Monday, August 17, 2015

2016 Pool Projections: San Jose

The San Jose Sharks transition in the off-season sees a new coach behind the bench, as Peter DeBoer takes on the challenge of motivating the likes of Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, as they get on in age, trying to nudge them towards another Cup run.

There were a couple of notable changes in the projected lineup as well, most notably in the crease, as Antti Niemi was shipped off to Dallas and Martin Jones was brought in to take his place.  A little more veteran presence was also added to the roster, as forward Joel Ward and defenseman Paul Martin will give the team's youth some reasonable experience to feed from.

The Sharks enjoyed their best successes, when their offense was running wild over their opposition, so they are undoubtedly in need of a spark that will get their offense going, giving Jones a chance at some wins, while he plays the solid game that he's been earning a reputation for.  Will the coaching change be enough?  How about Martin at the point on the power play?  What about a new face to the league?  Their 1st round pick in June, Timo Meier, may be NHL-ready as well.

Player Pos 15/16 Proj Rookie
Joe Pavelski F 70
Martin Jones G 70
Logan Couture F 65
Joe Thornton F 60
Brent Burns D 55
Patrick Marleau F 55
Tommy Wingels F 40
Tomas Hertl F 35
Paul Martin D 35
Joel Ward F 30
Marc-Edouard Vlasic D 30
Matt Nieto F 25
Melker Karlsson F 25
Justin Braun D 25
Alex Stalock G 20
Ben Smith F 20
Brenden Dillon D 20
Chris Tierney F 15
Barclay Goodrow F 15
Mirco Mueller D 15
Julius Bergman D 15 Y
Raffi Torres F 15
Timo Meier F 10 Y
Matt Tennyson D 5
Troy Grosenick G 5 Y
Bryan Lerg F 5
Mike Brown F 5

Table updated on July 27th

Most Intriguing or Breakout Player

Could this finally be the year, where the Sharks become Little Joe's team? Joe Pavelski has been in the shadows of Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau for quite a while now and with the two aged superstars waning through their final days, team management and the coaching staff may lean quite heavily on Pavelski going forward, trying to inch out the old dogs.

I think we'll finally see Pavelski overtake both Thornton and Marleau for the team scoring lead and then earn that leadership role by example and not by necessity.

Little Joe has been a good player in these hockey pools, but now I think he takes a step in the right direction, both with his team and whoever snags him at the draft.

First Round Picks

In years previous, you wouldn't be able to get through the 1st round of the draft without one of the big Sharks going in there.  Last year, Niemi was taken in the opening round, 19th overall, but now that he's gone, is there enough faith in Jones to have him take his place?  My projections suggest that you may want to wait until the 2nd round.

Other Pool Worthy Forwards

By my count, there are a total of seven forwards that should be considered, a few already noted in the post in Pavelski, Thornton, Marleau and Ward.  You won't want to forget about Logan Couture, who is poised to have a pretty good year, while Tommy Wingels is making good progress in the scoring department and the flashy Tomas Hertl should be good for a possible bargain pick in the later rounds.  The Sharks will score some goals, but their level of dominance is still in question.

Other Pool Worthy Defense

Much like Dustin Byfuglien in Winnipeg, Brent Burns seems to be just as effective (if not more so) from the blueline, as he is up front.  Burns was the number two defenseman in the league in scoring, so he'll be a very hot commodity at the draft in October.  Newcomer Paul Martin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun should also figure in nicely.

I would also look to Brenden Dillon as a possible sleeper defender, especially in a deep draft.

Goaltending Situation

The Martin Jones/Alex Stalock combination, albeit a relatively inexperienced combination, has some potential to at least keep the Sharks in some of the playoff conversations, which means there should be points to be had.  It should be assumed that Jones will take the brunt of the work and rightfully so, groomed as an NHL number one for some time now.

Possible Entries Into the Rookie Race

The Sharks are not exactly brimming with young talent, but they have some potential to put a rookie or two into the race this year.  As noted earlier, Timo Meier, their 1st round pick this year, has been touted as a kid that could possibly make the jump, while defenseman Julius Bergman could take advantage of a possible opening in the 6-7 blueline spots.  I would imagine that if either make that leap, they may be better served to be taken at the Waiver Draft, than at the big draft in October.

Team To Pick From Late?

The depth on this Sharks team isn't too bad and could make for a few sleeper picks, like a Matt Nieto or a Melker Karlsson up front or even maybe Mirco Mueller from the blueline.  These Sharks are not quite like some of their previous year predecessors, but they may still be able to find a way to pick up some points.  If you're struggling for a name you recognize, maybe some teal will compliment your team nicely.

Unsigned Players and Salary Cap

Salary CapWith much of this team's change, they have been able to give themselves a little bit more salary cap flexibility, as my count on their projected roster shows 21 players signed on, with $5.4 million in available cap space to work with.  One of the leading contributors to the change in cap flexibility is the change in goal, as Niemi was a fairly expensive option.

The team was clear of their main restricted free agent responsibilities early on in the off-season, so there was very little stress in the team's management.

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