Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Kesler Undergoes Hip Surgery

The Vancouver Canucks announced on Tuesday afternoon that forward Ryan Kesler had undergone successful hip labral surgery, which is expected to keep the Selke Trophy winner out for 10-to-12 weeks.

Worst case scenario, the 12 weeks, would put Kesler back in action around October 25th, which would mean he would miss the first three weeks of the season, give or take a few days.  Kesler had reportedly had this surgery once before and he was on the better side of the projected return dates, so we might be able to take that into consideration, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Kesler finished 30th in pool scoring in 2011 with 73 points in 82 games, which will now take a small discount in projections for the 2012 season.  If Kesler returns on the 25th against the Oilers, he will have only have missed eight games, which should be your adjustment going into the pool, possibly discounting by 6-to-12 points overall, counting in some rust shaking games.

Devils Buyout Hunter and White

On Monday, the New Jersey Devils placed newly-acquired forward Trent Hunter and veteran defenseman Colin White on unconditional waivers with the purpose of buying out the remainder of their contracts.  On Tuesday, the process was completed, as both players cleared waivers and were handed their walking papers and a portion of the remaining years on their deals, opening up cap space for the Devils going forward in the 2012 season.

Hunter, acquired in the deal that sent Brian Rolston to Long Island, looked like he could be a good fit in the team's bottom six on paper, but that obviously didn't seem to be the case for Devils management, who likely had the intention of buying him out since the day of the deal, making the extra cap space for Rolston leaving that much better.

Trent Hunter buyout from CapGeek.com
2011-12: $666,667
2012-13: $666,667
2013-14: $666,667
2014-15: $666,667

A career New Jersey Devils defenseman, White has seen some of the best years in the swamp and wallowed through some of the worst years, including the 2011 season, but that didn't seem to save his relationship for the 2012 season, as they have now cut him loose.

Colin White buyout from CapGeek.com
2011-12: $1,000,000
2012-13: $1,000,000

Salary CapBefore these buyouts went down, the Devils were holding on to 20 players (13 forwards, five defense, two goalies) and two buyouts already on the books for a projected cap hit of $56.8 million. Take down a forward and a defenseman, add two more buyouts, and the team's projected cap hit for the 2012 season will be $53.4 million, a savings of $3.4 million.

Monday, August 01, 2011

Nabokov Willing to Play

A positive turn of events for the New York Islanders on Monday, as it was announced that goaltender Evgeni Nabokov would indeed play for the team in the 2012 season, if the team so chooses to keep him on board for the regular season.

Nabokov played a good portion of the 2011 season in the KHL, but ended up being released from his deal and became an NHL-eligible unrestricted free agent midway through the year.  In January, the free agent goaltender signed with the Detroit Red Wings, hoping to give a very strong team an extra boost for a playoff run.  Unfortunately for the Red Wings, any player that has played in Europe during the same regular season that he is signed in has to clear waivers to be eligible to play for that team.  As we all know, Nabokov did not clear those initial waivers, claimed by the Islanders the very next day.

An interesting article posted today had Nabokov quoted as saying that he was nowhere near ready to join the Red Wings as soon as he was signed on, not having skated and/or played in well over a month, saying that the Wings were prepared to wait for him to prepare, to give the Central Division club some more depth in net.  Since the Islanders had claimed him, they were not going to head towards the playoffs and it was going to be fruitless for him to get into shape for only a small period of the season.

With that all said and done, Nabokov will prepare for the 2012 season with the Islanders, still on the 1-year, $570,000 deal he signed with the Red Wings, which carries over due to him not playing in 2011.  The interesting thought will be where Nabokov fits in or whether or not the Islanders will keep the goaltender for the coming year.  Nabokov should be able to attract some good trade offers with teams that may need some goaltending, the Islanders may look seriously at that, since they still have a franchise goaltender (in theory) with Rick DiPietro.

I think we'll all keep a close eye on this situation, this could have some serious pool implications, especially if he can win the starting job here.

Projected Top Six Defenses

I've got some time this afternoon, I thought I would have a look at the current projections for top six defensemen in the league, just for shits and giggles. I was curious, thought I would look at a number of elements and compare by division. The elements that I've decided to look at are scoring, experience (age), future potential, size and cap value (descending order).  The only non-measurable element that I have of the five is potential, but in my mind, that takes what their youth looks like in this top six and ranks it objectively (if possible).

To qualify for the projected top six, the players do have to be signed, which does leave a few names out in the cold, but this is by no means scientific.  It's just a comparison, giving myself (and whoever decides to read this) an idea about what's going on.

Andy GreeneAndrew MacDonaldDan GirardiMatt CarleKris Letang
Henrik TallinderTravis HamonicMarc StaalKimmo TimonenPaul Martin
Mark FayneMilan JurcinaMicheal SauerAndrej MeszarosZbynek Michalek
Anton VolchenkovMark EatonMichael Del ZottoChris ProngerBen Lovejoy
Matt CorrenteMike MottauRyan McDonaghBraydon CoburnBrooks Orpik
Adam LarssonMark StreitSteve EmingerAndreas LiljaMatt Niskanen

2011 Scoring: PHI, PIT, NYR, NYI, NJD
Experience: PHI, NYI, PIT, NJD, NYR
Potential: NYR, NJD, NYI, PIT, PHI
Size: PHI, NYR, NYI, NJD, PIT
Cap Value: PHI, PIT, NJD, NYR, NYI

The projected top six defense corps in the Atlantic Division looks fairly dominated by the Flyers, as they have some great scoring numbers from last season, all kinds of experience from top to bottom, massive size and inevitably, cost the most.  The Penguins do have plenty of offense in their six, not to mention some decent experience and they cashed in last Summer, which would suggest that they have a shot at doing some great things.  The Rangers are the wild card of the five, to me, as Del Zotto and McDonagh have the potential to really put their six into the spotlight.  They might not have the experience, but they have the potential to lift their scoring to great heights, all for a reasonable cap hit.

Zdeno CharaChristian EhrhoffP.K. SubbanErik KarlssonJohn-Michael Liles
Joe CorvoTyler MyersJaroslav SpacekSergei GoncharDion Phaneuf
Dennis SeidenbergJordan LeopoldYannick WeberFilip KubaCody Franson
Johnny BoychukAndrej SekeraHal GillChris PhillipsCarl Gunnarsson
Andrew FerenceMike WeberJosh GorgesMark CarknerMike Komisarek
Adam McQuaidRobyn RegehrAndrei MarkovBrian LeeKeith Aulie

2011 Scoring: BUF, BOS, TOR, OTT, MTL
Experience: BOS, OTT, MTL, BUF, TOR
Potential: TOR, MTL, BUF, BOS, OTT
Size: BOS, TOR, BUF, OTT, MTL
Cap Value: TOR, BOS, MTL, BUF, OTT

The Northeast Division has a very good blueline battle on their hands, pretty well across the board.  The Sabres bought a lot of talent in the off-season, the Bruins swapped out some pieces, the Canadiens are still reeling from their injuries last year, the Leafs have the potential to start scoring back there, while the Sens are still growing into a new identity.  The Bruins and Sabres will lock up into some great battles, but the Canadiens could shoot past with a healthy Markov, while the Leafs can play the wild card, especially if Franson and Aulie turn up trumps with their potential.

Tomas KaberleBrian CampbellBrett ClarkDennis WidemanDustin Byfuglien
Joni PitkanenDimitri KulikovVictor HedmanJohn CarlsonTobias Enstrom
Jamie McBainEd JovanovskiPavel KubinaRoman HamrlikRon Hainsey
Bryan AllenMike WeaverEric BrewerMike GreenJohnny Oduya
Tim GleasonKeaton EllerbyM-A BergeronKarl AlznerRandy Jones
Jay HarrisonErik GudbransonMattias OhlundJeff SchultzMark Stuart

2011 Scoring: WPG, WAS, CAR, FLA, TAM
Experience: TAM, WPG, CAR, FLA, WAS
Potential: WAS, FLA, WPG, TAM, CAR
Size: TAM, WAS, CAR, WPG, FLA
Cap Value: WPG, WAS, TAM, CAR, FLA

The Southeast Division hasn't necessarily been known for their defensive prowess, more so their offensive skills, in the past few seasons.  The Jets will come into the 2012 season, boasting a very offensive top six with Byfuglien and Enstrom leading the way.  Passed those two, the team may want to hold on for dear life.  The Capitals, with a healthy Green on their side, should move back up into the top spot in the blueline scoring this coming season, especially with the addition of Hamrlik to the side.  The Panthers are definitely the wild card of this division, adding players via trades and free agency, plus the potential of Gudbranson is currently off the charts.  Tampa is getting older, not so much savvier, while Carolina will play hard, but something is lacking, I can't quite put my finger on it now.

Brent SeabrookJames WisniewskiNicklas LidstromRyan SuterAlex Pietrangelo
Duncan KeithFedor TyutinNiklas KronwallKevin KleinKevin Shattenkirk
Steve MontadorKris RussellIan WhiteFrancis BouillonCarlo Colaiacovo
Sean O'DonnellGrant ClitsomeBrad StuartBrett LebdaBarret Jackman
Sami LepistoRadek MartinekJonathan EricssonJonathan BlumRoman Polak
Nik HjalmarssonMarc MethotMike CommodoreTyler SloanKent Huskins

2011 Scoring: DET, CHI, CBJ, STL, NAS
Experience: DET, CHI, NAS, CBJ, STL
Potential: STL, NAS, CBJ, DET, CHI
Size: CHI, CBJ, STL, DET, NAS
Cap Value: DET, CHI, CBJ, STL, NAS

The Red Wings and Blackhawks are really running away with this competition in the Central Division, especially with the arbitration hearing of Shea Weber to happen on Tuesday for the Predators. Even Weber's numbers won't help the Predators too much in some cases, except for possibly size and cap value.  The depth in Chicago and Detroit are hard to match in this division, while the Blues have all the potential in Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk on their side, not to mention a still-growing Polak.  The Jackets may have added some help, but Wisniewski can still be a bit wild, unsure if he'll really be able to help in Columbus, unless he gets some good help of his own.

Marc GiordanoErik JohnsonRyan WhitneyMarek ZidlickyAlex Edler
Anton BabchukJan HejdaTom GilbertNick SchultzDan Hamhuis
Jay BouwmeesterRyan WilsonTheo PeckhamJared SpurgeonKevin Bieksa
Cory SarichMatt HunwickLadislav SmidMike LundinSami Salo
Chris ButlerRyan O'ByrneCam BarkerClayton StonerKeith Ballard
Brendan MikkelsonShane O'BrienJeff PetryGreg ZanonAaron Rome

2011 Scoring: CAL, VAN, COL, EDM, MIN
Experience: VAN, MIN, CAL, COL, EDM
Potential: EDM, COL, CAL, MIN, VAN
Size: COL, EDM, VAN, CAL, MIN
Cap Value: VAN, CAL, EDM, COL, MIN

With the defense sorted top to bottom by their 2011 scoring numbers, this list from the Northwest Division looks somewhat misshapen.  This division should look a little bit more dominating, but the names and the order in which they appear doesn't look all that formidable.  The Flames ran away with scoring among their six, since their six stayed healthiest throughout the year, which helps, especially for fantasy pools.  The Canucks used 13 defensemen all year in 2011, plus they lost Christian Ehrhoff to free agency, which didn't help.  The Avalanche gained some serious size, but also took on some liabilities while they were at it.  The Oilers didn't add much to their blueline for the coming year, which could hurt, while the Wild look mediocre below Zidlicky.  The systems will be important in this division, as no one really seems too far ahead, unless four of the teams were ahead of Minnesota.

Lubomir VisnovskyAlex GoligoskiJack JohnsonKeith YandleDan Boyle
Cam FowlerStephane RobidasAlec MartinezAdrian AucoinBrent Burns
Toni LydmanTrevor DaleyRob ScuderiMichal RozsivalJason Demers
Kurtis FosterNiklas GrossmanMatt GreeneDerek MorrisMarc-Edouard Vlasic
Francois BeaucheminAdam PardyWillie MitchellDavid SchlemkoJim Vandermeer
Luca SbisaSheldon SourayDavis DrewiskeRostislav KleslaDoug Murray

2011 Scoring: ANA, SAN, PHO, DAL, LOS
Experience: PHO, DAL, SAN, LOS, ANA
Potential: ANA, DAL, LOS, PHO, SAN
Size: LOS, SAN, PHO, DAL, ANA
Cap Value: PHO, SAN, ANA, LOS, DAL

There is a lot of blueline talent in the Pacific Division and we are still waiting for Drew Doughty to join this list for the Kings, as he is still an unsigned restricted free agent defenseman.  The Ducks are stacked with scoring, the Sharks are not too far behind, the Coyotes have lots of experience, the Kings are pretty big and the Stars could have a nice wild card with Souray in their line-up, come October.  With the addition (and subsequent extension) of Burns to the Sharks line-up for the coming year, I would say that they would have to have the most dangerous six defenders of the five teams, which could put them over the top when the playoffs roll around again.  They will be a ripe team to pick from for the hockey pools, I expect most of them to fly off the lists.

Top five teams in each measurement...
2011 Scoring: BUF, ANA, DET, SAN, CHI
Experience: DET, PHI, PHO, TAM, BOS
Potential: ANA, STL, NYR, WAS, FLA
Size: COL, EDM, TOR, CAL, BUF
Cap Value: PHI, DET, WPG, VAN, CHI

Sharks Give Burns an Extension

Without even having to play a game with his new team in the 2012 season, defenseman Brent Burns has now signed a 5-year contract extension with the San Jose Sharks, raising an eyebrow or two around the league. The deal is reportedly worth $28.8 million, which works out to be a $5.76 million cap hit per year, which will put him among the elite defensemen in the 2013 season.

In 2011, Burns was ranked 14th among all defensemen in scoring, picking up 17 goals and 29 assists in 80 games for the Minnesota Wild, which looks really good. The Wild were not a very good offensive club, yet Burns still managed to pick up some points and make a solid season out of it.

The 26-year old defenseman was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2012 season, but a serious commitment from the Sharks has now been made to a good defenseman, making a potentially dangerous pairing of himself and Dan Boyle for at least the next three seasons.

I don't think this deal necessarily changes any projections for his points for next season, especially since he likely saw a pretty big adjustment moving to an offensive juggernaut like San Jose this Summer.

Top 10 RFAs, Ranked by Pool Points

Restricted free agency has been quite the safety net for NHL clubs and their young stars, who are still in their early contracts.  Teams have a lot of extra pull when it comes to Group II free agency, up until the years go by and the games are being played, but otherwise, the ball is really in the original team's court.

Of course, lurking in the shadows of the restricted free agent process is the offer sheets, which have rarely been used in years past, but always lingers as a certain possibility.  Compensation for signing a player from an offer sheet is getting to be awfully high, especially having to give up anything like a 1st round draft pick, if not four of them.

OFFER                                         COMPENSATION
$1,020,348 or below                      None
Over $1,020,348 to $1,545,981     Third-round choice
Over $1,545,981 to $3,091,963     Second-round choice
Over $3,091,963 to $4,637,944     First-round and third-round choice
Over $4,637,944 to $6,183,925     First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,183,925 to $7,729,907     Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $7,729,907                            Four first-round choices

There were a few RFAs on the list at the beginning of July that would have commanded such a high compensation, Steven Stamkos, for example, would have been near the top of the list, picking up a cap hit of $7.5 million per season with the Lightning and was likely to get something a bit more substantial from another club, trying to lure him away.

Looking at the list below, I think we could agree that there are a couple names still on the list, who will get some pretty big money out of the off-season.

Shea Weber, 25, defense
2011 points: 48 points in 82 games, 136th overall, 10th among defensemen
2011 cap hit: $4.5 million

The Predators' pillar on defense is headed to arbitration on Tuesday, which could be quite the battle of wills, when it comes down to the nitty-gritty of the situation.  It is beginning to sound like the process will finish in a 1-year deal, but the dollar figure could be the real point of contention.  In his age range, on defense, scoring 46-to-50 points in a season, Weber could be looking at anywhere between $5.8 million (Seabrook) to $3.5 million (Letang).  I would assume that Weber will push for some top end dollars, could even try and fetch as much as $6 million, but arbitration will set him straight.

Blake Comeau, 25, forward
2011 points: 46 points in 77 games, 149th overall, 108th among forwards
2011 cap hit: $650,000

Comeau is another player who is still scheduled to go to arbitration in the off-season, his hearing is scheduled to go on Thursday, the last player on the list to head to arbitration.  That means he is free from the threat of an offer sheet from another club, but if he hasn't settled by this point in the Summer, there is a good chance that he will head to the hearing near the end of the week.  Now that he is a full time player, I would imagine he should be eligible for a pretty good raise from the club, just not great money right away.

Brad Marchand, 23, forward
2011 points: 41 points in 77 games, 187th overall, 136th among forwards
2011 cap hit: $822,000

Marchand found a good niche with the Boston Bruins in their Cup winning season, becoming a fairly clutch scorer (especially in the playoffs) and quite the agitator, playing against some of the opponent's best players.  Marchand is still too young to qualify for arbitration, but with only one good season under his belt, I think it would have been quite the gamble for other teams to put a dollar figure on his potential value, with the possibility that they might pay too much for him in the end.  His raise will be good, but it could very well be a short-term deal, for value purposes.

Drew Doughty, 21, defense
2011 points: 40 points in 76 games, 201st overall, 25th among defensemen
2011 cap hit: $3.5 million

Doughty is just coming off of his entry-level deal this Summer, which begs the question, how much is he going to be worth going forward and for how long?  It's hard to deny that Doughty has the tools in place to be a top end defenseman, already having a Norris Trophy nod in his back pocket in such a short time.  A bit of a down year still had him 25th among defensemen in scoring, but couldn't lift the Kings into the playoffs, which may have hurt his stock in negotiations.  I expect the Kings are pushing for a long-term deal with a great bargain of a cap hit, which may not be going over too well from the players' camp.

Josh Bailey, 21, forward
2011 points: 28 points in 70 games, 305th overall, 219th among forwards
2011 cap hit: $1.725 million

A 9th overall draft pick in 2008, Bailey hasn't really found his groove in the NHL as of right now, working hard to get a regular spot with the Islanders, but not finding the best of luck in the process.  Bailey was thought to have the potential to be a very good set-up man for the Islanders, but has not shown much in the way of assists.  Patience on the Island should be there for him, but it may be a question of how much is actually left.

Kyle Turris, 21, forward
2011 points: 25 points in 65 games, 344th overall, 237th among forwards
2011 cap hit: $2.7 million

The Coyotes knew when they drafted Turris, 3rd overall in 2008, that they would need to be patient to harness his true potential in the NHL.  Even now, Turris hasn't quite filled out into a solid size for his NHL career and thus, he has still been spending time refining his game in the AHL.  With his entry-level deal now up and a new deal needing to be in place, I couldn't see the Coyotes looking at Turris as a long-term solution, especially dollars-wise, today.  I would expect shorter deals, allowing him to earn the bigger money.

Luke Schenn, 21, defense
2011 points: 22 points in 82 games, 387th overall, 78th among defensemen
2011 cap hit: $875,000

One of the good things about Schenn going into his restricted free agent negotiations, is that he plays a shutdown brand of defense on a team than appreciates shutdown defensemen. With 22 points in 2011, Schenn almost exceeded some early expectations and growing into his role with the Leafs will definitely do that for the kid.  I fully expect to see Schenn pick up a very solid 4-or-5-year deal out of free agency, with a dollar figure that may not be correlated with his offensive numbers, rather his value to the team as a top-four defensive defenseman.

Zach Bogosian, 21, defense
2011 points: 17 points in 71 games, 448th overall, 95th among defensemen
2011 cap hit: $2.6 million

Taken two spots ahead of Schenn in the 2008 entry draft, Bogosian has plenty more offensive expectations attached to his name as a young player in an entry-level deal.  He has certainly shown flashes of some offensive talent, but those flashes may have been stifled a little when the Thrashers acquired Dustin Byfuglien from the Blackhawks last Summer, pushing young Bogosian down the charts a little.  I could definitely reason with the Jets, as to how much they should actually be looking to pay Bogosian and for how long, especially with a franchise top-two already in place.  Short-term, less money, possible trade bait?

Shawn Matthias, 23, forward
2011 points: 16 points in 51 games, 467th overall, 307th among forwards
2011 cap hit: $795,000

Matthias is now out of his second NHL contract, and is still struggling to find a regular spot with the Florida Panthers.  With the Panthers going spending crazy in the off-season, Matthias' worth may have been taken down a notch or two, which will likely hurt the kid's negotiation process.  Personally, I can't see Matthias being with the Panthers for too much longer, if he wasn't going to be signed and a part of the initial process of rebuilding, but that's just me.

Mikkel Boedker, 21, forward
2011 points: 14 points in 34 games, 505th overall, 324th among forwards
2011 cap hit: $1.725 million

Boedker is very much in the same position as his teammate above him, Turris, as a player that hasn't necessarily been rushed into the big leagues, but at the same token, should have probably shown a few more flashes of brilliance by this point in his career.  Still, patience is still a good commodity in Phoenix, especially with management, but the dollar figures coming out of a new deal will likely show that he'll be paid market value going forward.