Pool Outlook for Montreal

The Montreal Canadiens were purpose built to work their way towards a championship, piled together on top of the shoulders of their number one goalie, glued together with their high expectations.  So when the Canadiens dropped their second round series to the Tampa Bay Lightning, there was certainly some disappointment felt throughout Habs Nation and rightfully so.

The Canadiens certainly had the framework in place for a run, but their moves to help improve the team in the areas, where they felt they lacked, didn't quite pay off, but those are the chances you take, when you can't get what you necessarily want, rather you work with what's available.

After the team's loss to Tampa in the playoffs, there would have been a stern assessment of where they are lacking and I think it comes down to personnel on the ice not being up to task on a consistent basis against a very good team.  The offense just wasn't there when they needed it most and it wasn't like they were going to get any offense from their best player, especially since he's guarding their own net.

Still, there are plenty of positives to take from this season, but for some of the Habs personnel, these positives are only going to guarantee their place in the organization for so long.

The Canadiens weren't as popular in the hockey pool draft as one might think, being held in Canada and all.  Only 11 Habs were taken at the initial offering in September and by the end of the year, only 12 were on active pool rosters and two more were dropped through the year.  Somehow, after this year's offensive showing in the playoffs, more people may shy away from the Habs.

I guess it really didn't matter how much total offense that the Canadiens had, they still managed to have the hockey pool MVP on their side this year, as Carey Price was the best player in the year of the goalie, finishing with 44 wins, 9 shutouts and 1 assist for 107 points and earning 1.61 points for every 60 minutes he played.  Fortunately for the Canadiens, he was an absolute workhorse through the year, almost hitting the 4,000-minute mark in the season.  As the league struggles to find more offense from the rules and players that are playing the game, Price immediately becomes the favourite to be the number one player picked next season at the draft.

Speaking of a shortage of offense in Montreal, only five forwards finished in the pool-worthy top 184 this season with a couple of decent highlights.  Max Pacioretty led all forwards on the team with 37 goals and 67 points to rank 36th overall in scoring, 21st among forwards.  Tomas Plekanec had a 60-point season as well, scoring 26 goals in the process.  The forwards were then rounded out by David Desharnais, Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk, who were all in the 46-to-48-point range.

On defense, three Habs were deemed worthy of mention at the end of the season, as P.K. Subban was 3rd among all defenders with 60 points, Andrei Markov was 11th with 50 points and Jeff Petry, between Edmonton and Montreal, finished with 22 points, which was good enough for 74th.  The blueline did an okay job helping to keep the puck out of their own net, but certainly didn't excel at the other end, beyond the top two.

Of course, when you have a workhorse number one goalie, your back-up is going to suffer and likely fall out of hockey pool consideration.  Dustin Tokarski's numbers did just that, as his minutes dwindled, his production did as well and he ended up being 56th best among all keepers.

2016 Pool Outlook

Having only nine players that were actually deemed pool worthy the season before is surely going to put a damper on how the team is perceived going into the next season.  The Habs didn't have a lot of scoring punch and it cost them dearly.  Sure, seven of the nine players are signed on for next season, which is all well and good, but this team is in dire need of some quality scoring help or else their outlook, both in the pool and in reality, will suffer greatly.

The Canadiens, in desperate need of offense, could look to a rookie or two, like a Nikita Scherbak or Michael McCarron, for a bit more of a punch, but they would need to compliment that scoring with some more veteran leadership, something they parted with last off-season.  It's hard to say which direction the Canadiens are going to go, when it comes to what they should do with the make-up of their team, but I would think that they would look at every avenue and give it a fair shake, both in the Summer and at training camp in the Fall.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The Canadiens have already announced that they have given notice to a few veteran UFA's that they won't be returning next season, which answers a few questions for the coming off-season, but none of them were really pool-worthy, except for Sergei Gonchar, who had a rough year, between Dallas and Montreal.  One player heading to the open market, barring a pitch before July 1st, rental defender Jeff Petry, who has been tipped as a player the Habs would like to re-sign, if they can.

Alex Galchenyuk is the biggest fish of the RFA group this Summer, he'll need a new deal and will likely be looking for something a little bit better than a bridge deal.  Management may not be prepared to give him something like that, so they could be in for a long wait there.

With all of that being said, the Habs are now wading into cap ceiling troubles, if the projected number was to stay around the $71.7 million mark.  The Canadiens have 33 players with contracts at a combined total of $69.7 million, but once you start stripping away minor league talent to get to the 23-man maximum, they're not being left with much more to play with.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

The Canadiens did a good job in the draft department, not trading away their 1st round pick for an asset to help them win now, probably because they thought they could without dealing it.  Nevertheless, this team has to be looking for a good mix of size and scoring talent, because it is two things that are desperately lacking in this organization.  If they could find that in a centre that could play right away, that would be even better, but they likely won't be able to get it all.  I think a power forward like Jordan Greenway has a good mix of what the Canadiens need, according to some scouting reports.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

Price is a great goalie, both in the regular season and now in the playoffs and betting on his health is all I would be doing in making my prediction for the 2015 season. Will the Canadiens make the playoffs again? I am going to be on a resounding yes. Could they make the Conference Finals or better next season? It might not be nearly as confident, but I think it "could" happen, not exactly saying that it will happen. The Canadiens will have to make a splash in the free agent market, on top of re-signing their key free agents and in doing so, we could better make this prediction. But given the parameters we have right now, I like their chances again next season.

Well, I'm glad I didn't sell the farm on the Canadiens making the Conference Finals.  The Habs tried to make a splash in that free agent market with PA Parenteau and Tom Gilbert, but they didn't prove to be very effective in the year and those were the kind of guys that could have swung things in a different direction for the team.  Their chances were good this past year, they were just short in a few spots and that's what cost them in the end.

Solving the short-comings of this Canadiens group is going to be tough in the off-season, which suggests that wins may be a little harder to come by next season, but they certainly won't be out of reach for this club.  Having arguably the best goalie in the league and a couple top end defensemen certainly helps this side in the long run.  With some changes in the atmosphere, which is the Atlantic Division, the Canadiens will be faced with some interesting new challenges, including their rivals getting better, before the off-season even really starts.  I think the Canadiens will be in the mix for the division title, but without making those improvements in the off-season, that's about all they'll get next year.