the hockey pool game of the night and one worth watching.

Petr Mrazek (Stacey C.) versus Garret Sparks (Grant)
The Hurricanes are one of those teams that the Jackets are racing against in that 3-team race for two wild card spots and Carolina has drawn the Maple Leafs tonight, who coincidentally, is racing against the Bruins for 2nd place in the Atlantic.  I'm sure they are looking at Columbus saying, "we'll scratch your back, if you scratch ours" tonight.

Grant gets the first of two starts tonight with Garret Sparks going for the Leafs tonight.  Grant's team lost 4th place in the standings last night to Jesse and starts 2 points out and 21 points out of 3rd, so he'll need some real help from the crease tonight, if he's going to have a chance at anything.  For Stacey C., it looks like the best his team can finish is 7th and his team starts 6 points back of that spot at the start of play tonight, but gets a start from Petr Mrazek and the Canes, as they hunt down a playoff spot.

Eddie Pasquale (N/A) versus Carey Price (Stacey M.)
The third team in the 3-team race, the one currently on the outside looking in, the Montreal Canadiens, don't get any favours tonight, drawing the President's Trophy recipients, the Tampa Bay Lightning.  If there is any saving grace to this, the Bolts played last night, where the Habs didn't, so that could work in their favour a little.

Stacey M. appears to be getting the only pool start with Carey Price heading back to the crease for the Habs tonight, as they try and make that big push to a playoff spot.  Stacey's team is also trying to make that push to get away from Kristy & Don in 2nd place and both of those teams are getting starts here tonight, which should keep things very interesting.

Matt Murray (Scott) versus Jimmy Howard (Tony)
The Pittsburgh Penguins can punch their ticket into the playoffs tonight in the first of a home-and-home series with the Detroit Red Wings tonight, if they post a win in any fashion on the road tonight.  The Red Wings are more than happy to play spoiler, as they have two players really motoring in the scoring department right now and they could make the Penguins sorry, if the Pens take these games for granted.

Matt Murray was the first off the ice at the Penguins' skate this morning, meaning that Scott will get another start out of the Pittsburgh number one tonight.  Scott's team is the only one sitting at zero points at the start of play tonight.  The race to get out of last is far from over.  It doesn't seem very logical that the Red Wings would bring out a keeper for his first start against the Penguins, so it seems far more likely that Jimmy Howard gets the start again, but that has yet to be confirmed.  I'm sure Tony is looking for this start, hoping the Wings can play a spoiling role at home tonight.

One scratch expected tonight, as the Penguins didn't have Brian Dumoulin on the ice at the skate, he is not expected to play against Detroit due to a lower-body injury.  A missed skater game from the blueline likely won't hurt Neil's team too badly, but his team has reached its ceiling of 7th, now trying to stave off Stacey C. for the spot.

Eric Comrie (N/A) versus Devan Dubnyk (Wes)
Big Central Division match-up in Minnesota, when the Jets take on the Wild.  The Wild are looking at this game with a serious level of desperation, 5 points back of the last wild card spot, so they most definitely need a win in any fashion to at least have a chance, while the Jets, they're just looking to pad their small lead in the division, looking for that division title.

We knew the Wild were going into this big game with Devan Dubnyk back in the crease, giving Wes another start tonight, getting both keepers into the nets tonight will certainly help his chances at defending 10th place tonight.  The Jets haven't confirmed their goalie, but seeing as though they are on back-to-back nights and they still have two games remaining after this one, it seems very likely that they will finally give Eric Comrie a spin in net, since Laurent Brossoit may not be ready to go from his injury yet.

Cam Talbot (Mike) versus Anton Khudobin (Grant)
The Dallas Stars only need 1 point to get themselves into the playoffs and they get a team now playing for pride in the Philadelphia Flyers at home, but they shouldn't be taking this team likely, as the Flyers are a sly bunch and will play spoiler at the drop of a hat.

Grant's team does have a little bit of hope with a second start tonight, thanks to the Dallas Stars and Anton Khudobin getting the call against the Flyers.  It's not going to be an easy game, but one that he could win and help Grant retake 4th place and possibly make that late push for 3rd as well.  The Flyers are doing Mike's team a favour tonight and giving Cam Talbot another audition for a job for next season, as Mike may or may not (I'm not exactly sure, to be honest) want that 20th overall spot from Benson.

Mikko Koskinen (Tony) versus Semyon Varlamov (Wilton)
The Oilers were officially eliminated last night, while the Avalanche can eliminate the Blackhawks and pad their slight lead in the wild card with a win tonight.  Both teams are coming off of losses last night, so the curse of the back-to-back will do one of these teams in tonight.

Surprisingly, with not a whole lot to play for, Tony is going to be gifted another start from the Oilers, as they'll send Mikko Koskinen back to the net, which will certainly give him at least a chance for 2 points, but the Avalanche are going to be hungry for those points and I can't imagine the mood in the Oilers room is all that giddy.

Martin Jones (Brenda & Seward) versus Thatcher Demko (Clayton)
The San Jose Sharks are locked into 2nd place in the Pacific and the Vancouver Canucks have been out of the playoff picture for a few days now, so there isn't a whole lot to play for tonight, except for jobs and pride.

The Canucks will be giving rookie goalie Thatcher Demko a chance to improve their chances against the Sharks, a team they haven't had much success against in recent history.  Clayton's 17th place team sure hopes that's the case, but the best his team can do is 14th, so the hope for the pool points is somewhat moot.  Brenda & Seward will get another start from Martin Jones and the visiting Sharks tonight, as expected, their only start of the night, chasing down Chelsea's team, which misses out on a Canucks start tonight.

And if Clayton's team wanted that win, he probably didn't want to see the return of his forward Joe Pavelski to the Sharks lineup tonight.  It looks like he's ready to return from injury, after missing the last few weeks and sinking his pool team into the depths of the bottom half of the standings.

Jack Campbell (N/A) versus Darcy Kuemper (Neil)
The Arizona Coyotes have the most hope remaining in the schedule to possibly climb into a wild card spot, as they start the night only 2 points behind the Avalanche with three games to go and they have the tie-breakers in their back pocket, so they just need to get the points to make it really interesting too.  They get the Kings tonight, who lost last night to the Flames, which may bode well for the dogs, but this is why we play the game!

No surprises with the Coyotes tonight, as they will definitely be going with Darcy Kuemper again, giving Neil another start and a good chance at points in this game.  His grip on 7th could be strengthened by a good effort from the dogs tonight, especially with a road-weary club as their opponent.

Saturday Preview (Mar 30)

Well, it's another rush job today, as we get the preview ready for Saturday, as it was a late start for me and a fairly early start for the NHL, with the first game going at 11am MT.

Kristy & Don have leapt out to the lead in the Mover & Shaker race, now up to 29 points and really taking a good grip on 3rd place in the standings.  Tony and Stacey C. are not far behind at 27 points, while Jesse's team remains hopeful at 25 points.  Between Tony and Jesse, if either of those two want 3rd place, they need their teams to be much, much better than the duo's this weekend.

Troy and Scott are duking it out in the Basement Dweller race, both teams start the day at 6 points each, and only Steve is in ear shot of those two, up at 9 points.

Roberto Luongo (John P.) versus Tuukka Rask (Jesse)
The Boston Bruins can get one step closer to clinching home-ice in the opening round of the playoffs with a win against the Panthers tonight at home.  Of course, this is one of those key games that Jesse needs to get some points and climb back into the 3rd place race, as Tuukka Rask has been given the nod for the Bruins today.  Jesse's team is only 3 points out of 4th at the start of play tonight, which would be a good hurdle to get over.

In other pool news, Mike Matheson of the Panthers is expected to return to the lineup, which is good news for John P. today.  Matheson spent a game in the press box as a healthy scratch, which has been pretty popular for his blueline this season.

Cam Talbot (Mike) versus Petr Mrazek (Stacey C.)
The Carolina Hurricanes are doing Stacey C. a solid in his bid for the Mover & Shaker this week, giving Petr Mrazek a spin in net on Saturday afternoon against the Flyers.  Philadelphia is also in the charitable mood, giving Cam Talbot a start in the matinee game, as Mike's team looks to take back their top 20 spot in the standings.

We do know that Shayne Gostisbehere has been tapped to be a healthy scratch in this game this afternoon, he will make way for youngster Sam Morin to get some minutes down the stretch, now that the games don't mean nearly as much.  Scott's team fell back into last place last night and this scratch won't help.

Carey Price (Stacey M.) versus Connor Hellebuyck (Jeremy)
It hasn't been confirmed exactly, but it seems fair to assume that Carey Price will be going for the Canadiens in Winnipeg tonight, as they desperately try to claw their way back into the playoff picture against the Jets.  Stacey M. is starting to look over her shoulder, since her lock on 2nd place has begun to get unstable, now only 12 points up on the surging duo in 3rd.  A bad weekend could really make that interesting.  Connor Hellebuyck is expected to get the start for the Jets, with Jeremy's team still floating in 19th.

Lots of lineup news for this one, as the Canadiens are expected to scratch Jesperi Kotkaniemi tonight, which doesn't help Stacey M.'s cause much at all, but he hasn't exactly been putting the points up to warrant staying in the lineup either.  On the Jets side, Dustin Byfuglien is expected to be back in the lineup for the last push to the playoffs, trying to shake off the rust in the last nine days before the end of the regular season.  Dale C. is eyeing up a top 10 spot, starting in 11th today and getting a big piece back healthy.

Garret Sparks (Grant) versus Craig Anderson (Mike)
The Battle of Ontario goes tonight in Ottawa, when the Leafs take on the Senators.  Grant's team gets a rare start out of the Leafs, as they will go with Garret Sparks tonight against the lowly Sens, a couple of points that Grant really needs, if his team is to climb back into 3rd place again before the end of the year.  His team starts 10 points out of 3rd and is chasing the current Mover & Shaker to get there.  Mike has been confirmed for two starts already today, which is good for that chase for 20th, but that's about it.

Did I mention that the Leafs could clinch their playoff berth tonight?  No?  Oh, silly me.  They only need 1 point tonight to do so, so either an overtime/shootout loss (or a win, whatever!) or a Montreal loss in any fashion, will get the job done.

Braden Holtby (Stacey C.) versus Andrei Vasilevskiy (Dale C.)
We know that Braden Holtby has been given the green light in Tampa Bay tonight, giving Stacey C. another start for his chase for the Mover & Shaker this week.  At this point in the morning, we still haven't heard about the Lightning's starter, but given the opponent, it would seem very likely that Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the nod at the other end.  Dale C.'s chances at 10th place get better with a start here, if it happens.

His chances might take a hit, since Brett Connolly is questionable to go for the Capitals tonight, as he may have been bitten by the flu bug.  He'll be questionable to a game-time decision ahead of this one and if he can't go, he'll be day-to-day.  Ondrej Palat is expected to make a return from an upper-body injury tonight, another positive for Stacey M. and her defense of 2nd place.

Jake Allen (Steve) versus Cory Schneider (N/A)
A pair of teams cycling through their goalies, the Blues playing last night and the Devils just going through the motions, will go tonight in Jersey.  The Blues clinched last night, despite their loss, and they still have an outside chance at winning the Central Division, starting the night only 4 points back of both Winnipeg and Nashville, both teams going tonight.

Steve appears to be getting the only pool start in this game, if Allen does indeed go, it's still unconfirmed.  His team could distance itself from the basement with a win here.  As it was mentioned before, his team is the closest to the race to the bottom, starting 3 points clear.

Carter Hutton (Wes) versus Robin Lehner (Chelsea)
Wes' team is trying to defend his return to the top 10 with a Carter Hutton win on Long Island tonight, as the Sabres are trying to redeem a little bit of their pride after a tough collapse on a great start to the regular season.  They would like to have some sort of glimmer of hope, heading into the off-season.  Chelsea potentially could have two starts today, the first coming here in this game, as Robin Lehner is expected to get the start for the Islanders, who still have their eye on a Metro Division title.

The Islanders can also claim their playoff spot officially with a win or a Canadiens regulation loss or if both teams lose after regulation.  It's just that easy.  I'm expecting a big game from those Islanders though.

Sergei Bobrosky (Kristy & Don) versus Juuse Saros (Eric)
Neither goalie for the game between the Blue Jackets and the Predators were confirmed, but here's my best guess in the early part of the day.  The duo should be getting their start from Sergei Bobrovsky, since the Jackets are in the thick of the wild card race in the east and if Juuse Saros is over his bout of the flu from last night, he could get the nod tonight, but again, that's still up in the air.

Maxime Lagace (N/A) versus Martin Jones (Brenda & Seward)
Nothing confirmed in net for the Golden Knights and the Sharks, but as long as Marc-Andre Fleury is injured, Vegas won't have a pool goalie regardless.  They played last night and lost, yet still clinched their spot, thanks to the Coyotes' loss, so I would assume that Maxime Lagace will finally get a start in San Jose tonight.  We're looking for Martin Jones to get the nod again for the Sharks, giving Brenda & Seward a start, they're still chasing down Chelsea's team for 22nd in the standings, starting play 5 points back.

Anton Khudobin (Grant) versus Jacob Markstrom (Chelsea)
The injury to Ben Bishop should suggest that Anton Khudobin will get another start tonight, this time in Vancouver, taking on the Canucks.  Khudobin and the Stars can clinch their playoff berth with any type of win tonight, they just need the 2 points and Grant could use the points as well, in that chase for 3rd place.  The Canucks goaltending, still unconfirmed, could go either way, but since Jacob Markstrom got the night off on Thursday, we'd expect him back tonight.

John Gibson (Kristy & Don) versus Mikko Koskinen (Tony)
Fresh off getting their feathers ruffled in Calgary, the Ducks are in Edmonton on the Alberta back-to-back challenge, taking on the Oilers.  In the pool standings, this would probably be considered the hockey pool game of the night, since it's 3rd place Kristy & Don seeing their goalie, John Gibson, return to the net after a night off, while Tony's 6th place team should get another start from Mikko Koskinen.  The gap between the two teams is 18 points, which is improbable to make up, but it all starts with 2 points here in this game.

Corey Crawford (N/A) versus Jonathan Quick (Brenda & Seward)
Remember when these two teams were the class of the Western Conference at the same time?  Those were definitely some days.  The Kings were long eliminated from playoff contention and the Blackhawks are not long for the playoff world either.  They're not officially eliminated yet, but it's close.  Jonathan Quick is the likely keeper for the Kings, unconfirmed, but likely... while the same goes for Corey Crawford is the likely keeper for the Blackhawks.  The last gasps for Chicago are painful to watch, but there they go.