Showing posts with label pool guides. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pool guides. Show all posts

Monday, August 20, 2018

The Hockey News Ultimate Fantasy Pool Guide 2018-19

I believe the Hockey News Ultimate Fantasy Pool Guide is the most popular publication at my hockey pool drafts and rightfully so. It's easy to read and it lays out a lot of information there for you.  Even though I work on my own projections every year now, which I actually publish (click here), I sure do like looking at the other publication's numbers, just as a reference point.  Some of them may come in handy, as I try to possibly revise my numbers for when draft day (click here) actually rolls around.

One of the things I like the most about the other publications is their insight into some deeper players, who they might see making the team, which prospects are on the verge of breaking through and who might be falling off a little bit.  I don't get to watch hockey all of the time, no matter how much I would like to, so sometimes you have to rely on the hard work of other people to get the job done.

This year's guide does see a small improvement in the number of players published, as they have 707 projections in their book, including 62 goalies, so they cover the gamut of players across all 31 NHL teams.  Just doing a comparison between lists, they did offer up projections for some of the unsigned players, like Sam Reinhart and William Nylander, but mine will come when they sign.  They have a lot of projected rookies, mostly defensemen, that I didn't consider in my immediate list, but they're all certainly players to keep an eye on in training camp.

No surprises here, as Connor McDavid in Edmonton again rules the roost, in terms of projections for the 2019 season, coming in at 114 points.  The rest of the top 10 (and ties) isn't really much of a surprise either... Andrei Vasilevskiy and Nikita Kucherov of the Lightning, Connor Hellebuyck of the Jets, Sidney Crosby of the Penguins, Braden Holtby of the Capitals, Brad Marchand of the Bruins, Sergei Bobrovsky of the Blue Jackets, Patrick Kane of the Blackhawks, Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche and Pekka Rinne of the Predators round out the selection.

In goal, the rest of the top 10 of note are all worthy of a 1st round selection in the pool, if we were to have a 25-team draft again this year.  Matt Murray of the Penguins, Jonathan Quick of the Kings, Frederik Andersen of the Maple Leafs, Marc-Andre Fleury of the Golden Knights and Devan Dubnyk of the Wild are all worthy of your pick in the opening round and it's hard to argue with much of that.  They're betting pretty heavy on Murray in Pittsburgh, which I suggested you could, but his injury concerns are worth discounting his value on a bit.

The forward group had six in the top 11 (thanks to a tie), so the remaining four players of note look a little something like this... John Tavares of the Maple Leafs, Alex Ovechkin of the Capitals, David Pastrnak of the Bruins and Steven Stamkos of the Lightning.  Kucherov, Marchand and Pastrnak are the only three players in the top 10 forwards to not have been taken with the 1st overall selection in their respective draft year. 

The first defenseman on the list doesn't appear until 42nd on list, which means he would be a late 2nd round pick in a 25-team draft and I would imagine that the actual draft may see one of these top defenders go earlier than that and a landslide of blueliners may hit.  Last year, the top defender was taken early in the 2nd, 28th overall, followed by four more in the round.  Erik Karlsson of the Senators, Brent Burns of the Sharks, Victor Hedman of the Lightning, John Klingberg of the Stars, Tyson Barrie of the Avalanche, Seth Jones of the Blue Jackets, Morgan Rielly of the Maple Leafs, P.K. Subban of the Predators, Shayne Gostisbehere of the Flyers and Oliver Ekman-Larsson of the Coyotes would be your top 10.  If you can snag one of these guys, you're probably going to be in good shape through the year.

How about the rookie class?  Are you shopping for those freshmen?  Elias Pettersson of the Canucks leads the Hockey News projections at 58 points, not too far from where I have him slotted, so he'll be one to watch.  The rest of the top 10 rookies, in order, are Andrei Svechnikov of the Hurricanes, Casey Mittlestadt & Rasmus Dahlin of the Sabres, Sam Steel of the Ducks, Ryan Donato of the Bruins, Filip Zadina of the Red Wings, Valentin Zykov of the Hurricanes, Andreas Johnsson of the Maple Leafs and Vladislav Kamenev of the Avalanche.

For just about anyone, I would suggest putting your own list together, but who really has the time to look at 700+ players, especially for my draft, to figure out who you should take and when you feel most comfortable to do so.  The Hockey News does do a pretty good job of putting together a list, where you can cross off players at the back of the magazine, but they do separate the skaters from the goalies too, so you better be prepared for that.

Maybe this year I'll look at a few other magazines out there, I know I have before.  It's kind of fun to compare notes.  It makes for decent reading.

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

The Hockey News Ultimate Fantasy Pool Guide 2017-18

Was I wrong to doubt the Hockey News last year? Perhaps. But then where's the fun of doing your own projections, right?  The call on Connor McDavid being the top dog was pretty darn close, given that the publication said 95 points and he reached an even 100 points by the end of the year.   The Hockey Pool's numbers also suggested that Braden Holtby was going to be the top dog at 106 points... and well, he was the top dog at 102 points in my hockey pool scoring rankings.

Does that mean I'm going to give up and not go along with my own projections?  Hell no.  There's no fun in just taking someone else's numbers out of a book... is there?  Don't forget to have a peek at my projections, just in case you're wondering.

The pool guide has done a pretty decent job of putting together a good list of players this year, 693, by my count, so that would look pretty good on the 200 forwards, 100 defense and 50 goalies we'd be taking if the pool was 25 teams again.  And based on a 25-team pool, like we had last season, let's do some basic comparisons.

My 5-point range of scoring saw McDavid on top at the 105-point range, while the Hockey News suggests that he's in for a huge year, posting 112 points, far and away the best player of the bunch.  I went so far to add a few goalies in the 100-point range, Cam Talbot, Devan Dubnyk and Tuukka Rask, but the Hockey News didn't have any more.

The projections for the 1st round in their publication, the top 25 players, rounds out at 76 points, which is 25 players on the nose.  I do think there is a little room for movement, given that lots can happen in any given season and my 75-point range does have 34 potential players that could be 1st rounders, including Brent Burns, Corey Crawford, Pekka Rinne, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Brad Marchand, Auston Matthews, Blake Wheeler and Tyler Seguin.  Teams are going to want and edge in the pool somewhere and if they can find it this early, they are already better off.

Nevertheless, let's have a look at their top 10's, see if they are in line with your thinking.  Patrick  Kane, Nikita Kucherov, Sidney Crosby, Mark Scheifele, Leon Draisaitl, Jamie Benn, Jack Eichel, John Tavares and Nicklas Backstrom all round out that group behind McDavid and it's really looking like the youth movement is on, according to the publication.

On defense, there are no real surprises here: Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, Victor Hedman, Rasmus Ristolainen, Dustin Byfuglien, John Klingberg, Dougie Hamilton, Roman Josi, Duncan Keith and P.K. Subban are your top ten.  With both Eichel and Ristolainen playing prominent roles on their respective lists, the Sabres are slowly creeping their way back into relevance, aren't they?

Talbot, Rask and Dubnyk were among my top 10, also figuring into theirs as well, while Braden Holtby, Matt Murray, Carey Price, Frederik Andersen, Jake Allen, Mike Smith and Sergei Bobrovsky round out their top 10.  Very notable in this list is the Flames' Smith, who finally may have found himself that spot that he can finally put some real points together this year.

One thing I did like about this year's Hockey News numbers, they included a starter and a backup for all 31 teams, which is certainly helpful.  I think there was only one disagreement in all 31 teams and that was I thought Jeff Zatkoff would be the guy over Darcy Kuemper for the back-up job in Los Angeles.  That one really could go either way.  Granted, if something changes, the blog will reflect those changes, while print is still print.

How about the rookie class?  We're both in agreement, Nolan Patrick is the one to watch this year and it's going to be a good race.  Clayton Keller, Brock Boeser, Joel Eriksson Ek and Nico Hischier are all hovering around where I have them in my projections, so there could be something to this race yet.  Also in the rookie top ten, Tyson Jost, Matthew Barzal, Josh Ho-Sang, Charlie McAvoy and Zach Senyshyn.

The faith in the Florida Panthers and their off-season acquisitions seems to be rather thin, only banking points on Evgeny Dadonov, suggesting that he'll be a pretty good pick-up this year, and skipping over the likes of Henrik Haapala or Juho Lammikko, a pair of Finns looking to push through this year.  I thought this was a notable point, especially since the Panthers were such a hard team to predict this summer.

We're just over a month away from draft day and the numbers are slowly beginning to creep out.  I would say build your own thorough list, that way you don't leave players that you're really looking for behind, but if you're only going to buy a guide leading up to draft day, this would be the one I'd suggest more often than not.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

The Hockey News Ultimate Fantasy Pool Guide 2016-17

At first glance,  +The Hockey News pool guide for the coming season is ramping up Connor-mania and it's hard not to look at that cover and think to yourself, "yeah, I think I would take Connor McDavid with the 1st overall pick this year."  His finish to the 2016 season left a pleasant taste in a lot of mouths, I would believe and the belief is that he is only going to get better and that could ramp up in a big hurry.

Now, they do project McDavid to lead all scorers in the league with 96 points in the coming season and as much as I think that might be a little high, compared to my previously published projections, it isn't the highest total of points, thanks to my pool scoring system, so don't be fooled.

If you go back to goalies, right near the end of the magazine, you'll find that Braden Holtby is projected for 46 wins and 7 shutouts, which would give him 106 points in the pool and he is far and away the best player to take.  So, there is that.  The goalies, especially the top end keepers, tend to go pretty early at my draft, but if your pool doesn't figure goalies to be quite as potent, then McDavid is the way to go then.

So, we'll say Holtby is tops, McDavid is next, then we have Sidney Crosby coming in at 95 points, Jonathan Quick in at 92 points, Patrick Kane down to 90 points, Carey Price returns with 86 points and then Jake AllenMatthew Murray in at 84 points.  Rounding out the top 10 we have Vladimir Tarasenko John Tavares tied at 83 points.

Out of this list, we see that the Hockey News is confident that Murray will indeed unseat Marc-Andre Fleury in Pittsburgh.  It looks like the expectations of the Penguins are still quite high, since they have Fleury still picking up another 29 wins, on top of Murray's 37 wins, which suggests a 66-win season.  66-16-0 would be an off the charts year, unless Fleury was to get moved at some point in the year, which would make some sense.

To the Hockey News' credit, they did point out that Petr Mrazek was going to take over in Detroit, edging Jimmy Howard out of the number one spot and by the numbers this year, there is no going back, with Mrazek in at 58 points and Howard in at 30.

Shall we stay in the crease?  Last year, their list was awfully short, only ranking 45 goalies and that wasn't good enough for the participation for the 2015 pool, let alone last season's pool, which saw 27 teams and 54 goalies taken.  Looks like they've made up for that, listing 60 goalies, so if we repeat the 27-team season, there will be enough names to go around.

Other revelations from their list include Ben Bishop still the number one guy in Tampa, since he's still going to don their uniform on opening night.  The Hockey News still has Ryan Miller over Jacob Markstrom in Vancouver, Brian Elliott will win 31 games in Calgary, Antti Niemi will best Kari Lehtonen in Dallas and the pairing of Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss might get much closer to a platoon system.

We already saw the top five forwards in the top 10, but Jamie Benn, Johnny Gaudreau (once he's signed), Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nikita Kucherov (once he's signed) and Alex Ovechkin will certainly have something to say, rounding out the top 10 of forwards here.

Ovechkin is slated to top Tarasenko in the goals department, suggesting another 50-goal campaign is upcoming, compared to his compatriot's 45-goal projection, while Steven Stamkos is up for 42 markers, Joe Pavelski could hit 40 and Kane should be at 40 as well.

The Hockey News has big things on the horizon for Alexander Radulov, as he joins the Montreal Canadiens in this circus, projecting him for 60 points this season.  I don't have him doing half of that and that's where I'm prepared to take him.

Among the rookie forwards, Auston Matthews could hit 65 points in Toronto, while Patrik Laine is down with 46 points in Winnipeg and Jesse Puljujarvi is also with 46 points in Edmonton.  William Nylander in Toronto, Dylan Strome in Arizona and Mitch Marner, also in Toronto, are all projected above Laine and Puljujarvi this year, 55, 50 & 49 points, respectively.  This certainly does have the makings of a good rookie race among forwards.

I have a feeling that we'll see a better brand of offense from the blueline this season, but the Hockey News doesn't seem to be so sure.  Sure, Erik Karlsson is projected to have a 77-point season, a top 10 skater, but the drop Brent Burns down to 64 points, Oliver Ekman-Larsson rises to 61 points, Roman Josi and Kris Letang finish around 60 points and P.K. Subban sticks with 59 points, rounding out the top six.

Some of the surprise notes in their list include a guy like Shayne Gostisbehere, who appeared to be nothing less than a dynamo, they now have as a regular Joe Schmoe, down with 43 points, well down in the rankings.  I don't think it was surprising that they projected Shea Weber to have less points than Subban this season, but only 47 points seems a bit low.  Everything else, you could make somewhat of an argument for, I suppose... although the difference between Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, 47 & 39 points, seems a bit of a big gap.  Maybe that's just me then.

Overall, it is a fairly comprehensive magazine, which is generally worth it's value in reading, even if it is only used as a preseason gauge to the rest of the season.  I would always recommend that you do up a comprehensive list of your own, just to make sure you're getting what you really want, at times that you feel more comfortable taking players and then using guides like this or my own projections as helpful hints or suggestions, throwing large grains of salt at them as well.  This one still remains the best one out there, even though it isn't quite as dynamic as a blog site and has to be done pretty early to make publication dates.

Friday, September 04, 2015

The Sports Forecaster 2015-16 NHL Preview & Fantasy Guide

Sure, Sportsnet's pool guide didn't have very many players, something that the Sports Forecaster (TSF) magazine takes care of.  TSF actually covers a lot of ground in their guide, even listing players in their team breakdowns without any projections.  I'm not quite sure what that's about, but if you don't think a player should be picked on a team, maybe you can give them a very poor number?  Heck, you gave Reto Berra 1 win (2 points) in your forecasting!

The depth for each team is fairly substantial from TSF, which makes this some really good reading.  Come draft day (October 3rd for us), they also provide a good pull-out for a 500-skater list, plus a top-50 goalie list, which may or may not be enough for our draft, but at least it will be close.  Their pull-out does a good job highlighting the rookies, injury prone and players on contract years, if you're looking for an Alexander Mogilny-type player.

As for the reading, they do a pretty good job outlining who to watch out for in every position and they toss out some pretty interesting theories, especially in net.  They expect to see Eddie Lack, Antti Niemi and Petr Mrazek to take over some starting jobs through the season, which is pretty interesting and not at all far-fetched, by the end of the year.  TSF is also pretty high on Max Domi in Arizona, which could have a big impact on the rookie race this year and I like the sound of that race being interesting.

This is the fourth pool guide reviewed this year (it's been a very slow Summer), and TSF is the second guide to rule Sidney Crosby as the top player available at the draft, once I calculated all the goalie points.  Crosby leads all players in their projections with 108, leading both John Tavares and Carey Price, who both came in at 100 points as well.  All three players have had votes as the top player among all the pool guides, so that's something they can all really agree upon.

TSF also has another nine players in the 90+ range as well, which suggests that there will be some very good top end talent for us to choose from this year.  Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin, Tyler Seguin, Alex Ovechkin, Phil Kessel, Steven Stamkos, Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne and Braden Holtby all round out that list.  These guys have all been staples among all the mags this year, in varying degrees.

Out of those top 12 players mentioned, eight of them are forwards, as they are pushing for an offensive flurry of action this year and I wonder if that has more to do with the 3-on-3 overtime situations this year, which I hope boost scoring numbers as well, but I'm not holding my breath.  Rounding out the top 10 forwards on their list is a tie with 89 points, between Vladimir Tarasenko and Claude Giroux, both could very well be 1st round picks this year.

A consensus has happened among all the guides, if you're looking to corner the market on the top defenseman, you have to go with Erik Karlsson in Ottawa, but he only just clips P.K. Subban in Montreal by a couple points, 71-69.  If teams down at the bottom of the 1st round don't capitalize on a good starting goalie, I could see a team or two trying to capitalize on a top end defender, relying on the gap between the elite and the good players.

Brent Burns, Shea Weber, Victor Hedman, Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyson Barrie, Roman Josi, John Carlson and Mark Giordano are the rest of the top 10 defenders, ranging from 55 points to 61 points, keeping it pretty tight among the prognostications.

With Price, Lundqvist, Rinne and Holtby leading the way for the keepers, the top 10 rounds out with Semyon Varlamov, Jaroslav Halak, Sergei Bobrovsky, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jonathan Quick and Roberto Luongo, throwing some interesting names into the mix.  Goalies are going to be a hot commodity this year, especially with the potential of a mini-game with their names on it.

Speaking of mini-games, how about the rookie potential?  Another consensus pick in Connor McDavid leading the way, right smack-dab in the middle of most of the other projections, TSF giving him 80 points to work with, 25th in projections overall.  Max Domi is the 2nd-best rookie on their list, 3 points ahead of Jack Eichel, 68-65.  Sam Bennett of the Flames is in the mix, looking at 57 points, while Blackhawks newcomer, Artemi Panarin is in at 55 points.  An interesting top five for the freshmen.

Out of the four, the TSF guide is definitely one of the easier to understand and they do a bit better at justifying why some players are where they are, instead of bogging you down with advanced stat theories or fancy graphics.  Having that pull-out is also a huge plus for any poolie, especially when a draft moves swiftly through the rounds.

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Sportsnet NHL Pool Guide 2015-2016

Sportsnet... home to everything that is hockey in Canada. They can be a bit wordy on television sometimes and they were accurately able to replicate that effort into their pool guide. When the Hockey News and the Pooler's Guide is worried about the numbers that the players should accomplish, Sportsnet has long diatribes about how they got to some of their numbers and it goes on and on and on.

Their pool guide, which you would think would be full of player projections, only has 230 players in it and there is no real definitive projection, rather they have a ceiling and a floor for each player, saving themselves from the comparison treatment.  I will say, that rounding off their ceiling and floor projections to the nearest five is a very familiar way to do things, which is good, but it isn't enough to really make me like it anymore.

So, with ceiling and floor projections, you're still going to have to use a lot of your own judgement with this guide, maybe more so than the other ones.  You can argue that Nazem Kadri has the skill to hit the 65-point ceiling that Sportsnet suggests for him, but we all know that the Maple Leafs are not going to be a great team and he shouldn't have that much help to reach that plateau.

The goalies are another interesting bunch of players in this magazine, as the magazine only projects their wins and nothing else, so it doesn't give you an accurate look at what they could do for your pool team, especially when shutouts are an extra 2 points.  Will Robin Lehner win 35 games in Buffalo this year?  Somehow I doubt it, no matter how much talent he brings to the table.

No shutouts projected means that this guide leads the way with forwards, which could be problematic for my draft and likely others, as the defensive game still reigns supreme in the league these days.  Nevertheless, Sidney Crosby still leads the way, as his ceiling is set at 110 points, while Patrick Kane, if he plays, is set up at 105 points.  John Tavares, Jamie Benn, Alex Ovechkin, Tyler Seguin and Vladimir Tarasenko are all potential 100-point players and while I won't argue that they can't get to 100 points, it seems rather unlikely that they all will and even one or two would even be a stretch.

Sure, we're going to see some 3-on-3 overtime, but will that really translate into more points for the superstars?

The 90-point bracket, thanks to 45-win ceilings, is where we'll find our first goalies and it's Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne, who all share the honour of being in top spot.  No arguments here.  All three of those goalies have the potential to be the best keeper in the pool and they also have the potential to be the best player in the pool as well.  They are quickly followed by Ben Bishop, Jonathan Quick, Sergei Bobrovsky and Devan Dubnyk, who are all in with 43 wins and 86 points.  If you're going to get an elite starting goalie, you're going to have to be quick, I'd say.

Erik Karlsson leads all defensemen again in this magazine, just like the rest of them, coming in at a 75-point ceiling, tied for 43rd among all players projected in the guide.  That's a good 2nd round pick by this pool's standards.  If you're able to snag an elite goalie and a top end defenseman, you could be rolling in it by the end of the year.

The possibilities for the elite defenders is quite high, as Sportsnet suggests that P.K. Subban, Kristopher Letang, Victor Hedman and Brent Burns are good enough for 70 points this year, but some come with a lower floor projection than others, like Letang, suggesting what we all know, that he has injury prone problems and he could just as easily lose out on points to an extended time on the shelf.

Where you're really going to suffer at my draft, if you take this magazine, is with the rookies.  I've been stressing them this year, because there is money on it.  If you're name is not Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel, you need not apply for this magazine.  Sportsnet touches on a few more names, but they don't offer any ceilings or floors for guys other than the top two picks from this Summer's draft, where McDavid could be a 95-point player and Eichel would only top out at 70 points.  Those are substantial numbers and if you're fortunate to snag one, your placement in the rookie race will be secure.

Now, if you want to sit through long articles on how the new wave of advanced stats are going to possibly help your hockey pool team, then this is the magazine for you.  Yes, there were guys who had some excellent puck possession numbers, but you would have to know that if there are teams that are keying in on those kind of players, thanks to the hiring of advanced statistic analysts, then coaches are going to be on top of it and those numbers could change with the climate of the game.  What players do one year, only gives you an idea about what they did last year... it only gives you reason to pick some players this year, it doesn't guarantee that these players will put up the same numbers again.

In all seriousness, if you're going to bring this magazine to the draft, you better have a supplementary list of players, because this won't be enough.

Sunday, August 23, 2015

The Poolers' Guide 2015-2016 Edition

It's been five years since I picked up a copy of the Poolers' Guide from Hockey, The Magazine, and if anything has stayed the same, it is the publications use of colour and its overall flashiness.

When I had last picked it up, it had the feeling that it wasn't very comprehensive, limiting the number of players that it gave projections for.  This time around, it isn't too bad, upping their game to 427 projections (or so), which would be good enough for the 23-team pool we had last season, which topped out at 322 players taken at the draft.

The theme across the projections is wins, which should be no surprise, after the year of the goalie in the 2015 season.  Carey Price tops the Poolers' Guide list, as per my scoring parameters, topping out his projection at 102 points, while Braden Holtby is back in 2nd place, with a 98-point projection.  These two have been 1-2 in my projections, the Hockey News and now these projections.  Could anyone possibly stray away from these guys at the draft in October?

Six of the top 10 players on the list are goalies, to no one's surprise.  Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne, Jonathan Quick and Ben Bishop round out the list there, in the 3-4-7-10 spots.  Jaroslav Halak, Frederik Andersen, Ryan Miller and Sergei Bobrovsky round out the top 10 goalies overall, all projected to be 1st round picks.

Four forwards rounded out the top 10 in overall projections in this publication, led by John Tavares, expecting him to earn his first Art Ross Trophy this season, coming in at 92 points.  Sidney Crosby, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn were also top 10 overall picks, according to these guys.

As for the rest of the top 10 forwards, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Taylor Hall, Patrick Kane and Steven Stamkos round out the list.  That's a very high-powered top 10, so if you're not going to pick up a goalie in the 1st round, you should make up the difference with a pretty decent forward, at the very least.

On defense, it's looking very similar to the previous projections we've seen thus far.  Erik Karlsson leads the pack, this time, with 72 points, followed again by P.K. Subban, at 63 points.  Brent Burns, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie, Mark Giordano, John Carlson, Victor Hedman, Kristopher Letang and Dustin Byfuglien.  I think once the pool hits the late 2nd round, early 3rd round, it's going to be a race for these guys and rightfully so.

The rookie class in this year's edition isn't very deep and it starts the same as most lists will, with Connor McDavid on top.  The 2015 1st overall pick comes in with 72 points in this guide, which has him tied for 30th in points, dropping him into the 2nd round of the draft around there.  The interesting note on the rookies is that Jack Eichel isn't in behind McDavid, rather he ranks 4th, behind both Nikolaj Ehlers and Sam Bennett in the rookie race.

In total, I only count 14 rookies in these projections, which would only give better than half of our pool teams a rookie, if they all wanted one.

One of the cool parts about this magazine, is that it does have a 3-page wide pull-out, which would give you a good stack of names, right in front of your face, without having to flip over a bunch of pages.

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

The Hockey News Ultimate Fantasy Pool Guide 2015-16

This year, I spent some extra time prepping my pool projections and getting them all done, before I really had a good look at the other guides out there, but when you start seeing them on the shelf, it's hard not to take a peek.

Now that all 30 teams are published on the blog, I can really sit down with the pool guides and see how they differ from what I've done.  The first one up, from the Hockey News, has been on the shelf for about a week already and it has been just been teasing me, egging me on to get my stuff done just a little bit faster... and it worked.

I like the Hockey News' fantasy guide, it is fairly thorough and it gives you a pretty good idea of what's going on, but the tough thing about it is that it is released in August and for those people who wait until the night before to pick up a guide, usually in September/October, before their draft, they won't nearly be up-to-date.  Still, this year isn't a bad year for it, because a lot of the moves were done early, so they could make a good product.

It should also be noted, I use the Hockey News projections at my draft, in its own separate section.  If you haven't been to the draft before, I do have a screen up, which gives you the next best players, sorted by last year's points and the Hockey News' projections, just to save some time.

The last time I wrote about a pool guide on the blog, it was 2011 and it was still the Sidney Crosby love-in at the top.  At least the Hockey News has kept up with the times and this year's top star is a goalie and they have a good number of goalies right at the top of the list, headed up by Braden Holtby.

Holtby, according to the Ultimate Fantasy Pool Guide, should be coming in at 43 wins and 7 shutouts, which tops out at 100 points.  Of course, there are assists that count for goalies in my pool, but you can't really forecast them that well, so I'm not too worried about it.

Last year's pool MVP, Carey Price, he is projected as the second-best player, scheduled for 41 wins and 8 shutouts, bringing his projected total up to 98 points.

Crosby doesn't fall too short of the top, ranking 3rd among all players in my pool scoring scheme, his projection coming in at 97 points.  I have Crosby up pretty high, especially given the changes in the Penguins lineup for the coming season, but after recognizing that goalies were the top six players in scoring last year, I wasn't in a big hurry to have a skater up really high.

The Hockey News' top 10 rounds out with Tuukka Rask in Boston, Henrik Lundqvist in New York, Steven Stamkos in Tampa, Pekka Rinne in Nashville, Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles, Sergei Bobrovsky in Columbus and Connor McDavid in Edmonton.

Yes, the rookie comes in at 10th, fueling all kinds of excitement and furthering the idea that McDavid will go in the 1st round of a lot of annual pools.

Back to goalies for a moment, seven out of the top 10 players are goalies, which is a pretty good indication for the pool going in, they might not lead you astray, if you chose their magazine for my draft at the beginning of October.

Ben Bishop, Semyon Varlamov and Marc-Andre Fleury round out the top 10 goalies on their list and they're all very good picks, if you decide to take a goalie early on in the pool.

After Crosby, Stamkos and McDavid, the rest of the top 10 forwards look a little something like this: Tyler Seguin in Dallas, Vladimir Tarasenko in St. Louis, John Tavares on Long Island, Alex Ovechkin in Washington, Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh, the Art Ross Trophy winner Jamie Benn and Nicklas Backstrom of the Capitals.  That's a pretty tight group of forwards, most destined for the 1st round of the pool draft.

The blueline is another contentious part of the draw, especially when you consider there is such a wide gap between the top end players and the depth guys, who end up at the end of the draft order.  The top 10 defensemen, according to the Hockey News, are as follows: Ottawa's Erik Karlsson, St. Louis' Kevin Shattenkirk, Montreal's P.K. Subban, Colorado's Tyson Barrie, Tampa Bay's Victor Hedman, San Jose's Brent Burns, Anaheim's Sami Vatanen, Arizona's Oliver Ekman-Larsson and then an 8-way tie for 9th, with 50 points a piece.

The rookie class is also an important one this year and it's a good idea to wrap your head around the rookies in your homework sessions.  McDavid is destined to lead the way this year, but if you're looking to win your money back in the rookie race, you may want to consider Jack Eichel in Buffalo, Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg, Max Domi in Arizona, Artemy Panarin in Chicago, Sam Bennett in Calgary, Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa Bay, Anthony Duclair in Arizona, Valentin Zykov in Los Angeles or Sam Reinhart in Buffalo.  Those would be the top 10 rookies, according to the Hockey News.

I think one of the interesting points that was made in this year's edition of the guide, was the indication that Petr Mrazek may usurp Jimmy Howard as the number one guy in Detroit.  An interesting theory/gamble, one that does have some merit on the surface and certainly has a chance to play out, if Howard gets off to a rocky start.

Another interesting point, one that would play into this draft, especially if the participation levels are up is the number of goalies forecasted in the book.  By my count, there are only 45 goalies in there, which would be one short of last year's drafted total.  Something to seriously look out for, if you're late to the goalie party at the draft.

If you're going to use this pool guide at my draft this year, make sure you're coming in with a plan that doesn't leave you hanging out to dry in the player picking department.  Coming with your own list and only using this guide to provide some advice, would be best.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

The Sports Forecaster Preview & Fantasy Guide for 2011

It's been a busy August/September and you can tell by this being only my second pool guide review for the coming NHL season. Nevertheless, I'll continuing comparing guides, as I get them.

On Monday, I picked up the The Sportscaster Preview and Fantasy Guide for this year, what formerly was the Score's fantasy pool guide, something to go up against the Hockey News guide, which is generally my favourite of the bunch each year.

After a monster season before injury and assuming that he'll be in the line-up for opening night, the Sports Forecaster has also chosen Sidney Crosby as their best player to take in the hockey pools, projecting him to come away with a 104-point season, narrowly beating out Alex Ovechkin, who they have rocking a 102-point season.

No real big surprises in the top 10 forwards on their list, as Steven Stamkos, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin and NIcklas Backstrom round out the selections.  All eight are very reasonable top end picks, some of which have been outlined as pretty good picks as 1st overall.

John Tavares has been chosen to jump into the top-20 in forwards scoring, projected to have an 83-point season, which should make him into an attractive selection in the pool this season.  Matt Duchene, one of the Hockey News' breakout players is down in 26th with a 79-point projection for the year.

On the blueline, the Sports Forecaster have reward Keith Yandle's good season with the top projection among defensemen, coming in at 66 points.  Yandle is definitely making a name for himself in the desert and he will have to lead the way in Phoenix, if they are going to be successful this year.

Rounding out the top 10 among defensemen on this list, Dustin Byfuglien, Niklas Kronwall, Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Weber, Mike Green, Cam Fowler, Drew Doughty, Kris Letang and Zdeno Chara.  It looks like we should be preparing for a changing of the guard, so to speak, with Pietrangelo and Fowler making some big jumps, not to mention Kronwall assuming top spot in Detroit.  A very interesting set of prognostications, to say the least.

In goal, we have a bold prediction to lead the way, as the Sports Forecaster likes Corey Crawford for 94 points (41 wins and 6 shutouts) this season, assuming that the Blackhawks are a much better team than they were in the 2011 season.  Very bold, as there are lots of new pieces on that team and Crawford will have to really step up and be something to work out those numbers.

Carey Price, Ryan Miller, Ilya Bryzgalov, Henrik Lundqvist, Marc-Andre Fleury, Miikka Kiprusoff, Jaroslav Halak, Pekka Rinne and Martin Brodeur round out the top 10 for points for a goalie on their list, which isn't a bad list either.

Another bold prediction in the rookie category, as the Sports Forecaster has went the way of the blueline to lead freshmen scoring, picking David Rundblad of the Senators to score 34 points, narrowly moving ahead of Ryan Johansen of the Blue Jackets, who had 33 points.  I like this move, it is quite bold and exciting, adding some depth to the blueline discussion.  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Oilers is listed with 29 points, Ryan Ellis of the Predators is at 28 points, while Gabriel Landeskog of the Avalanche is at 27 points.  Not a lot of faith for the rookies, but spaced out nicely for good consideration.

If a magazine is going to set itself away from its competition, it will have to make some bold predictions and that is what the Sports Forecaster has done this year.  The other big plus, as always, is their pull out of the top 500 skaters and 50 goalies.  That's always a big help in the drafting process, something to check off or cross out.  I would recommend this issue this year, especially if you want to come with a different philosophy into your draft this year.

Monday, August 15, 2011

The Hockey News Ultimate Pool Guide for 2011-'12

Generally, the middle payday of August means that I've gone out to find the new hockey pool guides and fortunately, the The Hockey News Ultimate Pool Guide for the 2011-'12 season has been released and I usually like to go over them to try and find the most interesting tidbits.

It's kind of funny, this is the first year that I've posted something about one of the pool guides before I have even booked the day for the draft this year.  How strange.

Nevertheless, we're still a good few weeks until the regular season starts and it will be in the two weeks leading up to the season when we'll have the annual draft, so there is plenty of time to study, if you're like me and study all year around.  (NOTE: Studying all year around does not necessarily make you into a better poolie, it may just keep you out of trouble more than anything)

The Hockey News' love affair with the Pittsburgh Penguins continues in the new edition of the poolie guide, as Sidney Crosby has returned to the top of the heap, projected to pick up 117 points in 75 games, including 55 goals.  That will be one hell of a feat for the Penguins' captain, one a lot of people may also think could happen.   Crosby is also the only forward slated to reach the 100-point mark, but since there was only one 100-point player in 2011, you could reason with that to a point.

Alex Ovechkin comes in at number two, expected to make the leap back into the forefront, chasing down his old nemesis in the scoring race.  Ovechkin is also scheduled to score 50 goals, but fall short of triple-digits by a couple, projected to come in at 98 points.  Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, Henrik Sedin, Nicklas Backstrom, Corey Perry, Daniel Sedin, Evgeni Malkin and Ryan Getzlaf all finish in the top 10 among forwards, with Malkin and Getzlaf rounding out at 87 points each.

Expectations have increased for Avalanche forward Matt Duchene, as he has been slotted in at 11th with 86 points, while the Islanders' John Tavares isn't too far behind at 18th with 82 points.

The defensemen situation is expected to return to its 2010 season form, Mike Green is projected to lead all NHL blueliners with 73 points in 78 games, which is far and away the best of the bunch, with Drew Doughty (pending a new contract) coming in at 60 points in 80 games.  If the Capitals are going to return to their scoring ways, Green will be there racking up points.  Kris Letang, Lubomir Visnovsky, Alex Goligoski, Mark Streit, Dan Boyle, Keith Yandle, Andrei Markov, Shea Weber and Nicklas Lidstrom all round out the top 11, with Weber and Lidstrom tied at 52 points.

In goal, the Hockey News is high on the Buffalo Sabres as well, as they have put Ryan Miller among the tops in goaltending, expected to win 40 games, 5 by shutout, which would work out to about 90 points, give or take an assist or two.  The Sabres spent a lot of money, but the application of all this new talent may have it's fair share of growing pains.  Henrik Lundqvist is also expected to pick up 90 points, 37 wins and 8 shutouts, so he'll be giving poolies something to think about when they make their first goalie selection.  Carey Price, Roberto Luongo, Marc-Andre Fleury, Pekka Rinne, Martin Brodeur, Tomas Vokoun, Miikka Kiprusoff, Ilya Bryzgalov and Corey Crawford are all projected for over 80 points by the Hockey News.

The rookie class is another one to take a close look at, when should you be looking to draft a rookie or two?  Well, like most players, you really want to be picking them where you project them to finish in the scoring race.  The Hockey News has the Oilers' Ryan Nugent-Hopkins leading all rookies with 55 points in 2012, which would put him in around the top 100 in pool scoring, just outside of the 3rd round.  Brayden Schenn will start a new life with Philly, projected to pick up 50 points with the Flyers, while Ryan Johansen will jump onto the scene with 45 points.  I wouldn't be in a huge rush to pick up the rookie class, they haven't proven to be great sleepers over the last few years, turning out to be bigger busts than most players.

The checklist feature of the projections is a very handy tool and I know many of my poolies use this guide to get them through 14 rounds of player selections and last year the draft went pretty well.  I think there is plenty of information at your fingertips, so I would recommend this one, like I do most years.

Monday, September 06, 2010

The Pooler's Guide 2010-2011 Edition

Still one of the flashiest pool guides out there, immediately I look at the cover and there is only the top 300 projected players? Blimey. I'm hoping to draft 240 forwards alone this year in my draft, so that really doesn't help me at all. Of course, I'll probably only have 17 people in my draft again this year, so 136 forwards is really what anyone would need, but I digress.

There are lots of predictions for the end of the year honours, but that doesn't really work for me as a poolie, it is just one of those things that looks a little flashy. What I do like is how they stuck their necks out for the top 25 players that will help you and hurt you, some very good thoughts in those pages.

The Pooler's Guide goes back to the same old well with choosing Alex Ovechkin as their top point-getter in 2011, suggesting that he will edge Sidney Crosby by 4 points, 116-112.  Again, it looks like safety in suggestions is the hot trend among these pool guides and it isn't like I disagree.  I don't think I could bet against either Ovechkin or Crosby to make the leap back up to the top, trying not to take away from Henrik Sedin, who won the Art Ross Trophy last season.  Sedin ranks 5th on this list with 98 points, falling behind both Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeni Malkin in their 2011 projections.

The remaining top 10 forwards on the list include Joe Thornton, Daniel Sedin, Steven Stamkos, Dany Heatley and Martin St. Louis, keeping a lot of the team pairings alive.  One doesn't seem to go far without the other among these publications and that is also very reasonable to me to believe.  I think if you're going to go to your draft and hoping to get a pair, you'll either have to have a shallow list of teams or a bunch of muppets drafting against you.

In net, there are some more conservative estimates for most goaltenders and here is where you can see that this list was published ages ago, before most of the movement happened in free agent and trade markets.  Nevertheless, both Roberto Luongo and Ilya Bryzgalov have numbers good enough for 92 points, which would put them both in the top 10 in the actual ranks and definite 1st round picks.  Antti Niemi slides into 3rd among keepers with 90 points, but is still listed with the Blackhawks, so I wonder what he would be getting in San Jose, especially with Thornton and Heatley up so high in the forward points.  Martin Brodeur, Jimmy Howard and Marc-Andre Fleury round out the top tier of goalies, all of which are 1st round picks in most pools, although Howard and the Red Wings might not be as safe of a bet as they once were.

Rounding out the top 10 in goal from this book are Semyon Varlamov, Ryan Miller, Pekka Rinne and Henrik Lundqvist.  Out of those four, I suspect Rinne will have to work the hardest for some of those wins, as the Predators offense might be the weakest of those four teams, but I don't think a top 10 finish in net is out of his grasp.

On defense, the consensus is in.  Mike Green rules the blueline scoring leaders with another top finish in this magazine, as the Pooler's Guide projects him to pick up 79 points this year, 38th among all players.  I have a feeling that Green is going to go in the 1st round in my draft this year, if I get 20-to-25 people in, otherwise he will be a sure thing in the 2nd round.  Someone will want to make sure they get all those points coming from the back end.  Drew Doughty gets his due in this guide, getting 2nd place on defense honours with 65 points, which drops him down a few rounds, but I'm sure there are going to be some guys who will want to go after him early, as well as Duncan Keith, who is projected to have 62.

Dan Boyle, Sergei Gonchar, Tyler Myers, Mark Streit, Chris Pronger, Tomas Kaberle and Lubomir Visnovsky round out the top 10 blueliners on this list.  If you read my Twitter feed, you'd know that I'm a big Myers fan, but I'm not sure I would lump him into this mix in his sophomore season.  He should still be a stand-up guy in front of Miller, but I don't think his scoring will be that strong.  If you took him out of the top 10, you would have to insert Sheldon Souray and I don't know which one I would want more, honestly.

Now, with this shallow group of players on its projection list, the number of rookies are very limited.  The Pooler's Guide does like Taylor Hall to do the business this year, projecting him for a rookie-best 55 points. Tyler Seguin, Jordan Eberle, PK Subban, John Carlson, Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Bernier, Tyler Ennis, Brett MacLean and Mikael Backlund are all said to be in the mix, but nothing terribly stellar in terms of numbers.  Bernier will be a good pick, if he can make the Kings crease on a regular basis, putting lots of pressure on Jonathan Quick.

There are a few things that I like about this publication, more the written content and the features, but the depth lacks and the layout doesn't really strike me as being all that helpful.  The Pooler's Guide is a good complimentary read, probably not one to take to your draft, especially if it is a deep draft.

Monday, August 30, 2010

The Sports Forecaster Preview & Fantasy Guide

In what has been branded by the Score in the past, the Sports Forecaster 2010-'11 NHL Preview and Fantasy Guide has been one of my favourite reads leading up to drafts, because they do a pretty good job with younger players. The top 500 players and 50 goalies pull-out is also pretty good, but it is in such small print, it doesn't really work well in the dim lighting of the bar, once we're in full draft mode and someone decides to turn on the mood lighting.

It seems strange, this is already the end of August and this is only the second guide I've had a chance to look at. Well, I guess I better get right at it then...

The Forecaster is definitely going out on a limb this season by selecting Alex Ovechkin as the top scorer in the league this season.  Okay, maybe they aren't, but they are suggesting that this is going to be one hell of a race between Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, both eclipsing the 120-point mark this year.  Ovechkin is listed at 128 points in their forecast, while Crosby is not far behind at 123 points.  As those two will go, as will their partners in crime, with Nicklas Backstrom listed at 107 points and Evgeni Malkin at 97 points.  That is definitely a plausible top four picks in anyone's draft, if you ask me.  Also, in terms of partners in crime, the Sedin twins come in 5th and 6th, Daniel Sedin coming in with 37 goals and Henrik Sedin with 30 goals, both with 96 points each.

I can't say that the top 10 in scoring rounds out with anyone out of the ordinary.  Marian Gaborik might be comfortable enough to finish 7th with 94 points, Steven Stamkos is quickly becoming a favourite with 93 points, Patrick Kane also has 93 points and so does Joe Thornton.  I wouldn't say any of these guys don't deserve to the be there, but it should be a good race for the top 10,

From the goaltending side of things, there are some pretty conservative numbers in their predictions, as if to say parity will reign supreme in 2011.  Ryan Miller is the only 40-game winner on the list and leads all goalies in point projections with 92 points.  That doesn't even crack their top 10 players, but close otherwise.  Roberto Luongo shows a solid 2nd place with 86 points, as does Jaroslav Halak (but with less wins).  Having Halak this high is quite the gamble, I really wonder how many people will bite on that and how well he'll do for them.  Martin Brodeur, Ilya Bryzgalov, Miikka Kiprusoff and Pekka Rinne all have 84 points in their projections, which doesn't surprise me, while Steve Mason rebounds with 82 points.

Some other quick surprises on the goalie list has Thomas Greiss outdueling Antero Niittymaki in San Jose for the number one job, Ondrej Pavelec doing the same to Chris Mason and Johan Hedberg only getting 10 points in New Jersey.  Those are all worth a raise of the eyebrow to me, at the very least.

On defense, it really is hard not to like Mike Green at the top of the chart, especially with the potential top scorer in the league on his team.  Those are going to be some very valuable power play points that top Green off at 79 points in 2011.  Drew Doughty ranks second, no surprise to me, with 66 points and I think that kind of effort will lead him pretty close to a Norris Trophy, if they hold out to be true.  Duncan Keith, Dan Boyle, Lubomir Visnovsky, Shea Weber, Chris Pronger, Mark Streit, Alex Edler and Erik Johnson are all scheduled to hit over 50 points, which looks about right.  I also like inclusions to the 45+ points players like John Carlson in Washington and Keith Yandle in Phoenix.

Finally, a little bit on the rookie class.  The Forecaster does not have a great side-by-side comparison of the rookie class in its publication, they are just sprinkled through the top 500 skaters, so it takes some digging.  Jordan Eberle leads this class again in projections with 52 points in Edmonton, followed by Taylor Hall with 46 points, John Carlson has 45 points, Tyler Ennis in Buffalo has 44 points, Logan Couture in San Jose has 43 points, PK Subban has 43 points, Michael Grabner has 41 points in Florida, as does Tyler Seguin in Boston and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson has 29 points.  It's an interesting rookie class, I wouldn't mind seeing a bunch in the draft this year.

Again, I'm not sure I would use these guides to the letter, but they do provide good reference to some players and a subtle reminder not to forget others.  Since I am not holding the 28th of September, we still have training camps to assess before making some final projections for the coming season.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

The Hockey News 2010 Ultimate Pool Guide

It's the middle of August, the hockey pool draft date has been set and now it's time to start looking at the pool guides that are being released for some Summer home work. Sure, we still have 44 days until the draft, but if you don't start doing your homework now, you'll rush yourself and possibly make some key mistakes when drafting, something you might regret 24 hours after the draft has concluded. Granted, last year, I wasn't paying attention while running the draft and I regretted a pick only 24 minutes after.

Generally, I like reading these books for the subtle reminders of certain players, more than their actual numbers themselves. Going into the hockey pool drafts, it is a good idea to have your own theories and projections, just so you feel a little more comfortable yelling names out at the draft. There looks like there is plenty of reminders for all sorts of players in this year's edition, so get a good look in.

Again, like last year, I'll work my way through, finding their top player according to points, then tops by positions for my draft and then we'll find some surprises and some other players to key in on. If you have a certain idea about a player or two, especially the rookies and such, and the guides are close to what you are thinking, you might have a pretty good match all the way around.

Last season, the Hockey News had Evgeni Malkin repeating as the Art Ross Trophy winner in 2010 and we all know how well that turned out. For the end of 2011, the Hockey News has gone with Sidney Crosby to take the title this year, projected to pot 116 points.  That doesn't mean that they don't like Malkin anymore, since he's rated 3rd among skaters with 108 points and Alexander Ovechkin is slotted right in between with 115 points.  Last year's eventual Art Ross Trophy winner, Henrik Sedin, is down in 9th with 90 projected points in 2011, with some of the usual suspects sprinkled in between.

I wouldn't say that there are any real surprises in the top 10 this year, possibly a bit in the order, but that's all personal preference anyways.  I don't doubt that there will be a solid race between Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin for 1st overall at my draft this year and they are slotted about right in the rankings here.

In the goaltending department, the Hockey News has it out for Roberto Luongo to take advantage of all that extra defense in 2011, leading all goalies with 44 wins and 6 shutouts, which translates into 100 points for my pool, not including the possible assists that could be picked up as well.  Jimmy Howard, Martin Brodeur, Ryan Miller, Pekka Rinne and Steve Mason are all in the running with 90+ points according to their list, which makes it all very interesting and gives a little extra hope to the Central Division for more picks higher in the draft.

Antti Niemi is in the top 10 in wins on the list and he is still listed with the Blackhawks, which is a bit of a stretch, while Marty Turco is still an unrestricted free agent on this list and was given only 28 wins, which should go up with the Blackhawks.

The Hockey News doesn't seem big on Antero Niittymaki taking over the number one job with the Sharks, giving him only 28 wins and 4 shutouts with the Sharks, which I think is a huge issue.  I like Niittymaki to just stand in there for 30 wins and steal whatever else he gets.  That's just me though.

The defense scoring looks about right though with Mike Green continuing to lead the way into the 2011 season with a projected 76 points.  Drew Doughty comes in second (and rightly so, in my opinion) with 68 points to his name this coming year.  Duncan Keith, Sergei Gonchar, Lubomir Visnovsky, Dan Boyle and Mark Streit round out the names in the top 110 worth of skaters.  I might have my order a little different, but the theme remains fairly similar at this point in the Summer. 

As for the rookie class of 2011, there are some sweet names that you might want to pick up this year, but will you sell the farm and get them too high or wait them out and see if you can get them on a bargain.  The Hockey News has Jordan Eberle as the top rookie point-getter in their projections, sitting with 59 points.  I don't mind that number at all, it looks good on him.  Tyler Ennis of the Sabres has shown some flashes in minor appearances, his inclusion doesn't surprise me at all at 56 points.  Taylor Hall has 53 points on the list, Tyler Seguin has 47 points, P.K. Subban has 47 points, Nazem Kadri has 41 points and none of those numbers look unreasonable to me right now.

It's a pretty nice looking publication again this year and I'll probably be reading it from cover to cover a few times, just to get some good ideas.  Don't forget to check out the sleepers!

Sunday, August 23, 2009

The Score's 2010 Fantasy Guide

Well, here we are with the last of the three fantasy hockey guides that I bought last year and I haven't seen anything else out in stores, so I'm guessing this is where I'm going to stop.

The Score and Forecaster combine together again to put together another good and thorough look at the year that is upon us, including a few seasons ahead for young players. Of course, the pull-out cheat sheet might also be a big help, especially when you're checking off players that have been picked in your pool. Make sure you get a good read though their sleepers section, there is a lot of good players that you could pick up for some extra points in the late rounds of your pool.

What I'm really after is to look at some of the top players, including the top three forwards in the pool, who all figure to be the top players in your fantasy scoring (but we'll be using my scoring, which is pretty straight forward). The Score is the only one of the three magazines to pick Sidney Crosby as their top player in pool scoring, as they have him pegged for 117 points, the highest point total among the three publications as well. Alex Ovechkin is the unanimous decision between the three as the second best pick, scoring 112 points (including 61 goals), and then the other usual suspect, Evgeni Malkin, scoring 109 points. The top three wasn't really going to change, but I have a feeling that every draft is going to be different, but you can't really go wrong with anyone of those three players.

Are there any surprises in their top ten? You bet. Jason Spezza comes in at 10th with 91 points, which could be a huge stretch. The Senators have plenty of issues with their personnel, including Dany Heatley (who is slated to pick up 85 points, according to this guide), who had wanted out of Ottawa. The acquisition of Alex Kovalev (72 points) may help Spezza out, but I can't see a top ten finish for him.

In the goaltending slots, there is a tie in points between both Miikka Kiprusoff and Roberto Luongo, picking up 94 points each, but Kiprusoff takes the title by the number of projected wins, as he is predicted to have 44 wins, where Luongo has only 40, but more shutouts. Rounding out the top three is another one of those usual suspects, as Evgeni Nabokov is set for 39 wins and 5 shutouts for 88 points. It's hard to go wrong with those three at the moment, but Nabokov's name is swirling around in trade rumours. As long as he's in San Jose, he should be okay.

Marty Turco was somewhat of a surprise in the top ten in wins, as he's slated for a 78-point season. The Stars didn't do a great job of improving their team in the off-season, which may not translate well to his win count, so I would be weary of his projected numbers. Nikolai Khabibulin winning 36 games is also kind of a stretch, saying that the Oilers are likely candidates for the playoffs, which also doesn't seem too likely.

On defense, it does look a wee bit different, but that's only the third one in the top three. Mike Green continues to lead the pack and the Score has him scoring 29 goals and 46 points for 75 points, ranking him 39th among skaters, which could be a low second or high third round pick. Andrei Markov is only listed as being 10 points behind in Montreal, listed for 65 points, but is ranked quite a bit lower among all players. In third, it's Nicklas Lidstrom who finished third in defensemen scoring, listed with 61 points in Detroit, which doesn't seem to be out of the question at all.

Looking through their list of defensemen, I did see a bold prediction, saying that Tom Gilbert of the Oilers will break out for 52 points this season. Could the arrival of Khabibulin really create more offensive chances for Gilbert? It really looks like the Score is pushing for the Oilers to finish in the 8th spot in the West.

The Score does a good job in listing rookies in their magazine and listed them by position. It's too bad they don't designate them on their cheat sheet, but we'll work with what we've got. Any idea who they have as their top rookie this year? Yeah, it's unanimous again with the selection of John Tavares. Tavares is ranked 99th among all skaters with 57 points, including 32 goals. They also predict an easy Calder win for the number one overall pick this past summer. Ville Leino ranks well again with 53 points, including 24 goals. Rounding out the top three is Cody Hodgson with 46 points in Vancouver, including 19 goals. No real surprises in the rookie race.

Finally, the last comparison is the expectation of who will be the number one goalie in Toronto will be. The Score suggests that the two goalies will more or less platoon the position, with Jonas Gustavsson getting a little more action and winning a few more games than Vesa Toskala. Gustavsson is tabbed to win 23 games, while Toskala has been listed with 19. The Pooler's Guide suggested that Gustavsson was going to take the job, while the Hockey News was saying more towards a platoon as well. Don't be in a big hurry to pick a goalie from Toronto... especially if you weren't to begin with.

The Score's guide is pretty good, especially for their youth section. This could benefit more for keeper pool leagues, especially those who keep a lot of players. I think the Score is probably my favourite of the three again, just because there was some more reasonable numbers for the goalies and they do have a better look at young players. This is the one I would personally recommend.

Friday, August 21, 2009

The 2009 Edition of the Poolers Guide

The review of hockey pool guides continues today, as I purchased the Pooler's Guide from 'Hockey - The Magazine' yesterday. This again is one of the flashier publications out there, which is really great to look at and they seemingly do a greater depth for keeper pools, listing a lot of salaries and give some advice accordingly.

Again though, I want to go over the same points I went over with the Hockey News guide, giving you an idea of what to expect out of the magazine. If you have the same idea about some of the top players, you may have a little more faith in what they say about the depth players when it comes to crunch time.

Exactly like the Hockey News before it, the Pooler's Guide predicts that Evgeni Malkin will re-capture the Art Ross Trophy with 115 points. I really can't say that I'm surprised, as it does seem really easy to call a repeat performance with Malkin, as he does a lot to make his game look so effortless. Next on the list, it's Alex Ovechkin with 114 points, including 60 goals, and then Sidney Crosby forms the top three with 110 points, with only 40 goals. It seems like these three will be the favourites across the board for the top picks in any pool.

The new entry into the top ten which raised an eyebrow of sorts was Nicklas Backstrom, Ovechkin's centre in Washington. I can't say that I'm terribly surprised, as he'll likely be a huge help to Ovechkin's 60-goal campaign. Backstrom finished 11th in pool scoring last season, so there really is no stretch, but his inclusion did stick out a little bit at 98 points. By comparison, the Hockey News has Backstrom in 12th among skaters at 90 points.

There is a big difference when it comes to goalies, as the Pooler's Guide has Miikka Kiprusoff as the far-and-away favourite in net, with 44 wins and 8 shutouts for 104 pool points, 6 points clear of Evgeni Nabokov in San Jose. Martin Brodeur returns to the top three with 42 wins and 6 shutouts for 96 points.

No real surprises in the top ten in goaltending. Ray Emery ranks 12th among goalies with 33 wins and 5 shutouts, while Semyon Varlamov is expected to split duty with Jose Theodore and pick up 22 wins and 3 shutouts. Theodore is expected to have 28 wins and 2 shutouts.

Mike Green is again the top projected defender, as he should be, with 30 goals and 43 assists in Washington, a bit more conservative than the Hockey News' 78 points. Also coming in 2nd and 3rd (respectively) is Andrei Markov in Montreal and Scott Niedermayer in Anaheim. Let's not be too surprised here, let's just take this information and use it wisely, as you don't want to sell the farm on players that will only just eclipse the 60-point barrier.

Next up on the review is the rookie race in 2010. Last season, the Pooler's Guide went out on a limb and went with Kyle Okposo to take the crown, but this year, they have decided that they will follow suit on the hype parade, choosing John Tavares to runaway with the points race, scoring 22 goals and 30 assists for 52 points. Ville Leino, who is still considered a rookie in Detroit, comes in at number two with 40 points, while Cody Hodgson and Matt Duchene will each pick up 38 points. Victor Hedman should be the top defender, according to their list, with 25 points this season, far less than the Hockey News' prediction.

Of course, now we come to the big free agent acquisition of the Maple Leafs, Jonas Gustavsson. According to the Pooler's Guide, he will take over the starting job from Vesa Toskala, winning 25 games with 2 shutouts, while Toskala only picks up 12 wins and 2 shutouts. Do you jump on the Gustavsson bandwagon when the time calls for a Leafs goalie?

The magazine doesn't bring a lot of new news to the table at the top of the lists, but there is some differences in the middle which could be contentious. Keep a close eye on what you want and keep the injury prone players away from your team, if at all possible.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

The Hockey News Pool Guide... in 2009

It's that time again, everyone. The fantasy guides are starting to filter their way onto magazine racks all around, as there are some people just itching to start doing their homework for the 2009-'10 season.

The first one that I have found on the shelves is the publication from the Hockey News, which seems to me to be a little thicker than last year. It does seem a touch more comprehensive as well, but still has the team-by-team breakdowns, which do give you some idea of what to look for with every NHL team.

The Hockey News are calling for a repeat winner for the Art Ross trophy in Evgeni Malkin, as they prognosticate a 115-point season for the Russian centre. It will be a 40-goal season for him as well. It should come as no surprise to see Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby up at the top of the list as well, calling for 110-point seasons for each of them. If the Hockey News has their way, it could be a high scoring year.

There is one surprise, I think, in the top 10 of their scoring list, seeing newly-signed Ranger, Marian Gaborik, is scheduled to have a 94-point season in the Big Apple. I suppose if he does play in the 74 games that he is forecasted for, he could come close to that total, but I think it's a bold prediction, nevertheless.

In goal, Evgeni Nabokov is forecasted to be the top keeper, according to my points system, as he should finish up with 108 points, ranking him 4th among all players. Both Miikka Kiprusoff and Roberto Luongo end up in the top three again, finishing with 100 points each, which is good for all those Northwest Division fans out there.

Semyon Varlamov and Ray Emery emerge in the top 10 goalies, which might come as a small surprise as individuals, but since they are on Washington and Philadelphia, respectively, they should be able to pull in quite a few points, assuming that they keep their number one jobs.

No big surprises on the blueline, as Mike Green should re-take the crown for top-scoring defender. THN has Green scoring 33 goals and adding 45 assists for a pretty impressive 78 points. That could put him in really good shape as a second or third round pick, depending on how deep your draft is. Andrei Markov and Scott Niedermayer round out the top three with 64 & 63 points, respectively.

The next big question I have is always about the rookie race. Last year, no one really saw Steve Mason, Bobby Ryan or Kris Versteeg really coming... instead the eyes were all focussed on Steven Stamkos. This year, THN focuses on John Tavares, Nikita Filatov, Cody Hodgson and Evander Kane, who are all expected to top 50 points in the coming year. There are also some high expectations for rookie defensemen, Matt Gilroy in the Big Apple and Victor Hedman in Tampa. Both of these players would be in Calder contention with 40+ point seasons under their belts, without a doubt. I think this year's rookie class is something to be excited about.

Also, keep a close eye on Jonas Gustavsson, the free agent signing for the Leafs. THN suggests that he could walk away with 23 wins and 3 shutouts, which puts him in pretty good shape for being a second goalie. The number seems really ambitious, especially since they have Vesa Toskala winning 28 games as well. That's a pretty good playoff spot if it does happen.

There are some numbers in this book that seem a tad lofty, but it does seem to point you in the right direction again. I'm not sure I would follow it to the letter, but I would base some assumptions on it.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

The Score's 2009 Fantasy Guide

Another good magazine that I've used in the past couple seasons for getting some good hockey pool drafting ideas comes from The Score, by the way of The Sports Forecaster. Last season, it was a pretty good publication and this year seems to be about the same. The best part of the Score's fantasy guide is that they provide a Draft Day Cheat Sheet pull-out that gives you an idea of the top 500 skaters and the top 50 goalies.

So far, I've already looked at the Hockey News (THN) and Hockey - The Magazine (HTM) and their respective pool guides and now I'll have a quick look at the things I wanted to see in the first two and see how the Score's matches up.

First off, the Score continues the trend that Sidney Crosby will be the best skater in the bunch, with a whopping 127 points. The second best player remains Alexander Ovechkin at 117. Five skaters eclipse the 100-point mark, while only three players will beat the 50-goal mark. The new name that's in the top 10 players from the other two publications is Anaheim Ducks forward, Ryan Getzlaf. A bold prediction for the 23-year old.

In the interesting points of note category, those near retirement or un-signed at the moment, Mats Sundin, Teemu Selanne and Joe Sakic. Sundin and Selanne are both pegged to have big seasons, provided they sign on in time to have a complete season with their respective new teams. They are both scheduled to have a 75-point seasons, which is theoretically good enough for a second round draft pick. Would you take them that high? Sakic, on the other hand, is the only one who has signed, but is scheduled to only have a 60-point season.

The next section of interest goes into the rookie campaign. The Score's guide has Kyle Turris taking the rookie scoring crown with 55 points this year. First overall draft pick, Steven Stamkos, is forecasted for 48 points in his rookie campaign, while Bobby Ryan is pegged for 42 points and Kyle Okposo is up for 41. A very limited rookie class, by the Score's measurement. In the way of Swedish free agent signing, Fabian Brunnstrom, the Score has him down at 39 points in Dallas.

In net, it's another conservative set of prognostications, as Marty Turco leads the pack with a miniscule 86 points, which would put him at a lower first round spot. The Score doesn't predict a single 40-game winner or 100-point goalie, so you'll have your hands full with this set of numbers. Henrik Lundqvist comes in second in points with 84, while Marc-Andre Fleury rounds out the top three with 82.

On the blueline, the top scorer comes from Calgary, Dion Phaneuf. The Score has him pegged for a huge year with 72 points in 80 games. Sergei Gonchar will do well with 69 points, Nicklas Lidstrom should register 67 points, while Mike Green could be a 20-goal scorer with 63 points.

The guide also has some pretty good articles to point you in the right direction for some sleepers, which is a little more helpful than the other two publications. They will also have an updated cheat sheet online which you can print off at the end of September. Very helpful!

Thursday, August 28, 2008

The Pooler's Guide from 'Hockey - The Magazine'

Sure, the Hockey News has provided some interesting food for thought about the coming season and how to apply their prognostication to your local hockey pool draft, but I thought I would deviate a bit from the norm and pick up something new. So new to me was the magazine, Hockey - The Magazine, which wins for very creative title. They have produced a pretty eye-popping pool guide for the coming season, which I've almost lost all interest in the numbers and focused on the pretty pictures and colours.

Once I got past all the busy colours and layout, I tried to really get down to the numbers and get an assessment of where this magazine was heading with their predictions and projections. In all honesty, they are a little more conservative, if you can be, with their numbers.

Sidney Crosby does continue to lead the pack, which seems to be inevitable in most circles, while Alexander Ovechkin trails behind yet again. "H-TM" only projects four players to eclipse the 100-point mark, while only one player (Ovechkin) passes the 50-goal mark. Now, that's very conservative. There only seems to be one difference between the two publications top 10 players list in scoring... THN has Marc Savard in their list and H-TM includes Daniel Alfredsson.

Let's continue to compare in my interesting points of note: Joe Sakic finishes with 69 points, Mats Sundin finishes with 77 and Teemu Selanne finishes with 58. Somewhat comparable, but still conservative in the older free agents (although Sakic has signed now).

The rookie race sees a bit of a surprise winner in Kyle Okposo taking the crown with 65 points. Kyle Turris and Steven Stamkos finish back in the pack with 52 and 43 points, respectively. Another rookie that will get some attention this season is Fabian Brunnstrom, who is pegged for 30 points in 60 games by H-TM.

In net, the top goalie is Martin Brodeur at 98 points, while Evgeni Nabokov trails at 96 and Roberto Luongo and Miikka Kiprusoff are both expected to be at the 90-point mark. Those numbers are very close to the THN numbers, but Marc-Andre Fleury trails behind those four, instead of being second.

On the blueline, Nicklas Lidstrom does continue his dominance at a reasonable 68 points, while Tomas Kaberle is pegged to have a big season in fourth spot with 56 points. A point worth noting, especially if Bryan McCabe does eventually get dealt to Florida. Otherwise, it's the same cast of usual suspects on the blueline.

Certainly being conservative doesn't hurt when you play in the Hockey Pool, so it's well within reason to take this publication to your draft and read from it. It does pose quite a few good thoughts in it's articles, which is helpful in making up your mind. At the end of the day, you may want to make sure you can cheer for your team as well... if you don't like a guy like Sean Avery, maybe you shouldn't worry about what the books have to say and move past him, even if he is the next best player available.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

The Hockey News Pool Guide

With the Mats Sundin situation still fresh in the news, the possible trades of Bryan McCabe, Jay Bouwmeester and Nikolai Khabibulin on the burner and four teams still sitting below the salary cap floor, it does seem to me that releasing your Hockey Pool Guide may be a little pre-mature in a lot of cases, although the information that the Hockey News provides in theirs is pretty good. Especially when it comes to the rookies who are likely going to make the league in the coming year, although I've already done mine, so I won't have to go through that now.

Absolute predictions from the Hockey News may not be the way to go for your hockey pool draft, but it should give you some indication of where to go when you're in dire need of ideas.

Nothing should come as a big surprise in the top 10 skaters as Sidney Crosby leads the way in the points lead, but Alexander Ovechkin will return to the goal lead with another 60-goal campaign. Eight players are projected to hit the 100-point mark, while four are expected to pop in 50 goals or more.

Interesting points of note: If Joe Sakic, Mats Sundin and Teemu Selanne return for another year, the Hockey News would project them all to be in the top 100 skaters, at 78, 75 & 66 points respectively; Steven Stamkos & Kyle Turris will be in the top 100 skaters as well at 63 & 61 points, with Stamkos eventually taking the the Calder Trophy; Martin Brodeur will return to being the top goalie in goalie points (according to the Sherpa's scoring) at 102 points, with Marc-Andre Fleury and Miikka Kiprusoff not far behind (96 & 92); Fabian Brunnstrom is expected to notch 54 points in Dallas; and finally Nicklas Lidstrom will be the top producing defenseman at 69 points.

I do suggest picking one of these up for hockey pool draft, I know I'll have at least this one sitting with me for others to use at my hockey pool draft on October 7th, but in order to get some homework done, it's a good magazine to use.