Stralman Signs at the 11th Hour

There will be no arbitration hearings happening on Wednesday, as the last of the scheduled players to have theirs signed at the 11th hour on Wednesday morning. Defenseman Anton Stralman signed a 1-year deal worth $1.95 million, keeping everything rather civil in Columbus and re-adding an important piece to the team's blueline.

Stralman was acquired by Columbus from Calgary, just before the start of last season, and he was an absolute steal by the Blue Jackets, scoring 6 goals and adding 28 assists in 73 games for the club, ranking him 39th among blueliners in the NHL, which is a fantastic ranking to be at, especially for fantasy drafts.  Stralman should attract some interest at the draft this year, especially being the Blue Jackets top scoring defenseman.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Rick Nash	Anton Stralman	Steve Mason
Antoine Vermette	Fedor Tyutin	Mathieu Garon
Kristian Huselius	Kris Russell
R.J. Umberger	Jan Hejda
Jakub Voracek	Mike Commodore
Derrick Brassard	Marc Methot
Chris Clark	Rostislav Klesla
Ethan Moreau
Sami Pahlsson
Derek Dorsett
Andrew Murray
Jared Boll
Nikita Filatov

The Blue Jackets now have 22 players on their team table, plus one buyout on their books for an annual cap hit of $54.5 million, which puts them in great shape for the regular season, but not too much room for any new faces, barring injury, of course.  The Stralman decision really fit nicely into the books for the 2011 season, leaving the team plenty of wiggle room, should they make enough noise in the regular season, maybe to pick up a rental or two along the way and make a good run for the playoffs. 

Caps Re-Sign Fleischmann

The Washington Capitals also avoided arbitration with Tomas Fleischmann, who was scheduled to meet on Wednesday, signing him to a new 1-year deal. The reports have been mixed, but the salary seems to remain the same across the board at $2.6 million, but there is a report of a $100,000 signing bonus, which would lift his cap hit to $2.7 million. I'm going to call it the latter for now, those signing bonuses do run rampant these days.

Fleischmann scored at a pretty good rate in 2010, picking up 51 points (23 goals and 28 assists) in 69 games, 0.74 points-per-game, which would have looked even better if he had managed to play in a few more games. His 51 points have him ranked 89th among all forwards, with some room to grow in 2011 and would be considered a pretty good gamble, if you decided to move him up a little bit.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Alex Ovechkin	Mike Green	Semyon Varlamov
Alex Semin	Tom Poti	Michal Neuvirth
Brooks Laich	Jeff Schultz
Mike Knuble	John Erskine
Tomas Fleischmann	John Carlson
Eric Fehr	Karl Alzner
Jason Chimera
Matt Bradley
David Steckel

The Capitals are showing some good cap management skills, as they should be starting to look more and more at some depth players, with most of their skill already signed on. Right now, I have them with 18 players on their current roster for an annual cap hit of $52.9 million, leaving them with about $6.5 million for their remaining five roster spots.  The Capitals are without any more key restricted free agents, so now they should be looking within to get some depth, possibly one more unrestricted free agent and then the team should be built.  I don't expect too much more from Washington, but we can always be surprised, right?

Brule Re-Signs in Edmonton

It appears that the Oilers got themselves one hell of a deal out of Gilbert Brule, before he was supposed to go to arbitration next week. Brule signed a 2-year deal worth $3.7 million, a $1.85 million cap hit each season, late on Tuesday afternoon. Quite a few of the predictions for Brule's arbitration hearing had him well over $2 million for a 1-year deal, so the team got Brule to tow the company line a bit more.

Brule finally got a chance to show off his stuff with the Oilers this past season, a year after the team acquired him from Columbus in a July 1st deal.  In 2010, Brule played in 65 games with the club (missing 16 games between the flu and an ankle sprain), scoring 17 goals and adding 20 assists for 37 points.  That finished Brule 215th in the league in pool rankings, 154th among forwards and does have plenty of upside to possibly play 80 games and pick up even more points.  He could figure in nicely with some of the younger kids coming in, especially at the pivot position, so he could be a breakout player.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Dustin Penner	Kurtis Foster	Nikolai Khabibulin
Gilbert Brule	Ryan Whitney
Shawn Horcoff	Tom Gilbert
Ales Hemsky	Sheldon Souray
Colin Fraser	Jim Vandermeer
Zach Stortini	Ladislav Smid
Ryan Jones	Taylor Chorney
J-F Jacques

Without question, the Oilers have some work still to do with their line-up, including moving Sheldon Souray and then seeing which kids are ready for the big show right away or not. There will be plenty of movement still to come, but without some of the big name kids, who still have to earn their spots, and some subtractions, the Oilers currently have 18 players on their roster for $42.1 million.  Once you add some of those entry-level deals to this total, the Oilers will have zero problem making the salary cap floor, so stay tuned for training camp, that's when I'll be adding a lot more names to the table.

Ponikarovsky Goes to Los Angeles

This one is going to be more of a quick hit, but Alex Ponikarovsky, number six on my top UFAs remaining list, was signed by the Los Angeles Kings to a 1-year deal worth $3.2 million against the cap on Tuesday, shortly following the Rangers signing Alex Frolov to a deal.  Ponikarovsky played with both the Maple Leafs and the Penguins in 2010, picking up 50 points in 77 games between the two teams, ranking him not far behind Frolov on the pool rankings. 

The Kings have really had to settle with this deal, since they seemed to have lost out on the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes and they also may have burned their bridge with Frolov, so Ponikarovsky becomes the bronze medal (if not worse) in this free agent period for the Kings. I'm sure they would have wanted to spend some money this year, but all that toiling in the Kovalchuk soap opera really set them back. It looks more and more like they might have to draw from their system a little bit deeper, if they can't sort some more free agents out.

Rangers Sign Frolov

The New York Rangers have taken one of the top remaining unrestricted free agents off the market on Tuesday by signing Alexander Frolov to a new 1-year deal worth $3 million. Frolov was ranked 5th on the remaining UFAs list that I had posted a couple of weeks ago and is the highest one from that list to have signed since it was posted.

Frolov played with the Kings in 2010, playing in 81 games, scoring 19 goals and adding 32 assists for 51 points.  That was good enough to put him 119th overall in the NHL, 90th among forwards and now moving to a new team, we would have to assess who he may or may not be playing with to get a better idea of how to project his points for 2011.  51 points in 2010 is nothing to sneeze at and there is a good chance that he should better those totals, if he was as unhappy as it was reported a few times through the grapevine, plus a chance to play with offensive stars like Marian Gaborik and Vaclav Prospal could be good incentive to score more.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Marian Gaborik	Michael Del Zotto	Henrik Lundqvist
Vaclav Prospal	Dan Girardi	Martin Biron
Alexander Frolov	Michal Rozsival
Brandon Dubinsky	Steve Eminger
Ryan Callahan	Matt Gilroy
Chris Drury	Wade Redden
Sean Avery
Artem Anisimov
Erik Christensen
Brandon Prust
Brian Boyle
Derek Boogaard

The Rangers are getting closer and closer to a full roster and the salary cap ceiling, currently sitting with a roster (listed above) of 20 players at an annual cap hit of $57 million. With 12 forwards, 6 defense and 2 goalies, they could in theory run with this line-up, but with Marc Staal and Enver Lisin still to sign as restricted free agents, that number will likely go up and the cap number will surely go past the ceiling.  Days are getting a lot more interesting around the Big Apple and Madison Square Gardens, so keep your eyes peeled for more movements.

Moulson Signs to Avoid Arbitration

Another case of signing before going to arbitration sees Matt Moulson avoid the tattle-tale process by signing a 1-year deal worth $2.45 million on Tuesday.  This signing will take Moulson into unrestricted free agency next Summer and isn't a bad deal for the Islanders if he can repeat the year he had in 2010.

Moulson had a pretty good year in 2010, playing with John Tavares for a good portion of the season, where he scored 30 goals and added 18 assists in all 82 games for the Islanders. That was good enough for 134th in the NHL in pool scoring, 99th among forwards.  Those kind of numbers should put him in good position for the draft this year, if someone was to take a chance on a not-so-proven forward on an Islanders team that may still struggle offensively.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
John Tavares	Mark Streit	Dwayne Roloson
Matt Moulson	Jack Hillen	Rick DiPietro
Frans Nielsen	Bruno Gervais
Blake Comeau	Mark Eaton
Josh Bailey	Andrew MacDonald
Trent Hunter	Milan Jurcina
Robbie Schremp	Brendan Witt
PA Parenteau	Radek Martinek
Zenon Konopka

The Islanders have yet to really improve on their offensive talent in the off-season, sticking with Tavares, Moulson and Bailey, still to sign Kyle Okposo, so I remain very hesitant about going to Long Island for any pool picks right away for the 2011 season.

I'm not terribly sure what the team budget is for the 2011 season, but the Islanders are not going to be anywhere near the salary cap ceiling again, sitting currently with a team table of 20 players at a cap hit of $38.7 million, still a ways from the salary cap floor. Since the team still has to sign Okposo and a couple more players, they should have very few concerns making it up to $43.4 million, the cap floor.

Van Ryn Hangs Them Up

A little further to a blog post at the end of June, Maple Leafs injured defenseman, Mike Van Ryn, has indeed hung up his skates and will elect to put on the suit and tie for an assistant coaching position in the OHL. Van Ryn declared himself unfit for the 2010/'11 season about a month ago, but since opportunity has knocked on his door, he decided to take the job with the Niagra Ice Dogs.

Van Ryn played in 353 NHL games between St. Louis, Florida and Toronto in his career, scoring 30 goals and adding 99 assists. His career-high in points topped out at 37, twice... once in 2004 and the other in 2006. Unfortunately, an injury to his left knee was declared serious enough to have him retire this Summer.

European Signings

It looks like restricted free agency got the best of Jordan Hendry, since he isn't valuable enough to put an offer sheet or compensation towards, his rights will remain with the Blackhawks, who can't sign him due to cap issues, so he'll head over to Europe for a year and make the best of a bad situation. Hendry could have been considered a roster player, if he had signed with the Blackhawks, playing in 48 games and registering 8 points, but he would have been a long shot to become a good fantasy player this year, despite the possibility of more ice-time.

Things haven't been so rosy for Robert Nilsson this Summer. After getting bought out by the Edmonton Oilers, becoming an unrestricted free agent, it appears as though no one is prepared to take a chance on signing the 25-year old free agent forward, so he'll take his trade to Europe as well, possibly earning a little bit more than he possibly could in North America, but in a sub-par league. Check back with him for the 2012 season, as this year is a loss.

Parent Signs New Deal With Predators

The Predators signed Ryan Parent to a new 2-year deal on Monday, worth a total of $1.85 million, a $925,000 cap hit per season. Parent was re-acquired by the Predators from the Flyers in a deal for Dan Hamhuis' rights, a few years after the Flyers acquired his rights from the Predators in a previous deal (can't find the blog post for that trade). 

Between Nashville and Philadelphia, Parent has tried to go through two teams with heavily stocked bluelines in order to get a full-time job in the NHL.  Now back with the Predators, the depth has subsided a bit and he should get a good shot at cracking the team this year.  He played in 48 regular season games with the Flyers, scoring a goal and adding 2 assists, which does qualify him for a spot to lose in camp this year, so I would put him on the radar, but I would wait until training camp before I go and give him a projection for the year.

Raymond Avoids Arbitration With Canucks

It appears the Canucks have avoided the arbitration process with restricted free agent forward Mason Raymond on Monday, signing him to a 2-year deal worth $5.1 million, which works out to be a $2.55 million cap hit each year. Raymond had a breakout year playing with Ryan Kesler and now the former 2nd round pick has a new deal that will see that partnership continue, likely for another couple seasons at the very least.

In 2010, Raymond ranked 105th in my pool points list with 25 goals and 28 assists (for 53 points) in all 82 games for the Canucks, which was also good for being 77th among all forwards. His speed was a definite asset in all situations for the Canucks and he quickly found a regular spot on the team with those good numbers and assets.

With the Canucks getting a little stronger on the blueline, including in some puck-moving areas, and the Canucks forward ranks staying relatively the same, I would suggest that Raymond should improve on his 2010 numbers, but I wouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves, just keep the improvements marginal, unless you want to run that extra gamble.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Henrik Sedin	Christian Ehrhoff	Roberto Luongo
Daniel Sedin	Alex Edler
Ryan Kesler	Sami Salo
Alex Burrows	Keith Ballard
Mason Raymond	Dan Hamhuis
Mikael Samuelsson	Kevin Bieksa
Manny Malholtra	Andrew Alberts
Jannik Hansen	Shane O'Brien
Tanner Glass	Aaron Rome
Rick Rypien
Darcy Hordichuk

The Canucks have now moved into the territory where they are now over the salary cap ceiling, in theory, with this signing. Without Cory Schneider, who is likely going to be their back-up, I have the Canucks sitting with 22 players on their potential roster at a cap hit of $60.6 million. I would still prefer to see Schneider make the Canucks full-time roster before adding him, but even without him, the team is over, so another deal has to be put in place, unless there is going to be a lot of ups and downs to the minors in the coming year.

This deal has worked out well for the Canucks, as there was a popular school of thought that Raymond would be looking at around $3 million (or more) through his arbitration case, but the Canucks managed to get the speedy forward to tow the company line and accept a little less than the suspected amount. Raymond is the last major RFA on the Canucks list to deal with and now it is going to be fine tuning for the club down into training camp.

Arbitration Cases Remaining

Finally, I found a list of the remaining arbitration cases, thanks to James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail and his Facebook page.  Instead of just waiting for these things to happen, I thought I would try and find a list of dates for these guys, since they are pretty well some of the better free agents left on the shelf at the moment.  They are all restricted free agents and cannot be poached by offer sheets after the arbitration filing process had started, but teams do have the chance to walk away from some players, making them unrestricted free agents, if they so see fit.

July 26 - Raymond, Mason, Vancouver Canucks
July 27 - Moulson, Matt, New York Islanders
July 27 - Wheeler, Blake, Boston Bruins
July 27 - Kennedy, Tim, Buffalo Sabres
July 28 - Stralman, Anton, Columbus Blue Jackets
July 28 - Fleischmann, Tomas, Washington Capitals
July 29 - Ladd, Andrew, Atlanta Thrashers
July 29 - Niemi, Antti, Chicago Blackhawks
July 30 - White, Ian, Calgary Flames
July 30 - Fraser, Mark, New Jersey Devils
July 30 - Regin, Peter, Ottawa Senators
Aug. 03 - Brule, Gilbert, Edmonton Oilers
Aug. 03 - Wisniewski, James, Anaheim Ducks
Aug. 03 - Eager, Ben, Atlanta Thrashers
Aug. 04 - DesLauriers, Jeff, Edmonton Oilers
Aug. 04 - Campoli, Chris, Ottawa Senators

Lots of interesting names on here, it will be very interesting to see who gets what or if any sign before their hearings begin.

How Winning Teams Have Picked

Much like yesterday morning's post about how teams finished among forwards, defense and goalie rankings, while being in the money, I thought I would look at the strategy that was (or was not in place) at the Draft itself by the three teams that won the prize in the end. This does not take into account the Waiver Drafts, which happen twice during the year, just the plan that you can read from the first 14 picks of the year.

Year	2008	2009	2010
Round	(picked 15th)	(picked 12th)	(picked 6th)
1st	Forward	Forward	Forward
2nd	Forward	Forward	Forward
3rd	Goalie	Forward	Goalie
4th	Defense	Forward	Defense
5th	Goalie	Forward	Goalie
6th	Defense	Forward	Forward
7th	Forward	Forward	Forward
8th	Defense	Forward	Defense
9th	Defense	Goalie	Defense
10th	Forward	Goalie	Forward
11th	Forward	Defense	Defense
12th	Forward	Defense	Forward
13th	Forward	Defense	Forward
14th	Forward	Defense	Forward

If you take this table above and compare it with the table from yesterday's post, you might be able to see some similarities between where the team finished in each category and how they picked, especially in 2009, where it was the top group of forwards that won the pool and they were all taken right away.

Goaltending is one of the more interesting point spots in the winning formula for the draft, especially since all three teams were in the top four in the pool for goalie points, yet 2009 picked their goalies much later than 2008 and 2010, who were exactly the same, but I think there was a little bit of Waiver Draft magic in there that turned that around too.

It can be said that solid defense can win you this pool, if you don't have phenomenal scoring up front.  Both 2008 and 2010 finished 4th in defense scoring and their four picks are fairly similar, having 4th, 8th and 9th round picks as their defense, only differing from that a little bit otherwise.

Last Three Season Comparisons, by Positional Drafting

For something to do this morning, I thought I would have a look at the last three hockey drafts I've done to see how the top three teams broke down, in terms of position drafting. Does having the best forwards or the best group of defense or group of goalies make any difference?  The rankings below show where these teams ended up, in terms of points compared to the rest of the pool that year.  It's just a generalized idea, nothing too terribly scientific.

First of all, in my drafts, the teams breakdown like this: 8 forwards, 4 defense and 2 goalies per team. In the past three seasons, I have had 17 teams each year participating, which is kind of a fluke, but still interesting. I'm definitely hoping for more teams in 2011, which should increase the competitive level and decrease the overall points, but I think the forwards, defense and goalie rankings should still be comparable.

2008	Points	Forwards	Defense	Goalies
1st Place (Stuart)	820	3rd	4th	3rd
2nd Place (Clayton)	817	1st	12th	13th
3rd Place (Chris)	780	5th	2nd	7th
-----
2009	Points	Forwards	Defense	Goalies
1st Place (Clayton)	787	1st	16th	4th
2nd Place (John B.)	769	5th	6th	9th
3rd Place (Peter)	769	7th	7th	3rd
-----
2010	Points	Forwards	Defense	Goalies
1st Place (Leon)	779	5th	4th	3rd
2nd Place (Wayne)	773	1st	8th	6th
3rd Place (Dale B.)	763	9th	10th	2nd

Consistently, we see the team with the most points from their forwards in the top three and with more forwards, should come a lot more points. The highest ranking between defense and goalies is only 2nd, which happened once each, defense in 2008 and goalies in 2010. 

In the past two seasons, I've had the same guy win the defenseman race, both years he had a fair margin on 2nd place in the category.  In 2009, he finished 14th and in 2010, he finished 4th.  He was way off one year and actually in much better shape last season, obviously learning from his prior mistakes.

In terms of teams leading the pool in goalie points, in 2008 it was a 7th place finish; in 2009, it was a 10th place finish; and in 2010, it was a 10th place finish again.  Getting the best tandem in net doesn't seem to be a great way to go, despite getting a good number of points between only two players.  The goalies are almost a garnish to a good team, but if they are taken too high in this draft, you might be giving up on some more consistent scoring in the early rounds.

Chicago Signs More Cheap Depth

The Blackhawks are going to be in need of some depth in 2011 and the signings of both Brian Bickell and Evan Brophey might be exactly what they are looking for. Bickell signed a 3-year deal with a cap hit of $541,666 per season, while Brophey signed a 1-year deal worth $500,000. Neither of them qualify as roster players until they earn their spots on the roster in September, but as 3rd and 4th line players, they might finally be called to the big show.

Don't forget to watch out for Jeff Taffe, Jack Skille, Jake Dowell and on defense, Ivan Vishnevsky. Don't be too eager to jump on these guys, but keep an eye out on their progress.

Salo Out Indefinitely

The injury news is starting really early this year, as Sami Salo, a favourite among all injured players on the list, has reportedly torn his Achilles tendon playing and working out in Finland. The Canucks confirmed the report and will now list him as out indefinitely. 

In other Achilles tendon injuries listed on the blog, we have been looking at somewhere upwards of 4-to-6 months recovery time, which would put Salo back in the line-up in late-November to late-January.  This will definitely put a large dent in his season, while the Canucks are thankful they had made the acquisitions of Keith Ballard and Dan Hamhuis in the off-season. 

Fantasy-wise, we shouldn't be looking towards Salo any time soon, moving his date back to January would make him a mid-season acquisition, barring any setbacks.  I don't think we have to be specialists to figure this one out.

Brunnstrom Avoids Arbitration

The Dallas Stars and Fabian Brunnstrom have avoided the arbitration process this Summer by inking a 1-year deal worth $675,000 on Friday morning. Brunnstrom, 25, signed with the Stars back in 2008 after being touted as one of the next best players to come out of Sweden, but all that hype has really fallen short in his first two seasons with the Stars.

In 2010, Brunnstrom was only good for 11 points in 44 games with the club, thanks in large part to a shoulder injury and a rehab stint in the minors to fully recover. He has shown some flashes in his career, but nothing that really suggest he's fantasy worthy this year. If we were to compare hype to results, he'd be a pretty big bust.

Hansen Signs Arbitration Decision

Jannik Hansen and the Vancouver Canucks had their arbitration ruling drop on Thursday, a 1-year deal worth $850,000. In the afternoon on Thursday, the decision was agreed upon by both sides and Hansen will be sure of a job in the 2011 season, likely playing more on the 3rd line again.

In 2010, Hansen played in 47 games for the Canucks, scoring 9 goals and adding 6 assists for 15 points. That was only good for 494th overall in league scoring, 309th among forwards. His role, however, is more of a defensive and forechecking one, so scoring is not the biggest priority in his game.

Pavelec Re-Signs With Thrashers

The Atlanta Thrashers have re-signed Ondrej Pavelec on Thursday, giving him a new 2-year deal worth $2.3 million, which is a $1.15 million cap hit each year. Pavelec split time with Johan Hedberg in 2010, playing in 2,317 minutes, winning 14 games, 2 by shutout and adding an assist.

With Chris Mason now in the mix for the 2011 season in Atlanta, it won't be any easier getting time in the crease, as Mason should be coming in there to run the number one job for a while. Pavelec will certainly have his work cut out for him and I'm expecting a drop in his time on ice, which should lead to a drop in numbers.

Reasoner Heads Back to the Southeast

			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Florida	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Marty Reasoner	Forward	33	80	4	13	17	1	$1.15 million
--------------
To Chicago	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jeff Taffe	Forward	29	21	1	1	2	1	$550,000

The Southeast Division looks to be the perfect dumping grounds for the Chicago Blackhawks, using the Atlanta Thrashers to move some players and now using the Florida Panthers to move a previously acquired forward back to the division he came from.

The Blackhawks have dealt Marty Reasoner to the Panthers for minor-league forward Jeff Taffe on Thursday, thus moving some more salary cap space for a player that will likely count minimally against the cap in 2011.  Since Reasoner had not played a game with the team yet, he was likely one of the easier players to move, especially for the cheap price of Taffe.  Of course, there is a chance that Taffe makes the Blackhawks team out of training camp, more in the sense of cheap depth more than actual skill.  He is old enough to have some veteran savvy, but not enough games in his NHL career to call it experience.

As of today, this trade strictly moves Reasoner's cap hit off the Blackhawks' books and onto Florida's. Taffe will be added on, only if he makes it onto the team in September, which to me seems like a bit of a longshot. That being said, I have a current player total of 15 players on the Blackhawks roster and bonus penalties tacked on for a cap hit of $58 million. Lots can change from here on in. The Panthers on the other hand, have 18 players signed on for $45.7 million.