Pool Outlook for Edmonton

If there was a statistic for expectation levels going into the regular season, you would think that the Edmonton Oilers would lead the league in it for the last few seasons.  The drafting of so much upper-echelon talent with some premier draft positions has garnered them absolutely no success and there still doesn't seem to be any movement to make changes in the team's front office, so naturally you would think that expectations might tail off for the 2015 season, right?

Even under the guidance of new head coach Dallas Eakins, another high profile pick-up for the Oilers, the story remained somewhat the same.  Watch the top scorers play their way for a little while, see that it doesn't play defense very well, try to teach these top players to play both ways and then the offense dries up, which hurts the overall confidence of the team and then everything dries up until nothing matters anymore.

President Kevin Lowe, GM Craig MacTavish and their staff have another shot at putting the right pieces in place for another crack at getting out of the Western Conference basement and it may take something drastic, rather than trying to add another piece to this jumbled puzzle that they have already assembled.

Taylor Hall has been the only real exception to the faults of this Oilers franchise, as his play has continued to get better as the years have gone on.  Hall led the Oilers with 80 points in 75 games in the 2014 season, which ranked him 13th in pool scoring overall, making him into a legitimate 1st round pick in just about any fantasy league out there.  He does continually get better and a top 10 finish doesn't seem to be out of the question, assuming that he can stay healthy for the year.

Jordan Eberle (65 points in 80 games) bounced back from a bit of a drop in the 2013 season, finishing 44th in pool scoring and he got some help from David Perron, who was acquired from the Blues in the off-season and had a career-year with his new team, scoring 57 points in 78 games.  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also saw a small increase in his career rankings, finishing 81st in pool scoring with 56 points in 80 games.

On the blueline, Justin Schultz didn't quite have the impact that he had in his rookie season, as his scoring ranking dropped from 149th in the shortened 2013 season to 249th, with only 33 points in 74 games.  Schultz didn't get much offensive support from his other blueliners, as Andrew Ference was next best at the end of the year, finishing with only 18 points in 71 games.

The goaltending carousel for the Oilers in 2014, had some interesting spins.  What had started with Devan Dubnyk and Jason LaBarbera, ended up as the duo of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth, both acquired in deals during the year.  Some may have argued that the goaltending wasn't necessarily the issue during the team's sub-par performances and the acquisitions of Scrivens and Fasth seemed to help those arguments, because even though they played well, the team still couldn't tread water in the standings.  Scrivens finished 177th overall in pool scoring with 41 points, a good portion coming from his time in Los Angeles, while Fasth only managed 10 points, thanks to injuries in the year between Anaheim and Edmonton.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Oilers are going to play a role in the hockey pool next year and I'm sure Hall will be a big part of the scoring race again.  It will be the pieces that the management team puts in place, which will decide how much of an impact the number one goalie, Scrivens or Fasth, will have on the rest of the league, meaning that there may or may not be some extra points in there somewhere.

That extra pieces likely won't come from the draft this year, rather they will have to make a play for some veteran help, which gives the team a little bit more stability throughout their line-up.  A good two-way centre and an offensive defenseman that the team doesn't have to worry about in his own end have to be among the top two pieces they're looking to acquire.  Then we might have an Oilers team that is worthy to pick from throughout their line-up.

Despite some of the slack that the Edmonton management takes, they have managed to address their blueline concerns with some pretty good prospects over the last couple of seasons, but of course, not every blueliner is going to make immediate and sustained impacts, so allowing them to grow before jumping in is important.  Going into training camps this year, I'll have my eye on Oscar Klefbom and Martin Marincin, who have now hit their 20's and could be ready for that jump.  2013 1st round pick, Darnell Nurse, has been drawing some rave reviews this past season, but I would be surprised if he walks onto the roster in 2015.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

It appears as though unrestricted free agency will help with a bit of the roster cleaning that the Oilers need this Summer, as forward Roman Horak and defensemen Denis Grebeshkov and Anton Belov have all reportedly signed in Europe, while Ben Eager doesn't appear to be coming back.  Restricted free agency doesn't appear to be the biggest concern either, as it is mostly depth players that are without a deal, heading into the Summer.

Salary cap-wise, I believe that the Oilers have some real flexibility again this year, especially with the projected cap number going up to $71.1 million.  I am only seeing 11 locks for their roster in the 2015 season, which only takes up $42.7 million of that total and that gives them seven forwards, a pair of defensemen and their goaltending tandem.  They will feed from their talent pool of forwards and defensemen, but they won't exactly take a huge hit from any of those players, leaving some space for some quality acquisitions.  If the Oilers were to also make a move with one of their top 11 players, they could also take on a little bit more salary, if needed.

The Oilers currently hold the number three pick in the Entry Draft this year and that could open them up for business.  Even though the team has some quality coming up the ranks for their blueline, it would seem like Aaron Ekblad would still be the best pick for this organization going forward.  Should Buffalo and Florida take both Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett, there is a good chance that Ekblad could fall to the Oilers.  Should Ekblad be swooped up by one of the two teams ahead of the Oilers, I would dangle that 1st round pick to a team that has one of those assets I had mentioned earlier, which would propel this franchise into a better state.  The Oilers will have options, but they are now coming to the point to which winning now is far more important than building for the future.

Already in these pool outlooks, I have talked about how good management is key to the rebuild process and the Edmonton Oilers are the case for fans of other teams not being keen on their team going through a tear down before a rebuild.  Yes, the Oilers have been toiling at this whole rebuild for some time now and it is wearing on their fan base, which at the end of the day, is what you want to avoid, since it is the fan base that is helping to pay most of the bills.  How much time does this front office have left to get it right?

My prediction for the Oilers in 2015 today doesn't reflect well upon what they have in the bank, so far.  The Oilers are likely to make a big push in the off-season to help accommodate their goals for the playoffs, but these goals get pushed further from their grasp, as every team gets the benefit of a raised cap ceiling and the talent pool for free agency isn't quite as deep as it once was.  If the Oilers can persuade two or more key free agents to join their cause, I would go so far as to say that they will finally start pushing for a playoff spot, but I would rather suggest that very little will change until the Old Boys Club of Former Glory move out of the way for some more relevant hockey thinking.  I don't expect to Oilers to improve without significant change.