Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Pool Outlook for Buffalo

How bad were the Buffalo Sabres in 2014?  The Sabres only won 21 games in the year and finished 14 points back of the 29th ranked team in the league.  They couldn't score, they didn't play great defense and their goaltending, for the better part of the season, was under the microscope of the trade deadline and likely couldn't keep his concentration from one game to the next.

After they dealt Ryan Miller at the trade deadline, the Sabres couldn't keep a goaltender healthy, running through a handful of young goalies all the way to the end of the regular season.  Some of the better players were dealt throughout the year to try and kickstart their year, but nothing really helped.

Now, the team makes the move to rebuild, using a large number of assets taken from deals this year.  The Sabres will carry two 1st round picks into June and they could still get another 1st round pick, if the St. Louis Blues were to sign Miller to a new deal.

Some of the team's young talent, the foundation of what they will build upon, was on display in the 2014 season and under some tough circumstances, I don't think the audition for the future went all that bad for them.

Cody Hodgson led all forward in points, by the end of the season, as he finished with 44 points in 72 games played, which was good enough for 141st in pool scoring.  Between his health and a myriad of different linemates throughout the year, Hodgson did okay considering.  Tyler Ennis, Cory Conacher, Zemgus Girgensons and Marcus Foligno all showed some reasonable talent and they are all under the age of 25, which bodes well with their foundation.

On the blueline, the 2014 season was highlighted by Christian Ehrhoff, who led the back end with 33 points in 79 games, which may be a far cry from some of his personal bests, but he isn't playing on the same kind of team that he played his best on.  Tyler Myers started to bounce back in 2014, but still has some room to improve, while Jamie McBain started to make a better name for himself with more ice-time in Buffalo.

The Sabres had six goalies hit the ice for regular season action in the 2014 season and the goalie that remained with the team and had the most points was Jhonas Enroth, who only managed to register 4 wins on the season for 8 points.  Miller took all the points and ran to St. Louis at the deadline and left the Sabres with just about nothing.

2015 Pool Outlook

There is a pretty good chance that the best player to take in your hockey pool draft from the Buffalo Sabres will be whoever they take in the Entry Draft.  By the sound of things, they'll be in for an exciting young player that could be NHL-ready.  That being said, Hodgson ranks as a late 6th round pick in my hockey pool draft, assuming we have 24 teams again.  Ennis, Drew Stafford and Chris Stewart may see some time in the pool next season, but they'll go late as well, as there won't be much desire for the team's lack of offense on paper.

The team's defense may be the more interesting group, especially if they can get some confidence early on.  Ehrhoff and Myers will be looked towards, possibly at a lower rank than some years, but they can easily come up as bargains.

The Sabres have no goaltending that would be worthy of a high pick today, which generally means they have no real goaltending to build from.  I think there will be some goaltending taken from Buffalo, to help some teams fill the void, late in the draft, unless they go after a big free agent name in the Summer.

Maybe some of the Sabres' young players are what you're looking for?  Girgensons, perhaps?  He had 22 points in his rookie season and didn't look out of place, especially in the Olympics for Latvia.  Their 2013 1st round draft pick, Rasmus Ristolainen, played in 34 games for the Sabres, only scored 4 points, but took some valuable experience as a 19-year old.  Another youngster, Mikhail Grigorenko, played in 18 games before getting sent back to junior and should get a good look in training camp in September.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Henrik Tallinder, Cody McCormick, Alexander Sulzer (already gone to Europe), John Scott, Kevin Porter and Jamie Tardif, all played in the 2014 season and are heading to unrestricted free agency.  Tallinder is an interesting situation, as he wasn't dealt at the deadline and may want to stick around, but with only 8 points in 64 games, maybe the Sabres could improve there a little?

Going into the off-season, I have the Sabres listed with 17 players on their projected roster, which includes 11 forwards, four defensemen and a pair of goalies and they go in with a cap hit of $39.7 million, which includes some buyout calculations.  The Sabres likely won't be dropping large contracts on anyone during free agency, but they should be throwing some money around, just to get up to the salary cap floor.

Going to the draft, the Sabres could be rolling in the picks, currently sitting with one 1st round pick, but could end up with two or possibly three 1st round picks to start off.  The key pick should be the 2nd overall pick, which they ended up with after the draft lottery.  There is no reason to be disappointed, as there are three potential players ready to go number one, so the Sabres should end up with one of those players.  If the Panthers take a forward, then I think the Sabres should go with the other top-ranked forward, be it Sam Bennett or Sam Reinhart.  As much as defense is key in the NHL these days, some of the better rebuilds have stemmed from franchise forwards.  The Sabres could do really well with either Bennett or Reinhart.  If the Islanders let this year's pick go to them, after the Thomas Vanek mid-season deal, they would then have the 5th overall pick in the draft.  If the Blues trade the rights to Ryan Miller before the Entry Draft, the Sabres would gain their 20th overall pick.

Yes, the rebuild could be made much easier with three top end picks this Summer.

Rebuilds take time.  Some are longer than others and some are almost non-existent, it seems.  This boils down to management, pro and amateur scouting and making good use of the assets that you have.  Teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago and now St. Louis, have all seen the fruits of the labour in some winning season, while other teams have struggled by making some poor decisions with their line-up.

In predicting the Sabres 2015 season, it is somewhat difficult, as the team is now operating under some new management and offering an optimistic prediction may be a tad silly today.  The Sabres have the opportunity to make their future bright, but their present may be still laced with hardships and tough decisions to make.  With all of that being said, their depth is not very strong, there isn't much for goaltending on their side going into the Summer and if these issues are not addressed, it could be another long season in 2015.  I don't like their odds of a good season, rather, I like their odds of another good draft pick in June 2015.

No comments: