Saturday, June 07, 2014

Pool Outlook for Detroit

For a season that seemed to go wrong at just about every turn, the Detroit Red Wings still made the playoffs, keeping their North American professional sports streak alive for their 23rd season.  Now, it's not how you make it into the playoffs, of course, it is just the fact that they made it, which is an amazing feat as it is, even if it was by the skin of their teeth.

The injury losses were among the league worst, as their best players were sidelined for large amounts of time.  Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk, Justin Abdelkader, Dan DeKeyser, Darren Helm, Jakub Kindl, Todd Bertuzzi, Jonathan Ericsson and Stephen Weiss all suffered injuries through the year and were nowhere near as effective as they could have been.

The Red Wings contingency plan out of the AHL, to their credit, was exactly enough to get the team through the tough periods, showcasing the talents of Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar, who both helped the team through a jam.  The Red Wings were also able to do some quality work in the trade market, picking up David Legwand from the Predators, providing a huge boost to the team down the stretch.

Speaking of Legwand, he ended up as the player with the highest point total that finished the regular season in a Detroit Red Wings jersey.  Despite playing only 21 games for his new club, his season between Detroit and Nashville was better than any other Red Wings player, so he gets the nod in the Pool Outlook this time around.  In 83 games played, Legwand finished with 14 goals and 37 assists for 51 points, scoring at a rate of 0.61 points per game, which ranked him 105th overall in pool scoring.  It will be interesting to see if Legwand will get rewarded for this coveted spot in off-season writing or left to go to free agency in the Summer.

The Red Wings forwards were a hurting bunch, as only four forwards, including Legwand above, finished in the top 100 in pool scoring for forwards.  Alfredsson (49 points in 68 games), Nyquist (48 points in 57 games) and Zetterberg (48 points in 45 games) rounded out those forwards and you could see the number of games played was astonishing.  Nyquist was the most interesting of the bunch, as he couldn't start the year with the Red Wings, due to salary cap constraints, but once the Long Term Injury Reserve was put into action, space opened up and the 24-year old Swede showed his stuff.  With all of the injuries that had occurred, there really isn't much

The blueline for the Red Wings wasn't as much of a problem through the season, but it wasn't without its hiccups as well.  Niklas Kronwall had a pretty good season, picking up 49 points in 79 games, ranking 10th among all defensemen in pool scoring through the year.  Dan DeKeyser, despite missing a stretch of time, still ranked 75th among defensemen with 23 points in 65 games.  Brendan Smith (19 points in 71 games) and Jakub Kindl (19 points in 66 games) were the only other two to rank in the top 100 in the category.

Goaltending had their fair share of issues, between injuries and uncertainty, as Jimmy Howard did take the better portion of the starts, winning 21 games and picking up 46 points in 50 starts, but Jonas Gustavsson, when he was healthy, was the more effective goalie, winning 16 games for 32 points in only 26 starts.  Both goalies certainly had their moments in the year, but an inconsistent line-up likely added to some tough times in the crease.

2015 Pool Outlook

I don't know if there is any way that the 2015 season could get much worse for the Red Wings, as it was in the 2014 season.  Well, I suppose the wear and tear from all those major injuries could be detrimental to the aging process of some of their older players and they could miss the playoffs completely, so there are a couple ways it could be worse.  I don't see anyone really knocking down their projections for the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg, just because of one harsh year, but it may be in your best interest.  It could be a slippery slope for these two, who are not as fast as they used to be... no matter how creative they may be.  If you're looking to pump some tires for the Red Wings, your best bet may be to go after Nyquist, Jurco or Tatar.  To sum it up in a nice little package, the outlook is rather uncertain.

The Red Wings are not really known for their young talent, but they do have the Canadian Hockey League goal scoring champion, Anthony Mantha, who made a name for himself at the World Juniors this past year.  This kid is definitely got some upside to him, even if his 200-foot game is deemed questionable.  The Red Wings may also have a bit more talent coming on the blueline, as Xavier Ouellet saw some time with the big club this past season and may earn his way on for 2015.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The Red Wings have quite the crop of unrestricted free agents to be on their list, which includes their leading point-getter, David Legwand and the 41-year old Daniel Alfredsson, who is currently contemplating his future going forward.  You can also list Jonas Gustavsson, Todd Bertuzzi, Dan Cleary, Mikael Samuelsson and Kyle Quincey on the list as well.

There are a few key restricted free agents to look after in this off-season, as forwards Tomas Tatar and Riley Sheahan will need new deals out of their entry-level contracts, while defenseman Dan DeKeyser is also out of his entry-level deal and will need some new ink.

The salary cap number for the Red Wings is a bit of a fickle bit of calculation, as Jordin Tootoo, who is signed on for the 2015 season, may not see the light of day in the NHL next season, so his cap hit will change, due to burial rules in the CBA, but for now, I have him in the roster at full price.  You never know, he could make another push.  So, with Tootoo, I have the Red Wings with 19 active players, 12 forwards, five defensemen and a duo of Howard and Petr Mrazek in net, coming in at a cap hit of $51.9 million.  This gives the team ample room to move around, a little bit of space, if Alfredsson wants to come back or Legwand wants to sign long-term (assuming those are options).  The Red Wings don't have to fill many gaps this year, so they could be dangerous on the free agent market.

The Red Wings are not doing bad, in my estimation, at keeping some talent waiting in the wings and someone always kind of pops up out of nowhere for the club.  The Red Wings are also never really in a rush to push kids up to the big leagues, so a kid like Dylan Larkin, a Detroit kid, playing centre, already with good size, has some commitments to the University of Michigan, looks like he would be a good fit down the line.  The Hockey News has him listed as a heart and soul forward, which could be an element that the team needs in a few years, as their heart and soul may be lost to retirement of some of those players.

The approach that the Red Wings have taken over the last few seasons has been somewhat impressive, as they haven't traded away many assets to get some of their veteran help, so they've remained patient with what they have in the cupboard, spending money at free agency to fill gaps and the 2014 season was a good example of how it worked out in their favour.

I can't see the Red Wings having nearly as difficult of a year in 2015, rather the bodies that they missed for most of the year should be good to go and I think that's going to be the difference between then and now.  Datsyuk and Zetterberg should be back with a vengeance, while their up-and-coming talent like Nyquist and Tatar have a bit more experience.  Their back end is learning to live without the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom now and the goaltending will come around with the overall team confidence.  Things can change with the coin flip of fate, but I would think that the amount of things that need to go wrong for this team to not make the playoffs is improbable.

Pool Outlook for Dallas

The Dallas Stars, as an organization, have been travelling the right way in their building process, as they were able to secure a top end centre for their scoring winger, playing in front of a franchise goaltender and they've been able to add some reasonable depth, which led them to the playoffs in the 2014 season, nearly making it out of the opening round too.

Arguably, they are still a couple to a few pieces away from really being that contending team, especially in a skill-rich Western Conference, but you can at least see which way they are going.  They have been able to draft some quality talent, which has made some leaps into the NHL already and they are accumulating more talent that can fill in for pieces that move on through other deals.

If there is one knock on the Stars at the moment, it is that they are not quite moving as fast, in the franchise department, like some of their Central Division rivals.  The Colorado Avalanche were shot out of a cannon in 2014, while the St. Louis Blues are hitting their maturation point now and the Chicago Blackhawks are in full stride.  This is the sort of thing that can hurt a team's confidence, but as long as they stay motivated, with a clever addition here and there, the Stars could be just another force in this league full of parity.

In only his fourth full NHL season, first with the Dallas Stars, Tyler Seguin showed why he was a 2nd overall pick in 2010 or even why he should have been selected 1st overall that year.  Seguin was able to flash some real brilliance in a number of games in the 2014 season and his numbers reflected his brilliant year.  Seguin finished with 37 goals and 47 assists for 84 points in 80 games, finishing 9th overall in pool scoring, 4th among forwards.  After this season, I think we can legitimately include Seguin in the hunt for the 1st overall pick in hockey pools conversation.

It wasn't just Seguin up front, as he played as a great compliment to Jamie Benn, as they worked a huge 1-2 combo for the Stars this past season.  Benn scored 34 goals and 45 assists in 81 games, just a shade under a point-per-game, as they went buck wild over a few teams this season.  Once you get past Benn though, it does get thin rather quickly.  Benn was ranked 18th in pool scoring, then the next forward on the team was ranked 229th overall, Cody Eakin, with 35 points in 81 games.  Alex Chiasson (35 points in 79 games), Valeri Nichushkin (34 points in 79 games) and Ryan Garbutt (32 points in 75 games) round out the forwards with young talent, but they all need a little more maturing before they elevate the status of the Stars as a whole.

The Dallas blueline wasn't the biggest treasure trove of points for the hockey pools, but Alex Goligoski led an okay defense corps with 42 points in 81 games.  That was good enough for 22nd among all defensemen, 166th overall in pool scoring.  Trevor Daley (25 points in 67 games), Sergei Gonchar (22 points in 76 games) and Jordie Benn (20 points in 78 games).  The blueline certainly has some room to improve, if the team is going to make their way up the ranks as well.

In goal, the Stars relied heavily on their number one guy, Kari Lehtonen, who did well in 2014, finishing 14th overall, 7th among goalies in pool scoring, finishing with 80 points in 65 appearances for the Stars.  He won 33 games, 5 by shutout and added 4 assists in the year, doing his part to help out at both ends of the ice.  The Stars also showcased a few other goalies, including acquiring Tim Thomas from Florida at the trade deadline, but Thomas only featured when Lehtonen was resting for the playoff run.  The team didn't really give a chance to any of their youngsters, opting to try for wins, instead of giving experience.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Stars turned a lot of heads in the 2014 season and there could be a good rush to some of their better players at the hockey pool draft this Fall.  Seguin, Benn and Lehtonen will all be top prizes for teams, either 1st or 2nd round picks and taken with confidence.  There should be some interest in some of their younger talent, as Nichushkin played himself into a good depth role, while Garbutt came out of nowhere and should feature as a late forward pick with bargain power.  Let's not forget Goligoski... he'll be a good mid-round blueline pick, especially if he's on the power play with the big guns.  Things are looking up for the Stars.

The Stars have a few roster spots open for some young players to slide into and I think the marquee name of the bunch may be Jack Campbell, who may feature as Lehtonen's back-up in the 2015 season.  Campbell was a 1st round pick in 2010 for the Stars and has spent the better part of the last two seasons with the Stars' AHL affiliate, so he has had some time working on his pro game.  I would imagine the team will also give a look to forward Radek Faksa and defenseman Ludwig Bystrom, but there will be no rush for them to make it into the line-up.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The Stars have a couple of 40+ year olds hitting the market, if not retiring, this Summer, thanks to unrestricted free agency.  Forward Ray Whitney and goalie Tim Thomas lead the parade and it will be of interest to see what happens with these two.  Whitney had 32 points in 2014, while Thomas had 37 between Florida and Dallas.

Restricted free agency features a few players that featured well for Dallas in 2014, as forwards Cody Eakin and Antoine Roussel and defenseman Brenden Dillon all need new deals this Summer.  Prospects Scott Glennie and Cameron Gaunce are also up for new deals as well.

Eight forwards, four defensemen and a couple of goalies (including Campbell) come in at a very reasonable $48.1 million against the cap, leaving plenty of room against the $71.1 million projected cap ceiling for nine more roster holes to fill.  There are a couple names who may make their way up from the reserve list to the roster, but I would think that the Stars will look to be a player in the market first, before doing much for promotions.

With the aging defense corps the Stars already have, namely Sergei Gonchar, I think the Stars would benefit from finding an offensive defenseman, giving a little more help to Goligoski down the line.  There are a couple of options available in a few lists that I've seen, but playing in the West would likely require a little bit more size, so it would seem more likely, with these two specifics, that a kid like Jack Dougherty could be taken with the 14th overall pick.  Dougherty appears to be headed to college for a couple years, but it appears that he could be a good pick-up for a franchise that is building well.

I think there has to be a grain of salt taken with the excitement surrounding the Dallas Stars.  As it has been outlined, the Stars have a good core group of players, but in trying to make moves to find the right mix of depth, there are chances that those moves can make the team fall flat or just not generate anything.  In these days of parity, it is on management of these teams to make those right decisions, thanks to input from their scouting staff and other key figures.  It doesn't take much to fall off their perch, especially since they had the last wild card spot this year.

With already covering Vancouver, Nashville and Arizona through these Pool Outlooks, it really goes to show how tight the Western Conference is and if one of those teams is going to make a push for a playoff spot, it is going to make Dallas' chances of making it again that much slimmer.  With the number of pieces that the Stars need, it wouldn't surprise me if they fell out of the playoff picture, narrowly missing out, but not without a glorious fight.  The Stars are going to score some goals, but their defense still looks a bit suspect on paper, which could be the last nail in the coffin, come the end of the regular season.  The Stars could improve at the position in the off-season, but there isn't much to be had, so I find it unlikely that they can improve enough to fend off another desperate team.

Thursday, June 05, 2014

Islanders Swing For Dan Boyle's Rights


You can't fault the New York Islanders for trying, but since the San Jose Sharks made it public that Dan Boyle was not going to be re-signed, when he goes to unrestricted free agency on July 1st, there may have been some itchy trigger fingers out there to try and get his services.

On Thursday afternoon, it was announced that the Islanders have dealt a conditional 2014 5th round draft pick to the Sharks for the rights to the 37-year old rearguard, giving them ample opportunity to legally talk contract with him.  If Boyle does decide to sign with the Islanders, the 5th round pick then becomes a 4th round pick.

The Islanders were able to sign Jaroslav Halak to a new deal after acquiring his rights from the Washington Capitals, saving his time and effort on the free agent market, so with Halak already in tow and John Tavares & company already making strides in their improvement as a hockey club, it may be enough to entice Boyle to sign.

In the 2014 season, Boyle finished 34th among all defensemen in pool scoring, picking up 12 goals and 24 assists in 75 games for the Sharks.  Boyle would automatically add that veteran player that the Islanders should be looking for in the off-season, something I outlined in my prediction for the Islanders for the coming season.  Boyle would be a huge home run in this case.

In San Jose last season, Boyle came in with a cap hit of about $6.7 million.  I don't see Boyle demanding quite as much as that, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hovered around the $5 million mark, although Marek Zidlicky, of the same age and a higher point total in 2014, only signed for $3 million on Tuesday.  Boyle finished 6 points less than Zidlicky, but he could also look to a future teammate, Lubomir Visnovsky, who will have a cap hit of $4.75 million and is also 37 years old.  "How much do the Islanders want Boyle in their line-up?" will be the determining factor of their offer.

Pool Outlook for Washington

Having a few of the so-called elite players in the league means that missing the playoffs is a huge disappointment, not only for the team, but the league and even us poolies. The Washington Capitals should have been a contender and it may take peeling back a few layers to figure out why they didn't make the playoffs.

Key players on the team were healthy this year, as 11 skaters (forwards & defensemen) played 70 or more games, including their three best forwards and their three best defensemen.  I don't think it's health that was the matter.

Goaltending was a bit of a concern, something that the management team could solve at the deadline, but that fell on its face pretty quickly, as the Capitals managed to snag Jaroslav Halak from the Sabres, but couldn't turn him into any tangible wins down the stretch.

Between some healthy stars and being unable to solve the problems they had locally in the win-loss column in 2014, it cost both management and coaching their jobs, as GM George McPhee was not renewed to a new deal and head coach Adam Oates was fired.  The Capitals have made some changes already, including former Predators coach Barry Trotz going behind their bench.  The Capitals are among those teams that everyone will be watching intently and it looks like it will be for a good reason.

The name on the marquee for the Washington Capitals, Alex Ovechkin, did a good portion of what he's meant to do for the team and that's score goals.  Ovechkin led the league with 51 goals in 2014, the only 50-goal scorer during the season, but was only able to register 28 assists, which kept his overall points number down to 79, playing in 78 games during the year.  That had him ranked 16th overall in pool scoring, 8th among forwards.  Ovechkin will still be a good bet to be in the top 10 picks in the upcoming hockey pool draft, but it had to be somewhat of a disappointing year, up until the World Championships, where he did win gold for Russia.  A consolation prize for not medaling in the Olympics or making the playoffs in the NHL.

Ovechkin's main pivot, Nicklas Backstrom, also had somewhat of an underwhelming season, also with 79 points (18 goals & 61 assists) in 82 games.  The Capitals depth has been a question mark over the last few years, so they definitely need their best players to be hovering in the 90-100 point range in the year.  The drop off in forwards went all the way down to Joel Ward, who finished with 49 points in 82 games and then it was Marcus Johansson, who ended up with 44 points in 80 games.  Troy Brouwer and Jason Chimera played as decent depth forwards, with 43 & 42 points, respectively, but it just wasn't enough for the Capitals in the year.

Offense from the blueline also suffered a little, as Mike Green only finished with 38 points in 70 games, finishing as the 29th ranking defender in pool scoring.  Green has had seasons in the upper echelon in defenseman scoring, but those days may have passed him by now.  John Carlson finished close by, with 37 points in all 82 games.  Karl Alzner will get a nod here, as he finished 99th in defenseman scoring in 2014, picking up 18 points in all 82 games, possibly just on the outside looking in from being valuable for the hockey pool.

Going into the 2014 season, it was looking like Braden Holtby had the lock on the number one job and it was his to lose.  Unfortunately for Holtby, he did find himself in some stretches where he didn't get to play at all and the job was left to either Philipp Grubauer or Michal Neuvirth, up until the trade deadline, that is.  Neuvirth went to Buffalo and Halak came in and changes were abound.  After it was all said and done, Holtby still finished with 45 starts, winning 23 games, registering 4 shutouts and adding 2 assists for 56 points, good enough for 18th among goalies.  Not a terrible year, but not the year that he was looking for, I'm sure.

2015 Pool Outlook

I wouldn't necessarily be afraid to go after some Washington Capitals next season, frankly, I would think that a few of the star players are due for a bounce-back season after somewhat of a down year in 2014.  Ovechkin could very well score 60, Backstrom should hover around 90 points and Holtby can find a few more starts, therefore more wins, so the Capitals should be a better team in 2015.  The coaching change will make the biggest difference, seeing whether or not Trotz will let his stars go loose, let them rip and then let the rest of the team clean up the mess.  I guess we won't know exactly until the pre-season.

Likely, the most exciting prospect to watch out for in this year's hockey pool draft will be Evgeny Kuznetsov.  The 22-year old dynamo was able to appear in 17 games for Washington before the end of the season and showed some real flair in a number of games, something that will make him a very attractive piece to pump your hockey pool team up.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency may do away with one rental player and a player they signed as a free agent the Summer before, as both Dustin Penner and Mikhail Grabovski are both set to hit the open market in July.  Both players finished with only 35 points on the year and neither were all that impressive in their time in Washington.

The only real notable restricted free agent on their list is goaltender Philipp Grubauer, who would be the number two goalie for the Caps, if nothing else was done to acquire more talent in the position.  I don't imagine he would be much trouble to sign on for another year or two.

The Capitals are not doing too bad, when it comes to their roster and space left to add a few pieces.  I currently have Washington in with 11 forwards, six defensemen and Braden Holtby in net for a cool $54.8 million, leaving the team with roughly $16.3 million to add five more bodies.  With the cupboards pretty bare on talent, I could see a busy off-season ahead for Washington.

The Capitals could use just about any kind of talent at this point in time.  All of their best prospects are now playing for the team and this will also be the first chance for the promoted assistant General Manager Brian MacLellan to put his stamp on the franchise with a directional 1st round pick.  With the 13th pick, the Capitals may find a little bit more skill with Danish forward Nikolaj Ehlers, who played for Halifax in the QMJHL.  He is one of the few players left on the list that really has an impact tag on his profile and he can likely provide a little more depth in the scoring department, trying to compliment Johansson or Kuznetsov down the stretch.

The Capitals should have been much better in 2014 than they were and ownership has made some heads roll because of that.  The stretch wasn't too great at the management level and MacLellan may have his hands tied a bit with large contracts belonging to Ovechkin, Backstrom and Green, but with the cap going up again, you never know what can happen.  As for coaching, you have to think that Trotz will have a pretty good say into how the franchise goes forward with new management, possibly spending some of that extra cap room wisely on some responsible talent.

I think the Capitals have everything in place that they'll need to improve and make it back into the playoffs.  They have plenty of elite talent up front, they have a coach that can make good defensemen into better ones and even if the team stays with Holtby, they should be fairly sound in net.  Rumours are abound that the goaltending may change, but if it does, there is a good chance they could improve there too, but I would still be confident in Holtby.  I'm looking to the Capitals to have a solid Summer, make a couple more key moves and then deliver in the 2015 season.  With Trotz at the helm, a good playoff run doesn't sound like a crazy idea.

Possible Pool-Worthy Signings This Week

On Monday, the Nashville Predators saved goaltender Carter Hutton from heading to unrestricted free agency, signing him to a new 2-year deal, which has a cap hit of $725,000 per season.  Hutton took most of the reps in the Nashville net when Pekka Rinne went down with his hip infection and ended up having a decent season, finishing with 43 pool points on 20 wins, ranking him 25th among goalies.

It should be fair to assert that Hutton is the front-runner for the back-up job behind Rinne in the 2015 season, which means he could be a good late round pick-up in the hockey pool draft, assuming we find ourselves with a deep draft again next season.

The New Jersey Devils announced on Tuesday that they re-signed veteran defenseman Marek Zidlicky to a new 1-year contract extension, keeping the 37-year old Slovakian blueliner in the fold for another season.

Zidlicky played in 81 games for the Devils in the 2014 season, scoring 12 goals and 30 assists, which ranked him 21st among all defenders in the year.  That should give him a little bit more than a single mention in the upcoming Pool Outlook for the Devils, coming closer to the Entry Draft, as they will be picking 30th this season, no matter what.

Williams Nets a Series Lead for the Kings

Keeping the Los Angeles Kings down appears to be a herculean task in these playoffs this year, because they just cannot be beaten.  Teams have been able to knock them around, put them behind the 8-ball, but they have just found a way to be the better side.

On Wednesday night, the Kings opened up the Stanley Cup Finals at home against the New York Rangers with their eyes on the prize, but had to do a double-take early on, as the Rangers found a 2-0 lead in the 1st period on an unassisted goal from Benoit Pouliot and a shorthanded marker by Carl Hagelin.  An early lead hasn't derailed the Kings before, as they were able to pick up a goal before the end of the opening frame from Kyle Clifford, his 1st of the playoffs.

In the 2nd period, the comeback, as unremarkable as it was, was completed by Drew Doughty, who scored a beauty, short-side on Henrik Lundqvist.

From the tying goal through the end of regulation, it was pretty much all Los Angeles, putting the pressure on, but Lundqvist did well to keep the home team from taking it in the first 60 minutes.  The Kings outshot the Rangers, 20-3, in the 3rd period and the standout goaltender from Sweden had to make some unbelievable stops for the win.

Unfortunately, it was all for naught, as the defense in front of Lundqvist, because much like the Doughty goal in the 2nd period, Justin Williams had all kinds of time in front of the Rangers net, as he found just enough space to put the winning goal in and just like that, the Kings had a 3-2 win in overtime and a 1-0 series lead.

ImplicationsThe only team in the top seven not to get 3 points in the opening game was Wes M., but he remained in 3rd place, losing a point on 1st and 2nd place, Travis G. & Corey M..  The result really didn't change much in the standings, rather it kept everything good and tight, ready for Game Two on Saturday night.

Burc B. took an early lead in the Cup Finals scoring, as his was the only team to pick up 5 points in the win.  Burc has Williams, Doughty and Jake Muzzin on his team and it was the perfect combination for the early lead in the round.  Unfortunately for Burc, his team is 13th, 24 points back of 4th place and clawing back a point at a time in these games won't be enough.

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Pool Outlook for Arizona

The Phoenix Coyotes are no more... well, the Phoenix part any ways.  In just a few days, they will be known as the Arizona Coyotes, but that's really the only thing that is going to change for the team going forward.  The new ownership group wanted to make sure that they brought the brand of the entire state to the team, since they don't actually play in Phoenix, it actually makes a little more sense.

How did the Coyotes fare in 2014?  Boy, they were sure close to that last playoff spot in the Western Conference, finishing as the first team out of the picture, only two points back of the Dallas Stars, who had the last wild card spot.  The Coyotes had to rely on other teams, as they didn't keep destiny in their own hands, thanks to a schedule that didn't balance in their favour.

Under Dave Tippett, the Coyotes remain as a solid team that continues to stay in the playoff conversation, despite not making it in the last two seasons.  Tippett took the team to the Conference Finals in the 2012 season and if they were to make it into the Spring Dance again, there is no reason why they couldn't make that push again, as the team thrives as underdogs.

The team in 2014 did struggle to find some consistent offense, which was likely the biggest reason why they didn't make the playoffs, but a few tweaks to the roster for the coming year and they should be back in the conversation.

The 2014 leader in pool points for the Coyotes was goaltender Mike Smith, who went to Sochi as the number three goalie for Team Canada.  Smith chalked up the 6th-best minute total in the NHL, playing in 62 of the 82 games for the Coyotes, but only came away with 27 wins.  He did however provide some offense, getting credit for a goal and 2 assists to go along with his 3 shutouts, finishing with 64 points on the season.  That was good enough for 48th overall in pool scoring, a late 2nd round pick by this year's draft standards, 15th among goaltenders.  Sure, Smith is the backbone for the team, but he can only do so much for a team that ranked 8th in goals for in the West and carried a negative goal-differential.

The team also got some reasonable back-up goaltending from Thomas Greiss, who came over in free agency last Summer from the San Jose Sharks.  Greiss won 10 games with 2 shutouts for 24 points, but was only good enough to be 51st among goalies, not really emerging as a good pool option, thanks to a lack of minutes played.

The next best players on the Coyotes were their blueliners, which likely says something about the team and why they didn't make the playoffs, going back to the goals for argument.  Keith Yandle was 2nd on the team in pool scoring, finishing with 53 points in all 82 games, good enough for 7th in defenseman scoring in 2014.  Oliver Ekman-Larsson finished 15th in defenseman scoring with 44 points in 80 games, which gives Arizona two solid scoring threats from the blueline and both will be hot commodities in the draft next season.  Below those two, the Coyotes didn't get much of a push, but some of their younger prospects did see some time, so there is some potential to come.

Up front, the Coyotes had five players in the top 100 in forwards scoring, but none of them finished in the top 75, so there was a serious lack of punch.  Radim Vrbata and Mikkel Boedker finished 76th and 77th with 51 points each, which isn't nearly enough for this team to push their way into the playoffs.  Shane Doan (47 points in 69 games), Mike Ribeiro (47 points in 80 games) and Antoine Vermette (45 points in 82 games) round out the top five forwards.  All five should be a bit better, but each of them needs a little bit more help to achieve that and that should be the management team's first priority in the Summer.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Coyotes, much like the Predators the day before, are going to be known more as a team that is built from the back end and the better players will either come from the blueline or the crease.  I don't think there is any harm in ranking Mike Smith, Keith Yandle or Oliver Ekman-Larsson in top end positions, since they will be the ones that will have the biggest benefits for your pool team.  The forwards are going to be a bunch that add depth to your pool team, because there is no one really there to carry it yet.  If Arizona can make some head way in the free agent market, maybe we would change our tune a little.

The organization may say differently, but there really isn't a great deal on the shelf for young talent on this team and what they do have may not be NHL-ready or mature enough to play in the restricted/responsible system that head coach Dave Tippett has for them.  Forward Max Domi, was a 1st round pick in last year's draft and did well in the OHL in 2014, but he may have a tough time breaking through.  Blueliners Connor Murphy and Brandon Gormley saw time in the NHL in the 2014 season, but spent most of their time in the AHL, as they draw closer to a regular job.  Neither figure into the 2015 conversation for your pool team, but you should keep an eye on them.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency will see their top forward scorer head to the open market, if the team cannot extend a deal to him before July 1st.  Radim Vrbata heads a list of players that should't raise the eyebrows of many poolies, but the franchise may want to have another look at Thomas Greiss, David Moss, Jeff Halpern or Paul Bissonnette.

Restricted free agents like Brandon McMillan or Andy Miele may get some serious consideration, but the list of young players in need of deals isn't that impressive either.  There doesn't appear to be much to swing the numbers on paper in their favour.

The Coyotes are under new ownership, but I haven't seen any indication that this will make them a bigger spending team in the 2015 season, as the team has been known more as budget team through the NHL ownership days.  Currently, I have the Coyotes locked in with 15 players on their roster, nine forwards, five defensemen and a goalie, at a cap hit of $51.5 million.  This leaves about $19.6 million in the bank, something they could easily spend for the last eight roster spots they need to fill.

Scoring is at a premium for these Coyotes and they need more help and in a hurry.  One name that pops up as a great candidate to become a Coyote would be forward Brendan Perlini, who played for Niagara in the OHL.  Perlini already has a fairly filled-out frame at 6'2" and 205 pounds and is known for his keen goal-scoring skill.  If the Coyotes can use some of their playmaking talents with a natural goal scorer like Perlini, he may be able to pay off immediately, but there are some questions about his conditioning, not anything that couldn't be solved with a solid off-season.

There is little doubt that the Coyotes will be a tough team to play against again in the 2015 season, but they are also going to be a team that plays on a wafer thin board of confidence and things can go South for them, as quickly as they can get back and defend their own end.  More consistent scoring is the going to be the name of the game in the off-season and it will be the tipping point between a good year and another year trying to find more pieces to get them into the playoffs.

I believe that the 2015 Arizona Coyotes will have their success measured against how much they spend against the salary cap.  If the Coyotes are not going to spend more money this year, I can't see them getting much better in the standings.  The foundation of the team is solid and should be able to keep the status quo if nothing is done in the Summer, but that can't be where the Coyotes want to be at this time next year.  The Coyotes want to have had a good playoff run, if not continuing in it at this time.  The Coyotes have solid management and can spend money wisely, but they may still need to make a gamble of some sort and that may be moving on from some of the unrestricted free agents and finding new blood to take their place.  It will be difficult, which leads me to believe that they will fall short of the playoffs again.

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Cup Finals Preview by the Pool Numbers


I don't suppose there were very many people who worked out their brackets to show a New York Rangers & Los Angeles Kings Stanley Cup Final, eh? I could see people choosing one or the other, thinking that their favourite team would make it and then I think the odds would suggest that some people would eventually see this final going down, but it would have to be in very small numbers.

By virtue of the number of selections for both teams, neither were suggested as favourites.  Neither team broke the 100-selection mark in the pool, which means that they were hummed and hawed about and some people thought better of a San Jose or Philadelphia.

The outright favourites were in the Eastern Conference, as people were a little more set on Boston and Pittsburgh doing the most damage, while Chicago and Anaheim were favourites in the West, but it wasn't quite the landslide as the East saw.  No, the collective of this pool didn't see this result coming, but that hasn't diminished the finish in this year's pool, something I'll go over here soon.

The New York Rangers come into this series as the underdog, both in a lack of home-ice advantage and in pool selections.  The Rangers topped out at 71 picks in total, 34 in Boxes 13 through 18 and 37 picks in Boxes 19 through 24.  The wealth here was spread around pretty well and scoring saw much of the same.

This series, the first focus will be on the leading goal scorers for each team and it is decisive for both, clear leaders heading into the Finals.  Martin St. Louis, the human interest story of these playoffs, leads the Rangers hockey pool players with 6 goals, 2 of which are game-winners for bonus points and he ranks 14th in pool scoring going into the series.

The Rangers leader in points, and pool leader by the way, is Henrik Lundqvist, who has 12 wins, 1 shutout and an assist for 27 points, tops among everyone on the sheet.

Yes, the top six teams in the pool, all have three Rangers, as they all have six players left in these playoffs.  I think there is a subtle combination of both throughout.  Travis, our pool leader going into the Finals, has St. Louis, Rick Nash and Lundqvist on his side, which would suggest that he had the Rangers to go all the way in his mind.  2nd place, Corey M., will carry Derrick Brassard, Marc Staal and John Moore, which is a lesser trio, but players are still there to give him a chance.  3rd place, Wes M., has Nash, Mats Zuccarello and Moore, which isn't a bad trio, although Moore has yet to score a goal.  Our 4th place team, Gus M.'s first team, has Nash, Zuccarello and Lundqvist, which has some punch to challenge.

On the Los Angeles Kings' side, they do come in as the favourites, by virtue of the regular season standings, getting home-ice advantage, the series starting on the West Coast on Wednesday night and they also have the backing of the hockey pool as well, taking 87 selections.  It was a 36-51 top and bottom line split for them, with the bottom line (defense) getting the better focus.

Jeff Carter has been a force in these playoffs for the Kings, as he leads his team in goals among his fellow selection sheet players with 9 tallies in his favour, none of which have been credited as game-winners, so no bonus points there for him.  I would think that he would be due for a bonus point or two in these Finals, if the Kings were able to win some games.

And to no one's surprise, the leading point-getter for the Kings through three rounds is their goaltender as well, Jonathan Quick.  Quick is only 1 assist back of his Finals counterpart, Lundqvist, finishing the Conference Finals in 2nd place in pool scoring with 26 points.

What combination of Kings do our current money holders have on their side, you ask?  Travis has Carter, Slava Voynov and Quick on his side, which looks very formidable at the moment.  Corey has Drew Doughty, Voynov and Quick, which has a slightly less chance of keeping the pace.  Wes has Carter, Dustin Brown and Doughty, which means he doesn't have a goalie in these Finals.  Finally, Gus has Anze Kopitar, Carter and Quick, which may be the best Kings chance yet.

All four pool teams are different in their combinations of Rangers and Kings, so that means it is anyone's game to win yet.

At the end of the Western Conference Finals game blog, I did mention that there was a tie for 1st place in the standings and for a while, there was. Thanks to the ol' hockey pool audit, since live games are never truly final until they are gone over with a fine-toothed comb, a couple of points were added to the pool here and there and that is how Travis has a 1-point lead over Corey going into the Finals.  Of course, another audit will be done at the conclusion of the playoffs, just to make sure that everything is proper and complete.

Good luck to those in the running for the money!

Pool Outlook for Nashville

The Nashville Predators has not missed the playoffs in back-to-back years since they first made the playoffs in the 2004 season. Going into the 2014 season, the Predators had only missed the playoffs twice in the previous nine seasons, but coming out of the lockout-shortened season of 2013 without the playoffs, a return was necessary to keep the framework of the franchise together.

Unfortunately, missing the playoffs by three points, despite winning their last three games of the season, was the tipping point, as it cost the only coach that the franchise has ever known, Barry Trotz, his job.  With some newly-minted high priced talent on their roster, there was an expectation that the team would find their way back to the Spring Dance, but with how tight the West was down the stretch and some goaltending issues in the middle part of the season, the task was far greater than it was likely imagined at the start of the year.

The Predators have since hired on Peter Laviolette to now run their squad, the team's second coach in franchise history, and he'll take on a team that has one of the best franchise goalies in the league, a dominating force on their blueline and a youthful core group of players around them, which can only gain more confidence and be a difficult team to play against in years to come.

The Predators are the second team among those with Outlooks complete to have been led by a blueliner in the 2014 season, as their number one guy, Shea Weber, finished 3rd among all defensemen in pool scoring with 56 points (23 goals and 33 assists) in 79 games played in the year.  Weber was subject to a restricted free agent offer sheet in 2012 from the Philadelphia Flyers, which forced the hand of the Predators to accept the deal, which gave their captain an annual cap hit of $7.86 million per year.  Weber has not disappointed since that deal, but there is only so much one man can do for a team and carrying a team to the playoffs from the defensive position is not one of those things.

Continuing with the blueline start of the 2014 review, the Predators are another one of those teams that are building well from the blueline, as the next five defensemen in team scoring are all under the age of 25, led by Roman Josi, who had 40 points in 72 games, ranking him 26th in defenseman scoring in the league.  Ryan Ellis finished 60th with 27 points in 80 games and rookie Seth Jones finished with 25 points in 77 games, good enough for 68th.  Rounding out the fifth defenseman mentioned was Michael Del Zotto, acquired from the Rangers mid-season, as he finished with 16 points in 67 games between both clubs.

Up front, there isn't a great deal that is going to impress anyone in the hockey pool world, but they'll work hard every game and make an impact that way.  In 2014, Patric Hornqvist led the way for the Preds, finishing with 53 points in 76 games, good enough for 93rd overall in pool scoring, 68th among forwards.  At best, that would have been a 4th round pick in this year's draft, not quite excitement material.  Craig Smith (52 points in 79 games), Mike Fisher (49 points in 75 games), Matt Cullen (39 points in 77 games) and Colin Wilson (33 points in 81 games) rounded out the top five forwards on the team.  Fairly balanced scoring over a season, but they need to pack a real punch these days for playoff hockey.

In net, the team really felt the absence of their number one goalie, Pekka Rinne, who suffered a major infection in his hip, which he had surgically repaired in the off-season last year.  Rinne was supposed to be back in time to start the year and was on schedule, until the setback, early on in the year.  Rinne did manage a comeback, but didn't quite put up his regular numbers, winning 10 games and 2 shutouts for only 24 points.  In his stead, most of the work went to Carter Hutton, who won 20 games with 1 shutout and an assist for 43 points.

2015 Pool Outlook

With the number of players locked up for the 2015 season, 12 forwards, four defensemen and their likely goal pairing, there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of change up coming for the Predators and until we see what their new coaching staff shows us what they plan to do with this squad, I don't think there is any reason why you shouldn't expect a lot of the same from Nashville next season.  Their team will continue to be a hot bed for defensemen, where you could likely take some chances on their young d-men in the upper rounds of the draft, trying to make up some value on the blueline and then add a 100% healthy Pekka Rinne and your pool team should look very reasonable down the stretch.  The forwards still appear to be a hodge-podge of depth talent for your pool team, but that's okay too.

One name that really jumps out in the new crop of Predators that we'll see next season is forward Calle Jarnkrok, who the team acquired from Detroit in the deal that sent David Legwand away at the deadline.  Jarnkrok was one of those top prospects for the Wings, who came to Nashville and made an immediate impact, scoring 9 points in 12 games.  I would assume that Filip Forsberg will get another solid chance to make an impact again with the Predators, while I would like to give Seth Jones his dues, as he had a great rookie season and has some real potential to improve on his numbers, assuming he stays away from the sophomore jinx.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Restricted free agency is going to be an important mission for the Predators, who have a couple of their key blueliners heading for new deals in Ryan Ellis and Michael Del Zotto.  Neither should really be up for big contracts, but they will need some new deals and I would have to believe that they are looking for deals that fit their potential.  Forward Nick Spaling and defenseman Mattias Ekholm are also up for restricted free agency as well.

Unrestricted free agency will be short & sweet for the Predators, as they only have to make decisions on four players, including goaltender Carter Hutton and forward Patrick Eaves.

The Predators, despite a couple of $7 million cap hit players, do not spend to the cap ceiling, remaining as a well-built budget team in the NHL and their numbers are quite impressive.  The 18 players that I have in the projected roster only comes in at $49.9 million, leaving $21.1 million in space before the ceiling.  I can see they only really need to fill a forward spot and a few defensemen spots and if they wanted to blow some cash, they could really make an impact.


The Nashville Predators will be picking in the number eleven spot at the NHL Entry Draft at the end of June and they should be able to find some good talent at this position.  Since the 2014 draft isn't very blueline heavy, I don't see the Predators looking to make a splash with a defender, likely going with one of the better forwards, trying to improve their scoring up front.  With the way I've seen the draft go to this point for the Preds, I think they can come away with some real talent down the middle, taking William Nylander, one of the top-rated European forwards, who has some real potential as a point-getter in the NHL, much like his father before him.  The Predators are rich in Swedish and Finnish talent, so a kid like Nylander could be the perfect fit.

It is going to be a new age for the Nashville Predators in 2015 and it will be something to watch, doesn't matter if they were to succeed for fail under a new head coach.  No matter what happens, their best players have to remain as their best players, as in Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne.  The franchise model looks pretty solid on its foundation, but the proof will be in the pudding, of course.

The basis of a prediction for the Nashville Predators will depend on how much offense they are able to find with the group that they have.  The Predators were 9th in the West in goal scoring and besides a kid like Jarnkrok, I'm not sure that I see enough there to help improve that number at all, at least on paper any way.  Laviolette will have his hands full trying to find some more offense, but they will definitely be able to win games on their defense, not to mention finding some offense from the blueline.  I am going to say that the Predators show some flashes in the 2015 season, but fall short again, as they way they are built right now, they won't show much for improvement on the 2014 season.

Monday, June 02, 2014

Champs Struck Down, Kings Move On

The Hawks are out! photo canadiensbooted.gifDid you catch Game Seven? Wow. That was a game worthy of the billing coming into the match-up, as the Blackhawks and Kings didn't disappoint the casual fan.

The two best suited playoff teams in the West went the distance in a series that was far from the playoff-type hockey we've been accustomed to over the last few years, as the series averaged over seven goals a game and had two overtime periods played in it as well.

In the end, in a 5-4 overtime finish, the Los Angeles Kings dispatched of the current Stanley Cup champions for their own chance to retake the throne, something they only just gave up the year previous.

The Kings were in tough on Sunday night, as they had to travel to the United Center in Chicago to do the deed, which was going to be difficult in itself, but in the end, their patience and belief in their system outlasted the Blackhawks.

The 1st period was quite the circus, as the Blackhawks rushed out to a 2-0 lead, but if you blinked in the second half of the period, you would have likely missed three goals.  In 1:03, the Kings were able to tie the game and then see the Hawks retake the lead, finishing the frame with a 3-2 scoreline.

The middle frame was a little calmer with the Kings tying the game again at the midway point of the period, but the Blackhawks found the back of the net again with a Patrick Sharp power play goal and the Hawks held another lead into the 3rd period at 4-3.

Sure enough, the Kings were able to put more pressure on the Blackhawks in the 3rd, as they managed to direct 14 shots at Corey Crawford, managing to capitalize on an LA bounce, as Marian Gaborik put one off Crawford and into the yawning cage, tying the game at four.  The period had a pretty frantic pace, as the Blackhawks were no slouches in the shot department, pumping 13 on Jonathan Quick, but nothing got passed him in the frame, sending the game to overtime.

Overtime didn't last very long in the deciding game, because it was less than six minutes in before Alec Martinez was able to find some space between Nick Leddy's body & arm, getting a slight deflection past Crawford to win it.

It was quite the rollercoaster of a game, where the Kings didn't have a lead in the game, until it mattered the most... at the final buzzer.

In the penultimate game of the Western Conference Finals, the notable Kings in the playoff pool were Quick, Martinez, Justin Williams, Dustin Brown and Dwight King... all coming away with 2 points each.  From the Blackhawks, it was Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp coming away with 2 points each in their final game of the playoffs.

ImplicationsThe Kings win broke the 3-way tie for 1st place, making it into just a 2-way tie, as Corey M. and Travis G. are locked in at 244 points, Corey moving into 1st with one more goal in the tie-breaker. Wes M. only sits 1 point out of the tie at the top, while Gus M. has one team in the money with 240 points, 5 points up on his second team, which sits in 5th place.

10 teams will go into the Stanley Cup Finals with the maximum six players on their pool teams, including seven out of the top 10 teams.  Four teams, including the 10th place team belonging to Brady J., have five players left, five teams have four players left and the remaining 28 teams have three or less players.  Five teams completely struck out, having no one in the Finals, so there could be a quick drop in the standings for a few of them.

I'll set up a better Stanley Cup Finals preview before Game One, which goes on Wednesday night.

Pool Outlook for Anaheim

The Anaheim Ducks were good this season, really good, in fact.  In the regular season, they were the best team in the Western Conference, finishing with 116 points in the standings, four points clear of the Colorado Avalanche for the top seed in the playoffs on this side.

In the playoffs, the Ducks ran into a Los Angeles Kings team that wasn't going to be denied playing in the Western Conference Finals against the Chicago Blackhawks.  The Ducks lost in seven games to those Kings, in a hard fought series.  The Ducks won three straight games to take a 3-2 series lead, but fell off the pace, losing at home in Game Seven, 6-2, in a drubbing from a team filled with Game Seven legends.

Even though the Ducks were so good in the 2014 season, there are some changes abound for the team, but they come from growth within, more than the absolute need to change to get better.  The Ducks are a healthy franchise and one where us hockey poolies should be looking on a regular basis for some extra points here and there.

It was one of Ryan Getzlaf's best seasons in quite some time, as the Saskatchewan native finished 6th overall in pool scoring, thanks to 87 points (31 goals & 56 assists) in 77 games for the Ducks.  Scoring at 1.13 points-per-game was a very steady pace and he did it in somewhat of a quiet manner, where he didn't spend too many games blowing the doors off arenas to get there... almost Ron Francis-like.  This sort of season has earned him the respect of the hockey writers with a Hart Trophy finalist nod and his peers with a Ted Lindsay Award finalist nod.  I don't think Getzlaf will come away with either, but if I had him on my hockey pool team, I would have been very pleased with his season and that's all that really matters here.

The Ducks also had another potential 1st round pick in pool scoring this year, as Corey Perry wasn't too far behind, finishing 10th overall with 82 points in 81 games, finishing a touch over a point-per-game as well.  No major award nods though.  Nick Bonino led the way for breakout players on the team, finishing 3rd among forwards with 49 points in 77 games, while Mathieu Perreault finished with 43 points in 69 games.  How about a mention for Andrew Cogliano?  He finished in the same neighbourhood, 42 points in all 82 games.  After those four, scoring stayed fairly even across the board, as the team had all kinds of depth scoring in 2014.

The Ducks blueline is the shining example of why the franchise is in such good shape, as their top three scoring defenders were all under the age of 25.  Cam Fowler (22) led the way with 36 points in 70 games, followed by rookie Hampus Lindholm (20), who scored 6 goals and 24 assists in 78 games.  Only playing half the year was 23-year old Sami Vatanen, who had 21 points in 48 games, rounding out the top three.  The point totals didn't amaze anyone, by any means, but just the collective of these three leading the way is a marvel in itself.

The 2014 version of the Ducks crease was an curious story as well.  Jonas Hiller, who finished 29th overall in pool scoring after a 29-win year and 70 points, was 11th among all goalies and he now appears to be on his way out of Anaheim through free agency.  The Ducks don't mind, as they have both Fredrik Andersen, who they thought so much of to make him the number one going into the playoffs and then John Gibson, who took over as number one in the playoffs, when Andersen went down with injury.  Having two young goaltenders, both also under 25, squeezed out Hiller, who will make a good keeper somewhere else.

2015 Pool Outlook

There are very few reasons why the Anaheim Ducks may not repeat the successes of the 2014 season, all of those successes that poolies benefited from in the season as well.  If there was one, it might be the retirement of Teemu Selanne, but his twilight season wasn't overly productive, but at the end of the day, everything helps.  The depth of this team is quite good and they are expecting to add some talent in the off-season with the extra cap space they will have, without a Selanne or Hiller on the books.

I think between the top line of Getzlaf/Perry/Bonino, the depth on the blueline and the new goaltending tandem, the Ducks will be a team that you could confidently pick from and do well with.

Looking for some good young players that could provide some serious pool bargains in 2015?  I think that starts with John Gibson in net, as the 20-year old showed some quality stuff in the last couple weeks before the playoffs and in his appearances in the playoffs.  If Andersen falters, there will be no hesitation to put the youngster in.  I am also looking at a kid like Max Friberg, who may get a good look in camp, as his stock was starting to go up before the season started.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Having already touched on Hiller already, we'll move on from him and turn our attention to Saku Koivu, who may or may not retire.  If he does come back for one more, I would imagine it would be with the Ducks again.  Daniel Winnik and David Steckel could be two interesting players on the market, if they make it, but I would have to think the Ducks will make a push to get Winnik on the books, while Steckel, who was sparingly used, could go.  With the depth on the blueline, I couldn't see Stephane Robidas coming back, unless it was a 1-year deal and on the cheaper side.

RFA's to work on in the off-season include Mathieu Perreault, Jakob Silfverberg and Devante Smith-Pelly up front, Sami Vatanen on the blueline and Igor Bobkov in net.

Another large glowing neon sign pointing to how good of shape the franchise is in is their cap numbers.  I have their projected roster for 2015 in at 18 players already, signed on for an annual cap hit of $45 million, leaving about $26 million left for five players.  I don't think the Ducks will go overbidding on the market, but no one says they can't this Summer.

The Ducks also have two picks in the 1st round of this year's entry draft, taking Ottawa's 1st round pick, the 10th overall selection, acquired in the deal that sent Bobby Ryan to the Senators and then they will pick again with their own pick, 24th overall, thanks to their 2nd round exit in the playoffs.  With the 10th overall pick, the Ducks come away like bandits with forward Michael Del Colle, who falls in the draft by a few selections and right into their lap.  Del Colle ends up being the best available player at the spot, according to how my mock draft plays out and he does rank well on most lists as a dynamic point producing forward.  At the 24th spot, I could definitely see the Ducks going again with the best available player, since they are fairly stocked with young talent emerging in the NHL already, which takes away the need to fill certain spots at the moment.

The Ducks may have had an early exit from the playoffs this year, but as you can tell, I think they are one of the best franchises in the league today and with that, I fully expect them to put together the same kind of run that we have seen from the Los Angeles Kings, Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks from the past few years.  There isn't much room for error in the Western Conference, but if there is a team to do it, it will be the Ducks.

I would like to predict a 2015 Stanley Cup Championship for the Ducks, based on all the evidence provided, but I will offer up a Conference Finals match-up as my concrete prediction, with the Ducks being my favourite for a Cup next season.  A full year for one of those two young goalies and a confident bunch in front of either one, should make for a big year for the Ducks.  They are truly scary right now and they are poised to get even better, barring some brain damage in the team's management.

Sunday, June 01, 2014

Pool Outlook for Ottawa

It was certainly a season of disappointment for the Ottawa Senators in 2014, especially after an inspired 2013, where they made the playoffs, despite numerous injuries to a number of their star players.  With a number of their players remaining healthy for the better part of the season, you can imagine the disappointment of not making the playoffs, rather falling somewhat flat on their faces, 5 points back of a Detroit Red Wings team that had nothing but injuries to their star players.

11 of the regular skaters for the Senators played in 75 or more games, but there were some disappointing point totals.  Of course, there were some injury troubles, as you may suspect in an 82-game season and that may have triggered some inconsistencies through the line-up, which may have led to some irregular scoring or winning patterns, but after that 2013 season, you would have thought that playing with adversity was something this club could do well.

There doesn't appear to be any change to happen for the management team or the coaching staff, but the Ottawa Senators may be looking at making some moves in this off-season, possibly seeing a star player or two shuffled off and they may give a new opportunity to some of their youth or even acquire some NHL-ready talent to step in.  This has the potential to be an interesting off-season for the Sens.

The best player for Ottawa in the 2014 season has been the best player for the team for the last few years, as Erik Karlsson continues to dazzle with his offensive capabilities from the back end.  Karlsson played in all 82 games, which was a great sign, especially coming off that torn Achilles tendon, that he suffered in the 2013 season and Karlsson came back with a vengeance.  In all 82 games, Karlsson scored 20 goals and 54 assists for 74 points, scoring at 0.9 points-per-game, a respectable total.  In the pool rankings, Karlsson finished 24th overall, which would have made him the last pick in the 1st round in my draft.  That's a mighty fine year.

Let's continue on the blueliners, shall we?  Below Karlsson, it's a pretty big gap, but I think that is to be expected, given the numbers that Karlsson put up.  Marc Methot and Patrick Weircioch each had 23 points in the year and Weircioch suffered from all kinds of inconsistencies, which also led to the games he missed as healthy scratches.  High expectations on Jared Cowen after a new deal blew up in his face with only 15 points in 68 games.

Up front, the Senators rolled with a fairly steady line-up, but with Jason Spezza only picking up 66 points in 75 games to lead the way, it was an underwhelming performance all around.  Kyle Turris continued to improve on his career numbers, as he hit a new high in pool rankings, coming in 69th with 58 points in all 82 games.  Turris' game continues to grow, which may offer him some increased responsibilities here soon.  Clarke MacArthur was 3rd-best with 55 points in 79 games, while Bobby Ryan had a disappointing 23-goal season.

Goaltending for the Senators turned out to be a bit of an issue as well, because when Craig Anderson couldn't fulfill his duties as starter, Robin Lehner wasn't consistent enough to keep the wins coming for the team.  Anderson finished with 25 wins in 52 starts, which is below .500, sure, but Lehner had 12 wins in 30 starts, which didn't help their case much.  Neither were awesome through the year, but there were some injury troubles for Anderson, which didn't help much.

2015 Pool Outlook

There is plenty of smoke billowing out from the trade rumours out of Ottawa, as we head into this off-season, which puts some clouds of doubt into how I would approach some of these players, ranking them for hockey pool purposes.  I am just about ready to make Karlsson into a top five pick, given his value as a blueliner and what kind of difference there is between himself and other defenders out there.  Anderson in net should be a pretty good lock, but his stock went down with the number of injuries he saw in the year.  Turris is moving up, Bobby Ryan shaded down a bit, while depending on what kind of help the team gets, fringe players like MacArthur or Mika Zibanejad need the 'wait and see' approach.

There are some young players for the Senators that I am excited about and will probably rank a little higher than most and they begin with defenseman Cody Ceci, who came up midway through the season and got a good lesson on being an everyday defender in the league.  Memorial Cup winning forward Curtis Lazar will likely get a good look at training camp in September and if he shows us anything like he did at the World Junors or at the Memorial Cup, he could jump in and make an impact next season.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

A few interesting names headline the UFA crop in Ottawa, led by rental acquisition Ales Hemsky, who had a good showing in his short time with the Senators, despite not being able to help the team into the playoffs.  Milan Michalek, who had a disappointing 2014 season, may also head to the open market.  Defenseman Joe Corvo spent the back half of the year in the minors and is definitely expected to hit the market in July.

15 restricted free agents on my list at the moment and only a few really spring out as likely returnees to the line-up, although it is still early for a few to give up on, I suppose.  The headliners here are Robin Lehner, defenseman Eric Gryba and forwards Mike Hoffman and Stephane Da Costa.

The first projected line-up for the Senators for the 2015 season includes 16 players (nine forwards, six defensemen and a goalie), which has a projected cap hit of $48.6 million, leaving about $22.5 million left on the books to use.

Do the Ottawa Senators need to make a good pick in the 1st round of this year's Entry Draft?  You bet they do.  Can they?  Heck, no.  The Senators traded their 1st round pick to the Anaheim Ducks in the deal that brought them Bobby Ryan.  In the first season since this deal was done, the Senators have been caught with their pants down, as the Ducks have their pick and still made it into the playoffs, despite being knocked out in the 2nd round by the Los Angeles Kings.

The Senators won't make a pick until the 2nd round, 40th overall and there is no way I'm going to provide insight that far down the line.

Unlike Winter in Game of Thrones, change is coming in Canada's capital and the Senators will try a little bit of re-tooling to get themselves back into the playoffs and hopefully be competitive at the same time.  The name that continually comes up in the rumour mill is Jason Spezza, who won't be an easy player to move, given his $7 million cap hit for one more season, but I suppose it isn't the hardest pill to swallow, since it is only the one year.

Although I'm not GM Bryan Murray's biggest fan, I do respect him enough to say that he has done a pretty good job with the Senators and has done well with moves in and out of the organization for the most part.  If he is going to make some moves to change the complexion of the team, I think there is a good chance that he will succeed and see his team make the playoffs again in the 2015 season.  I like Karlsson to come back with another great year and as long as Anderson stays healthy, the Senators will be a team to reckon with in the 2015 season.

Heading Into Game Seven in the West

Well, before we watch Game Seven tonight (Sunday night), I should recap how we got here and what it did in the playoff pool, shouldn't I? Yes, that's what I thought.

You know how I thought that the Blackhawks were out of gas and they were just about to be knocked out of the series?   Well, the Blackhawks showed me... with one heck of a last ditch effort to save their playoff lives in the series.

The Blackhawks even had themselves a bit of an up-and-down game in Game Six, prevailing 4-3 in regulation time, thanks to one of their big stars, Patrick Kane.

Chicago went down 1-0 after one on a Dwight King goal, but stormed back in the first three minutes of the 2nd period, as Kane and Ben Smith scored to take the lead, a lead they held through the middle frame.  The Kings did well to fight back in the 3rd period, with Drew Doughty scoring to tie it up and then Alec Martinez for the go-ahead goal, all within the first eight minutes, a lead that the Kings should have been able to hold, in theory.  But no, those resilient Hawks tied up the game again on a Duncan Keith marker, just before Kane was able to put the winner to bed, scoring at the 16:15 mark of the 3rd, with the Blackhawks holding on to head back to Chicago for Sunday night.

Kane was the big player in the game and the playoff pool, scoring a pair of goals, including the winner and then adding an assist for a 4-point game.  Brent Seabrook had a pair of assists and Corey Crawford made 26 saves to get his nod in the blog post as well.  Doughty was the big man for the Kings again, picking up a goal and an assist in the game, for one more mention.

ImplicationsWell, this has created a dilly of a pickle in the standings, as three teams are now tied at the top with 236 points. Corey M. leads the pack with 61 goals for, followed by Travis G. with 60 goals and Wes M. with 56 goals. All three teams have de-throned Gus M., who has been relying on the Rangers, a team that doesn't get a Game Seven, but still has 234 points in 4th place.

Since Los Angeles and Chicago are going to that Game Seven, if these pool teams relied heavily on these two, picking their better players in higher boxes from this series, they should get a nice present in Game Seven.