Handicapping the Jinx

One of the greatest phenomenons in professional hockey is very hockey pool related. It comes on the heels of one of the better surprises of a hockey season, a talented rookie who lights up the league is a great benefit to a pool team, especially if you manage to pick him up at the beginning of the season with high hopes.

The sophomore jinx. The unexplainable force that can keep a great young player from repeating his great rookie season. It's happened more times than it may have been warranted, but it's one of those statistic blips in history that rears it's ugly head season after season. For poolies, it's one of the risks they have to take into account come the season after.

The most notable jinx last season was Penguins forward, Jordan Staal. Of course, that was more of a scoring jinx, because he was one of the more instrumental players on the Penguins team that went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately for poolies, it was a scoring drought that plagued the young Staal. His production went down from 29 goals and 44 points to 12 goals and 28 points. In a draft of 17 teams last season, Staal was taken in the 10th round, 159th overall, but he ended up finishing 294th in pool scoring, a far disappointment for high expectations.

As for the last season's rookie class, we (as hockey fans) were treated with a great batch of youngsters that gave us all sorts of ooohs and ahhhs through the year and now, before the season starts, we'll have a quick look at some of those wonderful rookies and we'll put an educated guess as to whether or not you should be going after them this season.

The best place to start would have to be the best rookie in the league, the Calder Trophy winner, Patrick Kane. Kane, the first overall pick in 2007, took the league by storm last season, finishing with 72 points in 82 games for the Blackhawks. That put him 45th overall in pool points scoring for the Sherpa's pools. That's a pretty good start to a career. The best way to really handicap the sophomore jinx on the Calder Trophy winner would be to compare him to the past Calder Trophy winners since the lockout, which is only fair, since the game had changed since then. In 2007, the winner was Evgeni Malkin. He just finished his sophomore season in second place for pool points with 106. Of course, he is a bigger, stronger and more mature player at age 22, which could set his stats apart from Kane. Nevertheless, still important for gauging. Then of course, in 2006, it was the race between Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, eventually won by Ovechkin. The first Calder Trophy winner, post-lockout, went on to finish 16th in pool scoring with 92 points in his sophomore season.

These first two comparisons mean good things, if trends were to arise. Ovechkin did see a small drop in points, from 106 to 92, between rookie and sophomore campaigns, but he was still up there. The benefit for Kane is that his starting spot in the rankings is 45th, so going up is definitely an option.

Unfortunately for Kane's teammate, Jonathan Toews, he was battling injuries through his rookie campaign, which kept him from realizing his true rookie potential. He still managed 54 points in 64 games for the Blackhawks last season, which is a touch under the scoring pace of his young teammate as well. The first thing you may want to handicap will be his health as a poolie, but you can't be faulted in giving him the benefit of the doubt. He only missed 18 games. More notably, he is considered to be the more naturally talented of the two youngsters in Chicago and he plays down the middle with Kane. It could very well turn into a parallel effect in scoring for the two, because as one goes, the other one won't be too far behind.

Obviously, this means great things for the Chicago Blackhawks, which you could put some good reason into picking more Hawks this Fall in your draft. Since Toews missed 18 games last season, the drive could be there to make-up for lost time this coming season and it should be fair to take him in front of Kane in the coming year, but that's more likely a discretion you'll have to make come draft day. There should be little doubt that he'll finish higher than his 111th spot in 2008.

The hype on Nicklas Backstrom coming into last season was incredibly high. The hype when he was drafted by Washington was also quite high, because his natural playmaking ability was immediately pencilled in beside teammate Alexander Ovechkin. At the beginning of the year, the Capitals were set to have Michael Nylander beside number eight, but when Nylander went down with a season-ending injury in January, the team needed to put someone in the number one centre spot and Backstrom was voted into the slot, more often than not. Although he didn't play every shift with Ovechkin, he did manage to put together a stellar season. Backstrom finished with 69 points in all 82 games for the Caps, which was good enough for 56th on the scoring list... very respectable. Going into this coming year, he'll likely be paired right away with Ovechkin, which could mean big things for the Swedish pivot, especially Ovechkin continues to improve, like Jaromir Jagr prognosticated on his way out to Europe.

It will be exceptionally hard to bet against Ovechkin's centre in 2009, so I won't. Survival of the jinx is something that Ovechkin can teach Backstrom in the coming year and the simple idea of just moving the puck over to the scoring machine sounds reasonable enough to cause doubt that the jinx will surface in Washington. If there is one concern to Backstrom's game, it will be scoring goals himself. He only managed 14 last season, but they did come in small spurts, so his lack of consistency could ironically be consistent between seasons. Don't try and bank on him for a goal scoring title, but he should be able to rack up the helpers.

The Phoenix Coyotes haven't been a franchise of many top rookies in the past five or so seasons. Their most notable rookie in the two seasons before last would be Keith Ballard, but it all changed with Peter Mueller, who finished with 54 points in 81 games for the desert dogs, ranking him 112th, just behind Toews. It is arguable that Mueller didn't quite have the linemates that Toews did, so the same amount of points in 17 more games could be considered reasonable. Mueller does come to the party with a boatload of talent, but may be short of teammates him out. The Coyotes will have Olli Jokinen in their line-up and they'll likely add Kyle Turris to the fold for a full-time turn, but will it be enough for Mueller to escape the sophomore jinx?

He does like to shoot the puck, which may be to his advantage with the likes of Turris coming on board, but he may be the closest player to resemble the bust of last season in Staal. Their size and speed are comparable, but Mueller does have a few more things going for him coming into 2009. He'll likely get more ice-time, less defensive situations and more power play time. Let's not forget, he is still in Phoenix and despite the additions to the team, the team's history may work against him and the jinx could be likely.

In Edmonton, there will be a bit more responsibility shovelled onto young Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano, who finished with 49 points in 79 games & 45 points in 82 games as an 18-year old and 20-year old, respectively. They'll likely share second-line centre duties coming into this season with themselves with linemate Robert Nilsson, which was quite the formidable line down the stretch for the Oilers. The team will also have to find room for new acquisition, Erik Cole, this Fall as well, who could be a big physical presence for the two young speedsters as well. Much like the situation in Chicago, however, it's likely that their successes and troubles will go hand in hand, but the Oilers have the benefit of splitting up the two and putting quality wingers with them, due to their new depth. Head coach, Craig McTavish, has an abundance of talent to work with and can likely mix up the lines with little repercussion.

The harsh environment of the Northwest Division does lend itself to being a tough place for players to flourish on a regular basis, as it's the toughest division in the league. The vision and speed of these two forwards can easily keep themselves out of trouble, but if they get caught in between some of the bigger defenders and wingers, their size may fail them, being under six feet tall. The size of Cole, Brodziak, Penner & Stortini could see to their likely protection as well. Escaping the jinx... it's likely, but a small drop in production is possible, thanks to watching the tapes in the opposition video room. Don't be in a big hurry to push their value up.

Curiosity really nags at me when it comes to goaltender Carey Price. Probably not for the reasons that I've been going on about, but rather, how many are going to bet against the 21-year old phenom in his sophomore NHL season? Price, now the number one guy in Montreal, will see a lot of pucks, thanks to the departure of Cristobel Huet at the trade deadline. In Price's limited action during the year (41 appearances), he still won 24 games, including 3 shutouts, which gave him 54 pool points, ranking him 103rd. It's extremely likely that he'll get some top quality minutes in the crease for the Habs, which could bring him close to 65 starts, which has the likelihood of 35 wins a safe bet. A 70-point season would have him close to the top 50. The best comparison that could be made from the last few seasons for a sophomore season would be Price doing the business that Henrik Lundqvist did in the Big Apple, where he took the town by storm in his second year and has now become one of the premier goalies in the league after only three seasons.

Yes, I'll admit it. I'm building this kid up quite high, but despite his brief stint in the minors last year, the Habs have a lot of faith in Price and I believe it will be hard to think any different. If Price is going to get the number one goalie type of starts, then the jinx should be an afterthought by the second month of the season.

With the preparations that a lot of the young kids are taking in the summer and youth camps with their teams, the likelihood of sophomore jinxs are becoming fewer and far between, especially when it comes to pool-type players for poolies to examine. We were blessed with a large crop of rookies that broke through last season, but it may be a little while until we see a class like that again, but the future is as unpredictable as the lottery numbers. The sophomore class has plenty of potential and it looks positive that they'll manage to skip over the jinx, but don't be overzealous when it comes to bumping their value up come draft day. A lot of times, it's a winning formula to go with a lot of the safer veterans that can avoid injury than it is rolling the dice with youth.