Pool Outlook for Florida

The Florida Panthers were an interesting club in 2015, made possible by the number one overall pick in the Entry Draft last Summer, Aaron Ekblad, who, I think, was better than advertised on the blueline.  Ekblad is now a part of a core group of players, which has some real upside coming around in the next few years or sooner.

Sure, the Panthers didn't make the playoffs in 2015, but they were much, much closer to them than anyone had expected and with how open the Eastern Conference really was this year, they were able to take advantage of some wide open points in the standings, some of which were not readily available, only a year previous.

The team's General Manager, Dale Tallon, has done a good job in his career as upper-management in the NHL, building a young core and supplanting it with veteran help.  When this team had the chance of picking up Jaromir Jagr from the New Jersey Devils, he jumped on it, knowing full well what he would bring to the lineup, both on and off the ice.  Jagr was instrumental in helping young players like Jonathan Huberdeau and Alexander Barkov in restarting their seasons offensively, once they hit a mid-season lull that was awfully extensive.

Nine Panthers players finished the season on an active draft team roster in the hockey pool, while three others in the organization, including Dany Heatley, who started the year in Anaheim, finished as drops through the year, so there was a good portion of players taken from the Florida Panthers in 2015 and I think there might be a little staying power with a few of these guys next season.

The Panthers really lacked that scoring punch through the year, which tempered Roberto Luongo's numbers somewhat, as their number one goalie was ranked 12th among goalies in minutes played, but only managed to win 28 games and be worth 60 points in the end.  He was still managing 1.02 points for every 60 minutes played and had some good stretches in the year, but when the Panthers were cold, his numbers suffered more.  Still, he was 73rd overall in points and 20th among goalies for the honour.  If things are looking for this franchise, Luongo should still have enough in the tank to improve his numbers too.

The only other player to finish in the top 100 overall in pool scoring was forward Jonathan Huberdeau, who had 54 points in 79 games, only 6 points shy of my projection for him at the beginning of the season.  Huberdeau is still looked towards as the quarterback of these forwards and rightfully so.  The Panthers did have six other forwards, by the end of the year, that would be considered pool worthy: Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen, Nick Bjugstad, Brad Boyes, Alexander Barkov and Jimmy Hayes.  There is a full expectation that they'll all be back and ready to go for 2016, so there will be an element of familiarity in there.

There were also three defensemen worth a mention in the hockey pool numbers, as rookie Aaron Ekblad was 27th among blueliners with 39 points, leading the way, followed by Brian Campbell and Dimitri Kulikov, 27 and 22 points respectively.  When the Panthers got on the board, there was at least someone from the blueline picking up a point, here and there.  That's the sort of thing that can really boost a team, when those numbers start to increase.

When you have a guy that can eat crease minutes like Luongo, back-ups are not going to fare well in these numbers and Florida's didn't this year either.  Al Montoya, the regular back-up, finished with 12 points, not worthy of a back-up mention, really.

2016 Pool Outlook

You may have gathered already, but I think there is plenty of upside in this Florida Panthers roster going forward and with a few restricted free agents to look after, this team has most of their growing and maturing roster already locked up and ready to go.  I have a feeling we'll see some growth in this team, so much so, they'll really compete for that wild card spot, which means that they will be ripe for the picking in the hockey pool next year.

This team has a few young players that will vie for a spot on next year's roster, but I would imagine space would be hard to come by, especially when the free agents are locked up.  2011 2nd round pick, Rocco Grimaldi made an appearance this year, playing in 7 games, still holding onto his rookie status... he could be one of the players that gets a longer look in camp.  2011 3rd round pick, Kyle Rau, fresh out of college will definitely be another one of those guys too.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

No one on their unrestricted free agency list has really much for pool value, but Scottie Upshall and Tomas Kopecky up front, Dan Ellis in the crease, these are the ones that will headline the UFA class out of Florida.  Once these three move out, I would think this would make a bit more room for some youth and speed in both positions.

Without a doubt, the most high profile RFA to hit the blog in these outlook posts is Florida's Jonathan Huberdeau, who needs a new deal after his entry-level deal expires this Summer.  I would have a hard time thinking that he will get a bridge deal, as his career trajectory is going the right way, but it would definitely help the organization if he did sign one.  Forward Jimmy Hayes is another pool worthy RFA on the list, although, not quite as high profile.

Today, I have the Panthers in with 30 players signed, although 26 of them are registered with cap hits at the moment and they total $60.3 million, well under the projected $71.1 million that we have seen so far this Spring.  Deals to Huberdeau and Hayes will likely take a sizeable chunk, one more so than the other, but still, it will cost them.  With the core as young as it is, they are still in great shape.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

The Panthers have already been stocking up on defense and some of that stocked up talent might come around for next season, so it might be in their best interest to go out and find some more dynamic scoring.  With a legendary Czech hanging around for another year, bringing Pavel Zacha to camp would likely have a huge effect on the kid.  Zacha can reportedly skate well, which will likely have the greatest effect on the roster, if he was to crack it, as they keep the pace up in Florida and they might be able to find the skill to match.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

GM Dale Tallon has done a good job to slowly build up his prospect pool and gain some stable pieces to his puzzle, but his franchise is far from ready to compete for the long-term. As good as Luongo may be, an unstable blueline can and will be the death of this franchise. Dimitri Kulikov, Dylan Olsen and Erik Gudbranson are all under 25 years old, but are coming along. Finding some solid veteran help for these kids will be key, since Campbell and Jovanovski haven't been able to fill those qualifications of late. Unless the Florida blueline can improve with veteran leadership and experience, I cannot see much improvement in the standings for 2015. Today, I still expect to see the Panthers in the bottom five of the league, come 365 days from now.

It's about a month before 365 days from then, so it isn't an exact science, but we'll manage, I'm sure.  The Florida Panthers didn't end up in the bottom five of the league, but they certainly didn't make the playoffs.  This rise in the ranks can definitely be attributed to their blueline, not only in veteran leadership, with the acquisition of Willie Mitchell, but also with some pseudo-veteran leadership in rookie defender, Aaron Ekblad.  Both players were instrumental in solidifying that back six and then the pick-up of Jaromir Jagr at the deadline, gave this team so much more experience and they held their own for a while, looking for that playoff spot.  What they added certainly helped and I think they can finally move forward with confidence.

I am always weary of sophomore players and their impact on a team and I wouldn't exclude Ekblad from that thinking, but one of the big differences between a kid like Ekblad and Nathan MacKinnon, is that Ekblad's job is defense and his offense is a definite bonus, where it's the other way around for MacKinnon and harder to make up when he's not scoring.  I think the Panthers, building around that core, are going to make strides in the right direction and they will be in the mix for that wild card spot or they'll just miss.  The way these playoff battles have gone in the past few years, it's only a few points difference between making it and being two or three spots away.  I really do like their chances of making it next year.