Wednesday, August 31, 2011

2012 Projections: Buffalo

The Buffalo Sabres are one of a hand full of teams that have so much intrigue and potential surrounding them, that it is almost too hard not to get excited about them when the hockey pool draft comes around. The Sabres have finally spent some money, with new ownership opening up the purse strings, and now it is time to see what the masterminds of a budget team can do at the salary cap ceiling.

The Sabres started the Summer with a lot of the right pieces already in place, having some key players in place for a number of years, plus adding a piece or two around the trade deadline.  It may not have been a question of if the Sabres were going to spend money, it was going to be a question of how much.  The Sabres spent the whole whack, even a little bit more, reaching into the projected 10% overage allowed by the NHL during the off-season, which was very impressive.

With the piggy bank emptied, the question then becomes, does the chemistry work between the new and old faces or will we see another version of the pre-salary cap New York Rangers?

ForwardsDefenseGoalies
Derek Roy85Christian Ehrhoff45Ryan Miller95
Thomas Vanek80Tyler Myers45Jhonas Enroth15
Brad Boyes70Jordan Leopold30
Jason Pominville70Andrej Sekera25
Drew Stafford65Mike Weber20
Ville Leino55Robyn Regehr15
Tyler Ennis40Shaone Morrisonn5
Nathan Gerbe35
Jochen Hecht35
Paul Gaustad30
Cody McCormick25
Patrick Kaleta15
Ales Kotalik5
Luke Adam20Marc-Andre Gragnani30Drew McIntyre5
Zack Kassian20
Marcus Foligno15

Pool Worthy Forwards (Inside the top 160, 35 points)
The Sabres' forwards have plenty of potential for points this year, with a healthy Derek Roy ready to go this year, Thomas Vanek finding some of his hands again last season, the addition of Brad Boyes was a good one for the club and you can continue down the line.

I'm not terribly convinced that Ville Leino is going to light up the scoreboard with a great deal of points, he'll be relied upon for some more checking minutes, but the linemates around him should be good enough to bump his numbers, but only to a point.

With all the new veteran faces around and their youth working against them, Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe may still be working with some underwhelming point totals by the end of the year, but they could really be swing players for the Sabres.  They have potential to jump higher, but they are down in the chart, looking at the names they have currently.

Pool Worthy Defensemen (Inside the top 80, 20 points)
The addition of Christian Ehrhoff this Summer makes for a very formidable top pair of blueliners, along side Tyler Myers, both of which are poised to excel in Buffalo.  I don't think the chemistry will be there right away for Ehrhoff to exceed his numbers in Vancouver, but he'll definitely help Myers jump up to his level, so it should work in their favour.

With some top end talent in the top potential pairing, numbers may not reflect well on the other four starting defensemen, as Leopold's numbers will rely on who he pairs up with.  Leopold could just as easily pair up with one of the two top defenders, which could help his numbers or he could work with some of the other three, which may hinder his numbers.  He could swing a fair distance this year.

Pool Worthy Goalies (Inside the top 40, 25 points)
Excellent scoring potential, still a fairly defensive system, the Sabres have a good mix on paper to help Ryan Miller pot 40 or more wins in 2012, which will make him a hot commodity when the draft goes down.  I have Miller at 95 points, which should be among the tops for goaltenders, possibly a few less shutouts than his counterparts, but he'll definitely have the wins.  Miller should look really good, with a lot of minutes.

Pool Worthy Rookies
Marc-Andre Gragnani can be a very good rookie this year, having shown some flashes in the playoffs this past Spring.  Gragnani is behind seven quality veteran defensemen, some of which do not require a lot of minutes on the ice to be effective, whereas Gragnani may need those minutes to blossom and mature in the NHL.  I can't quite see Gragnani busting through right away, unless he's earned the minutes that he is going to get, so a close eye will be needed for him in training camp.

Unsigned Players
None.

Key Injuries
In the playoffs last year, Jason Pominville suffered a lacerated leg, which ended up slicing into a tendon.  Pominville required surgery on his leg and the estimated recovery time was anywhere between 4-to-6 months.  The worst case scenario would put Pominville back in the line-up in late October, but I have not seen any reports to confirm what his status is.  For now, I would consider him ready to go, but will pass along any information, if he isn't.

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