Projected Top Six Defenses

I've got some time this afternoon, I thought I would have a look at the current projections for top six defensemen in the league, just for shits and giggles. I was curious, thought I would look at a number of elements and compare by division. The elements that I've decided to look at are scoring, experience (age), future potential, size and cap value (descending order).  The only non-measurable element that I have of the five is potential, but in my mind, that takes what their youth looks like in this top six and ranks it objectively (if possible).

To qualify for the projected top six, the players do have to be signed, which does leave a few names out in the cold, but this is by no means scientific.  It's just a comparison, giving myself (and whoever decides to read this) an idea about what's going on.

Andy Greene	Andrew MacDonald	Dan Girardi	Matt Carle	Kris Letang
Henrik Tallinder	Travis Hamonic	Marc Staal	Kimmo Timonen	Paul Martin
Mark Fayne	Milan Jurcina	Micheal Sauer	Andrej Meszaros	Zbynek Michalek
Anton Volchenkov	Mark Eaton	Michael Del Zotto	Chris Pronger	Ben Lovejoy
Matt Corrente	Mike Mottau	Ryan McDonagh	Braydon Coburn	Brooks Orpik
Adam Larsson	Mark Streit	Steve Eminger	Andreas Lilja	Matt Niskanen

2011 Scoring: PHI, PIT, NYR, NYI, NJD
Experience: PHI, NYI, PIT, NJD, NYR
Potential: NYR, NJD, NYI, PIT, PHI
Size: PHI, NYR, NYI, NJD, PIT
Cap Value: PHI, PIT, NJD, NYR, NYI

The projected top six defense corps in the Atlantic Division looks fairly dominated by the Flyers, as they have some great scoring numbers from last season, all kinds of experience from top to bottom, massive size and inevitably, cost the most.  The Penguins do have plenty of offense in their six, not to mention some decent experience and they cashed in last Summer, which would suggest that they have a shot at doing some great things.  The Rangers are the wild card of the five, to me, as Del Zotto and McDonagh have the potential to really put their six into the spotlight.  They might not have the experience, but they have the potential to lift their scoring to great heights, all for a reasonable cap hit.

Zdeno Chara	Christian Ehrhoff	P.K. Subban	Erik Karlsson	John-Michael Liles
Joe Corvo	Tyler Myers	Jaroslav Spacek	Sergei Gonchar	Dion Phaneuf
Dennis Seidenberg	Jordan Leopold	Yannick Weber	Filip Kuba	Cody Franson
Johnny Boychuk	Andrej Sekera	Hal Gill	Chris Phillips	Carl Gunnarsson
Andrew Ference	Mike Weber	Josh Gorges	Mark Carkner	Mike Komisarek
Adam McQuaid	Robyn Regehr	Andrei Markov	Brian Lee	Keith Aulie

2011 Scoring: BUF, BOS, TOR, OTT, MTL
Experience: BOS, OTT, MTL, BUF, TOR
Potential: TOR, MTL, BUF, BOS, OTT
Size: BOS, TOR, BUF, OTT, MTL
Cap Value: TOR, BOS, MTL, BUF, OTT

The Northeast Division has a very good blueline battle on their hands, pretty well across the board.  The Sabres bought a lot of talent in the off-season, the Bruins swapped out some pieces, the Canadiens are still reeling from their injuries last year, the Leafs have the potential to start scoring back there, while the Sens are still growing into a new identity.  The Bruins and Sabres will lock up into some great battles, but the Canadiens could shoot past with a healthy Markov, while the Leafs can play the wild card, especially if Franson and Aulie turn up trumps with their potential.

Tomas Kaberle	Brian Campbell	Brett Clark	Dennis Wideman	Dustin Byfuglien
Joni Pitkanen	Dimitri Kulikov	Victor Hedman	John Carlson	Tobias Enstrom
Jamie McBain	Ed Jovanovski	Pavel Kubina	Roman Hamrlik	Ron Hainsey
Bryan Allen	Mike Weaver	Eric Brewer	Mike Green	Johnny Oduya
Tim Gleason	Keaton Ellerby	M-A Bergeron	Karl Alzner	Randy Jones
Jay Harrison	Erik Gudbranson	Mattias Ohlund	Jeff Schultz	Mark Stuart

2011 Scoring: WPG, WAS, CAR, FLA, TAM
Experience: TAM, WPG, CAR, FLA, WAS
Potential: WAS, FLA, WPG, TAM, CAR
Size: TAM, WAS, CAR, WPG, FLA
Cap Value: WPG, WAS, TAM, CAR, FLA

The Southeast Division hasn't necessarily been known for their defensive prowess, more so their offensive skills, in the past few seasons.  The Jets will come into the 2012 season, boasting a very offensive top six with Byfuglien and Enstrom leading the way.  Passed those two, the team may want to hold on for dear life.  The Capitals, with a healthy Green on their side, should move back up into the top spot in the blueline scoring this coming season, especially with the addition of Hamrlik to the side.  The Panthers are definitely the wild card of this division, adding players via trades and free agency, plus the potential of Gudbranson is currently off the charts.  Tampa is getting older, not so much savvier, while Carolina will play hard, but something is lacking, I can't quite put my finger on it now.

Brent Seabrook	James Wisniewski	Nicklas Lidstrom	Ryan Suter	Alex Pietrangelo
Duncan Keith	Fedor Tyutin	Niklas Kronwall	Kevin Klein	Kevin Shattenkirk
Steve Montador	Kris Russell	Ian White	Francis Bouillon	Carlo Colaiacovo
Sean O'Donnell	Grant Clitsome	Brad Stuart	Brett Lebda	Barret Jackman
Sami Lepisto	Radek Martinek	Jonathan Ericsson	Jonathan Blum	Roman Polak
Nik Hjalmarsson	Marc Methot	Mike Commodore	Tyler Sloan	Kent Huskins

2011 Scoring: DET, CHI, CBJ, STL, NAS
Experience: DET, CHI, NAS, CBJ, STL
Potential: STL, NAS, CBJ, DET, CHI
Size: CHI, CBJ, STL, DET, NAS
Cap Value: DET, CHI, CBJ, STL, NAS

The Red Wings and Blackhawks are really running away with this competition in the Central Division, especially with the arbitration hearing of Shea Weber to happen on Tuesday for the Predators. Even Weber's numbers won't help the Predators too much in some cases, except for possibly size and cap value.  The depth in Chicago and Detroit are hard to match in this division, while the Blues have all the potential in Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk on their side, not to mention a still-growing Polak.  The Jackets may have added some help, but Wisniewski can still be a bit wild, unsure if he'll really be able to help in Columbus, unless he gets some good help of his own.

Marc Giordano	Erik Johnson	Ryan Whitney	Marek Zidlicky	Alex Edler
Anton Babchuk	Jan Hejda	Tom Gilbert	Nick Schultz	Dan Hamhuis
Jay Bouwmeester	Ryan Wilson	Theo Peckham	Jared Spurgeon	Kevin Bieksa
Cory Sarich	Matt Hunwick	Ladislav Smid	Mike Lundin	Sami Salo
Chris Butler	Ryan O'Byrne	Cam Barker	Clayton Stoner	Keith Ballard
Brendan Mikkelson	Shane O'Brien	Jeff Petry	Greg Zanon	Aaron Rome

2011 Scoring: CAL, VAN, COL, EDM, MIN
Experience: VAN, MIN, CAL, COL, EDM
Potential: EDM, COL, CAL, MIN, VAN
Size: COL, EDM, VAN, CAL, MIN
Cap Value: VAN, CAL, EDM, COL, MIN

With the defense sorted top to bottom by their 2011 scoring numbers, this list from the Northwest Division looks somewhat misshapen.  This division should look a little bit more dominating, but the names and the order in which they appear doesn't look all that formidable.  The Flames ran away with scoring among their six, since their six stayed healthiest throughout the year, which helps, especially for fantasy pools.  The Canucks used 13 defensemen all year in 2011, plus they lost Christian Ehrhoff to free agency, which didn't help.  The Avalanche gained some serious size, but also took on some liabilities while they were at it.  The Oilers didn't add much to their blueline for the coming year, which could hurt, while the Wild look mediocre below Zidlicky.  The systems will be important in this division, as no one really seems too far ahead, unless four of the teams were ahead of Minnesota.

Lubomir Visnovsky	Alex Goligoski	Jack Johnson	Keith Yandle	Dan Boyle
Cam Fowler	Stephane Robidas	Alec Martinez	Adrian Aucoin	Brent Burns
Toni Lydman	Trevor Daley	Rob Scuderi	Michal Rozsival	Jason Demers
Kurtis Foster	Niklas Grossman	Matt Greene	Derek Morris	Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Francois Beauchemin	Adam Pardy	Willie Mitchell	David Schlemko	Jim Vandermeer
Luca Sbisa	Sheldon Souray	Davis Drewiske	Rostislav Klesla	Doug Murray

2011 Scoring: ANA, SAN, PHO, DAL, LOS
Experience: PHO, DAL, SAN, LOS, ANA
Potential: ANA, DAL, LOS, PHO, SAN
Size: LOS, SAN, PHO, DAL, ANA
Cap Value: PHO, SAN, ANA, LOS, DAL

There is a lot of blueline talent in the Pacific Division and we are still waiting for Drew Doughty to join this list for the Kings, as he is still an unsigned restricted free agent defenseman.  The Ducks are stacked with scoring, the Sharks are not too far behind, the Coyotes have lots of experience, the Kings are pretty big and the Stars could have a nice wild card with Souray in their line-up, come October.  With the addition (and subsequent extension) of Burns to the Sharks line-up for the coming year, I would say that they would have to have the most dangerous six defenders of the five teams, which could put them over the top when the playoffs roll around again.  They will be a ripe team to pick from for the hockey pools, I expect most of them to fly off the lists.

Top five teams in each measurement...
2011 Scoring: BUF, ANA, DET, SAN, CHI
Experience: DET, PHI, PHO, TAM, BOS
Potential: ANA, STL, NYR, WAS, FLA
Size: COL, EDM, TOR, CAL, BUF
Cap Value: PHI, DET, WPG, VAN, CHI

Changes in My Top Sixes

Like I said previous to when I did up each individual division the first time, these are not meant to represent the best players, just sorted by points scored in the 2011 season. I will likely change my representation of these teams further down the line, but this is only for comparison purposes, reflecting some of the changes made in free agency through two and a half days.

Plus, it gives me a chance to start using some of the new logo treatments for each team.  Today, it's the alternate logos, some of them really suck, but that's not my fault, it's all those teams gave me.

Patrik Elias	John Tavares	Brad Richards	Claude Giroux	Sidney Crosby
Ilya Kovalchuk	Matt Moulson	Marian Gaborik	Daniel Briere	Chris Kunitz
Travis Zajac	PA Parenteau	Derek Stepan	Scott Hartnell	James Neal
Andy Greene	Andrew MacDonald	Dan Girardi	Matt Carle	Kris Letang
Henrik Tallinder	Travis Hamonic	Marc Staal	Kimmo Timonen	Paul Martin
Martin Brodeur	Al Montoya	Henrik Lundqvist	Ilya Bryzgalov	Marc-Andre Fleury

Only a couple of changes in the Atlantic Division, the Rangers made the biggest upgrade, getting that centre that they need for their superstar snipers. Brad Richards is a massive help, but I'm not certain that he is enough to push the Rangers into the top two of the division just yet. I still have the Rangers in at number three. The Devils improved their top two defense by re-signing Andy Greene, but they still rank number four to me.

Milan Lucic	Thomas Vanek	Tomas Plekanec	Jason Spezza	Phil Kessel
David Krejci	Brad Boyes	Erik Cole	Nick Foligno	Mikhail Grabovski
Patrice Bergeron	Ville Leino	Mike Cammalleri	Milan Michalek	Nikolai Kulemin
Zdeno Chara	Christian Ehrhoff	P.K. Subban	Erik Karlsson	John-Michael Liles
Dennis Seidenberg	Tyler Myers	Jaroslav Spacek	Sergei Gonchar	Dion Phaneuf
Tim Thomas	Ryan Miller	Carey Price	Craig Anderson	James Reimer

The Sabres made a couple of improvements, while the Canadiens added some size up front... is it enough for a swap in positions in the standings? Not quite. I had the Canadiens in front of the Sabres in my last post and I think Cole is a much better addition to the Habs than Leino is to the Sabres today. Ehrhoff doesn't seem to upgrade enough over Leopold to put them over the top either.

Eric Staal	Stephen Weiss	Martin St. Louis	Alex Ovechkin	Bryan Little
Jeff Skinner	Kris Versteeg	Vincent Lecavalier	Nicklas Backstrom	Evander Kane
Tuomo Ruutu	Tomas Kopecky	Ryan Malone	Alex Semin	Nikolai Antropov
Joe Corvo	Brian Campbell	Brett Clark	Dennis Wideman	Dustin Byfuglien
Joni Pitkanen	Dimitri Kulikov	Victor Hedman	John Carlson	Tobias Enstrom
Cam Ward	Jose Theodore	Dwayne Roloson	Michal Neuvirth	Ondrej Pavelec

The Panthers were the team making the biggest splashes in the pool in the first couple days of signing, but their top six only really improved their goaltending and that was a marginal increase at best as well. Theodore over Clemmensen doesn't sound like much right now, maybe when Theodore starts reaping all that ice-time. The Lightning made a pretty big boost, because now they actually have a goaltender in their spot, so they will move up in my projected standings.

Now the Southeast looks a little bit more like this... Washington, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Florida and Winnipeg. Yes, Florida moved past Winnipeg, Versteeg looks better on the list than Antropov.

Jonathan Toews	Jeff Carter	Henrik Zetterberg	Martin Erat	David Backes
Patrick Kane	Rick Nash	Pavel Datsyuk	Patric Hornqvist	Chris Stewart
Patrick Sharp	R.J. Umberger	Johan Franzen	David Legwand	Patrik Berglund
Duncan Keith	James Wisniewski	Nicklas Lidstrom	Ryan Suter	Alex Pietrangelo
Brent Seabrook	Fedor Tyutin	Niklas Kronwall	Kevin Klein	Kevin Shattenkirk
Corey Crawford	Steve Mason	Jimmy Howard	Pekka Rinne	Jaroslav Halak

Only a blueline shift in the Central Division, one upgraded, the other downgraded... and yes, I think it makes a difference. The Blue Jackets won the Wisniewski sweepstakes by acquiring him before free agency started, while the Predators traded away Cody Franson on Sunday, taking him off the list (not like he was going to last on it, regardless).

As of today, it does make a difference, as my Central looks like this... Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, St. Louis and Nashvile, the Predators dropping two spots from a week ago.  Look for a bounce back up the standings when Weber is signed.

Jarome Iginla	Matt Duchene	Ryan Smyth	Martin Havlat	Daniel Sedin
Alex Tanguay	Paul Stastny	Jordan Eberle	Mikko Koivu	Henrik Sedin
Olli Jokinen	Milan Hejduk	Taylor Hall	Matt Cullen	Ryan Kesler
Marc Giordano	Erik Johnson	Ryan Whitney	Marek Zidlicky	Alex Edler
Jay Bouwmeester	Ryan O'Byrne	Tom Gilbert	Nick Schultz	Dan Hamhuis
Miikka Kiprusoff	Semyon Varlamov	Devan Dubnyk	Niklas Backstrom	Roberto Luongo

The only team to make a shift in their top six in the Northwest Division was Colorado and I think that was for the better. Adding a goalie and improving their second defenseman makes a big difference. Varlamov is the fourth-best goalie in the division, which now makes the Avalanche the fourth-best team in the division.

My Northwest Division now reads... Vancouver, Calgary, Minnesota, Colorado and Edmonton. It might have been a bit closer if Khabibulin was the better of the two goalies, points-wise, in 2011.

Corey Perry	Loui Eriksson	Anze Kopitar	Shane Doan	Patrick Marleau
Ryan Getzlaf	Mike Ribeiro	Mike Richards	Ray Whitney	Joe Thornton
Bobby Ryan	Brendan Morrow	Dustin Brown	Radim Vrbata	Joe Pavelski
Lubomir Visnovsky	Alex Goligoski	Jack Johnson	Adrian Aucoin	Dan Boyle
Cam Fowler	Stephane Robidas	Rob Scuderi	Michal Rozsival	Brent Burns
Jonas Hiller	Kari Lehtonen	Jonathan Quick	Mike Smith	Antti Niemi

Finally, in the Pacific Division, only one team here had changes made to their top six and the improvements were marginal at best. The Coyotes were last place in the division a week ago and adding Vrbata and Smith to their six didn't do enough for me to put them over the Stars for fourth place. Smith is the worst of the five goalies, Vrbata is the worst of the five forwards in the number three spot.