Friday, August 06, 2010

Revisiting the Injury Prone List of 2008

Instead of just doing one giant blog post on my injury prone list, I thought I would just re-visit the two previous posts separately and then do a new post for 2010. I think that would look substantially better, don't you?

The injury prone list is a good list to have or at least keep handy, just in case you are quickly plowing through your own list of players at your draft or needing something to help modify it with injuries and such. There are always some players kicking around that are not safe bets in hockey pools and you should either stay away from them completely or at least discount them, so you don't take them too high. If you then discount some players, pick them at their lower projections and they turn out to be studs, then you have found yourself some bargains. It's definitely the safe road to go in.

Todd Bertuzzi led off the list in 2008 with his back problems that he was dealing with in Calgary and was a good player to discount at the very least because of injury over the past couple of seasons. Bertuzzi only played in 66 games (picking up 44 points) in 2009 with the Red Wings, which sounded about right in the discount sense, but in 2010, he played a full season of 82 games for the first time in ages, but only registered 44 points again, moreso to the lessened role that he needed to play in Detroit. I would still discount Bertuzzi's points, but maybe to somewhere around 70+ games, just to stay on the safe side.

On the list in 2008, wasn't a safe bet in 2009 and now worthy of staying off your list in 2010, Ales Hemsky of the Oilers should probably be avoided or heavily discounted, despite the level of talent he possesses. With Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson coming up the ranks right away, Hemsky might be more inclined to work on his health a little more diligently to avoid conflicts with his fantasy owners and the Oilers themselves.  Again, I would stay clear away from Hemsky in 2010 and wait until next season.

The recommendation on Ray Whitney was to discount him in 2008 and he would have been a big steal, if everything worked out. Wasn't any sort of recommendation to discount him in 2009, which also would have paid off, but not to the highest extent, since the Hurricanes were not a very high scoring team last season. In 2010, I will lift him from the injury prone list, two healthy seasons is good enough to do so, but there should be fair warning about what his numbers may or may not do in Phoenix with the Coyotes.

In 2009, you probably should have discounted him a little bit more than the 60 points; 2010 had a little warning of knee issues, which should have been heeded, but in 2011, we won't have to worry about Pavol Demitra at all, as he has headed off to Europe to play. I couldn't imagine many poolies will miss him, especially after only playing in 28 games for the Canucks in 2010's regular season. Thank you and good night.

In 2008, I was being kind to Erik Cole, saying that we shouldn't expect more than 75 games out of the oft-injured winger, but he came out and managed to play 80 games and get 42 points. In 2009, it was his play with the Oilers that really hurt his recommendation more than his health, but his health was in the forefront with a leg injury and an upper-body injury sidelined him for half the year, so I'm going to put him on my stay-away list. I'll let someone else gamble with him this year.

In 2008, it was more of a word of caution for Ed Jovanovski, since he was on the rebound as such by then from being a bit more of an injury concern. He came out and had a strong 2009 season, which really looked good on him and he was removed from the list in the Summer of 2009, but was then struck with more injury problems and played only 66 games, picking up 34 points. He was still 38th among blueliners in points, so it might be wise to just give him a discount, probably down to 70 games now, keeping it there might be a good idea.

Any idea why Mike Comrie isn't signed to a new deal yet? If he isn't getting hurt, he seems to be getting sick. His 2010 season was marred by mono, which kept him out of the line-up for 30 games and also had a couple bouts of the flu as well. Comrie finished with only 21 points in 43 games in 2010 and should clearly be avoided for the 2011 season. It doesn't even matter what I said about him previously... which is probably the same thing.

David Legwand has been doing better at staying healthy in a regular season, finally playing an 82-game season in 2010, picking up 38 points in the process. I had Legwand likely being a better chance of a bargain than a good pick in 2008, kind of doubtful at being a better pick last Summer, which possibly only proved to be true, since he scored below half a point-per-game. Legwand finished in the top 150 among forwards, but I probably wouldn't push my luck with him this year, dropping him down a notch or two again.

The Stars have put a lot of eggs in a less-than-sturdy basket, as Kari Lehtonen has been given the nod to be the team's number one guy in 2011. Lehtonen was acquired by Dallas for relatively cheap and the Stars ended up parting ways with longtime keeper Marty Turco, just to accommodate this move. Lehtonen only appeared in 12 games in 2010, all with the Stars after the trade and still had to take some time off near the end of the season, when the Stars were out of the playoff picture, to rest his ailing back. If he can stay healthy, he can be a great pick-up by somebody, but he's a major gamble, especially for the Stars organization.

The Panthers Stephen Weiss was worth a mention in the Summer of 2008, because he had a hard time playing full seasons, topping out at 77 games in 2003. The good news was, he managed to increase his career-high by one game, which came with a discount warning in the Summer of 2009. The 2010 season saw Weiss play 80 games, hitting the 80-mark for the first time in his career and now seeing his discount decrease slightly. I would still give Weiss 70-75 games for the 2011 season, just to be on the safe side, but things are definitely looking up for this kid.

Well, there's a peek at the first list re-visited, there were some more obvious choices in the 2009 list and the 2010 list is already starting to fill.  Fun stuff!

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