Pool Outlook for Minnesota

The Minnesota Wild were definitely one of those darling teams heading into the 2015 playoffs, as they were riding a great story in their net and they were a hard working team that made good, after a slow start to their regular season.

This organization, which has prided itself on patience, put its faith into a couple of big superstars and their patience was renewed, as a whole, since they had a framework to build from.  The goaltending was thought to be heading in the right direction at the end of last season, as the team had a new goalie emerge as a contender for the number one spot in the crease, but neither the new guy or the old favourite stepped up and became what the team needed, so they shopped around and got themselves a pretty good deal for a goalie that was re-establishing himself as a number one.

The Wild had a pretty good core group of guys, playing a decent system, but they were in need of a goalie to be confident in, as their new goalie needed a defense to gain confidence behind.  It truly was a pretty good match and it made for a storybook finish to the regular season.

The playoffs seemingly was working in their favour, as they drew a team that was having some goaltending and confidence issues of their own in St. Louis, but their reward for getting past the Central Division champs was getting the former champs, the more experienced and playoff-ready team from Chicago and that was a fight they were not prepared for, ousted in four straight.

Still, a feel good story in Minnesota and it should breathe some confidence and life into the organization, as their foundation to build from, appears to be a bit stronger.

The Wild were once known as a pretty defensive squad, where the hockey pool feared to tread, but they have since turned a corner and the poolies jumped in with some excitement this past year.  At the draft, 11 Wild players were taken and by the end of the year, 13 players were on active pool rosters and another was dropped within the year, bringing their total up to 14 players.  A very reasonable number, which is likely to grow with their improvement.

How quickly did Devan Dubnyk become the face of the Wild in 2015?  After being acquired by the Wild in January from the Coyotes, the team handed him the ball and said, "run with it."  He did.  The 29-year old keeper started 39 games for Minnesota, posting 27 wins and pretty well carried the team into a firm wild card spot.  At the end of the year, he finished with 36 wins and 86 points, which put him 9th overall in pool scoring and 7th among all keepers.  His own changes in playing style have now set the bar awfully high moving forward.

At the forward position, the Wild spread their offense out quite nicely, as eight forwards were considered to be pool-worthy in 2015, all of them making appearances in the pool this year.  Zach Parise, Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek were all North of 50 points on the year, while Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Chris Stewart and Charlie Coyle were above the 35-point mark.  If you're able to infuse your projections with some Wild forwards next year, getting them at the right pick should make for a solid compliment to your team.

The Wild were not short on defense scoring, although they arguably could have used a little bit more.  Ryan Suter and his large cap hit was only good for 32nd in defense scoring with 38 points, so he may have fallen below expectations, but keep them high, as he'll get back there.  Jared Spurgeon and Marco Scandella chipped in with 25 and 23 points, respectively, so they should stay on your pool radar for next season.

In goal, that's where the problems that led to Dubnyk's arrival stemmed, as there was very little faith put into the combination of Darcy Kuemper and Niklas Backstrom.  Kuemper did get enough games in the first half of the season to be notable in the post, as he notched 14 wins and 34 points, but the back half of the year was almost all Dubnyk and it offered very little to the teams that had Wild goaltending beyond the new recruit.  It makes for an interesting situation moving forward.

2016 Pool Outlook

There is a good portion of the team's core already signed on for the 2016 season and since the team was already somewhat popular, it would come as no surprise to me if it stayed that way at the draft next season.  The team's top scoring talent is sticking around, the defense corps appears ready to go for next season, there will just need some work done in the crease, but that would be the number one priority, if I had to guess.  There's lots to be excited about for this Wild team, but they really could use a little bit more timely scoring to put them over the top.

In terms of just looking for some notable names, it is a barren wasteland for top end prospects in the Wild system.  The team's 2014 1st round pick, Alex Tuch, is heading back to college for another year, so there really isn't any banner rookies popping up from the Wild this coming season.  Unless they find an immediate force that this year's draft, I would just keep moving on from Minnesota.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The team's 2015 saviour comes in as the top priority this Summer, as Devan Dubnyk qualifies for the open market, as an unrestricted free agent in July... if he makes it there.  Now that the playoffs are over, the team will focus on getting pen to paper on this one quickly.  It will also be interesting to see what they do with deadline pick-up, Chris Stewart, whether or not they keep him or let him go the way of the rental.

Only one restricted free agent-to-be was pool worthy last season, Mikael Granlund, and he'll be an interesting case study in how they approach his deal, as his first few seasons have been far from complete.

With some hefty contracts already on the books, the Wild may need to get creative with some of their most pressing free agents.  The overall count that I have so far, shows the Wild with 27 showing cap hits, coming in at $68.7 million, a shade under $3 million away from the projected cap ceiling.  Of course, there will be cuts, some deeper than others in some positions, but it still doesn't leave a lot to help build the team.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

The Wild have been buyers at the Entry Draft in recent years, which suggests that they are in the mode of winning now and with Parise and Suter already in tow.  If I was working the floor for the Wild, I would be out looking for a scoring forward that might be able to jump into play right away, looking for that immediate spark in their lineup and help them move past the Blackhawks or Blues or any other Central Division foe.  Their best shot this year may be Minnesota native, Paul Bittner, who has the size at 6'4" & 194 lbs., scored 34 goals for Portland in the WHL this year.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

No matter how good their team defense is going to be in the 2015 season, I get the feeling that the uncertainty in the crease will be the tipping point on where the Wild finish in the standings. If Josh Harding can get his affliction under control or have Niklas Backstrom return to a form we saw in 2009, then that worry goes out the window and the Wild are now back in the conversation for the Central Division title, let alone a Wild Card spot. The Wild will be a player in the off-season and that will play a role to where they finish in the year, but it won't be the end all. I like the Wild to be in the race in 2015, but with the constant improvement of teams below them in the standings, they need all the chips to fall in the right places for a shot.

The goaltending was the tipping point for the Wild this season, but they weren't quite the off-season player that I thought they might be.  Instead, the team decided not to be a player in the market until the New Year, where they made their big splash and that extra bit of improvement came with it.  Timing was the real key though, as they were too late to make that late push for a division title, but knocking off the Blues from their wild card spot has to be considered a big win.

Having already covered Colorado, Dallas and Winnipeg from the Central, there is little doubt that the division will get even harder in the 2016 season.  There's no way that the Avalanche or the Stars could be that bad again, while the Jets are continuing to evolve in the right direction.  Out of these four teams, at least two of them will miss the playoffs in 2016.  As much improvement as the Wild has made in the last few years, the fate of this team rests in goal and we'll see how much better Dubnyk has become in the end.  The Wild should be able to grind wins from the Avalanche and Stars and then compete with the rest of the division, assuming all goes well, but if it doesn't, they'll be the first team to fall out.