Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Fringe Signings (July 1)

The first of the fringe signings of the day was Dallas' Patrick Eaves, re-signing with the club, taking a 1-year, $1.15 million deal, opting against testing the free market.  Eaves had 27 points in 47 games, giving him a pretty good scoring rate through the season, but a concussion and a broken ankle limited his playing time substantially and may have boosted his numbers a little bit.  I would think that if he is playing 82 games next season, he'll see his scoring rate drop a little bit, playing the averages.

I would also be a bit weary, given the concussion status of Eaves, he will earn a discount to his projections, come draft time.

Maybe due more to my projections for him next season, then anything else, pool worthy defenseman Yannick Weber re-signs with the Vancouver Canucks, signing a 1-year, $1.5 million deal at the start of the free agent frenzy, coming back to the team that employed him on the power play, near the end of the year.  Weber finished last season with 21 points in 65 games, having been a healthy scratch for a number of games as well.

The New York Islanders have their backup goalie now in tow, as they have decided upon Thomas Greiss to back up Jaroslav Halak for the 2015 season. Greiss won 9 games with the Penguins last season, but averaged just under a point for every 60 minutes in the net, suggesting that his scoring rate as the back-up, isn't nearly as great as it could be.

Behind a big minute guy like Halak, Greiss might be, at best, a fringe goalie, late in the draft.

More back-up goalie mayhem came after, as the Philadelphia Flyers signed Michal Neuvirth to a 2-year deal, with a cap hit of $1.625 million per season, a solid back-up deal, for sure.  Neuvirth split time last season between Buffalo and Long Island, winning only 7 games and a point production of 0.45 points per 60 minutes played, mostly in Buffalo, which was looking to tank for the most part.  His numbers could improve with a big push behind Steve Mason.

The Colorado Avalanche are already tinkering with a 23-man roster, by my count, as they added forward Blake Comeau with a new 3-year deal, worth $7.2 million in total.  Comeau spent last season with the Pittsburgh Penguins and picked up 31 points in 61 games, registering another good scoring rate on a pretty talented team.  Comeau will move to a young team, where there is plenty of talent, but where he slots in will dictate where his projections end up.  My early thoughts are some losses in his projection, but that could change with a good camp.

The Nashville Predators added to their stable of defensemen with the signing of veteran blueliner Barret Jackman, signing him to a 2-year, $4 million deal on Wednesday. Jackman was not re-signed by the Blues, the team he has spent his entire career with until now.  Last season with St. Louis, Jackman picked up 15 points in 80 games, ranking 113th among all blueliners.  His presence should be welcomed among the young players on the back end, so he'll likely be relied upon for his leadership.

The Arizona Coyotes didn't lose out on defenseman Zbynek Michalek, even though he went to unrestricted free agency for a little while today. The Coyotes signed the veteran defender to a 2-year, $6.4 million deal, which gets him to return for another year in the desert. Last season, Michalek picked up 4 goals and 12 points in the year and should register enough minutes to be close to consideration for the hockey pool next season, depending on how deep the draft actually goes.

Going into the back-up role in Los Angeles, immediately turns Jhonas Enroth into a fringe player from a worthy player, because it isn't like he is expected to get a ton of minutes behind Jonathan Quick. Enroth signed a 1-year, $1.25 million deal with the Kings on Wednesday, bumping himself up into the back-up job for the coming year.  Enroth won 18 games with 2 shutouts for 40 points, between Buffalo and Dallas, so he should provide adequate support for Quick in the Kings net.

Penguins Wrestle Kessel Out of Toronto


Will they?  Won't they?  There was all kinds of speculation, as to whether or not the Toronto Maple Leafs would actually move Phil Kessel before the beginning of the regular season, as there were good arguments going either way.

Sure enough, the deal was struck on July 1st, as teams try to restructure themselves and form a new and/or better identity.  The Pittsburgh Penguins were in need of that restructuring and they took a huge step with this deal.

2015 2016
To Pittsburgh POS Age G/W P Cap
Phil Kessel F 27 25 61 $8 mil
Tyler Biggs F 22 0 0 $894k
Tim Erixon D 24 2 7 $600k
Conditional 2nd Round Draft Pick
--------------
To Toronto POS Age G/W P Cap
Nick Spaling F 26 9 27 $2.2 mil
Kasperi Kapanen F 18 0 0 $894k
Scott Harrington D 22 0 0 $589k
2016 3rd Round Draft Pick
Conditional 1st Round Draft Pick

Without going into too much detail, the deal has a lot of working pieces, with Kessel being the main piece going to Pittsburgh, while the main piece coming back to Toronto was 2014 1st round pick, Kasperi Kapanen.

Kessel still has the hands of a goal scorer, even if he only scored 25 goals last season with the Leafs, but it was a very trying season, where there were no breaks for some poor results and more questions, when they had some good results.

Kessel will now join a team with two world class centres and a market where he isn't the biggest fish and the most interesting person to talk to, so there is a fine chance that he'll settle in quickly and do a lot of damage right away.

With this deal, you can tell that the Toronto Maple Leafs will definitely have a different look to it and a number of promising prospects in the system will highlight how far they can go and how quickly they get there.  Kapanen has some real upside and the franchise is likely looking forward to seeing how well he might mesh with their own 2014 1st rounder, William Nylander.

Either way, both teams will be fun to put projections together for, thanks to this trade.

Proposing Changes for 2016 Pool Prizes

Prizes are what the hockey pool is all about at the end of the day and in the eight seasons I've been doing the draft on opiatedsherpa.com, there have been very few seasons that would keep the interest up of the teams near the bottom of the standings. What I would like to achieve this season is a pool where a lot of teams will still have some interest in the standings at the second Waiver Draft, even if they are not in for the big money at the end of the year.

With that being said, I think a couple of key changes to the premise of the pool will go a long way to help aid participants keep their interest and possibly even change the dynamic of strategies, both at the initial draft and during the Waiver Drafts.

Two main points to highlight below:
  • Increasing the pool entry fee to $60
  • Adding three $3 mini-games into the season from the list below
    • Rookie scoring pool
    • Goalie wins survivor pool
    • All-Star Game
    • Outdoor Games (Winter Classic & Stadium Series)
    • A non-pool related statistic (PIM or plus/minus)
With 20 or more teams, winning one of these pools would give teams a chance to win their entry fee back, add elements to the season, which could be used for basement teams to stay active in the pool and potentially change the face of the Waiver Draft.

Flames Land Frolik

The Calgary Flames went big on a deal with free agent forward Michal Frolik, signing the Slovakian forward to a 5-year deal, worth $4.3 million per season.

Frolik was notably doing a lot of leg work when the free agency warm up began, where teams could discuss plans with players at the draft, where it was said he was chatting with upwards of 10 teams.  The Flames were obviously one of those teams and they managed to pick up a pretty solid forward.

In the 2015 season, Frolik, 27, scored 19 goals and 42 points for the Jets, ranking him 117th among all forwards in scoring and actually putting him in a solid position at the free agent frenzy, where the talent pool was running a little bit shallow.

It would be very likely that Frolik would be seeing more 3rd line minutes than anything else, but he does have a certain versatility to his game, which should allow him to move up and down, when needed.

The Flames are a fairly high scoring team as it was, so with that being said, I think Frolik sees some minor gains to his numbers, even if he is a 3rd liner going into next season.  I don't see the Flames over-utilizing him, but things could change with injuries and cold streaks.

I would think that this signing is a good fit for the Flames, but only time will tell for sure.

Sekera Lands in Edmonton

The signings are coming fast & furiously, as the Edmonton Oilers were able to land one of the big free agent defensemen on the free agent frenzy, signing Andrej Sekera to a new 6-year, $33 million deal, giving their back end a little boost offensively.

Sekera spent time in both Carolina and Los Angeles, being dealt at the trade deadline for a possible playoff run, which never materialized.  He never matched his breakout year from the season previous, only scoring 3 goals and 23 points between the two teams, ranking 71st among all defensemen in scoring.

In Edmonton, there is some real potential for better minutes, something he was not bound to get in Los Angeles and something he really didn't get after the trade, so his numbers did suffer.  He appears to be a guy, who thrives on the big minutes and with a thin blueline to start in Edmonton, he at least can look forward to the 2016 season, as the highest paid defender on the team, at this point.

There will be some real gains in his numbers in the coming year, but the growing pains of this club may still be apparent, so don't push him up too high, unless you're dead set on this Oilers team making a huge push to the playoffs next season.

Avalanche Land Beauchemin

The veteran defenseman market was likely the biggest highlight of the free agent frenzy and the Colorado Avalanche did well to snag one of them for their own, picking up Francois Beauchemin and signing him to a 3-year deal, worth $4.5 million per season.

Beauchemin, 35, will have some guaranteed money and a guaranteed cap hit with the team throughout the term of his deal.

In 2015, Beauchemin scored 11 goals and 23 points in 64 games with the Anaheim Ducks, but the Ducks were not planning to give any term to the veteran in a new deal, so he explored the market and got what he wanted.

The Avalanche are an exciting young team, which needed a little bit more experience in their lineup and they got some winning experience in this signing, which should look good on the rest of the team, meaning gains across the board.

Beauchemin's own projections should be decent for the coming year, as he did miss some time last year, which caused his overall points to go down.  His age is a bit of a concern, but if he can stay healthy and skate with those young guys, I see an upward trend in his numbers for next season.

Isles Re-Up Hickey

The Islanders were on the verge of re-signing Thomas Hickey last night or they possibly did, but either way, the announcement came down on the start of the frenzy, that the free agent defenseman was signed to a new 3-year deal, worth $6.6 million.

Hickey qualified as being pool worthy last season, picking up 2 goals and 22 points in 81 games for the Islanders last year, which put him in 79th among all defensemen.

It was likely a trying year for the 26-year old, as he was slated to be a top end blueliner for the Islanders before the start of the 2015 season, but the deals that brought Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy to town, dropped Hickey on the depth chart and his minutes were somewhat limited.

Now that Hickey has had that year in his new role, I believe he gets more comfortable in it and possibly earns his way into some more power play time.  I think with that notion in mind, his numbers are going to see some gains.  I have conservatively increased his projections, but if this team continues to improve on paper around him, I think his numbers could improve along with them.

Granlund Re-Signs in Minnesota

The Minnesota Wild waited until the frenzy started to announce a contract extension with forward Mikael Granlund, who was set to become a restricted free agent, once the frenzy was to have started.

Granlund signed a 2-year deal, worth $6 million and this could be a good breakout deal for the young Finnish forward.

In 2015, the 23-year old was good for 8 goals and 39 points in 68 games with the Wild, ranking 135th among all forwards.

I think there is definitely some potential for some real gains this year, as Granlund is finally coming around with a good scoring rate and a team that is being patiently built around him.

I get the feeling that he'll be making some big gains this coming season and the Wild will be a much better team for it.  With a confident starting goalie coming into the year, I can see the Wild making a good push in the Central Division.

Ramo Circles Back the Wagon

The goaltending market was not very kind to Karri Ramo, who may not have done enough to spark interest in other teams, when the deals were going down. Instead of waiting for someone to come knocking and pay nothing to do so, the Flames re-signed the Finnish netminder, giving him 1-year at $3.8 million, and he'll be a part of a three goalie training camp battle royale, with Jonas Hiller and Joni Ortio.

In 34 regular season appearances with the Flames, Ramo picked up 15 wins and 2 shutouts for 34 points, averaging a point per appearance and just over a point for every 60 minutes chalked up last season.

It's a crowded crease and there is going to be a lot of hard decisions to be made in Calgary, especially given the money handed out to Hiller and Ramo, possibly edging Ortio out, by virtue of the paycheque.

Usually projections for goaltenders come when the rest of the team is projected, which for the Flames, could be a little while down the road, since they have these huge decisions to be made.

When it comes down to draft time, you better have a pretty good idea about how the Flames are going to divide up the crease time between the three goalies and hope that they don't add a fourth here any time soon to make it any murkier.

Predators Re-Sign Ribeiro

How the heck are the Nashville Predators going to make it to the salary cap floor this Summer?

Re-signing Mike Ribeiro to a new deal is a start, as they gave him a 2-year deal, worth $7 million, a $3.5 million cap hit for each season.  It's not breaking the bank, but they will need to get some work done here soon, since they really only have six locks among their forward ranks and a handful of kids that might make it, just because there was no one else.

The Ribeiro signing is key, as he was a pivotal player in the Preds' offense last season, scoring 15 goals and 62 points in all 82 regular season games for the club and he was a contributing factor to the hockey pool's winning team as well, as he was somewhat of a sleeper pick.

In the end, he was the 44th ranked forward among the bunch, had a whale of a year and is now going to be a part of the solution for the Predators, whatever the end result may be.

The uncertainty of the Nashville Predators lineup is what may keep my projection of Ribeiro down a little bit, not to mention a legal battle outside of the hockey rink... that doesn't help anything either.

As of today, the trend for Ribeiro is a bit of a loss, but not a great loss, maybe something that takes him down a few pegs, but you will have to consider that a number of players are on the way up, so Ribeiro could drop a round or two, despite a really good year.

Islanders Re-Sign Lee on the Eve of Frenzy

The New York Islanders were busy, the day before the free agent frenzy, as they tried to save a couple of their young players from officially becoming restricted free agents, but only managed to save one before the end of the day, re-signing forward Anders Lee.

Lee signed a 4-year, $15 million deal to stay on Long Island and save himself from the offer sheet scenario, which could or may not have played out starting tomorrow, but after finished his first full season in an Islanders uniform, he can move into sophomore territory with confidence.

As a rookie, Lee finished the year with 25 goals and 41 points in 76 games with the club, ranking him among the top RFA's heading into July 1st, but is now taken off the list.


Lee likely exceeded some expectations with the 25-goal season and that might be a tough feat to repeat and a little bit of the sophomore jinx comes to play.  My early projections are slightly less than the 41 points, so I would be treading carefully on his 2016 season, for now.

The Islanders also didn't make many great improvements to their forward lines, thus far in the off-season, even though the best they really could have done was make a trade or two, but that hasn't happened yet.  With a couple of roster spots open in the front, it will be interesting to see how they fill them.

Sharks Give Jones the Reins

The last move of Free Agent Frenzy Eve, according to my Twitter feed, was the signing of goalie Martin Jones by the San Jose Sharks.

Jones has already been well-traveled in this off-season, getting traded from Los Angeles to Boston, then Boston to San Jose, but at least he has found a home for the 2016 season and it looks like it comes with a starting job, as well.

Jones and the Sharks agreed upon a 3-year deal, worth $9 million and maybe by default, for a lack of a better term, he is penciled in to be the number one guy with the Sharks, come training camp and into the regular season.

Given his numbers and ranking among his goaltending peers, Jones may have been considered to be more of a fringe signing, but given the nature of the Sharks' goaltending situation, he gets his own post.

In 15 appearances last season, Jones picked up 4 wins, 3 shutouts and an assist for 15 points, behind a fairly tired Kings team, that wasn't nearly as dominant as they once were.  Jones was only able to be on the ice for 775 minutes in the 2015 season, so it should be no surprise that he came in 52nd among all goalies in scoring.

So, going from being a straight-up back-up for one of the biggest minute hogs in the NHL to the number one guy, just down the road, there are some pretty big gains to be had for his overall numbers.

A lot will depend on how the team concludes their free agency period, especially since they have quite a lot of work to do in this off-season.  By my count, the Sharks still have nine roster spots to fill, a good portion of those are on the blueline, so filling out that portion well will have a large impact on the point scoring rate that Jones will have next season.

I think there are going to be some games that Jones will be able to steal for the Sharks next season, but in order to be a top notch keeper, you're going to need defense.  Currently, I have Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun in pen on their roster, which is a decent start, but there isn't a great deal of confidence in only three blueliners.

Buyout Period (July 1)

It was confirmed, just prior to the 5pm ET deadline, that the Detroit Red Wings exercised their right to waive Stephen Weiss for the purpose of buying him out, just prior to the open markets opening up.

Last season, Weiss played in 52 games, scored 9 goals and 25 points, ranking 233rd among all forwards in scoring.  His $4.9 million cap hit was certainly not justified with those numbers and with three years remaining at that large hit, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Wings wanted to do away with it.

According to the buyout calculator, his cap hit for the buyout in 2016 will be under $1.1 million, a substantial savings.  His buyout will run out after the 2021 season is over.