Thursday, June 05, 2014

Pool Outlook for Washington

Having a few of the so-called elite players in the league means that missing the playoffs is a huge disappointment, not only for the team, but the league and even us poolies. The Washington Capitals should have been a contender and it may take peeling back a few layers to figure out why they didn't make the playoffs.

Key players on the team were healthy this year, as 11 skaters (forwards & defensemen) played 70 or more games, including their three best forwards and their three best defensemen.  I don't think it's health that was the matter.

Goaltending was a bit of a concern, something that the management team could solve at the deadline, but that fell on its face pretty quickly, as the Capitals managed to snag Jaroslav Halak from the Sabres, but couldn't turn him into any tangible wins down the stretch.

Between some healthy stars and being unable to solve the problems they had locally in the win-loss column in 2014, it cost both management and coaching their jobs, as GM George McPhee was not renewed to a new deal and head coach Adam Oates was fired.  The Capitals have made some changes already, including former Predators coach Barry Trotz going behind their bench.  The Capitals are among those teams that everyone will be watching intently and it looks like it will be for a good reason.

The name on the marquee for the Washington Capitals, Alex Ovechkin, did a good portion of what he's meant to do for the team and that's score goals.  Ovechkin led the league with 51 goals in 2014, the only 50-goal scorer during the season, but was only able to register 28 assists, which kept his overall points number down to 79, playing in 78 games during the year.  That had him ranked 16th overall in pool scoring, 8th among forwards.  Ovechkin will still be a good bet to be in the top 10 picks in the upcoming hockey pool draft, but it had to be somewhat of a disappointing year, up until the World Championships, where he did win gold for Russia.  A consolation prize for not medaling in the Olympics or making the playoffs in the NHL.

Ovechkin's main pivot, Nicklas Backstrom, also had somewhat of an underwhelming season, also with 79 points (18 goals & 61 assists) in 82 games.  The Capitals depth has been a question mark over the last few years, so they definitely need their best players to be hovering in the 90-100 point range in the year.  The drop off in forwards went all the way down to Joel Ward, who finished with 49 points in 82 games and then it was Marcus Johansson, who ended up with 44 points in 80 games.  Troy Brouwer and Jason Chimera played as decent depth forwards, with 43 & 42 points, respectively, but it just wasn't enough for the Capitals in the year.

Offense from the blueline also suffered a little, as Mike Green only finished with 38 points in 70 games, finishing as the 29th ranking defender in pool scoring.  Green has had seasons in the upper echelon in defenseman scoring, but those days may have passed him by now.  John Carlson finished close by, with 37 points in all 82 games.  Karl Alzner will get a nod here, as he finished 99th in defenseman scoring in 2014, picking up 18 points in all 82 games, possibly just on the outside looking in from being valuable for the hockey pool.

Going into the 2014 season, it was looking like Braden Holtby had the lock on the number one job and it was his to lose.  Unfortunately for Holtby, he did find himself in some stretches where he didn't get to play at all and the job was left to either Philipp Grubauer or Michal Neuvirth, up until the trade deadline, that is.  Neuvirth went to Buffalo and Halak came in and changes were abound.  After it was all said and done, Holtby still finished with 45 starts, winning 23 games, registering 4 shutouts and adding 2 assists for 56 points, good enough for 18th among goalies.  Not a terrible year, but not the year that he was looking for, I'm sure.

2015 Pool Outlook

I wouldn't necessarily be afraid to go after some Washington Capitals next season, frankly, I would think that a few of the star players are due for a bounce-back season after somewhat of a down year in 2014.  Ovechkin could very well score 60, Backstrom should hover around 90 points and Holtby can find a few more starts, therefore more wins, so the Capitals should be a better team in 2015.  The coaching change will make the biggest difference, seeing whether or not Trotz will let his stars go loose, let them rip and then let the rest of the team clean up the mess.  I guess we won't know exactly until the pre-season.

Likely, the most exciting prospect to watch out for in this year's hockey pool draft will be Evgeny Kuznetsov.  The 22-year old dynamo was able to appear in 17 games for Washington before the end of the season and showed some real flair in a number of games, something that will make him a very attractive piece to pump your hockey pool team up.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency may do away with one rental player and a player they signed as a free agent the Summer before, as both Dustin Penner and Mikhail Grabovski are both set to hit the open market in July.  Both players finished with only 35 points on the year and neither were all that impressive in their time in Washington.

The only real notable restricted free agent on their list is goaltender Philipp Grubauer, who would be the number two goalie for the Caps, if nothing else was done to acquire more talent in the position.  I don't imagine he would be much trouble to sign on for another year or two.

The Capitals are not doing too bad, when it comes to their roster and space left to add a few pieces.  I currently have Washington in with 11 forwards, six defensemen and Braden Holtby in net for a cool $54.8 million, leaving the team with roughly $16.3 million to add five more bodies.  With the cupboards pretty bare on talent, I could see a busy off-season ahead for Washington.

The Capitals could use just about any kind of talent at this point in time.  All of their best prospects are now playing for the team and this will also be the first chance for the promoted assistant General Manager Brian MacLellan to put his stamp on the franchise with a directional 1st round pick.  With the 13th pick, the Capitals may find a little bit more skill with Danish forward Nikolaj Ehlers, who played for Halifax in the QMJHL.  He is one of the few players left on the list that really has an impact tag on his profile and he can likely provide a little more depth in the scoring department, trying to compliment Johansson or Kuznetsov down the stretch.

The Capitals should have been much better in 2014 than they were and ownership has made some heads roll because of that.  The stretch wasn't too great at the management level and MacLellan may have his hands tied a bit with large contracts belonging to Ovechkin, Backstrom and Green, but with the cap going up again, you never know what can happen.  As for coaching, you have to think that Trotz will have a pretty good say into how the franchise goes forward with new management, possibly spending some of that extra cap room wisely on some responsible talent.

I think the Capitals have everything in place that they'll need to improve and make it back into the playoffs.  They have plenty of elite talent up front, they have a coach that can make good defensemen into better ones and even if the team stays with Holtby, they should be fairly sound in net.  Rumours are abound that the goaltending may change, but if it does, there is a good chance they could improve there too, but I would still be confident in Holtby.  I'm looking to the Capitals to have a solid Summer, make a couple more key moves and then deliver in the 2015 season.  With Trotz at the helm, a good playoff run doesn't sound like a crazy idea.

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