Pool Outlook for Ottawa

Calling the Ottawa Senators a 'dumpster fire' is a disservice to all dumpster fires everywhere.  The on-ice performances to the off-ice drama, there is not a whole lot redeeming about these Senators and a rebuild is well underway, but now it's all a matter of meticulous planning and patience, to see if ownership's plan of being competitive again within a few years can come to fruition.

Without trying to focus on the off-ice troubles too much, the Ottawa Senators are not in the worst situation on the ice, but it just looked really bad at the end of the year and that's where the focus usually is... "what have you done for me lately?"

What the Senators management has done in the last season and a bit is acquire a number of key assets, young players and they have been busy working out other deals, to try and turn this ship around in the time frame that ownership is looking for, being competitive in the next three or four years.  That isn't going to do them a fat lot of good with the impatience of a Canadian market, but they are following the lead of a couple of other teams that has been able to maintain the course and start to see results.  The trick will be to not let the market push them around.

Yes, the 2019 season was not good, finishing last overall in the NHL is never ideal, especially when there is a lottery to decide the fate of the first three picks in the entry draft.  But the Senators don't have to worry about that this year, since they dealt their pick to Colorado in the deal that brought Matt Duchene to town for his limited stay.

I think it's all fair to say that those of us who are familiar with the World Juniors or just the junior system in Canada saw Thomas Chabot coming from a mile away.  Now whether or not we all saw him to the point where he would be leading the Senators in his sophomore season, that's another story altogether.  Yes, Chabot was the top Senators scorer in the hockey pool this season, finishing with 14 goals and 55 points in 70 games this season and that had him ranked 10th among all defensemen in scoring.  It would have been good to see what he would have done with a full 82-game slate, but I think there's plenty of time to see what will happen there.  The Senators are certainly in good hands in the post-Karlsson era.

In total, the Senators had 11 players who were deemed pool worthy in the 2019 season, which isn't a terrible number, considering they dealt away a number of worthy players at the deadline and still finished in the double-digits.  Up front, Chris Tierney, Brady Tkachuk, Bobby Ryan, Colin White, Mikkel Boedker and Anthony Duclair all finished among the top 200 forwards in scoring, two of which were rookies this season (Tkachuk and White).  Joining Chabot on the blueline for worthiness, Cody Ceci and Dylan Demelo, both finishing in the top 100 of blueliners this year.  Finally, in net, the team didn't fare too badly with either Craig Anderson or Anders Nilsson, Anderson was 31st and Nilsson was 45th among goalies this season, which gives them upside, despite the turmoil.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

Around this past trade deadline, with the rumours of Erik Karlsson getting traded away, I was saying that the Senators were not that bad of a team on paper and luck just wasn't going their way in the season. I still stand by that today and if you look at this team on paper, once you add Stone and Ceci back into the mix, the Senators have plenty to compete with and they should be better than they are. Still, it's about recent results and that may be what sets this team off on a different course, one that likely won't bring positive results. If this team stays the course, looks to re-sign Karlsson to an extension, gets Stone and Ceci under decent deals, adds some youth... I like their chances at a return to the playoffs. Otherwise, all hell will break loose and heads will roll.

Fire and brimstone rained down upon the City of Ottawa this past hockey season and hell broke loose.  They managed to trade Erik Karlsson away, but the return was only mildly effective.  The Senators managed to re-sign Mark Stone for this past season, but it wasn't going to go further than that and he was dealt to Vegas in a rebuilding deal.  Cody Ceci is still kicking around and could still be a part of the solution, but he'll need a new deal again and that could be a tough slog.  Nevertheless, their season was horrible and the full rebuild is on.

How did my intriguing or breakout player fare?

Well, picking Thomas Chabot at the beginning of the season to be the breakout guy was obviously the right move and he helped one team in the hockey pool to a money spot at the end of the year.  Chabot is going to be leaned on quite heavily, while a couple of the team's young players comes around and matures into regular everyday defensemen.

2020 Pool Outlook

Forwards	Cap	Defense	Cap	Goalies	Cap
Bobby Ryan	7.250	Mark Borowiecki	1.200	Craig Anderson	4.750
Marian Gaborik	4.875	Dylan Demelo	0.900	Mike Condon	2.400
Clarke MacArthur	4.650	Erik Brannstrom	0.894
Mikkel Boedker	4.000	Thomas Chabot	0.863
Zack Smith	3.250	Christian Jaros	0.755
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	3.100	Ben Harpur	0.725
Chris Tierney	2.938	Maxime Lajoie	0.710
Brady Tkachuk	0.925
Max Veronneau	0.925
Logan Brown	0.863
Rudolfs Balcers	0.759
Alex Formenton	0.753
Vitali Abramov	0.745
Drake Batherson	0.737
Filip Chlapik	0.728

I don't think there is enough here for next season to be much better, as a team, but as a bunch of individuals putting numbers up on the board and being pool worthy, there'still some promise there.  Of course, they'll need to tackle free agency efficiently to get some of those worthy players that are missing back on this list, but it's certainly coming.  You might be able to find some bargain pool picks here next season, if you're paying attention.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

First things first... the Senators will have to spend some money this summer, if they want to get over the salary cap floor, since they don't have a whole lot up in the table up there to get them there, except for the two players in red, who are injured and will have to count against the cap to help them out next season.

Restricted free agency will be the key for the Senators and they will need some of these guys to buy in, like Colin White, Anthony Duclair and/or Cody Ceci.  These three are the key RFA's this summer and all of which seemingly have good roles with the team, that includes some ice-time.

At the unrestricted level, goaltender Anders Nilsson is the only one that will really get a long look and I would imagine that he earned himself a new deal with the Sens, given his results since joining the team at the deadline from Vancouver.

The Ottawa Senators rebuild got off to a rocking start and I don't think there is much denying that, despite the nonsense that has gone on with the rest of their club.  If you can look beyond the dumpster fire and the circus, the Sens will have some players to watch next season.  Forwards Alex Formenton and Drake Batherson should get some long looks at camp and defenseman Erik Brannstrom finished this season on the shelf with an injury, but his smooth skating will earn him a roster spot, undoubtedly, right out of the gate.  These three might need a little experience to fine tune their games, but it's coming.

Needs at the 2019 Entry Draft

It's the bane of the Ottawa fan base this summer, that the Senators don't have their 1st round pick this year.  The Colorado Avalanche have their logo attached to their pick this season, but on the plus side, the Senators lost the lottery and fell down to the 4th overall selection, meaning the Avalanche won't be getting one of the top prospects in the draft, but they'll still be getting a pretty good player, in theory.  The Avalanche have lots in the pipe, so the best player available sounds very reasonable for them, possibly someone with some versatility like Dylan Cozens of the Lethbridge Hurricanes, who is listed as a centre and a winger.  Can't have too many versatile players.

The Senators do have a 1st round pick, Columbus' from the Duchene deal at the deadline, but we won't have a pick for them until we know where exactly they will select.

With everything being said, the Senators haven't exactly forecasted themselves for greater things in the 2020 season, but there is certainly some potential for some exciting hockey to come out of Ottawa next season.  Now, translating exciting hockey into competitive hockey is one thing, but this team got through a lot of drama in 2019 and that may see a dip in drama for next season, which may allow for a lot of these kids to play and play well.  I don't see this team being mature enough to clinch any sort of playoff spot, but they will certainly make some noise next year and maybe, just maybe, their rebuild will reflect what the ownership suggested at the beginning of this past season.

Weekend Preview (Apr 6)

Welcome to the final day of the regular season!

What is really left to play for?  Well, there's jockeying to be done in the NHL playoff races, as the Jackets did clinch the final spot in the Eastern Conference last night, so now we just try to figure out who is playing where in a few cases.

The biggest story in the hockey pool, which is a horrible long shot, but it's all we got... can anyone catch Kristy & Don for 3rd place?  Jesse starts the day 17 points back and now we're heavy into the healthy scratch territory and it's not going to be pretty.

The weekly scoring honours are still up for grabs, for whatever they're worth.  Stuart has the lead in the Mover & Shaker at the start of play today with 26 points, 6 points back has five teams in the race, at least.  Troy's team has the caboose this week with 6 points, 7 points has nine teams in vying for the final title of the season.

Everything gets started at 11am MT and there are the maximum allowable amount of games in the league today, so there's lots to cover.  Let's get this party started.  Is this why I can't sleep at 3am?  Doubtful, but it's helping with the prep.

Louis Domingue (Eric) versus Tuukka Rask (Jesse)
There's nothing to be decided in Boston, when the Lightning visit the Bruins, both have clinched home-ice in the opening round and if these two meet in the next round, Tampa would have home-ice, thanks to being the best team in the regular season by a country mile.  This could just be one ugly stare down that has no real vigor to the game.  Both teams will likely save it all for when the games really matter.

The Bruins coaching staff did confirm that Tuukka Rask will get the nod for the Bruins this morning/afternoon, which is certainly to the delight of Jesse's team, which you'll get your fill of his name in this post, racing for 3rd place.  The Lightning had yet to confirm, but if I had to lean one way more than the other, I would think that Louis Domingue gets the start in the finale, just to save their number one on that extra push for nothing.  Eric's team is still vying for a top 10 spot and he may sneak a start from under Dale C., the team he's chasing for that spot.

The goaltending is the only mention of the 3rd place race in this early game, but the race will be prominent in this post, right around this same spot in every game.

Jacob Markstrom (Chelsea) versus Jordan Binnington (N/A)
The St. Louis Blues can put some pressure on their Central Division foes for top spot in the division with a win over the Vancouver Canucks in one of the two early afternoon games.  The Blues start the day in 3rd, but could go 1st with a win in any fashion.  If Winnipeg or Nashville get at least a point in their respective games, the Blues don't have the tie-breaks to stay up though, so they'll need a lot of help to win the division today.

The Blues confirmed that they will be going with their rookie wonderkid in this game against the Canucks, which is of no help to the hockey pool, while the Canucks had yet to confirm early on this morning, but the lean is towards one more start for Jacob Markstrom, which would give Chelsea her first start of the day, in theory.  There's not a lot in this one for the hockey pool, so we'll try not to dwell in it too much from the goaltending perspective.

As for the 3rd place race, also nothing.  The Blue have the storyline here and the 2pm MT start will likely move along with the wind, just breezing on by.

Frederik Andersen (Wilton) versus Charlie Lindgren (N/A)
It will be Bob Cole's last game on Hockey Night in Canada and he gets to call the classic rivalry between the Leafs and the Canadiens.  I'm sure everyone would have preferred this game to mean something, but it doesn't.  The Leafs are in and the Habs are out and that's about that.

Surprisingly, no Carey Price for the Canadiens in the finale at home tonight, as Charlie Lindgren, who has been sitting around as the team's number three for the last few weeks, will draw into the start against the Leafs, a likely reward for his patience this year.  Frederik Andersen will indeed get the start for the Leafs, as he looks to stay sharp heading into the playoffs.  Wilton's team sits 9th after some big gains in the third segment and looks to finish strong in the top 10.

Garret Sparks will not be backing up Andersen tonight, as he was given a 10-day sabbatical away from the team in the late part of the week, as the Leafs called up Michael Hutchinson to take his place, likely into the playoffs.  Sparks has really lost his confidence and needed the time away.  This wasn't going to be a scheduled start for him anyways, so Grant doesn't really lose out here.

Leafs defenseman Ron Hainsey also won't be going tonight for the Leafs, he'll be a scratch for some rest tonight, joining Jake Muzzin who has missed the last couple games due to illness.  Both Hainsey and Muzzin are on Neil's team this year and are only hanging on to 7th place by the tie-breaker and two games being removed.  This is not an ideal situation for his team.

In the 3rd place race, Kristy & Don have some stock here with Max Domi, he's still expected to dress and play in the finale.

Joonas Korpisalo (N/A) versus Craig Anderson (Mike)
The best the Columbus Blue Jackets can finish is the top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, which would need either 2 points and a Carolina loss in any fashion or 1 point and a Carolina regulation loss.  The Jackets get the lowly Sens to finish, so that should really put the pressure on Carolina to win and not have to face the Lightning in round one.

Craig Anderson was in the starter's net for the Senators at the morning skate, which likely means he'll get the nod for the home side in their finale of the season.  Mike's team starts 8 points back of Benson's team in 20th place today and could be the only pool goalie going tonight, as the Jackets did play last night and likely will go with Joonas Korpisalo.

The early indications this morning suggest that Bobby Ryan will get a twirl in the last game of the regular season tonight, giving one more skater game to Jeremy's 19th place team.

In the 3rd place race, Matt Duchene will be Jesse's representation tonight, while Thomas Chabot appears to be the only guy going for the duo tonight, if the goaltending match-up is what it says above.  That would divide the game evenly between sides and both have been quite good for their respective pool teams.  A barn-burner would be a fun one to watch here.

Carter Hutton (Wes) versus Jimmy Howard (Tony)
In the overall standings, the Sabres sit 28th and the Red Wings sit 27th, both tied at 74 points and the Wings edging in the ROW column, 29-27.  Loser of this game gets 28th spot and increased draft odds, so maybe defense won't be the order of the game?

Carter Hutton and Jimmy Howard may be subject to a lot of shots on goal and could you possibly blame either of them if they only mailed in their effort, given the situation?  Wes and Tony are sure hoping their goalie doesn't mail it in, they'd rather have the 2 points and they don't care where either of these two teams draft.  That's just the long and short of it all.

Both teams in the 3rd place race are betting on the Red Wings tonight, as Jesse has both Andreas Athanasiou and Niklas Kronwall going, while the duo should have Anthony Mantha going as well.  Mantha has been the hottest of the three players in this group, which is good news for the duo to keep their spot free and clear of any intruders.

Mackenzie Blackwood (N/A) versus Roberto Luongo (John P.)
It's a nothing game in Florida tonight, when the Devils and the Panthers face-off.  Well, it may not exactly be nothing, but losing this game means that there's a chance that either the Devils or the Panthers' lottery odds will improve, depending on a bunch of other results, but it's only marginal improvement and almost not worth thinking about.

John P.'s team is the only one of the two locked in with a hockey pool start here and there's a good possibility he gets two starts as well.  John is eyeing up that last Mover & Shaker nod and a couple of wins would have him snug as a bug in a rug in that race, so maybe the Panthers can do him some good with a win for the home fans tonight.  Roberto Luongo will get the nod for both teams tonight to do that.

In the race for 3rd place, Kristy & Don have Nico Hischier in this game and I would imagine he goes to get that valuable experience in his sophomore year.  46 points in 68 games this season, he has been okay for a sub-par team like the Devils this year.

Petr Mrazek (Stacey C.) versus Carter Hart (Jeremy)
The Hurricanes do have an extra little bit of incentive today, as they could finish as high as 3rd in the Metro with a win today and a regulation loss from the Penguins or as explained earlier, they could finish in the last wild card spot in the east as well, if the results don't go their way.  The games in question for the Hurricanes all get started at the same time, so there will be plenty of scoreboard watching among them.

The Flyers laid out their goaltending plans early on in the week and Carter Hart was the one tapped for the season finale at home, giving Jeremy the first of two possible starts tonight.  Nor the Flyers or Jeremy's team has much to play for tonight, but those points would just look good in their column.  The Hurricanes had yet to confirm this morning, but with moving up on their mind, it seems very likely that Petr Mrazek gets the nod, which would aid Stacey C.'s attempt at moving into the Mover & Shaker spot this week. This appears to be his only start of the day, looking down the line.

The duo have some stock in this game, Carolina defenseman Dougie Hamilton features on their team and could feature in this game as well, if the Hurricanes put on a scoring display.  Hamilton has been slowly finding the scoresheet more and more in the late part of the season.

Alexandar Georgiev (N/A) versus Matt Murray (Scott)
The Pittsburgh Penguins need at least a point to finish 3rd in the Metro Division, but a regulation win and a regulation loss by the Islanders, another 5pm MT start, could see them as high as 2nd in the Metro and home-ice against those same Islanders.  A regulation loss by the Pens and a win for the Hurricanes would then see the Crosby versus Ovechkin playoff match-up we've all come to enjoy.  What are you hoping for?

This could have been an all-Scott match-up in Pittsburgh tonight, but it sounds like Henrik Lundqvist has conceded the net to his rookie counterpart, giving Alexandar Georgiev the net for the finale, taking precious minutes away from the hockey pool on the last day.  Matt Murray does indeed give Scott at least one start tonight, going for the Penguins.  Scott's team is going to need all the help it can get to make it out of 25th before the final buzzer, starting the day, 5 points back.

No love in the 3rd place race in this game, neither the duo or Jesse have any players going in Pittsburgh tonight.

Robin Lehner (Chelsea) versus Pheonix Copley (Brian)
The last of the 5pm MT start games sees the Islanders take on the Capitals in Washington and they need a point to clinch home-ice against 3rd place in the Metro, whoever finishes there, Pittsburgh or Carolina.  The Capitals already have top spot locked up and will cruise this game and into the playoffs with their opening round opponent to be decided today.

After the morning skate, the teams appeared to have both of their goalies locked in for the night, bot Chelsea and Brian are getting a start in this game, thanks to Robin Lehner and Pheonix Copley getting tapped for this one.  Neither team has fared particularly well this week in the scoring race either and neither will want to be in the Basement Dweller nod, so this will another opportunity for points from the crease.

If the morning skate is any indication, it looks like the Capitals will be resting some players tonight, namely Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and John Carlson.  This means no skater games for Steve, Tony and John P. in the Capitals' finale.  For the Islanders, Valtteri Filppula will make his return from a hyper-extended elbow tonight, returning for Neil's team in a race for 7th place, where he desperately needs the bodies after the scratches for the Leafs.

Alex Ovechkin and Jake Vrana are expected to play for the Capitals tonight, which is good news for Jesse's team, while Ryan Pulock and Anthony Beauvillier were both in line rushes for the Islanders this morning, both expected to go for the duo tonight.  The split becomes pretty easy, Jesse looking for a very lopsided victory from the home side tonight.

Cam Ward (N/A) versus Pekka Rinne (John P.)
The Nashville Predators are the outright favourites to win the division, having the 1 point lead heading into action today, so a win in any fashion against the Blackhawks will seal the deal and then the Jets will be playing for 2nd place, depending on the Blues' result.  Otherwise, 1 point gives Winnipeg a shot and a regulation loss blows open the door.  Very interesting.

The Blackhawks played last night and lost Corey Crawford to a groin injury, so Cam Ward will be playing on back-to-back nights, shortly after getting the win against the Stars the night before.  It hasn't been confirmed, but with the Predators looking to clinch the division title, it does seem rather likely that they will go with Pekka Rinne with a few days before the playoffs start.  If they can ensure a better match-up, I would imagine they would.  I wouldn't be surprised, however, if they did go with Juuse Saros, just because the Blackhawks did play last night and they are a non-playoff team.

Each team in the 3rd place race has some stock in this one, Jesse has Jonathan Toews for the Blackhawks, while the duo has Ryan Ellis for the Predators.  So, I guess we know where their allegiances lie in this game tonight, eh?

Alex Stalock (Ryan) versus Ben Bishop (Clayton)
The wild card spots in the Western Conference also need to be settled today and the Dallas Stars could do that before their division rivals in the same boat faceoff, as they will play the Wild for the top wild card spot and the chance to play the Central Division winner instead of the Calgary Flames in the opening round.  Pick your poison, right?  The Stars need 1 point to take the top wild card or else they open the door for the Avs to swoop in and possibly take it in the last game of the year.

One confirmation for the goalies this morning and it comes from the visiting Wild, as they will go with Alex Stalock for their finale, seeing as though he didn't have a lot of ice-time in games this season and the Wild don't have any stock left in this season.  It's a good move for this team and for Ryan's team, which starts 13th, 8 points back of 10th.  There have been some rumblings that Ben Bishop will be ready to start this game tonight, coming back from another stint on the injured list with a lower-body injury.  Both Wes and Clayton's teams are dangerously close to the Basement Dweller nod this week and they both are looking for points to keep out of that lowly position and this match-up might just give them their chances.

Jesse has Stars rookie defenseman Miro Heiskanen going in this game today, who has played in all 81 games to this point, so I would fully expect him to dress for #82 as well.  33 points in 81 games is a solid rookie campaign from the back end.

Connor Hellebuyck (Jeremy) versus Calvin Pickard (N/A)
The Jets and Coyotes have an 8pm MT start, two hours after the Predators get started, so they might have a good idea of what's at stake for their game, before they even faceoff against the city predecessors in the desert.  If the Predators don't come away with 2 points against Chicago, the Jets need 2 points to win the Central or else they play the Blues and the results today decide where they open up the series.

The Jets goaltending had yet to be confirmed, but with the division on the line, it does seem rather appropriate that Connor Hellebuyck gets the nod in this post, at least.  The Jets will want to finish off the season strong, since they haven't necessarily been playing all that well of late, 4-5-1 in their last 10 games.  The Coyotes, on the other hand, don't have much to play for, so they are rewarding Calvin Pickard for his service with the last start of the season, confirmed.

The 3rd place race has no stock in this game, so we'll quickly move on from this one and into the rest of the late games.

Mikko Koskinen (Tony) versus Mike Smith (Brian)
Well, if the Oilers have anything left to play for this season, it's taking one away from their provincial nemesis, the Flames, before they see their Alberta rivals head to the playoffs.  The Oilers could also play for Leon Draisaitl, who sits on 49 goals at the start of play tonight, only 2 goals back of the league lead and the Rocket Richard Trophy.  That's something too.

In practice on Friday, it looked like Mike Smith was getting the nod for the Flames, as he was in the starter's net, so Brian should be getting this start.  Tony's team will likely see the Oilers' season out with one last start from Mikko Koskinen, who had the night off in their last game and they'll want that win over the Flames, I'm sure.

We're not sure how the scratches will play out in this game, as there is a chance for some nastiness and the Oilers really playing spoiler to the Flames' chances, if Calgary isn't careful.  That could impact the 2nd place race, as Kristy & Don do have Elias Lindholm on their side and he was a scratch earlier in the week... do they dare risk him tonight?

Marc-Andre Fleury (Troy) versus Jonathan Quick (Brenda & Seward)
The Golden Knights are visiting the Kings to finish off the regular season and this game doesn't have a lot of play in the standings tonight either.  The Kings could move up to 29th overall in the standings, if the Devils lose and the Kings win, in the most simple of terms, which would mean their chances at the draft lottery could take a good kicking, but that won't stop them from letting Jonathan Quick play out the last home game tonight.  There are some out there that believe that this could be his last game in a Kings uniform.

The Golden Knights haven't confirmed their goalie yet this morning, but they have been unafraid at letting Marc-Andre Fleury go overboard this year and since he's still shaking off the rust from a late season injury, I would have to think they plop him back out there and continue to shake off that rust.  It seems most likely, really.

There's definitely some play in the 3rd place race here in this game, as the duo will have both Jonathan Marchessault and Cody Eakin as possibilities for the lineup for Vegas, while Jesse should have Dustin Brown in the finale for the Kings tonight.

Philipp Grubauer (Jesse) versus Martin Jones (Brenda & Seward)
Yes, depending on how the Stars do earlier in the evening, the Avalanche may have something to play for.  I don't think either team really wants to play the Flames in the opening round, but if the Stars fail to pick up a point against the Wild, the Avalanche could upset the Sharks with a win and jump up a spot to play the Central winner.  It's all so very exciting.

We're just spitballin' here on the goalie match-up for this one, since this post is so early and this game is so late, but if the Avalanche still have a chance at moving up, they will likely go back to Philipp Grubauer tonight, since he has won the confidence of this group.  Jesse is hoping that his team is within 2 points of 3rd place at the time, just so that win can mean something.  Aaron Dell got the call for the Sharks in their last game and I don't see them letting Martin Jones go flat ahead of the playoffs, so I would imagine he gets the last home game of the regular season, giving the duo a second start on the night.

Both Jesse and Kristy & Don have skater stock in this game too, so what Jesse is looking for is an avalanche of points from Colorado, seeing as though he has Gabriel Landeskog and Tyson Barrie as well.  He also has Marc-Edouard Vlasic on the home side, but the duo have Gustav Nyquist too.  Wouldn't it be neat if 3rd place came down to this game?