Pool Outlook for Pittsburgh

A horrible run of injuries trumped a hard working run into the playoffs for the Pittsburgh Penguins, as their defensive depth was tested numerous times and despite a herculean effort by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, the team was cast aside by the New York Rangers in the opening round of the playoffs in only five games.

Injuries at the back end to Kristopher Letang, Paul Martin, Christian Ehrhoff and Olli Maatta were very hard on the Penguins this season and you could really start to think of what might have happened if these four could have played 75 or more games each this season.  It was such a good group of defenders that rarely played together this season, especially since Maatta was done early with a cancer scare and then Ehrhoff missing the last third of the year with his concussion problems.

It was a bit of a nightmare season, you could say, and the confidence of the team was definitely shaken, even after a great start to the year, where they seemed nearly unbeatable.  This is why the season is 82 games long and why the dog days of the season still count for something.

The season does leave some question marks on their roster, but it's something that management is preparing to go over and we'll see if there is a cause for panic and/or hasty changes.

The Penguins and hockey pools have been an exciting match of themes in the last few years, given the offensive talent that Pittsburgh has harnessed in their top two centres and how many wins that means for their number one goalie.  13 Penguins on the final night roster were touched by the hockey pool at some point or another this season, two of which were dropped early, when injuries rolled around.

Fleury was far and away the team's best player in 2015, topping all Penguins with 89 points in the year, winning 34 games and leading the league with 10 shutouts.  He was 6th overall in pool scoring and 6th among goalies, which shows you the importance of goalies in 2015.  The 30-year old keeper really took some strides in a leadership role this season, as he had to stand a bit taller in some games, where his offense wasn't going to make up for the defensive lapses that he saw a lot of in the year.  The Penguins were on the verge of missing the playoffs and they owe a lot of their appearance in the first round to #29.

When you were looking at the forward group of the Penguins early on, you had a feeling that they were going to be special.  When the injuries started and the Penguins went out and got David Perron from the Oilers, you were likely in awe that they were able to snag another scorer.  Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were in the top 20 in forward scoring, Patric Hornqvist was also in the top 100, Perron, Chris Kunitz, Daniel Winnik and Brandon Sutter were all pool worthy, but they were not nearly as consistent to give the team that extra boost.  Blake Comeau was also in the mix, just missing the top 184, sitting 185th in forward scoring, but still gets a small mention.

Despite his injury problems, Kristopher Letang still played in 69 games this season and led all Penguins blueliners with 54 points, which was good enough for 7th among defensemen in scoring.  That's not bad at all, given what he had gone through, last year around this time and then into the 2015 season.  Paul Martin was the last pool worthy defenseman, ranking 91st with 20 points and you could argue that he didn't have a lot of help when times were tough.

Thomas Greiss was the man behind Fleury this year in the Penguins net, but wasn't nearly as good with his minutes as some of the other back-ups in the league or the pool for that matter.  He averaged less than a point for every 60 minutes played and didn't really make an impact.

2016 Pool Outlook

The Penguins are not deep in signed players for the 2016 season, but that leaves a world of possibilities through the shallow free agency pool this year.  Pittsburgh has been known to attract talent and even negotiate some reasonable deals, helping players come in and play with some of their world class talent.  Key components like Crosby, Malkin, Hornqvist, Kunitz, Perron, Letang, Maatta and Fleury, make this team into a strong source of points for any hockey pool, no matter the stats.  Their outlook remains strong, it's their luck in 2016 that they might be worried about.

If the Penguins somehow fail in attracting some big fish from the free agency pool, using the term lightly, there is some young talent that they could offer some looks to.  Their 2014 1st round pick, Kasperi Kapanen, spent the season in the Europe playing with men and finished the year in the AHL, so he should be getting a long look.  Defensemen Brian Dumoulin saw a handful of games and could get a long look, as well as Scott Harrington.  The Penguins are not short on young talent, it will be a matter of where they fit in when training camp finishes.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

There are a couple of the team's pool worthy players heading to unrestricted free agency, which will spark some interest, as rental forward Daniel Winnik will attract some dollars and defenseman Paul Martin may raise an eyebrow or two, if he makes it to market.  You don't expect these two to blow the doors off your pool team, but they can definitely help your pool goalie pick up wins.  Christian Ehrhoff is also a UFA this Summer and his rough season will be hard to negotiate with for him, but if he can get to 100%, he can provide a spark somewhere too.

The RFA crop isn't too pool worthy, but it does have Brian Dumoulin, one of the rookies you may want to watch, as it will be interesting to see if his new deal is a one-way deal or not.

The Penguins could open up the regular season today with a full roster of signed players, including four goalies, and still have $5.3 million left under the projected salary cap ceiling.  The management team has to be smart with their spending and given their superstar top end talent, they might be able to afford playing with some of their youth and still feel confident that they can make the Spring Dance, come April.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

From a organizational standpoint, the cupboards are somewhat empty for the Penguins, as beyond Kapanen, there isn't a lot of scoring help that is designed to score a lot.  Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they dealt their 1st round pick to Edmonton to get David Perron, earlier in the year.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

The Penguins are a curious beast. They have all kinds of firepower, but defensively and the occasional night in goal, they do seem to be liable for an off-night here and there. They will be able to string wins together, that much we can all be certain about, but it will be that depth that carries the team as far as they will go. It does sound like change is on the horizon for the Penguins, but how much and how effective it will be is still up in the air. I don't see the Penguins winning the Metropolitan Division as easily, if at all, under the pretense that guys like Orpik or Niskanen make it to free agency. An upgrade on the blueline is needed to repeat their regular season performance and if they don't get it, they'll drop a spot or two.

The key to last year's prediction was the potential and eventual loss of Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen, who both shipped off to Washington in the Summer, and as we have gone over this year, their depth at defense, tested by injury, was not what it should have been to keep the Penguins great.  Yes, they dropped a couple of spots and the overall scope of this team was lowered by a peg or two as well.

The management team appears to be safe after one year and it sounds like the coaching staff is safe for another go around as well.  I don't think I can pin the bad luck they had in 2015 on them, so they need another year to bring this team back to glory.  There in lies the prediction part of this post, can they get back up to glory in 2016?  Why couldn't they?  I think Fleury got better this past year and if they can somehow address their health issues in the off-season and possibly get to be more durable through training, there is no reason why they could excel through the regular season and into the playoffs again.  Their division is tough and it will be a tight fit to get all these teams in, but I think the Penguins will be back in the race for the division title again, at the very least.