Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Sportsnet NHL Pool Guide 2015-2016

Sportsnet... home to everything that is hockey in Canada. They can be a bit wordy on television sometimes and they were accurately able to replicate that effort into their pool guide. When the Hockey News and the Pooler's Guide is worried about the numbers that the players should accomplish, Sportsnet has long diatribes about how they got to some of their numbers and it goes on and on and on.

Their pool guide, which you would think would be full of player projections, only has 230 players in it and there is no real definitive projection, rather they have a ceiling and a floor for each player, saving themselves from the comparison treatment.  I will say, that rounding off their ceiling and floor projections to the nearest five is a very familiar way to do things, which is good, but it isn't enough to really make me like it anymore.

So, with ceiling and floor projections, you're still going to have to use a lot of your own judgement with this guide, maybe more so than the other ones.  You can argue that Nazem Kadri has the skill to hit the 65-point ceiling that Sportsnet suggests for him, but we all know that the Maple Leafs are not going to be a great team and he shouldn't have that much help to reach that plateau.

The goalies are another interesting bunch of players in this magazine, as the magazine only projects their wins and nothing else, so it doesn't give you an accurate look at what they could do for your pool team, especially when shutouts are an extra 2 points.  Will Robin Lehner win 35 games in Buffalo this year?  Somehow I doubt it, no matter how much talent he brings to the table.

No shutouts projected means that this guide leads the way with forwards, which could be problematic for my draft and likely others, as the defensive game still reigns supreme in the league these days.  Nevertheless, Sidney Crosby still leads the way, as his ceiling is set at 110 points, while Patrick Kane, if he plays, is set up at 105 points.  John Tavares, Jamie Benn, Alex Ovechkin, Tyler Seguin and Vladimir Tarasenko are all potential 100-point players and while I won't argue that they can't get to 100 points, it seems rather unlikely that they all will and even one or two would even be a stretch.

Sure, we're going to see some 3-on-3 overtime, but will that really translate into more points for the superstars?

The 90-point bracket, thanks to 45-win ceilings, is where we'll find our first goalies and it's Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne, who all share the honour of being in top spot.  No arguments here.  All three of those goalies have the potential to be the best keeper in the pool and they also have the potential to be the best player in the pool as well.  They are quickly followed by Ben Bishop, Jonathan Quick, Sergei Bobrovsky and Devan Dubnyk, who are all in with 43 wins and 86 points.  If you're going to get an elite starting goalie, you're going to have to be quick, I'd say.

Erik Karlsson leads all defensemen again in this magazine, just like the rest of them, coming in at a 75-point ceiling, tied for 43rd among all players projected in the guide.  That's a good 2nd round pick by this pool's standards.  If you're able to snag an elite goalie and a top end defenseman, you could be rolling in it by the end of the year.

The possibilities for the elite defenders is quite high, as Sportsnet suggests that P.K. Subban, Kristopher Letang, Victor Hedman and Brent Burns are good enough for 70 points this year, but some come with a lower floor projection than others, like Letang, suggesting what we all know, that he has injury prone problems and he could just as easily lose out on points to an extended time on the shelf.

Where you're really going to suffer at my draft, if you take this magazine, is with the rookies.  I've been stressing them this year, because there is money on it.  If you're name is not Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel, you need not apply for this magazine.  Sportsnet touches on a few more names, but they don't offer any ceilings or floors for guys other than the top two picks from this Summer's draft, where McDavid could be a 95-point player and Eichel would only top out at 70 points.  Those are substantial numbers and if you're fortunate to snag one, your placement in the rookie race will be secure.

Now, if you want to sit through long articles on how the new wave of advanced stats are going to possibly help your hockey pool team, then this is the magazine for you.  Yes, there were guys who had some excellent puck possession numbers, but you would have to know that if there are teams that are keying in on those kind of players, thanks to the hiring of advanced statistic analysts, then coaches are going to be on top of it and those numbers could change with the climate of the game.  What players do one year, only gives you an idea about what they did last year... it only gives you reason to pick some players this year, it doesn't guarantee that these players will put up the same numbers again.

In all seriousness, if you're going to bring this magazine to the draft, you better have a supplementary list of players, because this won't be enough.

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