Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Fringe Signings (May 25)

Well, maybe the Chicago Blackhawks are a little high on their success of the Artemi Panarin signing last Summer, as they have added a couple more European signings to the one blogged about yesterday. A couple of Swedes also signed new deals with the Blackhawks, both in the cheaper variety, as forward Martin Lundberg and goalie Lars Johansson each put pen to paper with the club, looking for a job in the NHL.  None of the three signings for the Blackhawks will qualify as a rookie next season, as they will all be 26 or over on September 15th, so don't go fishing for rookies here.

Morning Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 25)



The Pittsburgh Penguins are not going away any time soon... or at least, they won't be going away without a solid fight.  The Penguins lived to fight for one more day against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday night, handing them a decisive 5-2 loss and forcing a Game 7 in this Eastern Conference Final.

The Penguins went back to rookie Matt Murray in the crease and he made 28 saves for the win and you would have to be fairly certain that he will get the call again for the penultimate game.

The offense was on point in this one, as Sidney Crosby continues to lead the way in these Pittsburgh wins, as he has scored each one of the winning goals in this series, plus he threw in an assist for a 3-point night.  Out of the whole lot of seven goals in this game, Crosby was the only pool player to be notable in this game, remarkably.

ImplicationsWell, if Scott has any chance of catching Kristy before the end of the playoffs, he'll need Phil Kessel to lead the Penguins, much like he has already, through to the Finals and put on a push for the Cup. Otherwise, he'll be heading up Fecal Creek without a paddle.  He'll also need San Jose to push through to the Finals on the West side, but that's a discussion for a West post.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Bruins Re-Sign Kevan Miller

On Tuesday afternoon, it was reported that the Boston Bruins re-signed veteran defenseman Kevan Miller, inking him to a 4-year, $10 million deal, saving him from heading to the open market on July 1st.

Miller was ranked 96th in pool scoring among all defensemen in the 2016 season, good enough to slide into the worthiness mentions.  He finished the year with 5 goals and 18 points in 71 games.

The 28-year old rearguard earned a lot of trust with the coaching staff in the 2016 season, likely more because of his play in his own end, than his offensive prowess, but he was able to chip in on the scoresheet, which made him valuable to us poolies.

In the pool last season, Miller was a late pick-up in Week Eighteen, making his debut in the pool.  Under the right circumstances, he could be taken again next season, at the September draft... assuming we have the same amount or more people.  In this early part of the Summer, Miller is only one of two pool-worthy Bruins defenders signed on for next season, the other being Zdeno Chara, but you'd have to assume that would improve by training camp.

Pool Outlook for Anaheim

It was a horrid start for the Anaheim Ducks to start the 2016 season.  Before this team was able to string together any sort of winning streak, they were already 1-7-2 in their first 10 games and things were looking awfully bleak, just one month into the season.  The coaching staff were under fire, the players were questioned and rightfully so.  Still, the management team stuck it out and was finally able to make some moves come January and the Ducks were back in the air.

Okay, not only were they in the air, they were soaring majestically and finally dominating, like many thought they would, looking at this team on paper.  The Ducks were able to string winning streaks together, one as big as 11 games in February, and they were able to capture the Pacific Division title, snatching it from the grasps of the Kings, who nonchalantly finished up their regular season.

That's sort of where the magic dried up though.  The Ducks were up against a good defensive team in the opening round in the Predators and as much as their offense showed up some nights, it was nowhere to be found in their other nights and they dropped a 7-game series in the opening round, feeling exceptionally disappointed.

That was the last straw for the management team, as they dismissed the coaching staff and now sit and ponder their future, trying to sort out which direction they would prefer to go in, looking for a coach to fit that need and look for more moves to help them win right now.

The Ducks representation in the hockey pool draft was around the average of 13 players taken, their number one goalie, Frederik Andersen, was the only 1st round pick in the draft.  The Ducks awful start led to three drops and two picks in the Week Nine Waiver Draft, but they were already picked apart when Week Eighteen rolled around and no Ducks were moved at the time.  Anaheim was wheeling and dealing through the year and they added a number of players, who were taken in the pool and they finished with 14 players on pool rosters when the season ended.

Ryan Getzlaf, who was taken in the 2nd round of the draft, led the team in pool scoring in the year, picking up 13 goals and 63 points in 77 games this season, which was good enough for 46th overall in pool scoring, a ranking that equates to a mid-2nd round pick in the draft, so that was about right for him.  He was one of many Ducks to get off to a very slow start, which obviously hurt his numbers for the year, but he bounced back in a big way for a strong finish.

By the end of the year, 14 Ducks players were pool worthy, including Getzlaf, so the draft had it bang on.  Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Rickard Rakell, Jamie McGinn, Jakob Silfverberg, David Perron, Andrew Cogliano and Brandon Pirri all finished in Ducks uniforms and worthy of their spot on pool rosters, while Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm and Cam Fowler did the same from the blueline.  Both Frederik Andersen and John Gibson finished as worthy from the crease, as injuries did well to help split the time all year long for these two.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

For the 2016 season, given the standard set, it will be incredibly hard to match the 2015 season, but they do have a good deal of the pieces in place to do so.  Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Vatanen, Fowler and Andersen will make for a great combination again in 2016 and they'll all get pushes from the depth below them, but I am a true believer in depth to win everything.  Assuming the Ducks make good use of their remaining cap space, they should be back in the mix for a Conference Finals and if Andersen can raise his game even further, that will be how Anaheim succeeds and adds another trophy to their case.

The Anaheim argument may start with their goaltending in the 2016 season, but it was a good argument from both Andersen and Gibson, as they finished 4th and 5th in team scoring, according to the pool standards.  When Andersen went down, Gibson stepped up, but the argument fizzled after the regular season concluded, because it was a let down when the playoffs started, no matter how hard the core was working for them.  It was a great regular season, but no one raised their game to the playoff necessity level and that's why they went out so early.

2017 Pool Outlook

Forwards Cap Defense Cap Goalies Cap
Corey Perry 8.625 Cam Fowler 4.000 John Gibson 2.300
Ryan Getzlaf 8.250
Ryan Kesler 6.875
Jakob Silfverberg 3.750
Andrew Cogliano 3.000
Nate Thompson 1.600 Kevin Bieksa 4.000 Kevin Boyle 0.925
Nicolas Kerdiles 0.925 Simon Despres 3.700 Matthew Hackett 0.600
Kalle Kossila 0.925 Clayton Stoner 3.250
Kevin Roy 0.925 Jacob Larsson 0.925
Ryan Garbutt 0.900 Brandon Montour 0.925
Nick Ritchie 0.894 Andy Welinski 0.925
Nick Sorensen 0.803 Shea Theodore 0.863
Julius Nattinen 0.776 Josh Manson 0.825
Ondrej Kase 0.670 Markus Pettersson 0.825
Chris Wagner 0.638 Keaton Thompson 0.795
Kenton Helgesen 0.627 Jaycob Megna 0.787

For having 14 pool worthy players at the end of the regular season, the Ducks have a lot of work to do to put some names back in the top of their table, as potential free agency has them down to only seven players there now.  I'm sure they would have liked it more if some of their $3+ million defenders could have popped a few more points, but those are the breaks.  It will be interesting to see who goes back up to the top of the table and who gets shifted around, but it looks like the Ducks could be a little less popular at next season's pool draft.

There is plenty of belief that the Ducks will have lots of blueline help coming up the ranks and in short order, so it could be a fresh group before too long.  Shea Theodore made his NHL debut this season and played 19 games, which means he'll still have his rookie status in 2017 and he could have a regular job this coming season.  The Ducks have also recently signed Swedish youngster Jacob Larsson and he's a kid that could make an impact in North America soon.  With lots of spots open on their current 2017 roster, the kids will likely be offered up the chance to jump ahead, but at what cost?

Needs at the 2016 Entry Draft

The Ducks are fortunate to be one of those division winners with their 1st round pick this Summer and from here, I would think that they should be looking for some flash up front, trying to find that scoring forward that will give them some goals for years to come.  They may opt to stay among the power forwards, but just a scoring forward will do, as they could always put some power around him.  Victoriaville centre Pascal Laberge seems to have the NHL projection that we're looking for and plays with a bit of an edge, something that is an Anaheim trait in recent years.  He has he potential to be a great fit here.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

As mentioned earlier, free agency does take away a number of players from their pool-worthy spots on their team table.  Heading to the open market are Jamie McGinn and David Perron, both brought in via trade and made good names for themselves once they arrived.  It will be interesting to see if they're brought back.  The restricted free agents are the big project, as they include Rickard Rakell, Brandon Pirri, Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm and Frederik Andersen, some of which will be harder to sign than others.

Then it all comes down to what they have left to spend.  The seven pool-worthy players signed on already are coming in at $36.8 million, while the team already has three defenders on their list that make enough to be on the roster, adding another $11 million to the total.  10 players, $47.8 million in total.  That isn't a terrible number by today's standards, but when you look at that free agent pool they have to drain, there are potentially some big numbers in there and that could mean one, two or possibly three of those guys don't come back.

The star power of this Ducks team is seemingly enough to carry this team forward into the playoffs, year after year.  Their top two forwards, a decent defense corps and goaltending that they can lean on from time to time, all combine together to be a pretty strong force, especially in a weaker division, like the Pacific.  There's no doubt that the Ducks are in to lock up Vatanen, Lindholm and Rakell this Summer, but they can sort of pick and choose what they want to do afterwards.  I don't see this team throwing money away, but they'll try and find ways to improve their side with reasonably priced talent and then adjust when the season starts.  The playoffs are all but certain next season, but how they dress up the depth will be what takes them to where they end up.

Fringe Signings (May 31)

Now that we're through the better part of the Pool Outlook posts and closing in on the Stanley Cup Finals, it's time to start piecing together the signing news, as it happens this Summer.  We'll have pool worthy signings, which will be a bigger deal and we'll have the fringe signings, which are names to have penciled in on your list, something to keep an eye on for next season.

We'll start with the Chicago Blackhawks signing on a World Championship standout, defenseman Michal Kempny, who was an undrafted free agent.  The 25-year old Czech defender had a pair of assists in the tournament and had a +7 rating for his tournament.  He had also just completed his first season in the KHL, where he had 21 points in 59 games for Omsk.  Getting a mature defender on an entry-level contract is an appealing circumstance for the Blackhawks, given their cap situations, but they have had good luck with this sort of thing in recent memory... Artemi Panarin comes to mind.



Morning Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 23)



The magical run, that was the win streak from Jake Allen starts, ended at one, which didn't make for much of a streak for the St. Louis Blues, but the goalie change didn't push their side to a Game 5 win, rather it was very much the opposite.

The San Jose Sharks were not going to buy into any momentum of the Blues' goalie change, rather their response to the Blues winning in their building was taking the swing game in St. Louis and doing so by a fair margin.

The two teams traded blows through two periods, the game being tied 3-3 after the middle frame and this one was waiting for one team to own this game and make it their own.  If you blinked at the start of the 3rd period, you may have missed the moment, with Joe Pavelski scoring his second goal of the game, 16 seconds in, and the Sharks finally had the grasp they were looking for.  The 4-3 goal shifted the momentum for good, as the Sharks wouldn't let go and the Blues couldn't quite break through and it wasn't until the time with an empty net that anything really changed, as the Sharks potted a couple free ones and won the game, 6-3.

Pavelski was the big hero, scoring a pair of goals, including the eventual winner, and added an assist for a 4-point game.  He was supported by Joe Thornton, who had 3 assists, and then Joel Ward, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Martin Jones, who all stepped away with 2 points each in the pool.  The Blues' best players didn't have an answer for this flood of scoring and that may have been their downfall in the end.

This series will now shift back to the tank for Game 6, which will go on Wednesday night, a 7pm MT start for those watching.  The Blues will need something big, if they are going to force a Game 7.

Monday, May 23, 2016

Pool Outlook for Florida

On the shoulders of two all-time greats, the Florida Panthers had a very good 2016 season in the Atlantic Division and with their help, the development of their youth system and their immediate future in the standings, look to be taken care of for the next year as well.

Florida pieced together a fantastic year, in part to being in a division with three Canadian teams, which couldn't quite get their acts together and made for easy fodder through the year, but let's not take credit away from how good this team actually was.  Thanks to a good core group of players, the Panthers were Atlantic Division winners, earning home-ice against the New York Islanders in the opening round of the playoffs, but folding in six games to a hungry team from Brooklyn, playing with a hot goalie.

Of course, there is going to be playoff disappointment with this club, their season should have meant better things in the playoffs, but there was a bit of a no-show from most of their better scorers, as the Islanders were able to shut down most of the top Panthers from the regular season.  Still, having done what they've done and the progress that they have made as a franchise, it has to breed more hope for the future, no matter how long either Jaromir Jagr or Roberto Luongo has left in their careers.

The coverage of the Panthers for the poolies in this draft probably wasn't as good as it could have been, as only 12 players from Florida were taken in the September draft, but no one was disappointed by what they had chosen.  No one was dropped in Week Nine, while the back-up was chosen and then no one was dropped or picked in Week Eighteen, which kept this side very consistent within our ranks.

The top player taken was Luongo, taken with the top pick in the 2nd round and he finished as the team's best player, 13th overall in scoring, with 35 wins, 4 shutouts and 2 assists for 80 points on the year.  Luongo was the 8th best goalie in the pool and at age 37, he still has a good enough game to be one of the best on a regular basis in the league.

15 Panthers were worthy of being picked in this year's pool, including Luongo, and that also includes his backup, Al Montoya, who appeared in 25 games for the team and picked up 24 points.  Among the forward ranks, Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Reilly Smith, Jiri Hudler, Teddy Purcell and Nick Bjugstad all finished as worthy in Panthers uniforms.  Even the defense was solid in the scoring department, with Aaron Ekblad, Brian Campbell, Alex Petrovic and Dimitry Kulikov all earning nods here in the blog.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

I am always weary of sophomore players and their impact on a team and I wouldn't exclude Ekblad from that thinking, but one of the big differences between a kid like Ekblad and Nathan MacKinnon, is that Ekblad's job is defense and his offense is a definite bonus, where it's the other way around for MacKinnon and harder to make up when he's not scoring.  I think the Panthers, building around that core, are going to make strides in the right direction and they will be in the mix for that wild card spot or they'll just miss.  The way these playoff battles have gone in the past few years, it's only a few points difference between making it and being two or three spots away.  I really do like their chances of making it next year.

No matter how much we talk about the seasoned veterans, the central figure for the Panthers' future is Aaron Ekblad and his season's scoring totals were only marginally less than in 2015, but his impact was big overall, as his play was a cornerstone to this team's success and his talent will only see his numbers increase in the next few years.  Thanks to Ekblad, Jagr and Luongo, the Panthers did clinch a playoff spot and they are showing real promise going forward.

2017 Pool Outlook

Forwards Cap Defense Cap Goalies Cap
Aleksander Barkov 5.900 Dmitry Kulikov 4.333 Roberto Luongo 5.333
Teddy Purcell 4.500 Alex Petrovic 1.050
Nick Bjugstad 4.100 Aaron Ekblad 0.925
Jaromir Jagr 4.000
Jussi Jokinen 4.000
Reilly Smith 3.425
Jonathan Huberdeau 3.250
Dave Bolland 5.500 Erik Gudbranson 3.500 Samuel Montembeault 0.726
Marc Savard 4.021 Jakub Kindl 2.400 Colin Stevens 0.710
Derek MacKenzie 1.300 Michael Matheson 0.925 Mike McKenna 0.575
Rocco Grimaldi 0.925 Michael Downing 0.820
Lawson Crouse 0.925 Linus Hultstrom 0.793
Jayce Hawryluk 0.925 Mackenzie Weegar 0.680
Kyle Rau 0.859 Josh Brown 0.658
Dryden Hunt 0.809 Steven Kampfer 0.613
Shawn Thornton 0.750 Brent Regner 0.600
Juho Lammikko 0.718
Steven Hodges 0.685
Shane Harper 0.650
Chase Balisy 0.635

There is lots to look forward to out of the Panthers' camp next season, as they have a great portion of their pool worthy players coming back for another stretch, the same group that worked so well to get that division title in the regular season.  Florida also has the benefit of not having too many gaudy looking contracts on their books, which should allow for more flexibility to help improve this team.

The youth movement in Florida is a real positive, as the Panthers will put a lot of kids through their paces at training camp and try and pluck one or two to really help the team in the 2017 season.  There isn't any real panic to try and get some of these youngsters in, so they will be forced to earn their spots, but a 20-year old like Jayce Hawryluk may get a long look, while 22-year old defender, Michael Matheson, already saw some time with the Panthers in the regular season and the playoffs and could end up with a full-time job, come October.

Needs at the 2016 Entry Draft

The Panthers have dealt away draft picks to get where they are, something that needs to happen with these playoff-bound teams, but they have done well to keep their 1st round pick for this draft, where they will pick 23rd.  I can see the Panthers taking the best player available, since they have the knack of either developing players or flipping assets for players to help them win now.  Taking the best player available will at least give them a chance at one of those.  Adding more depth down the middle can never hurt a team and Luke Kunin from the University of Wisconsin seems to be a pretty solid move, as his scouting report suggests that he is a very versatile player.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency gives the team some questions moving forward, more so about Brian Campbell on the back end, than a rental player like Jiri Hudler, but still some questions.  Don't forget about Al Montoya either, who might go looking for a starting job this Summer.

Vincent Trocheck leads the restricted free agent group into the off-season, but he's coming out of his entry-level deal, so the Panthers will likely look to bridge his deal for a season or two, before giving him the big bucks, but it will eventually come.

Without those gaudy contracts, their pool worthy group looks very attractive at $40.8 million for 11 players, which leaves the team with plenty of space to work with.  The Panthers acquired the cap lump of Marc Savard, but they didn't even use the LTIR for that number, they just ate it with ease.  The Panthers may still be a bit of a budget team, but it's working for them.

There is a lot to like about this Panthers team, heading into the 2017 season and there is nothing on paper that says they won't make the playoffs again next season, but you can make a lot of arguments about how they may not win the division again, but they will put up their argument for why they should be there again.  A good young core, a veteran goalie and lots of leadership should mean great things for this club.  One of these days, this young core will be ready to lead this group to a Stanley Cup, but it does seem a little early... or does it?

Morning Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 23)



The goaltending switch in the Conference Finals is now only working at a 50% clip, as the Pittsburgh Penguins played their hunch and it didn't quite work in their favour.

The move to dress Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 5, a crucial swing game at home, will certainly be questioned for a while in the many hockey circles that exist, but when it comes down to it, the Penguins, as a team, blew two leads, 2-0 and 3-2, in this game and then lost it in overtime, 4-3.

The Tampa Bay Lightning continue to be very resilient in their playoff play, they hardly let a thing get under their skin or an unfortunate turn of events sour their demeanour.  In Game 5, even down a couple of times, they still found a way to push through, tie the game and eventually find the winner in extra time.

The notables on the night for the Lightning were Jason Garrison and Nikita Kucherov, as they both came away with a couple of points each, Garrison picking up the bonus point for the winner.  On the losing side, Chris Kunitz had a goal and an assist.

The Lightning can now shut this series down and head to the Stanley Cup Finals, as soon as Tuesday night, when they return home for Game 6, which will have a 6pm MT start on CBC.

ImplicationsAs for the pool, we're really winding it down quickly and there is no movement in the standings, whatsoever.  Stuart's team is now 13 points better in the Conference Finals alone and his overall lead has stretched to 27 points, so that's over.  Kristy and Scott are tied in the Conference Finals in scoring and Scott would need one hell of a push from the San Jose Sharks to make any sort of move or make it interesting, at the very least, but that series is too close right now.

If you're still finding any sort of entertainment in this pool, I commend you for trying.

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Afternoon Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 22)



Game 5 between the Lightning and the Penguins goes tonight, a 6pm MT start on CBC, and there's no shortage of intrigue here, as the series becomes a best of three, all knotted up at 2-2.

The Penguins had a couple of updates on Sunday morning, as they prepared for this one, including who was going to start in goal.  Well, if the goalie changed worked for the Blues last night, why wouldn't it work for the Penguins tonight?  Marc-Andre Fleury gets the call for Game 5, relieving Matt Murray, who has been excellent in these playoffs and the Penguins will try and find a spark at home.

The Penguins also announced that defenseman Trevor Daley is done for the playoffs, as the injury he suffered in Game 4 has turned out to be a broken ankle, a bitter disappointment for him, I'm sure.  Not quite as disappointing in the pool though, as Daley was overlooked by all 50 teams, not taken at all.  Olli Maatta is set to take his place in the lineup, as he has sat for the last couple as a healthy scratch.

We're not expecting much for changes on the Tampa Bay side, Andrei Vasilevskiy should be back in the net for them, as Ben Bishop continues to work towards a return from his lower-body injury.

Pool Outlook for Chicago

The 2015 Stanley Cup Champions were going to be up against it, when they got started in the 2016 season, as the salary cap constraints after mortgaging their future for a title was theoretically going to work against them, but somehow, the Chicago Blackhawks really made a run at another solid season and were certainly a central figure in the title conversation.

The off-season saw the Blackhawks shift some bigger contracts for some smaller ones, they signed some key free agents and all of a sudden, the pieces put together made up a very competitive team in the Central Division, the toughest division in the game this past season.

When the regular season concluded, the Blackhawks were 3rd in the division, only 4 points back of the Blues and 6 points back of the Stars, which is a fairly small margin, given the length of the regular season.

The good regular season couldn't translate into a better playoff run, however, as the Blues, who were their opening round opponent, were just a little bit more willing and managed to defeat the Blackhawks in seven games in a very entertaining series.

Nevertheless, the Blackhawks managed to have a very solid year, just one Summer after winning the Cup and they are still in a position of power, heading into the season after.  This management team has done everything in their power and maybe a little bit more, to make sure the Blackhawks don't suffer through any lulls as a franchise.

Being the defending champs, means that you're going to be very popular at the hockey pool draft and even with all the moves that were made in the off-season, there was still a lot of excitement for how this team was built.  At the draft in September, there were 16 Blackhawks taken, but only one was taken in the 1st round, goaltender Corey Crawford.  16 players was too many, as a couple were dropped at the Week Nine Waiver Draft, but the late season tinkering saw one more added at the Week Eighteen swap.  The Blackhawks made a few moves at the deadline as well, then finished with 14 active players on pool rosters.

The hockey pool MVP was Patrick Kane, as he finished atop of the pool rankings, scoring 46 goals and 106 points in all 82 games for the team and he wasn't taken until the 3rd round of the draft, thanks to his off-ice legal troubles, which had him in hot water and his participation was in question at the start of the season.  Of course, he was cleared of all of his problems and continued to have a magnificent season.

Only 13 Chicago players finished as worthy when the season ended, including Kane, but that late season tinkering in the pool added a late addition to the club, which wasn't going to help the numbers too much.  Rookie forward Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews, Andrew Ladd, Artem Anisimov, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrew Shaw and Marian Hossa all finished as worthy up front, while Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith and Niklas Hjalmarsson were good enough at the back end for a mention.  The goaltending split was very beneficial for both goalies, as Corey Crawford and Scott Darling were each worthy, certainly a varying levels, but Crawford did have a 1st round-type season, finishing 7th overall and 4th among goalies.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

Back-to-back Cups are nearly impossible in this day and age, but if there was ever a team to do it, it would be the Blackhawks.  Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford and company have the pieces signed on and ready to go for next season, so it will be a matter of who they let go of to gain some flexibility in the off-season.  Will Chicago return to the off-season, I'm pretty sure that it won't be a problem.  Will they be able to put enough around this core to push for another Cup?  Maybe not in the off-season, as the numbers don't seem to be pointing in their favour, but once the season gets started and the trade deadline rolls around, I don't see why they couldn't make that push.  There are a lot of variables to consider, but the constants should give this team lots of confidence.

Amazingly, it was an off-season signing that vaulted the Blackhawks from possibly doing something good to being in the conversation for a long playoff run, no matter how long they actually lasted.  The signing of Artemi Panarin, an undrafted Russian forward, that made all the difference.  Even without Panarin, one could argue that the Blackhawks were likely going to make the playoffs, but they were not able to tinker enough with their lineup, even with the acquisition of Andrew Ladd, to really push through the St. Louis Blues in the opening round of the playoffs.

2017 Pool Outlook

Forwards Cap Defense Cap Goalies Cap
Patrick Kane 10.500 Brent Seabrook 6.850 Corey Crawford 6.000
Jonathan Toews 10.500 Duncan Keith 5.538 Scott Darling 0.588
Marian Hossa 5.275 Niklas Hjalmarsson 4.100
Artem Anisimov 4.550
Artemi Panarin 0.925
Teuvo Teravainen 0.894
Bryan Bickell 4.000 David Rundblad 1.050
Marcus Kruger 3.083 Ville Pokka 0.925
Tyler Motte 0.925 Trevor Van Riemsdyk 0.825
Gustav Forsling 0.873 Carl Dahlstrom 0.751
Ryan Hartman 0.863 Robin Norell 0.718
Andrew Desjardins 0.800 Dillon Fournier 0.709
Vincent Hinostroza 0.718 Erik Gustafsson 0.668
Luke Johnson 0.718 Nolan Valleau 0.668
Tanner Kero 0.668 Cam Schilling 0.575
Kyle Baun 0.625

Coming out of a tinkering season, it does mean a lot, when you still have 11 pool worthy players signed on for your roster for the next season.  There is a full expectation that their rental players will be moving on, so there will likely be a few more adjustments made to the full lineup, when the season starts in October.  Nevertheless, the Blackhawks will be a popular team next year.

It doesn't seem very likely that the Blackhawks are going to hit a home run, like they did with Panarin with much of their youth in their system, but they will likely give it a try.  The Blackhawks may have to promote one or two youth players from somewhere in their system and by the numbers, Ryan Hartman or Tanner Kero, each appeared briefly in 2016, may have the edge.  Neither would be penciled in for a big role on the team, but they have a shot at making it in camp.  I would keep an eye on their camp, just in case they have some more surprises up their sleeve.

Needs at the 2016 Entry Draft

The Blackhawks are another team without their 1st round pick, having dealt that to the Jets in the deal that brought Ladd to town and they are also without their 2nd round pick as well, dealt to the Flyers in 2015 for Kimmo Timonen.  Free agency has been what has kept this team afloat over the last few years, while the draft has been relying on the long shot players, hoping that their scouting staff finds some gems late.  This year will be much of the same.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Salary cap constraints and the Chicago Blackhawks... synonymous since 2010.  Today, if the Blackhawks were not allowed to spend any more money, they would be able to ice a team, which would be fairly competitive on a nightly basis, but there is still lots of work to be done here.  The 11 pool worthy players are coming in at $55.7 million, which would leave 10-to-12 open spots in the remaining $15.7 million, assuming the cap ceiling doesn't go up this year.  You start checking off Bryan Bickell and Marcus Kruger and you're already down to $8.7 million for 8-to-10 players and it gets a little hairy after that.  And let's not forget that we'll have other bonus issues to contend with here, so the math gets even worse.

Andrew Ladd is certainly finding a new home, as a pool worthy forward ready for the open market with dollar signs in his eyes.  On the restricted side of the ledger, Andrew Shaw is in need of a new deal and he won't come cheap as a 24-year old, already through a bridge deal.  There is a good chance that the Blackhawks find a deal for him and get more assets in return.

It'll be a tough Summer for Stan Bowman and company, but as he proved last year, nothing is impossible.

It's hard to bet against this team, especially with what they already have signed on for next season.  Yes, the Blackhawks will struggle to put the best lineup they can out on the ice next season, but it's hard to look at a roster with Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook and not think they are going to do well next season.  Panarin has established himself as a prime time player in the NHL and he's not a teenager, so I don't see the jinx falling on him too much.  This Blackhawks team will be good again for the regular season, no doubt, but they will struggle with their depth, it may cost them some games here and there and it will culminate into an early opening round playoff loss, unless the math works in their favour, through a ceiling raise and some LTIR help, so they can add some more at the deadline.  Good team to pick from for your hockey pool, but I wouldn't get my overall expectations too high here.

Morning Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 22)



There was a lot of chatter pregame, before the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks laced them up for Game 4, as the Blues opted to start their young netminder, instead of the goalie that got them this far. Was it a good idea? How is this going to affect the psyche of the guys in the crease, if they lose?  Well, the plus side is... the Blues didn't lose and we don't have to ask that question anymore.  Another plus to this win... they were able to put six goals past the Sharks goaltending, taking the game with a 6-3 score.

Unfortunately, those six goals didn't play a great deal in the pool, as non-pool players Troy Brouwer and Kyle Brodziak each had a pair, including the winner.  Thankfully, the pool had Paul Stastny, taken once, and Jake Allen, also taken once, each picking up a couple of points each.  Nevertheless, this St. Louis win means we'll have at least six games in this series, which could give us a few more points.

This series heads back to St. Louis for Monday night and now the story line gets a little more interesting.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

Afternoon Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 21)



Game 4 between the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks will see a new starter in the visitor's net tonight, as Jake Allen has been tapped to start for the Blues tonight. Allen has already made a couple of appearances in relief, but with the series really tilted towards the Sharks after two straight shutout wins, the Blues need a kick in the pants to get their team started.

Allen won't be relied upon to score any goals, of course, but changing up the keepers may spark a fire underneath this Blues team, which has almost become complacent with their poor play in the second and third game of this series.

In the pool, the Blues' Box 12 representation was only taken once, but unlike his counterpart in tonight's game, Martin Jones, it's a little too late to make such a huge impact with so few picks in the pool.  Jeremy's second team has Allen in the pool this year, which still sits in 10th place, despite not having a West goalie, until tonight, but his team is still 48 points out of 2nd place.

Pool Outlook for Los Angeles

The Los Angeles Kings were off to a rocket of a start in the 2016 season, surely making up for missing the playoffs the year before.  That big start was met with a bit of sputtering through the year and there were a few inconsistencies that popped up in their game and what looked to be a slam dunk for the Pacific Division title, they let it slip to their state rivals in Anaheim.  Once they hit the playoffs, the Kings were pitted against their other California rival and they were no match for the San Jose Sharks, dropping out of the first round in five games.

The firm belief for the Kings' lack of success this season, despite finishing second in the division, was their depth on the blueline, where after Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin, it wasn't the most reliable on paper, nor on ice.

The core of this Kings team still has a number of years left to go in their cycle, which is good news for their fan base and us poolies, and with their head coach officially coming back for another kick at the can, we can certainly expect some more of the same Kings hockey for at least another season or so.

In order for these Kings to really thrive again, they will have to address some of their depth issues, which may not be the easiest for a playoff team to do, especially one that has mortgaged their future to win right away and one with lots of salary cap constraints.

There were 13 Kings players taken at the draft in September, which worked out to be about the average across the board.  Not too many, yet not too few either.  Jonathan Quick was the only 1st round pick from Los Angeles, taken 12th overall.  The Week Nine Waiver Draft was a bit of a laugh, as the two Kings that were dropped, were immediately scooped and it was even again in the Week Eighteen Waiver Draft as well, one for one.  The Kings acquired Kris Versteeg for their playoff run and they finished with 14 active players on pool rosters for the end of the year.

Quick had a very good year, leading the Kings in pool scoring yet again, finishing 3rd overall and 2nd among all goalies, with 40 wins, 5 shutouts and 3 assists for 93 points, being one of the best 1st round picks of the year, coming in as a pretty good bargain.

Including Quick, the Kings had 12 pool worthy players at the end of the year, which may suggest that the pool may have overvalued this team, as a whole, but this is a team that you can easily get excited about, when they are playing their best.

Up front, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Milan Lucic, Kris Versteeg, Tanner Pearson and Dustin Brown were all considered to be worthy, with a wide range of scoring numbers.  On the blueline, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and deadline pick-up Luke Schenn were all worthy as well, rounding out the notable players out of Los Angeles.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

The Kings have an interesting Summer ahead of them, which makes for an even more interesting bout of consideration for my prediction for next season.  The core group of Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Carter, Muzzin and Brown should all stick around for the 2016 season, which should immediately keep them in the playoff conversation and given that a lot of these guys will be rested, it makes it even better.   The team will likely be looking to off-load Mike Richards and his whale of a contract, which could be tough, but will weigh on their cap hit if they don't.  I like the Kings to move back into a wild card (or slightly better) playoff spot again next season, but with their constraints, they may suffer along the way again.  The only way I can see the Kings jetting out of the gates next season will be through a blockbuster deal, maybe something at the Entry Draft, to help give the core a lift.

The Kings were not able to pull off that significant deal in the off-season, but they were able to eventually buyout Mike Richards and his ugly deal, thanks to some legal issues, but they were able to get enough rest, by not playing in the playoffs last year, to gain that extra ground in the standings, moving into the playoff spots in the division.  Nevertheless, the Kings made it back to the playoffs, but their lack of depth, possibly due to a lack of a blockbuster deal, was their eventual undoing.

2017 Pool Outlook

Forwards Cap Defense Cap Goalies Cap
Anze Kopitar 10.000 Drew Doughty 7.000 Jonathan Quick 5.800
Dustin Brown 5.875 Jake Muzzin 4.000
Jeff Carter 5.273 Alec Martinez 4.000
Tyler Toffoli 3.250
Tanner Pearson 1.400
Marian Gaborik 4.875 Rob Scuderi 3.375 Peter Budaj 0.600
Vincent Lecavalier 2.250 Matt Greene 2.500
Dwight King 1.950 Paul Ladue 0.925
Kyle Clifford 1.600 Erik Cernak 0.733
Jordan Nolan 0.950 Alex Lintuniemi 0.729
Adrian Kempe 0.925 Nick Ebert 0.692
Jonny Brodzinski 0.809 Kevin Gravel 0.668
Michael Mersch 0.787 Damir Sharipzyanov 0.625
Michael Amadio 0.718 Zachary Leslie 0.617
Spencer Watson 0.706 Kurtis MacDermid 0.577
Joel Lowry 0.675 Vincent LoVerde 0.575
Justin Auger 0.617
Nick Shore 0.600
Andy Andreoff 0.588

First and foremost, there is the full expectation that Vincent Lecavalier will retire, likely when the playoffs have ended, as per the agreement he made with the team, when he was acquired from the Flyers.  We'll try not to dwell on him too much.  The Kings are running with this core group of pool worthy players, but are hopeful that a guy like Marian Gaborik can find his touch again, as his big cap hit would look much better among those players that were picking up points in the season, rather than atop the list of players that are up-and-coming or depth guys.  If the Kings are going to lose players to free agency, Gaborik will have to be better.

That core group of pool worthy players, however, will certainly be picked apart next season, as there are a good number of players with good upsides and there is still potential for a little bit more out of them.

As it was pointed out last season, pool worthy rookies are few and far between and they were.  There was some rookie talent sprinkled in for flavour, but they were not key pieces to their season.  The team is still pretty high on their 2014 1st round pick, Adrian Kempe, who spent time in the AHL last season, but it's hard to say whether or not he'll make the jump up.  The roster may have some holes to fill, come September, so there's always a chance.

Needs at the 2016 Entry Draft

The Kings could really use some top end draft picks to help fill their coffers again, but they don't have much for picks in this draft, period.  Los Angeles dealt their 1st round pick to Carolina, their 3rd round pick to Philadelphia and their 6th round pick also belongs to the Flyers.  Their win now attitude has forced the hand of their management to move these picks for playable assets, but it hasn't quite paid off in the last few years.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

There are already some big numbers weighing down the Kings' cap space for the coming season, which doesn't exactly allow for much flexibility.  The nine pool worthy players signed on for next season are already taking up $46.6 million and there are some depth players signed on, which you can assume will be on their opening night roster, which weigh it down even further.

It's that lack of flexibility that makes many believe that unrestricted free agents like Milan Lucic, Kris Versteeg and Luke Schenn are on their way out and looking for a new place to hang their hats.  The team's philosophy on young players means that their restricted free agents are not going to be of the most importance, especially for us hockey poolies.

No matter what happens with the Kings in this off-season, their core group of players will still match up well against their division rivals, especially those from North of the border.  The Kings could really do with a bit of the negative portion of the cycle, allowing themselves to fall into some of the better picks, but the process will likely continue, as they continue to prop the window of opportunity open for another few years.  The Kings will probably play well enough in 2017 to be in the playoff discussion, move some assets to bolster their lineup, but from there, it's anyone's guess.  If there are some really good pieces made available at the deadline next year, they could go really far.

Morniing Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 21)



Arguably, the Tampa Bay Lightning were short of playing a full 60-minute game and that nearly cost them their regulation time victory, but the 4-0 lead after two periods turned out to be enough, as they Bolts came away with a 4-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins at the Igloo and they'll now return home with an even series, tied 2-2.

The Lightning were close to being without one of their top players in this one, as Tyler Johnson took a puck to the mouth in warm-ups and needed some repairs.  Fortunately for the team, he managed to get out there for puck drop with some facial protection on his helmet and go on to play an instrumental role in the win, scoring the eventual winner in the 2nd period and also adding an assist for a 3-point night.

Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn and Nikita Kucherov all contributed with a pair of assists each in the win as well, all becoming notable in this one.

In the game, the Pittsburgh Penguins lost the services of Box 21 defenseman Trevor Daley, who suffered a lower-body injury after taking a hit from Ryan Callahan in the 2nd period.  Daley was seen leaving the building on crutches and heavily bandaged, so his status for Game 5 is certainly doubtful.

Also of note, starting in net for the 3rd period for the Penguins was Marc-Andre Fleury, making his playoff debut in the Conference Finals.  The Penguins seemingly rallied around their veteran keeper, trying to push for that comeback.  Fleury made seven stops in the 3rd period, before being pulled for the extra man in the final minutes.

Now the series will shift back to Pittsburgh, the Lightning holding whatever momentum there is in the series and the Penguins will be questioned to no end about who will get the start in the swing game on Sunday.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Pool Outlook for New York

It was an opening round defeat to the Pittsburgh Penguins that ended the New York Rangers' 2016 season and it was only a five game series in the end, where the Rangers barely even showed up to play most nights.

The Rangers are a damn fine regular season team, one that offers up plenty of options for us poolies, but other than a big push to the Conference Finals last season, they really haven't been very clutch in the playoffs.  The 2016 regular season was a good one again, as they finished 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, just behind the Capitals and the Penguins, which is a feat within itself, since it is such a difficult division to play in.

It all wasn't for a lack of trying though, as the management team tried to identify what this team needed to succeed in the playoffs, acquiring a former Cup winner in Eric Staal from the Hurricanes, but he was just as guilty as some of their other star players, for not showing up in the playoffs and now they are left with far more questions than they have answers.

Now, there's talk that the measurable window of opportunity appears to be closing on this core group of players and their competitiveness will come into question in the next few seasons, I'm sure.  For this group, it will be a case of mitigating the damage left behind from the cyclical nature of rotating rosters and trying to find some more hope in youth.

The Rangers were a popular group at the draft last September, with 14 Blueshirts drafted to pool teams, including one 1st round pick in Henrik Lundqvist, taken 6th overall.  The Rangers continued to add in the Waiver Drafts, as Week Nine added a couple of players, while Week Eighteen saw three dropped and another two picked up.  The acquisition of Staal at the deadline left the Rangers with 15 players active in the pool by the end of the year.

Lundqvist finished 11th overall in pool scoring, 6th among all goalies, winning 35 games, adding 4 shutouts and 4 assists for an 82-point season.  The 34-year old keeper was about as solid as he could be in the regular season, appearing in 65 games for the team, but the team around him could not rally to make the year any better with a good playoff run.

Including Lundqvist, the Rangers had 17 pool worthy players, which meant that there was some untapped potential in the hockey pool or at the very least, some of those players were dropped to try improve somewhere.

Up front, the Rangers had Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Eric Staal, Rick Nash, Kevin Hayes, Jesper Fast and rookie Oscar Lindberg among the worthy players, while on defense, they stacked up well with Keith Yandle, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Dan Boyle and Dan Girardi.  Lundqvist's back-up, Antti Raanta finished 45th among all goalies, which earned him a contract extension already in this off-season.

A very good regular season/hockey pool team to pick from, but... that's about it.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

The Rangers had a lot of eggs in the 2015 basket, but certainly not all of their eggs were in there, since they have a pretty good core to work from.  The Rangers have some key decisions to make for their side for the 2016 season, but it will be a combination of who will re-sign, which youngster will make the jump up and how the team fares both in the trade and free agent market.  New York will be busy, they still have their window open, but management will have a lot to do with whether or not this team improves or regresses.  My position today, shortly after their defeat, the Rangers do suffer that regression, albeit a small one.  The Summer will be tough, the free agents will be hard to re-sign, the markets are running thin, so scoring will end up being their biggest issue next season.  They will win a lot in the regular season again, but their playoffs will end in disaster.

The Rangers certainly regressed from the President's Trophy and Metropolitan Division winner to 3rd place in the division and their playoffs indeed ended with a disaster finish.  That was a pretty solid call on this end and I don't think it will get much better for this team, but we'll get to that point here shortly.

2017 Pool Outlook

Forwards Cap Defense Cap Goalies Cap
Rick Nash 7.800 Dan Girardi 5.500 Henrik Lundqvist 8.500
Derek Stepan 6.500 Ryan McDonagh 4.700 Antti Raanta 1.000
Derick Brassard 5.000 Kevin Klein 2.000
Mats Zuccarello 4.500
Oscar Lindberg 0.650
Tanner Glass 1.450 Marc Staal 5.700 Brandon Halverson 0.803
Pavel Buchnevich 0.925 Brady Skjei 0.925 Mackenzie Skapski 0.663
Ryan Gropp 0.839 Calle Andersson 0.662 Magnus Hellberg 0.625
Adam Tambellini 0.803 Ryan Graves 0.633
Adam Chapie 0.800
Cristoval Nieves 0.755
Steven Fogarty 0.750
Malte Stromall 0.743
Chris Brown 0.575

Out of the 17 pool players in 2016, only 10 of them are signed on for the 2017 season, which means that free agency is going to be the most compelling story for the Rangers this Summer.  Even the depth of the team will be tested, as they don't have a lot of players signed on to contracts at this point, so we'll probably see their logo a whole bunch around the draft and into the free agent frenzy.

The New York Rangers just recently put pen to paper with prospect Pavel Buchnevich, who is being touted as the team's best hope moving forward.  The scouting report on this kid is speed and playmaking abilities are exceptional and there is a lot of belief that this 20-year old will be able to crack the lineup next season and succeed.  That would make him one to watch in my book, for sure.

Needs at the 2016 Entry Draft

Well, the Rangers need a lot from the draft, but they have mortgaged their future, not only moving their 1st round pick last year in the deal that brought Keith Yandle to town, but they also sent their 2nd round pick in the deal that saw Eric Staal come to the Big Apple.  The Rangers won't be able to pick until the 3rd round, which will be the 80th overall pick, unless something drastic happens.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The cap situation for the Rangers isn't very promising, especially considering the free agents they will have to negotiate with in this off-season.  I think it's fair to assume that there will be a fair number of players on the move from Broadway, in an attempt to wedge the key players back into the lineup for 2017.

The 10 pool worthy players are already in at $46.15 million and that doesn't include the $5.7 million that Marc Staal is going to take up as well.  Last season's cap ceiling was $71.4 million and they would only have less than $20 million to play with, trying to sign another 11 players.

Chris Kreider is set to see a fair pay raise, while J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes and Jesper Fast will all need deals as well, but all four are restricted free agents, so leverage isn't on their side.  Nevertheless, if they can't fit everyone under the roof, we'll either see trades or holdouts, surely.

Eric Staal, Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle lead the unrestricted free agents, but Yandle would be the most coveted by the team, as Staal was a rental coming in and Boyle must be thinking about retirement here soon, at age 39.  Even if Yandle was to re-sign, that will be a huge chunk of change taken out of the cap space and the Rangers would fall further behind.

The threat of missing the playoffs is real.  The team that is listed above will definitely be much different before the puck drops on the season and likely even more so, by the time I write this piece at the same time next season.  There will be a lot of turnover for the Rangers, which means the Rangers are in danger of hanging Lundqvist out to dry in the 2017 season and if their number one goalie can't come up with another stellar season, the overhaul will be thorough and without mercy.  I can honestly see the Rangers struggle to maintain a wild card spot next season, mostly because the Atlantic Division couldn't possibly be as terrible next season, as they were in 2016 and the wild card will get drastically more difficult at a time where the Rangers are most vulnerable.

Morning Player Notes in the Playoffs (May 20)



The San Jose Sharks needed a quick period of adjustment to their new series against the St. Louis Blues, but ever since Game 1, they have found their stride and it seems that they have a firm handle on this one.

On Thursday night, the Sharks stifled the Blues, yet again, while capitalizing on their opportunities, winning the game, 3-0, and it became back-to-back shutouts for Sharks keeper, Martin Jones, who had to make 22 saves for the 4 points in the hockey pool.  The Sharks managed to sneak three goals past Brian Elliott, two of which, including the eventual winner, came from young forward Tomas Hertl, who picked up a 3-point night as well.  Other notable Sharks in this one include Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton, each picking up a pair of assists.

The Blues are going to need to dig really deep in Game 4 on Saturday, if they are going to want to go back home with an even series, otherwise it's time to dust off the 8-ball and it could be a pretty short series.

ImplicationsThe Martin Jones show is making the race for 2nd place into one of much curiosity, as Scott's team is benefiting from a huge goaltending performance from the Sharks keeper and his team has now gained 2 points on Kristy's team in this round.  Sure, the gap is still 8 points, but if the Sharks win their way into the Finals, especially at this pace, this may not be over quite yet.