Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Hoffman For Boedker

2018 Season July 1st, 2018
To San Jose POS Age GP Goals Points Years Cap Hit
Mike Hoffman F 28 82 22 56 2 $5.2 mil
Cody Donaghey D 22 0 0 0 1 $617k
2020 5th Round Draft Pick
To Ottawa POS Age GP Goals Points Years Cap Hit
Mikkel Boedker F 28 74 15 37 2 $4 mil
Julius Bergman D 22 0 0 0 1 $714k
2020 6th Round Draft Pick

Tuesday morning got off to a rockin' start, as there was a trade announced first thing, seeing the Ottawa Senators and San Jose Sharks swap some players and picks.

The Senators have parted ways with forward Mike Hoffman, who has been the centre of some ugly allegations and has reportedly been on the block for quite some time already, and in return they receive Danish forward Mikkel Boedker, who has been bouncing around quite a bit in the last few seasons, struggling to find his scoring stride on a consistent basis.

Hoffman has been hovering around the 55-to-60 point range in the last three seasons and I think there is still some upside with his game, something that could certainly unlocked, playing with guys like Joe Pavelski and/or Logan Couture.  This becomes a pretty good little upgrade for the Sharks, who couldn't find the scoresheet nearly as often as they would have liked against the Golden Knights in the playoffs.

The Senators get a little bit more cap flexibility in their lineup, shaving $1.2 million off their annual hit, but with that, they do receive a bit more inconsistency in their lineup, which struggled for regular scoring in the 2018 season.  Boedker was up at 51 points in 2016, way down to 26 points in 2017 and rebounded a little in 2018 with 37 points.  There's a chance that Boedker could find some chemistry in Ottawa, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.

Besides the top two forwards in the trade, the teams also swapped prospect defensemen and picks in 2020, but it is really the forwards that highlight this deal and make it what it is.

I'm expecting to see some better numbers out of Hoffman in the coming season, already penciling him in to really take a big step in the right direction.  This move could be a huge weight off his shoulders and after a couple of failed seasons of projecting 65 points, I'm bumping him up to 70 points for 2019 right now.  Boedker, on the other hand, I've had a bit more success in his projections, having him in the 35-point range last summer, and I am only expecting him to do roughly the same next season.  I'm not convinced that this is a better move for the player or the team, not that they really had much of a choice to keep Hoffman or not.

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Habs Lock Up Newcomer Domi

"Welcome to Montreal, Max Domi.  Here is your 2-year contract and now you can work towards that top six spot in the lineup."

On Saturday morning, less than 24 hours from being acquired, the 23-year old Domi signed a 2-year, $6.3 million deal, locking him into his new club and providing his new side some added flexibility on the salary cap end and all kinds of grit and ability on the ice.

If you missed the trade post from earlier this morning, Domi finished last season with 9 goals and 45 points in all 82 games for the Coyotes, good enough to be 127th among all forwards in scoring and well within the realm of being a key hockey pool contributor.  It wasn't his career-best, but it was certainly a good season and now he gets to apply his trade in a major market, under the microscope.

The Canadiens were not a very good team for us hockey poolies in the 2018 and the move to bring on Domi for Alex Galchenyuk, really took away some offensive flair from this side and still leaves them short down the middle of the ice.  The current projection of the team, especially the forwards, isn't a very big side, not that they necessarily have to be these days, but it just seems to lack size, both physically and in reputation.

Forwards Cap Defense Cap Goalies Cap
Jonathan Drouin 5.500 Shea Weber 7.857 Carey Price 10.500
Max Pacioretty 4.500 Jeff Petry 5.500 Antti Niemi 0.950
Andrew Shaw 3.900 Karl Alzner 4.625
Brendan Gallagher 3.750 David Schlemko 2.100
Max Domi 3.150 Jordie Benn 1.100
Paul Byron 1.167 Noah Juulsen 0.863
Nicolas Deslauriers 0.950 Victor Mete 0.748
Artturi Lehkonen 0.925 Mike Reilly 0.725
Nikita Scherbak 0.863
Jeremiah Addison 0.720
Byron Froese 0.650
Charles Hudon 0.650
Daniel Audette 0.643

With the addition of Domi to the projected lineup, I'm showing this current iteration of the team coming in at $62.3 million.  There's still plenty of room to make some more moves and it is expected that they will.  With a top three pick in this year's entry draft, they will also get to add a dynamic offensive forward, which could go a long ways to rounding out this side.

Fringe Signing (Jun 16)

The Chicago Blackhawks took care of some restricted free agents-to-be on Friday, signing both Vinnie Hinostroza and John Hayden to 2-year deals, Hinostroza's reportedly worth $3 million and Hayden's in the $1.5 million range.  The Blackhawks are going to have to rely on some of these cost-efficient contracts to help them stay competitive, while hoping that these guys can be huge bargains, by the time they hit the ice next season.

Hinostroza played in 50 games for the Blackhawks last season, registering 25 points and was 254th among all forwards in scoring, according to my rankings.  With some more ice-time, he can certainly creep his way up into the conversation as a late round forward.

Hayden played in 47 games, scoring 4 goals and 13 points, not quite the scoring record as above, but he'll be looked upon to fill in a lot of those minutes as well, providing depth to the team and hopefully a bit more scoring. 

Chicago remains reasonably flexible in its cap situation, but it's still going to be about saving those pennies and maybe making a better run at some better players at the trade deadline.

Galchenyuk for Domi

2018 Season July 1st, 2018
To Arizona POS Age GP Goals Points Years Cap Hit
Alex Galchenyuk F 24 82 19 51 2 $4.9 mil
To Montreal POS Age GP Goals Points Years Cap Hit
Max Domi F 23 82 9 45 0 RFA

Let the silly season, begin!

The Montreal Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes got it started off with a bit of a bang, as Alex Galchenyuk swapped spots with Max Domi, as two players that had their names dropped quite a bit in roster moves in recent months, both get shuffled off to fresh starts in different conferences.

Galchenyuk's time in Montreal was never all that bad, but it failed to live up to the hype of the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 draft, never quite finding his scoring touch at the elite level for the Canadiens.  Moves between the wing and centre were the talk of the town far too often and the team was always unable to find a complimentary player to play with him.  19 goals in 2018 wasn't bad, but it was an underachieving season, which left the Habs out of the playoff picture.

Domi, a 1st round pick back in 2013, never really faced the same scrutiny as his trade counterpart, but he was often in the forefront, as his style of game is certainly gritty, with much more upside to it than what his father showed a way back when.  In Montreal, he will certainly provide a little bit more edge to the lineup, once he's signed to a brand new deal.  The real trick for the Canadiens, will be to get Domi signed to a reasonable deal, which allows them to remain flexible and hope that the 23-year old can spark his play and become a real bargain.

The move to acquire Galchenyuk is a really big gain for the Arizona Coyotes, if he can somehow find that speed and skill game with his new club.  The Coyotes are already boasting some great young talent in Clayton Keller and Jakob Chychrun, but they have been quietly putting some hardly-aged veterans on this side too, which will certainly start making some noise here soon.  Sooner or later, this team is bound to explode.

To me, the Canadiens getting grittier doesn't exactly make them all that much better.  Domi has shown flashes of some offensive quality, but he has been far from consistent.  The hopes could be that he finds some chemistry with guys like Jonathan Drouin and/or Brendan Gallagher, both undersized, but somewhat dangerous at the same time.  There's still something missing in the Canadiens lineup, but all it could be is just belief in themselves.

Friday, June 15, 2018

Recent Contract Extensions (Jun 15)

Although it can't be made official until July 1st, it is expected that we'll see the announcement of Arizona Coyotes defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson signing a brand new 8-year contract extension, said to be worth $8.5 million per season.  The 26-year old defender still has one year left on his current deal, which carries a cap hit of $5.5 million, and his new deal will kick in for the 2020 season and will go all the way to the 2027 season.

Ekman-Larsson is one of a few high profile defensemen that would be up for unrestricted free agency after the 2019 season, if they were unable to sign contract extensions beforehand, and this deal will set the bar for the likes of Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty moving forward.

The Arizona defender had a pretty good 2018 season, finishing with 14 goals and 42 points in all 82 gmaes, which was good enough to sit him 23rd among all defensemen in scoring.  Those scoring numbers may not be overly staggering, but when you consider the team he's on, they don't look quite so bad.

My Mock Entry Draft

It's another year and time for another shot in the dark with my mock entry draft.  Now, if you've been following along with the Pool Outlook posts, I have been making picks as I have been going along and this is the first draft of the mock draft, as I rolled through the picking process.  This would be more of what I would do, than what might actually happen and that's what these mock drafts are all about right?

I'm sorry, what?  We're supposed to guess what the teams are going to do?  Well, most of them aren't very good at it anyways (or so I tell myself), so I am going to stick to my method.

If you're curious as to how I got to these picks, check back to the Pool Outlook posts, I do offer a reasonable explanation, in most cases, so have at it!

If there are any deals between now and the draft, where a 1st round pick may change hands, I might revise the mock draft, just for fun.

Team Player Position Pick
  Rasmus Dahlin D 1
  Filip Zadina F 2
  Brady Tkachuk F 3
  Andrei Svechnikov F 4
  Adam Boqvist D 5
  Quinn Hughes D 6
  Noah Dobson D 7
  Oliver Wahlstrom F 8
  Evan Bouchard D 9
  Ty Smith D 10
  Joel Farabee F 11
  Bode Wilde D 12
  Joseph Veleno F 13
  Jared McIssac D 14
  Jesperi Kotkaniemi F 15
  Serron Noel F 16
  Martin Kaut F 17
  Barrett Hayton F 18
  Ryan McLeod F 19
  Akil Thomas F 20
  Vitali Kravtsov F 21
  K'Andre Miller D 22
  Isac Lundestrom F 23
  Rasmus Sandin D 24
  Mattias Samuelsson D 25
  Grigori Denisenko F 26
  Benoit-Olivier Groulx F 27
  Adam Ginning D 28
  Rasmus Kupari F 29
  Ryan Merkley D 30
  Jonny Tychonick D 31