2016 Pool Projections: Edmonton

Well, only days after I wrote my Pool Outlook for Edmonton, mentioning (again) how they would be so much better after they got rid of the Old Boys Club, the Oilers finally started to make some moves.  Bob Nicholson upgraded his role within the organization and then he went ahead and hired Peter Chiarelli, who was let go from Boston, just after the 2015 season ended.  Still during the playoffs, the Oilers added to their revamped staff, hiring a new head coach, Todd McLellan, who mutually parted ways with the San Jose Sharks.

With all of that being said, the culture of the team immediately changes and there is a reason for some real optimism heading into the off-season, not just the media hype that had surrounded all those high picks.  Speaking of high picks, that draft lottery win for the team was also quite fruitful, it's amazing that wasn't pointed out yet.

The new management staff took little time to put their stamp on this team, beyond the Entry Draft, that is, using trades and free agency to round out this roster, answering a few of the questions the general purchasing public were asking, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Sherpa is really impressed with these deals.  A new goalie, an offensive defenseman brought in, some defensive help among the forwards and some unproven players, didn't really boost my confidence in this team, but the McDavid Effect may be larger than life.

Player	Pos	15/16 Proj	Rookie
Taylor Hall	F	75
Connor McDavid	F	75	Y
Jordan Eberle	F	65
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	F	60
Cam Talbot	G	40
Teddy Purcell	F	40
Justin Schultz	D	40
Benoit Pouliot	F	35
Nail Yakupov	F	35
Andrej Sekera	D	35
Leon Draisaitl	F	35
Ben Scrivens	G	30
Lauri Korpikoski	F	25
Oskar Klefbom	D	25
Anton Lander	F	20
Mark Letestu	F	20
Matt Hendricks	F	15
Andrew Miller	F	15	Y
Griffin Reinhart	D	15	Y
Andrew Ference	D	10
Eric Gryba	D	10
Nikita Nikitin	D	10
Mark Fayne	D	10
Rob Klinkhammer	F	5
Luke Gazdic	F	5
Iiro Pakarinen	F	5	Y
Brad Hunt	D	5	Y
Tyler Pitlick	F	5
Anders Nilsson	G	5

Table last updated on August 9th

Most Intriguing or Breakout Player

Does it get more intriguing than Connor McDavid in an Edmonton Oilers jersey? I didn't think so.

The real shame of McDavid's situation is that he can only be taken once in the hockey pool draft and he fits into a number of different spots in this draft, which include this one, as the most intriguing player, he's a possible 1st round pick and he'll be a staple on a pool team winning the rookie points race.

I would say that I have McDavid at a very reasonable projection of 75 points right now and there are plenty of arguments on whether he should go up or down, depending on what you think.

Someone in the pool draft is going to think awfully highly of him this year and will jump on him early.  How big of a gamble is that going to be?

First Round Picks

There is little doubt in my mind that McDavid will be taken in the opening round of the draft and with rookie money on the line this year, you're at least giving yourself a shot at another prize, if he doesn't have the biggest year as a freshman.  He certainly will make someone better, not that Taylor Hall needs that kind of help, he just needs help to stay healthy, which would make him a 1st round pick as well.

Other Pool Worthy Forwards

Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will keep their spots, as some top end talent from the Edmonton organization, while Teddy Purcell will work a solid support role with the team and Benoit Pouliot will be looked upon to do some of the dirty work.

If Nail Yakupov had no drive to break out last season, like I thought he would, there's no reason to think he will this season.  Leon Draisaitl is an interesting case, as he mowed down the junior level with a big performance with Kelowna, but falls in the depth chart to the new kid, which diminishes his potential.

Other Pool Worthy Defense

The Oilers added a former Carolina standout in Andrej Sekera in the off-season, which made a few waves in the pool.  He'll join Justin Schultz as the top two defenders on the team, for offense, so they try to sort out how the team gets the puck out of their zone, when they eventually get possession of it.  Another former 1st round pick, Oskar Klefbom, is now finally coming around, into his own, and could be a good late round defenseman pick-up.

Goaltending Situation

Goaltending in Edmonton... an easy target to be picked on.  This guy isn't working, let's get a new one.  Did management try to improve upon their defense with stalwart defenders before moving on to new keepers?  No.  Welcome to the 2016 season.  The greatest improvement to the defensive formation, on paper, was among the forwards, so there's a good chance that the new kid, Cam Talbot, has a rough time as well.

I don't see Talbot earning most of the minutes in Edmonton, as the finger will be pointed, Ben Scrivens will get a shot, he'll win a few games, then the tables will turn again.  The same old story, destined to play out, until there is some veteran presence, that will certainly put a stop to this nonsense.

Possible Entries Into the Rookie Race

Staying away from the obvious, the Oilers could have a couple more on-ice regulars, which could count in the rookie race this year.  Defenseman Griffin Reinhart, acquired from the Islanders at the Entry Draft, has a reasonable shot at making the Oilers blueline this year and getting a full-time job there.  If so, there's some points.

Otherwise, it's really just depth at this point, maybe a few injury replacement points, nothing imminently full-time.

Team To Pick From Late?

The excitement about the Oilers will move the top guys early and quickly, which will put a strain on the team's depth through the middle rounds.  Once you get down to the dregs, I don't think there is enough there to be too excited about, so you should likely try one of the more developed, deeper teams for the late round depth picks.

Unsigned Players and Salary Cap

It's a pretty good trend this year, seeing a lot of teams dealing with restricted free agency with some sense of urgency.  A lot of teams, including the Oilers, were finished in good time.  All that is left are the Edmonton associated unrestricted free agents, at this time.

Making a couple of big assumptions on McDavid and Draisaitl, this team has a 21-man lineup projected at this time, coming in with $4.1 million of projected cap space to work with.

I'm sure the Oilers would love to be contenders at the trade deadline and be able to use that extra cap space to their advantage, possibly even moving a body or two to upgrade in some positions.  It could happen and if it does, Edmonton could put themselves in a favourable position with that cap space.