Pool Outlook for Colorado

The analytics crowd have already trumpeted a win on how the Colorado Avalanche were going to fall on their faces in the 2015 season, because they did and it was somewhat spectacular at that.

For me, the Avalanche were still a young team going into the 2015 season and despite some veteran additions to their lineup, the main focuses, from an opponent standpoint, was taking away the young budding superstars and leaving some of those veterans to do their thing.

There were times when one age group would shine, then there were other times where the other would shine and once and a while, they both would come together and work well, blowing out opponents.

The Avalanche were consistently inconsistent in 2015, but at the same time, a good portion of their team was learning through the tough times.  It may not be a good year on paper, but I think there are some definite pluses to take away and some lessons learned.

Despite being a disappointing team in 2015, the Avalanche were still somewhat popular in the hockey pool, thanks to their large scoring expectations.  There were also a couple of mid-season pick-ups as well during the Waiver Draft, so it wasn't like they were completely useless.  At the end of the year, there were 12 Avalanche players on active hockey pool rosters and no players on the Avalanche roster that were dropped at all.  That says something about how much faith the pool had in their inconsistent play... 'they'll eventually score something, right?'

The number one goalie in Colorado, Semyon Varlamov, had a pretty long leash in the net this season, as he played a lot of games and ate up a lot of minutes, despite a pretty wonky groin through the year.  The beginning of his season was pretty rough, but when he turned it around the Avalanche made a few good pushes towards the playoffs, but eventually fell short, hardly any of the blame really falling on their Russian netminder.  Overall, he won 28 games and registered 5 shutouts for 66 points, which was good enough for 17th overall among goalies and 42nd overall among all players.

There was a solid depth to the Avalanche forwards for pool candidates and that was somewhat expected at the beginning of the year, but there was also an expectation that they would shoot the lights out too, but we had to temper our expectations a little.  Jarome Iginla and Gabriel Landeskog were 1-2 in forwards scoring, both with 59 points this season, while Alex Tanguay, Matt Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly all finished with 55 points this year.  It was all capped off with sophomore sensation, Nathan MacKinnon, who had 38 points and didn't finish the last five weeks with a broken foot.

On the blueline, the Avs were able to have three players qualify for pool consideration this year, as Tyson Barrie stepped up with 53 points, ranking 8th among blueliners this year, while Erik Johnson, who also suffered a late season injury, finished with 23 points and Zach Redmond had 20 points.  I don't think offense from the blueline was the biggest concern, but helping to keep the puck out of their own net was a little bit of an issue.

Behind Varlamov, the Avalanche worked a couple of different options both to around the same levels of success.  Reto Berra and Calvin Pickard were both auditioning for the backup job in 2016 and both finished the year with 12 points, Berra with 6 wins, Pickard with 5 wins and a shutout.  Tough call.

2016 Pool Outlook

The two veteran forwards that helped guide this team are coming back for another year and I think it would take the Summer for these kids to really get their legs under them and learn what it was all about in the end.  I truly believe that the outlook for the Avalanche is quite positive, as the pieces are in place and there is a sense that they will start to find their way before too long.  Most of the big pieces are in place, they just need to make sure that they are all pointed in the right direction and they have adequate support.

A couple of Avalanche players made their NHL debuts in 2015 and still have rookie status for 2016, forward Joey Hishon and defenseman Duncan Siemens and they should finally have something to prove here this season.  Both players are former 1st round picks in the Entry Draft and they have been toiling in the minors for quite some time.  With some subtractions through free agency, these two may have some spots to compete for, but for how young this team already is, they'll have to be lights out to stick.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Speaking of free agency, there really isn't a lot heading out to the free market this Summers, but out of that small group, three of them were roster regulars, so there is some gaps opening up there.  Forward Daniel Briere and defensemen Jan Hejda and Ryan Wilson are all up for unrestricted free agency and it will be interesting to see if any or all are kept around.

Restricted free agency is a little more interesting, as goalie Calvin Pickard highlights the group and it will be interesting to see what he agrees to, as the team still has Reto Berra under contract for another year.  Joey Hishon is also looking for a new deal and if he wants a shot at showing his offensive prowess, he'll want a one-way deal.

Against a $71.1 million projected cap, which is likely to change here in the next few weeks, the Avalanche have a total number of signed players at 37 and they are well under the cap.  You start taking away minor-league talent and pare down to a 23-man roster, the Avalanche are in pretty good shape.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

The Avalanche really went all out with a lot of their young players over the last few years, so it would be in their best interest to find some more help at the forward position and with the 10th overall pick, they should be able to do that.  Colorado likes that multi-faceted look to their young players and that could drop into the field of Finnish prospect Mikko Rantanen, who has some exceptional size and the scouting reports suggest his compete level is quite high, which would play right into the coach's hands.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

How do I think the Avalanche will fare in 2015? I don't necessarily see a repeat of the regular season Central Division title, but I can see the Avalanche staying in the race. Chicago, St. Louis and Minnesota will all be ready to take them down, all will be aiming for them, but the Avalanche's leadership core in Landeskog, Duchene and O'Reilly (assuming he re-signs) should act as great role models down the stretch, which keeps them in the playoff hunt. Varlamov has established himself as a true number one goalie and he'll need to stay healthy for a big run, but that is something you can't predict at this time of the off-season. I look for the Avalanche to win games, score goals and be great for us poolies. They shouldn't do badly for their fans either.

In essence, I said that the Avalanche would score goals, which would lead to winning games and helping us poolies out significantly.  They were 21st overall in goals for this season, so by comparison, no, they didn't help us poolies out, it was quite the opposite.  The leadership core took some hard lessons this season, but also were offered up some sage advice (I can only assume) from the likes of Jarome Iginla, who was added in the off-season, after the outlook was published.  Overall, the Avalanche were not the team that they were last year, we all know that as a fact, but it was a disappointing season, in terms of scoring for us poolies, so we'll call it kinda 50-50.

The Colorado Avalanche have to be looking at their rebuilt marvel and saying to themselves that they don't want to end up like the Edmonton Oilers in their rebuild process, having all kinds of upside talent, but no depth to help the team compete.  The Avalanche already have the experience of a division title under the belts of their core, but that experience becomes fleeting, when they can't follow it up.  It will be up to the management to infuse this roster with some quality depth and only then, will they be built to succeed.  If the Avalanche look to that quality depth in the off-season, I think they have a real shot at working their way back into the playoffs, more likely as a wild card, but could sneak into the #3 spot in the Central, if St. Louis falls out.