Sunday, August 01, 2010

Top 11 RFA's, Ranked by Pool Points

Well, I thought I would have a quick peek to see who tops the list of restricted free agents still looking for a new deal, heading into August. I'm sure there has to be a reason why some of these kids are still without a contract, but I'm not totally surprised to see a lack of offer sheets out on them, just because there are some pretty high priced compensation packages out there to snag them.

OFFERCOMPENSATION
$1,020,348 or belowNone
Over $1,020,348 to $1,545,981Third-round choice
Over $1,545,981 to $3,091,963Second-round choice
Over $3,091,963 to $4,637,944First-round and third-round choice
Over $4,637,944 to $6,183,925First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,183,925 to $7,729,907Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $7,729,907Four first-round choices

Now, I don't think there are any players on this list looking to score a team four 1st round picks, but teams are definitely thinking twice about what they are risking when offering sheets to some of these RFAs. Look at San Jose offering Niklas Hjalmarsson a deal, it would have been a good risk to move a 1st and a 3rd for him, if they signed him.

Anyways, let's have a look at the RFAs, shall we?

Antti Niemi, goalie
2010 Points: 67, 53rd overall, 14th among goalies
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $827,000

Now, this is a little unfair to put Niemi on, but I haven't had a good chance to write about him yet. Niemi was awarded an arbitration decision of $2.7 million, to which the Blackhawks are still mulling over at the time of writing this post. This could switch him over to the unrestricted free agent side, if the Blackhawks walk away, but I imagine the team will sign him and then move him afterwards. It's a good deal for a lot of teams, 1-year and $2.7 million.

Bobby Ryan, forward
2010 Points: 64, 60th overall, 43rd among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $1.921 million

Coming off his entry-level deal, Bobby Ryan is getting stuck between a rock and a hard place with the Anaheim Ducks. I don't think there is any doubt that the Ducks would love to get him signed on to a deal, but the word is that the Ducks are hard up for some working cash and Ryan could be in for a pretty good pay day. After a 35-goal season in 2010, I could see him wanting a $3.5 million or more deal, likely for the long-term. Unfortunately, I would also imagine that the Ducks are thinking, let's get through this season at a more cost-efficient price and then we can talk money next Summer.

Chris Stewart, forward
2010 Points: 64, 61st overall, 44th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $850,000

Also coming off an entry-level deal, Chris Stewart also had a pretty good year for the Avalanche, among one of the younger teams in the NHL. Stewart scored 28 goals for the Avs and should be a pretty good option for some pool teams in the coming year, once he's signed, of course. Stewart is a 2006 1st rounder, who jumped on the bandwagon as a gunner and didn't disappoint. He will probably be looking for some solid scratch in his new deal, but this was the first season that he was really showing flashes at the elite level. Hesitation to sign him to too long or too much is understandable.

James Neal, forward
2010 Points: 55, 93rd overall, 66th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $850,000

There's lots to like about James Neal, he's looked pretty sharp down in Dallas over the past couple seasons. I currently having the Stars with plenty of cap space under the ceiling, but with the lack of a Neal signing and some extra moves during free agency, I would suggest that they might not be playing with much of a budget this Summer and Neal is likely going to have to bite the bullet on this one. He's a good goal scorer and it would put a lot of pressure on the Stars if an offer sheet of about $3 million came in for Neal. That would only warrant a 2nd round pick, a good deal for such a good player.

Patric Hornqvist, forward
2010 Points: 51, 115th overall, 86th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $713,000

In reading today, I have seen a tweet suggesting that Hornqvist and the Predators are very close to a new deal, which would strike him off this list right away. He emerged as a valuable member of the Predators in the regular season and should be getting a pretty reasonable deal out of Nashville.  Hornqvist doesn't have a long reputation of being a good goal scorer in the league, which should hurt his negotiating power, but there should be a nice reward for his good 2010 season.

Steve Downie, forward
2010 Points: 46, 150th overall, 112th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $822,000

Downie is an interesting case for the Tampa Bay Lightning this Summer. Downie, known more as an agitating, rough & tumble forward, really came to light on a line with Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis, which all of a sudden boosted his value, both fantasy-wise and likely with negotiating a new deal. Downie had 46 points and could be a bargain pick in your pool, if you're looking for some improving players. He's due for a raise, but how much will GM Steve Yzerman give?

Niclas Bergfors, forward
2010 Points: 44, 161st overall, 120th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $818,000

Bergfors was having a pretty good year with the New Jersey Devils before getting dealt down to Atlanta in the Ilya Kovalchuk deal at the deadline. In Jersey, he was scoring at 0.5 points-per-game, which looked pretty good on him and then after the move to Atlanta, he picked up his socks and made good use of the Thrashers' desire to have him, scoring at 0.63 points-per-game. Any improvement is a good one, in my books. He should see a nice raise, especially if the Thrashers want him to be that guy.

Sam Gagner, forward
2010 Points: 41, 187th overall, 137th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $1.625 million

The argument pending on Sam Gagner is whether or not he has really lived up to expectations with the Oilers or not. He has been a very streaky player for the Oilers and now the team is bringing up the next crop of young talent, putting some more pressure on Gagner, possibly even giving him someone to play with. The Oilers are starting to count their pennies with some of these large entry-level deals coming onto their books and Gagner may have to take a pay cut, if he wants to guarantee a spot on the team this year.

Erik Johnson, defense
2010 Points: 39, 198th overall, 25th among defense
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $3.7 million

Finally, a defenseman hits the list and it's a pretty good one. Erik Johnson is coming off his entry-level deal after being the 1st overall pick in 2006. Johnson has shown some real flashes of becoming a franchise defender and on the St. Louis Blues, he gets every opportunity to grow and evolve into one. His bonuses on his entry-level deal were pretty big and other than missing an entire year after a freak accident with a golf cart, he has shown that he should be getting paid as a top 30 defenseman in the league. There really is no need for the Blues to be in a big hurry in signing Johnson, as he will likely be looking at $4 million per season, which gets costly. His deal will get done eventually.

Peter Mueller, forward
2010 Points: 37, 218th overall, 157th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $1.7 million

Kind of like Blake Wheeler, Mueller is a kid that has given some NHL teams a real hard time without proving much to anyone and I find it really unusual that they think they can call the shots a bit. Sure, Wheeler did well in his arbitration hearing, but Mueller will look at that and say, why not me? If the Avalanche are going to play a bit of hardball with Chris Stewart, I don't think they will be in any hurry to meet demands by Mueller. Budget teams definitely have a lot more power to play with at the negotiating table than some cap ceiling teams, especially with RFAs.

Bryan Little, forward
2010 Points: 34, 247th overall, 177th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $900,000

Quietly doing a good job in Atlanta, Little has found a nice home with the Thrashers, but has been a little too hot & cold for management's liking. Little was able to post 51 points in the 2009 season, but only 34 points in 2010, so there could be some trouble coming to an agreement right away between the two sides. The Thrashers are a growing team and I would have to think that Little is going to be a part of it, I just don't know how effective he will be with the club in 2010, but that will also depend on who he lines up with.

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