Saturday, June 14, 2014

Pool Outlook for Pittsburgh

When you have two of the best players in the world, everyone is going to expect big things from those players and the team they play for.  This was indeed the case again for the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2014 season.

Not winning the Stanley Cup has to be the measure of a successful season and the lack of a championship in 2014 should signal that the season was a failure of sorts.  Yes, there were some individual successes, but it just wasn't enough and the Penguins have instituted some change, both at the management level and the coaching staff.  Out went GM Ray Shero and head coach Dan Bylsma and now former Carolina Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford takes charge and he is still looking for his new coach.

The job for Rutherford will be to find the correct mix of talent to play with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, shoring up the defense in front of Marc-Andre Fleury and finding ways to win harder hockey games.  It isn't an easy job, given how tightly held a lot of quality talent has been in the league, as parity has given teams a way to compete financially.  The difference between good teams and great teams has been depth and coaching, something some people would argue the Penguins have lacked since their last Cup win.

As for us poolies, we all love having a taste of the Penguins on our roster, especially the better players on the team, because you know they are good for points, when they're healthy, of course.  There should be no reason for that to change any time soon.

Surprisingly, this is the first year that Sidney Crosby finished atop of the pool scoring rankings.  In 2007, he was the top forward in the pool rankings, but he didn't win the overall title, losing to Martin Brodeur that year.  Nevertheless, Crosby finished the year with 36 goals and 68 assists (104 points) in 80 games, the only player to hit the century mark in the points column.  Even though this is the first time Crosby has been at the pinnacle of the rankings, he has been the 1st pick in many drafts and so he should be.  Any time he is healthy, he has the potential to be great.

Five of the Penguins forwards, including Crosby, finished in the top 75 in overall scoring and even a touch better, when compared to only forwards.  Evgeni Malkin missed 22 games this season and still finished 25th overall in scoring with 72 points in 60 games.  If Malkin can stay healthy, he can dominate as much as Crosby some nights.  Chris Kunitz scored 35 goals and 68 points in 78 games, making him one of the more potent trigger men in the league.  James Neal and Jussi Jokinen round out the top forwards with 61 and 57 points each.

It was somewhat of a rough year for the Penguins blueline, but out of that adversity, came a couple of names to lead the way.  Matt Niskanen was the top scoring defender in Pittsburgh, finishing with 46 points in 81 games, good enough for 13th at the position.  Rookie Olli Maatta impressed many with his 29-point year in 78 games with the club.  Kristopher Letang battled injury and a stroke in 2014, limiting his season to only 37 games, where he still managed to fit in 22 points.  Paul Martin also went through an injury-plagued year, limiting his play to only 39 games, where he was only good for 15 points.

Faith in Marc-Andre Fleury in the regular season was almost necessary, with Tomas Vokoun on the shelf and a relatively unknown Jeff Zatkoff on the bench, but that faith was rewarded with 39 wins, 5 shutouts for 88 points, making him the 2nd best goalie in pool scoring, 3rd overall in points.  Fleury's play in the playoffs will always be questioned, but it sounds like he'll continue to have a vote of confidence, even with the new management coming in.

2015 Pool Outlook

There is a good chance that the supporting cast around Crosby and Malkin may be a bit different, come opening night in October, but you can rest assured that the best players will still be their best players.  The real money is made when you find the new guys that they play with and have a points windfall on late round draft picks.  I would expect Crosby, Malkin and Fleury to go really early, Letang may get some early consideration, assuming he gets all the proper clearance in the off-season to continue.  I am expecting to see Maatta go fairly early in the pool as well, as people try to cash in on some good blueline talent.

Talking about good blueline talent, some of the better prospects in the Pittsburgh system are defensemen and this year, the blueline may find one or two of their bright, young prospects emerge as cost-efficient options.  Derrick Pouliot, Scott Harrington and Brian Dumoulin all are being touted to have some serious upside, so they will be ones to watch this year.  All of them have shown their stuff on big stages before, so the move to the NHL will be somewhat smoother than some.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency has the potential to really clean the shelves for the Penguins, with some regular roster players and other rental players needing brand new deals, either in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.  Forwards Jussi Jokinen, Lee Stempniak, Marcel Goc, Joe Vitale and Tanner Glass, defensemen Matt Niskanen, Brooks Orpik and Deryk Engelland and goalie Tomas Vokoun are all in need of a new contract.

The Penguins don't have many pressing needs on the restricted free agent front, but Brandon Sutter does head the list and will be a priority for the team, likely with a bridge deal.  Forward Brian Gibbons and defenseman Simon Despres will also get some upgraded priority, I would think.

With all that free agency madness ahead of them, the Penguins will see who would fit best with their 14-man core that they have at the moment, which consists of seven forwards, five defensemen and their 2014 goalies back for another year.  Currently, their cap hit comes in at $55.1 million, which leaves them close to $16 million for nine more players.  Of course, they already have their big guns locked in, so it will be spread out amongst their depth, which shouldn't be too costly.

If Crosby already has Kunitz on his side, then Malkin should be rewarded with a winger to call his own as well.  Enter Nikita Scherbak, also a fellow Russian, plays the right side of the ice and has some dynamic playmaking ability.  The knock on Scherbak appears to be his skating, but if you could likely say the same thing about Malkin and it doesn't set him back much at all.  Although there are some situations where speed can really hurt your opposition, knowing where to be on the ice can be applied in all situations and makes players better.  This is what the likes of Malkin and potentally Scherbak have in common.

If it was enough to win the Cup by just having the best players in the league, there would be no need to play games in the league.  Unfortunately for the Penguins, it has been the playing of the games that has cost them the championships, but that's why they play and why we watch.  As I've said in a couple other outlooks, the real key to Cup wins these days is coaching and depth and those are the two things Pittsburgh are looking for this Summer.

The Penguins are a curious beast.  They have all kinds of firepower, but defensively and the occasional night in goal, they do seem to be liable for an off-night here and there.  They will be able to string wins together, that much we can all be certain about, but it will be that depth that carries the team as far as they will go.  It does sound like change is on the horizon for the Penguins, but how much and how effective it will be is still up in the air.  I don't see the Penguins winning the Metropolitan Division as easily, if at all, under the pretense that guys like Orpik or Niskanen make it to free agency.  An upgrade on the blueline is needed to repeat their regular season performance and if they don't get it, they'll drop a spot or two.

Kings Win! The Playoffs Are Over!



The Stanley Cup was in the house for a second night on Friday and I could imagine that it didn't really want to make the cross-country trek to the East Coast either.

Under their own roof, the Los Angeles Kings managed to overcome a ridiculously solid Henrik Lundqvist in the New York Rangers net in double overtime in Game Five to win hockey's greatest prize.  The second Cup for the Kings in the last three years.

Game Five was a pretty good mix of momentum swings, offensive rushes going both ways and some amazing goaltending.

The 1st period was about the Kings pressure on the Rangers, as they looked like the team that wanted to end it right away and it was a Justin Williams backhander that opened up the scoring, making it 1-0 after the opening frame.

The 2nd period saw a bit more Kings pressure, but the Rangers didn't want to be denied in the middle frame.   Chris Kreider capitalized on a Dwight King penalty to tie the game up at 1-1 and then shortly after, during a Kings power play, Brian Boyle scored a beauty, far post shelf, shorthanded for a Rangers lead at the break.

Of course, in the final frame, the Kings were not going to be denied.  Heading into the 3rd period, the Kings had only allowed 12 shots on Jonathan Quick, so like you would assume (or would you?), they tightened up the ship even more and poured on the offense in the Rangers zone.  Sure enough, a silly Mats Zuccarello penalty was enough to get the Kings back on level pegging, as Marian Gaborik cleaned up in front of the net, tying the game up with a garbage pick-up stop.

After tying up the game, there wasn't stopping how much pressure the Kings had on Lundqvist and the Rangers, but Lundqvist did have all the answers in the rest of the regulation period, sending the game into overtime.

If you weren't entertained by the first 60 minutes of the game, then you had to have been by the first overtime.  Sure, no one scored and we needed to go to another period, but that was some firewagon hockey, charging back and forth, up and down the ice, chances at both ends.  It was more like both teams wanting to win, rather than not to lose.  In the first overtime, the Kings outshot the Rangers, 13-10.  The Rangers almost had as many shots in the overtime than they did in all of regulation, giving you an indication of just how open it was.

With just over five minutes to go in the second overtime period, another one of those great rushes up the ice played out in a textbook fashion for the Los Angeles Kings, as a Tyler Toffoli shot hit Lundqvist in the right leg pad, kicking out a fat rebound to an on-rushing Alec Martinez, who was unmarked down the wing, leaving him to score his third game-winner of these playoffs... Kings win!

I would say that Game Seven of the Western Conference Finals was likely the better game, but another double overtime game in the Finals was a good finish to a long season and playoffs.  Congratulations to the Kings for their victory.

Game Five's notable players... Alec Martinez with the winner and Jonathan Quick with the win.  Those were the only two that came up with multiple points in the clincher, each coming away with 2 points a piece.

It was certainly a well-deserved honour for Justin Williams to come away with the Conn Smythe Trophy, as his clutch play for the Kings was rewarded with some serious recognition.

In the hockey pool, the MVP was Quick, as his 16 wins and 2 shutouts were good enough for 36 points, a good 7 points clear of Lundqvist in pool scoring.  The top scoring skater in the hockey pool was indeed Williams, who took the tie-breaker over teammate Anze Kopitar, both finishing with 27 points.

Chicago Blackhawks forwards Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews were the best players, in terms of game-winners, each coming away with 4 bonus points each.

 photo prizemoney.gifWell, now is the best time to be a pool manager, as you get to make some people happy with some prize money.  The prizes were announced nearly six weeks ago already and now I get to announce our winners.  I will likely be sending money via the Interac Money Transfers over the next few days, so hold tight, we'll get everyone all sorted out.

First of all, a hearty congratulations to Travis G., who finished the pool with 266 points, finishing with a strong 21-point effort in the Stanley Cup Finals, defending his position over Corey M. and Gus M.'s first team, each finishing with 262 points.  Corey's team takes 2nd place on the goals scored tie-breaker, as his team topped Gus' 66-57.  Don't feel too bad for Gus, as his second team finished in 4th place, in an unprecedented result, as no one has ever won prizes with each of the two teams they entered, but Gus went with a gut feeling, obviously, and came away with two prizes.

Travis will walk away with $300, Corey will receive $100 and for 3rd & 4th place, Gus will receive $70.  Another congratulations to our winners.

Bring on the off-season!  The time to get ready for next year's hockey pool draft starts now...

Friday, June 13, 2014

Timonen Re-Signs In Philly

The Philadelphia Flyers didn't let defenseman Kimmo Timonen head to unrestricted free agency, signing him to a new 1-year deal for the 2015 season, which could be worth upwards of $4 million, due to bonuses.

The 39-year old Finn had an okay year with the Flyers in 2014, finishing 36th among all defensemen in scoring with 6 goals and 29 assists in 77 games.

Timonen still has plenty of hockey pool value left in him, although it is dropping somewhat.  I don't think there is any reason why you wouldn't pick Timonen for your pool team, as he will still help the team's power play and manage to manufacture some points in other ways.  He played in 77 games last season, which suggests his durability is still above par for the most part.  He isn't relied upon to be the number one guy in Philadelphia, so that has to help as well.

Salary CapThe signing may complicate the Flyers' salary cap picture, because I now have the team in with 17 players, meaning there are six roster spots left, with only $7.2 million left in cap space.  This either means the Flyers will only be looking for some cheap help for next season or there are going to be some bodies shipped out to make space for a splash in the free agent pool.  There is speculation that Vincent Lecavalier ($4.5 million) may be the odd-man out, offered to the highest (or the lowest, as the case may be) bidder.

Pool Outlook for St. Louis

There were some high expectations on the St. Louis Blues for the 2014 season, as the team that was built to play a rough & tumble game, modeled to grind games out and have a solid playoff-style game, didn't quite pan out the way they wanted it.

I think it is a fair argument to suggest that the Blues built their team to either compete against their division rivals in Chicago or at the very least, play like them.  In the end, round one of the playoffs, the Blues didn't quite have that playoff pedigree to get past the Blackhawks and they were left with more questions than answers.

The Blues narrowly missed out on the Central Division title, finishing a point behind the Colorado Avalanche for the distinction in the regular season, but with their destiny in their own hands, the Blues dropped their last six games and went into the playoffs on a serious down note.  The acquisition of Ryan Miller from the Sabres didn't give the team that added boost down the stretch or in the playoffs, but it was a gamble they were more than willing to take.

St. Louis has a solid core group of players, which should keep the team competitive in the West for a few more years, but they may have a limited window where they can be considered potential Cup champions.  Thankfully, in those years, they will also be a great place to pick players from for the hockey pool.

A couple of injuries really hurt the Blues' leading scorer, who was scoring goals at a torrid pace to start the year.  Alex Steen finished the 2014 season with 33 goals and 29 assists (62 points) in only 68 games, which put him 51st overall in pool scoring, 35th among all forwards.  Steen suffered a concussion in January, followed by a lower-body injury and then an upper-body in the late stages of the season, so despite scoring a bunch for the Blues, he did incur a pretty hard year.

The Blues were able to boast five 20-goal scorers, including Steen, up front in the 2014 season, but a number of minor injuries kept the team from being overly consistent with their line-ups.  T.J. Oshie scored 21 goals and 60 points in 79 games, David Backes had 27 goals and 57 points in 74 games, Jaden Schwartz broke out with 25 goals and 56 points n 80 games and Vladimir Tarasenko emerged with 21 goals and 43 points in 64 games.  The numbers for these five don't look too bad, but not having a forward in the top 50 in pool scoring suggests that the Blues lacked that pop that really put fear into the opposition, while they were skating in the offensive zone.

The blueline, on the other hand, boasted three of the top 50 defensemen in pool scoring.  Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Jay Bouwmeester were real bright spots for the team, finishing 8th, 14th and 33rd, respectively, in scoring.  Pietrangelo leading the way with 51 points in 81 games, followed by Shattenkirk with 45 in 81 and Bouwmeester had 37 in all 82 games.  All three will be hot commodities next season.

The goaltending situation in St. Louis was a hot topic at the trade deadline, which kind of blew up in the faces of Blues management when it came down to crunch time.  The team was already working with one of the league's best tandems in Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak, before Ryan Miller's name came into the conversation.  Sure enough, management decided that Miller would be a bonafide upgrade, dealing for the US Olympian, trading away Halak in the process.  Well, the team's record after the trade deadline was far worse than before the deadline and the first round exit from the playoffs was the cherry on top.  Miller finished the season with 54 points in pool scoring, 20th best among goalies, in his time split between the Sabres and Blues.  Only 22 points came from the Blues, 10 wins and a shutout, in 19 appearances.  In contrast, Elliott appeared in 31 games and finished with 47 points.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Blues are going to be a popular team at the hockey pool draft and rightly so.  As much as they didn't feature a marquee player in the 2014 season, I would be putting an asterisk beside Brian Elliott's name, as he has already been deemed the starting goalie for 2015 and his numbers are pretty good in St. Louis.  The split in goaltending duties over the past couple seasons has been rough on Blues goalies, picking them in the pools, but now that they have a number one and a back-up (Jake Allen) already named, things might be a little different.  I would also stay focused on the blueline for St. Louis, as they'll remain an intact unit.

As for youth, giving Allen the back-up job should mean that he'll get some playing time, finally, with the Blues and he is poised to be an eventual starter in the NHL.  He may not be a huge point-getter in 2015, assuming Elliott stays healthy, but he is one to keep your eye on next season.  Forward Ty Rattie played in two regular season games for the Blues near the end of the year, but was held pointless.  Rattie has some real offensive upside to his game and that little taste of NHL action should help his cause.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency has the potential to clean out quite a bit of veterans, if management chooses not to bring them back, as Ryan Miller, Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow, Steve Ott and Carlo Colaiacovo are all slated to become free agents on July 1st.  Miller is expected to hit the open market, while the clock continues to count down for the other four.

As for the restricted free agents, there is some work to be done with the forwards, as Jaden Schwartz is off his entry-level deal, while Vladimir Sobotka and Patrik Berglund require new deals for the 2015 season.  I would imagine the team will try and bridge Schwartz to his long-term deal down the road, while Sobotka and Berglund may negotiate for some longer-term deals.

The Blues, by my count, already have their blueline full and their crease ready to rock and with seven forwards also on the books, their annual cap hit should be about $47.2 million for 16 players.  Against the projected ceiling, that should leave the team with $23.9 million in cap space for seven more roster spots.  St. Louis appears to be financially sound for a big 2015 season.

The Blues potentially would have shipped their 1st round draft pick this year to the Buffalo Sabres, if they made the Western Conference Finals with Ryan Miller, re-signed the veteran goaltender or even dealt him before the draft.  None of those three things happened, so the Blues will go ahead with their pick in the 21st overall spot.  The Blues haven't picked much in the 1st round over the past few years, the last time was in 2012, when they took defenseman Jordan Schmaltz, who is playing in the NCAA.  I would see the Blues trying to just upgrade their forward corps, as they are running with most of their homegrown talent already in their line-up.  The possibility of some dynamic scoring in Swiss centre Kevin Fiala may be rather intriguing for the Blues.  More help down the middle and might be a home run, even at 5'11".

There is a lot to like from a hockey pool perspective with the St. Louis Blues, especially since they spread their offense around quite well.  Sure, they don't have that dominating scorer, but when you spread this offense out, they do become harder to defend.  At the same time, without that lights out talent, they can find themselves with a power outage and the odds are a bit greater that nothing happens on the scoresheet.  It's a delicate balance, but the Blues do pull it off quite well.

I fully expect the Blues to be active in the marketplace this Summer and I expect them to pull out some pretty good talent, since this franchise looks like one of the more promising teams to play for going forward.  If the team can find themselves a player with a better playoff pedigree to lead this squad of youngsters, they could really push for Cup contention in the year.  I like St. Louis' chances at a Central Division title in the regular season next year and on the shoulders of a regular number one, who should play all year for the team, they could be confident enough to make that push into the West Finals or even further.  I think the best year for the Blues is right in front of us.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Pool Outlook for San Jose

The 2014 edition of the San Jose Sharks was not unlike some versions that we have seen in previous years and to most, it doesn't come as a big surprise.

The Sharks in the regular season were quite good.  Poolies were reaping the benefits of some more quality play from the marquee players on the team, as scoring was reasonable, the team was winning and they were able to introduce another scoring winger for the future.  It was really a page out of previous seasons in the Shark Tank.

Chapter Two in the Sharks usual season is the eventual collapse in the playoffs and boy howdy, did they ever drop the ball on that one.  The Sharks went into the playoffs as the number two seed in the Pacific Division and that gave them the unfortunate pleasure of drawing against the Los Angeles Kings, which going in, was going to be a great match-up, on paper.  The first three games of the series was all Sharks, outscoring the Kings, 17-8, and had that 3-0 series lead.  Well, that's when it all fell apart (again!) and the Sharks came away disappointed.  The Kings turned everything around, outscored the Sharks, 18-5, and completed one of the most improbable playoff comebacks in NHL history, eliminating the Sharks and leaving their poolies out in the cold.

It's hard being a poolie and believing in the San Jose Sharks.  Good regular seasons don't mean good playoffs and bad playoff outings have hardly meant that their regular seasons turn sour.  Just when you think one is going to dictate the other, you're either going to get stumped or miss out.

With the number of seasons that this has gone on for, you would think that the franchise would look to a fresh look at how business is conducted on the ice.  Not this Summer, however.  The San Jose Sharks are going to stick with GM Doug Wilson and head coach Todd McLellan for another year, but there is somewhat of an expectation that the roster could get a bit of a shake up.

For the purposes of the Pool Outlook, I only really worry about the regular season, which will be glowing review of the San Jose Sharks season, from a poolie perspective.

Despite his own playoff collapse, goaltender Antti Niemi had a whale of a regular season, as he has in previous years. Niemi won 39 games, 4 by shutout and added a couple of assists for 88 points, good enough for 4th overall in pool scoring, 3rd among goalies.  Niemi has been a rock in the hockey pool rankings over the last four seasons, not falling out of the top 20 overall, as his lowest ranking was 17th in the 2012 season.  If the Sharks are to keep a good portion of the core together, Niemi should be back there again as a safe 1st round pick again.

The only thing keeping Alex Stalock out of the conversation of pool worthy goalies may be the lack of minutes he gets to play, as his numbers were quite good.  Stalock finished with 28 points in 1,251 minutes played, which worked out to be about 1.3 points-per-60 minutes played.  Stalock finished 43rd among goalies in the league in pool points.

Up front, it was an impressive season from the team's big three, as Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau all finished in the top 20 forwards in scoring, all three in the 70+ range in points.  Of course, these three could all hit a point-per-game, if they were really on top of their game, but it turned out to be a better spread of the offense in the regular season.  Pavelski finished 9th with 79 points, Thornton was 13th with 76 and Marleau was 15th with 70 points.  Logan Couture also made an impact in the year, picking up 54 points in 65 games and Brent Burns, who converted to a forward from a defenseman for the year, scored 22 goals and added 26 assists in 69 games.

On the blueline, Dan Boyle and Jason Demers led the team with 36 & 34 points, respectively, finishing 34th and 37th in defenseman scoring in the year.  Boyle's season may have been considered a down year, while Demers is still trying to find some consistent offense in his game.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Matt Irwin also finished in the top 100 for the position, picking up 24 & 19 points of their own.

2015 Pool Outlook

From what we know already about the 2015 season, I think we could confidently say that there is going to be some new dynamics to this squad, but with the same coaching style, it may just be some re-tooling in the roster that dictates those changes.  With Dan Boyle already out of the picture, dealt to the Islanders before the end of the playoffs, the team will be looking to find a new power play quarterback, while the team floats in rumours that one of the big three forwards could find their way out of the picture as well.  It's hard to say whether or not this re-tooling will change how the Sharks perform in the regular season, but you have to know that they are going to try and make a change of how they play in the playoffs.

He didn't get a mention in the earlier parts of the post, but Tomas Hertl deserves at least one mention and being the young player that he is, here is as good of place as any.  Hertl's rookie season was hit by speed bump of a serious knee injury after getting off to a torrid start.  The 20-year old Czech forward finished with 15 goals in 37 games.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Not long after announcing that the Sharks would not be re-signing Dan Boyle, they managed to trade his rights for a conditional mid-round pick, so he would have been one of the scratches through unrestricted free agency regardless.  Scott Hannan and Mike Brown are the other two notable UFA's heading to market in July, barring a change of heart from management.

In terms of notable restricted free agents on their list, that would include goaltender Alex Stalock, forward Tommy Wingels and defenseman Jason Demers, all in need of new deals.  All three will looking for something long-term, as they are on the verge of unrestricted free agency, all being 26 years old.

The Sharks are supposed to be swimming through the trade market, looking for meaty morsels to latch on to with a deal or two.  Currently, I have San Jose locked in with 16 players (10 forwards, five defensemen and Niemi in net) at a rate of $58.9 million.  That would leave roughly $14.2 million for the remaining seven roster spots, but if the team can move Thornton or Martin Havlat, they would be playing with some significant cap hits.  Any big ticket cap trades would likely have to be fairly equal in cap space coming in to cap space going out.

The Sharks, in my estimation, don't have a great deal in their system to really boast about these days.  San Jose appears like they are in need of some more defensive help, as they only have a few prospects signed on for the coming season and some of their unsigned talent has been around for a while and haven't broken through, which doesn't bode well for the side.  Last year, they used their 1st round pick for defenseman Mirco Mueller and this year, I could see them taking 6'3", 190-pound defenseman Jack Glover.  Glover's scouting report is showing that he is a big, mobile defenseman, but he may be a bit of project, like a few of the other prospects in their time.  I don't think the Sharks will want to miss out on a top-ranked defenseman this year.

I could see why there would be hesitation to make drastic changes to the San Jose Sharks system, because they are only a piece or two away from getting the job done, in theory.  The Sharks may be a great example of how difficult it is to not only find talent that is compatible with your star players, but how lucky you have to get when you take a chance on certain veterans.  There are elements to every player's game that makes them unique and finding that correct chemistry for not only goals and assists, but clutch scoring for wins or coming back from deficits, is difficult to find.  The Sharks have been so close and they have some talent that is hard to find or very difficult to replace, so I will level with ownership for not changing on a whim this Summer.

But what does change this Summer has a huge impact on what direction that the Sharks go in during the 2015 regular season.  If it is Thornton, Marleau and/or Havlat that finds himself in a trade, each one of those guys are going to affect the team more than the other in their own category.  With that being said, a prediction for the 2015 season is going to be very difficult and may end up very vague.  The team has already moved Boyle and he'll need to be replaced, so in that they have already moved a big piece without any immediate successor, so that makes things even more difficult.  At the rate the team is going, as of before the Draft, I would say that the Sharks will be dropping their way into the Wild Card race, instead of staying in the Pacific Division race.  This could very well open the door for the Coyotes or the Canucks to make a push back up into the top three in the division.

Let's Play One More


The Los Angeles Kings had the chance to be the first team to sweep another in the Stanley Cup Finals in 16 years, but their effort fell short, failing to close out the New York Rangers at Madison Square Gardens on Wednesday night.  The 2-1 regulation loss means that the two teams will head back to Los Angeles to play Game Five on Friday night.

The Rangers found a little bit of that puck luck that they were missing in Game Three, as they were able to receive a few kind bounces and fortunate circumstances, aiding their attempt to stay alive in these playoffs.

Benoit Pouliot opened the scoring for New York in the 1st period, getting his stick on a John Moore point shot, deflecting it past Jonathan Quick.  Martin St. Louis shoveled in a loose rebound after an odd-man rush into the Los Angeles zone put a shot in on the Kings keeper, one Quick couldn't quite handle, making the game 2-0 for the home side.

In this series, the Rangers were 0-2 when going up by a couple of goals, so there had to be some nervous nellies in the building.  Only a couple minutes after St. Louis put the Rangers up by a pair, Dustin Brown broke away on a turnover and made a nice move to get the Kings on the board, cutting the lead in half.

That would be the closest the Kings would get on the scoreboard, despite getting the puck to the goal line in the 3rd period.  Los Angeles managed to direct 41 shots at Henrik Lundqvist, not to mention the 20 shot attempts that were blocked by other Rangers on the ice.  You can't fault the Kings' effort on Wednesday night, but it just wasn't to be.

ImplicationsThe Lundqvist win and the St. Louis winning goal helped propel Travis G. into a 4-point lead in the pool, as he could now be considered to be running away with the lead after Game Four. Corey M. did get points from Moore and Brassard, but it wasn't enough to keep pace with the leader.

Travis finished the night with 263 points, followed by Corey & Gus M.'s first team with 259 and then Gus' second team with 256.  Wes still sits on the outside with 253 points and Dale B. fell further behind at 251.

Gus' second team leads the final round of the playoffs with 20 points now, thanks to St. Louis, Zuccarello and Lundqvist on the Rangers side.


Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Pool Outlook for Tampa Bay

An opening round loss to the Montreal Canadiens capped off a season of 'what if's' for the Tampa Bay Lightning, as they couldn't find a great deal of luck to compliment the team coming together as a unit, raising a few eyebrows in the process.

An early season broken leg for Steven Stamkos cost him 45 games and a shot at a scoring title, while an Olympic omission sent Martin St. Louis packing to the Big Apple on a huge emotional rollercoaster and then their number one goalie, Ben Bishop, suffered a wrist injury, which kept him out of the playoff run, leaving a huge hole to fill in the crease.  What if Stamkos didn't get hurt?  What if St. Louis didn't throw a fit and ask to leave Tampa?  What if the Bolts had Bishop for the playoffs?  If these situations went the other way, we may have had some different results in the Eastern Conference.

On the plus side, the Lightning came away like bandits in the 2014 season, as they were able to throw in a pile of new talent onto their roster and a lot of it came up with big years.  Two out of the three Calder Trophy finalists belong to the Lightning, as Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson helped guide the way for the team, especially when all the injuries and trades happened.

There is plenty to like for the Tampa Bay Lightning going forward, as the team is establishing quite the foundation of players, starting with their big name stars, establishing young players and a giant backstop.  General Manager Steve Yzerman has done a pretty good job assembling a great support cast for Stamkos, which is beginning to look like a team that could almost function and win without their superstar player.  Of course, this past season, when Stamkos was hurt, they did have St. Louis, which certainly helped a bunch.

A late season injury prevented slightly better numbers, but Ben Bishop's season did not go unnoticed, as the hulking goaltender received a Vezina Trophy finalist nod for his 86-point season in 2014.  Bishop won 37 games with 5 shutouts and 2 assists, which was good enough for 8th overall in pool scoring, 5th among goalies.  Bishop was acquired from Ottawa late in the 2013 season for forward Cory Conacher and this deal is turning out to be heavily weighted in favour or the Lightning, who have relished in the accomplishments of Bishop in a season and a little bit.

Unfortunately for the Lightning, the goaltending department wasn't necessarily the strongest after Bishop.  Back-up goalie Anders Lindback didn't fare so well winning much less than a .500 pace, finishing with only 18 points on 8 wins with 1 shutout.  Kristers Gudlevskis and Cedrick Desjardins also made appearances, which makes the race for the back-up job in 2015 very interesting.

Up front for the Bolts, there were five players higher up in scoring at the end of the year, compared to Steven Stamkos, who had lost out on so many games.  Ondrej Palat (59 points in 81 games), Valtteri Filppula (58 points in 75 games), Tyler Johnson (50 points in 80 games), Teddy Purcell (42 points in 81 games) and Alex Killorn (41 points in 82 games) all fared better, thanks to healthy seasons, than Stamkos, who finished with 40 points in 37 games.  It wasn't necessarily a banner year in scoring, but the team is dripping in potential and we still haven't seen the likes of Jonathan Drouin on the team yet.

You know everything is really coming around for a team when your new goalie has a great year, your youth earned spots and your number one defenseman had a career year.  Victor Hedman, the team's 1st round pick in 2009, had a breakout year, scoring 13 goals and 42 assists in 75 games, ranking 5th among defensemen in pool scoring in the year.  Hedman finished 84th overall in scoring, where his previous high in scoring rankings was 234th.  That's quite the jump.  Matt Carle and Radko Gudas also finished in the top 100 in defensemen scoring, scoring 31 and 22 points, respectively in the year.

2015 Pool Outlook

With the season that the Lightning had, I think there will be a lot of people earmarking a number of Bolts for their hockey pool teams and given that some of these flashy players will be sophomores next season, it may be a little bit early to really jump on board with them right away.  Sure, Stamkos, Bishop and Hedman are all going to be sexy picks next year and you should be jumping on them as soon as possible, but if your'e looking to make a splash with Palat, Johnson, Kucherov or Killorn, you may want to be a little hesitant with them, because the jinx happens too often for it not to be considered.  I would be inclined to discount those players, maybe taking a proven player instead of those four, unless you could pick them up a little later, in a more comfortable round.

The young players to watch in the 2015 season pretty well revolves around Jonathan Drouin, who surprisingly didn't make the jump into the league last season, but instead, dominated the QMJHL for another year and got another shot at the World Juniors, which was likely some excellent experience to draw from in the future.  Drouin should be ready to make the jump, which will keep the Lightning line-up fresh with young talent and will likely help push some of the other young players into keeping away from the jinx.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency shouldn't have a great deal of impact on the final 2014 roster, as the main player being struck from the list is defenseman Sami Salo, who may or may not return to the NHL as a whole.  He heads into the Summer as a 39-year old and there likely isn't too many games left in those legs.

Restricted free agency may prove to be quite a bit of work, as the Lightning will have to negotiate new deals with forwards Alex Killorn, J.T. Brown, Richard Panik, Tom Pyatt and Brett Connolly, as well as defensemen Mark Barberio and Andrej Sustr, not to mention back-up goalie Anders Lindback.  They'll all be prioritized accordingly, but that does look like quite a bit of work to be done.

As for the team's cap number, there are some conservative assumptions on the projected roster.  Ryan Malone's drug suspension has bumped him off, while Mattias Ohlund didn't feature due to injury and Jonathan Drouin hasn't made the team... yet.  With all of that being said, I have the Lightning cap hit in at $43.8 million for 12 players (Seven forwards, four defensemen and a goalie).  This leaves $27.3 million for 11 roster spots, against a projected $71.1 million ceiling.

At the NHL Entry Draft, the Lightning will get to make two more picks in the 1st round, as their own pick will come in at the 19th selection and they also have the New York Rangers' pick, which they acquired in the deal that sent Martin St. Louis to the Big Apple.  The Rangers pick will either be 28th or 29th overall, depending if they lose or win the Cup.  For this post, we'll just worry about the 19th overall pick, as I continue to fill out my mock draft.  Last Summer, the Lightning were forwards heavy in the draft, so I could see the Lightning going after some more defensive help, using their pick for the best defenseman and using the Rangers pick for another forward.  With the 19th pick, I could see the Lightning going with Anthony DeAngelo from the Sarnia Sting of the OHL.

The Lightning are coming together at the right time and are exciting to watch on a daily basis, which will keep the market in Tampa Bay excited for years to come.  It was too bad that Tampa couldn't get everything to come together for the 2014 season, but that's the nature of professional sports and things don't quite happen like some people would prefer the script to go.  Nevertheless, if you're banking on potential and what that can mean down the line, well, then the Bolts are the team for you.

If Tampa Bay does go through a bit of that sophomore jinx phase, which strikes a number of young players in the second full year of their career, like I have a feeling might happen to a few players, the team at least has that influx of new blue chip talent coming in, not to mention their developed talent already in the line-up to keep the jinx from wreaking too much havoc throughout.  The turnover on the roster should all be looked after and the team shouldn't hit much of a speed bump in the 2015 season. I am leaning towards a slight improvement on their 101-point season in the standings, but surpassing the Boston Bruins for the Atlantic Division title may still be a year or two away.  The playoffs are all but certain, possibly having some real success in the 2015 Spring Dance.  All of these are real possibilities.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Pool Outlook for Minnesota

Back-to-back years in the playoffs, which includes a second round exit to the Chicago Blackhawks in this year's tournament, means the Minnesota Wild are coming around as a franchise on the rise.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that when a team starts to throw around some serious money, like the Wild did with both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter a couple Summers ago, there is going to be an upswing in a franchise's results.  Of course, there has to be some good management of that money, but General Manager Chuck Fletcher made a couple wise decisions, making Parise and Suter his franchise players.

There were some more keen moves for the 2014 season, as Fletcher acquired Nino Niederreiter from the New York Islanders in the off-season and then picked up Matt Moulson at the deadline from the Buffalo Sabres.  Both players came in handy down the stretch, as the Wild made their push into a Wild Card spot in the West.

The biggest surprise of the season came when the Wild were able to upset the Colorado Avalanche in the opening round of the playoffs, taking Game Seven in Denver, shocking the Central Division regular season champs.  The Wild's game plan of buckling down and keeping games close to the vest was their best play and it almost pushed the Blackhawks to a seventh game, but unfortunately, the Wild fell short of another 7-game series and ultimately, knocked out of the playoffs.

Still, the Wild are a team on the rise and with some more clever work, Minnesota could find themselves in the thick of the Central Division fight with Colorado, Chicago and St. Louis, who owned the top three spots in the division.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that Jason Pominville was the best player for the Minnesota Wild in the 2014 season, but he did come away with the most points for us poolies in the season and that gets him the big picture on the team's post.  Pominville finished the season with 30 goals and 30 assists in all 82 games, ranking 60th overall in pool scoring, 43rd among all forwards.  Over the last six seasons, Pominville has averaged a ranking of 67th in the NHL, so he stays as a model of consistency for poolies to rely on.

Both Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu both had better scoring rates in the 2014 season, thanks to 56 & 54-point seasons, respectively, but injuries got the better of the two, playing in 67 & 65 games each.  Both players helped the Wild to their end goal, which was the playoffs, but there is still some room to improve on this team, both on the scoresheet and the standings and a healthy Parise and Koivu will help.  Rental pick-up Matt Moulson finished the year with 51 points in 73 games, while Mikael Granlund scored 41 points in 63 games and Nino Niederreiter had 36 points in 81 games to round out the top forwards for the team.

On the blueline, the team was led by one of their franchise players, as Ryan Suter finished with 43 points in all 82 games, which was somewhat down from his 2013 season, as he finished 157th overall in pool scoring, only 19th among all defensemen.  Jared Spurgeon (26 points in 67 games) and Jonas Brodin (19 points in 79 games) were the only other two defensemen in the top 100, so you could surmise that the Wild didn't quite get enough from the back end, but that doesn't take away from the overall potential of the group.

Goaltending was a contentious issue for the Wild in the 2014 season, as Niklas Backstrom lost his number one job in the early part of the season, as Josh Harding got off to a torrid start, swiping the job away.  Unfortunately, Harding's treatments for his Multiple Sclerosis got the best of him, as he dropped out of the crease for long stretches and Backstrom suffered injuries of his own, which left the crease to Darcy Kuemper and another trade deadline pick-up in Ilya Bryzgalov.   All four goalies were able to play in over 1,000 minutes in the crease, Bryzgalov doing so between Edmonton and Minnesota, but it was Harding who led the way in points, finishing with 42, thanks to 18 wins and 3 shutouts.

2015 Pool Outlook

Is anyone going to be in a rush to pick up any Minnesota Wild players in the 2015 hockey pool draft?  No, probably not, but that isn't to say that the Wild are not going to be a solid team to choose from.  Parise, Koivu, Suter and Granlund are all going to be picked in good time, while Niederreiter, Spurgeon and Brodin will compliment some rosters with some reasonable depth scoring.  The only real question mark will be the goaltending.  I don't anyone will outright say that they'll avoid the Wild goaltending, it may just be a matter of consequence, as Harding's health is a serious concern and Backstrom's ability to bounce back from a rough year will fuel some doubters.

The only other signed goaltender on the Minnesota Wild roster is Johan Gustafsson, who may find some time in net by default for the team in 2015.  It is a bit of a long shot at this time, especially since there is so much time between the playoffs and the next regular season, but I think it would be silly not to acknowledge this idea.  The Wild will also give another long look to Matthew Dumba on the blueline, who was sent back to junior after 13 games last season.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency will clear out some consistent under-performers for the Wild, as Dany Heatley and Zenon Konopka will likely be let go to the open market, leaving some space for possibly retaining rental players Matt Moulson or Ilya Bryzgalov.

Management will have a bit of work to do, as goaltender Darcy Kuemper, forwards Nino Niederreiter, Justin Fontaine and Jason Zucker will all need new deals as restricted free agents.  I would expect all four to get some reasonable deals to stay with the team, as they all provided the team with good depth and some timely contributions in 2014.

The Wild are one of those teams that ride that fine line between a budget team and a spending team.  When a team throws over $7 million a year to two players, it's hard to call them a budget team, exactly, but since they have 15 players on their projected roster today, coming in at a reasonable $46.9 million, they may not be in for spending all of the remaining $24.2 million.  Minnesota will be in the mix for re-signing Moulson, which may cost them a pretty penny, especially if he makes it to July 1st, but I can't see them being a ceiling team in October.

The Wild moved their 1st round pick last Spring to get Jason Pominville, but this time around, they will go ahead and pick from the 18th spot in the Entry Draft.  I would think the Wild would be looking at just making a solid pick, as they have run themselves somewhat dry in the prospect department, especially among those who have a contract for next season.  Finding a centre in the league is a difficult feat and the Wild may find themselves in a good spot to pick Jared McCann, who played for Sault Saint Marie in the OHL.  McCann ranks well among scouts, deemed a solid two-way centre, something you can't have too many of in a franchise.

It is kind of hard to say, exactly, where it went wrong for the Wild in the playoffs this year or maybe to ask who could have been better, as the team fell behind in games on the road and found it hard to recover on some nights.  The Wild were good in their own building, keeping the opposition to a limited amount of shots and relied less on their goaltending in key points in the games.  They are still a relatively new group playing together, but with two playoff years under their belt, you would have to imagine that they are coming together as a whole and that has to be exciting for Wild fans.

No matter how good their team defense is going to be in the 2015 season, I get the feeling that the uncertainty in the crease will be the tipping point on where the Wild finish in the standings.  If Josh Harding can get his affliction under control or have Niklas Backstrom return to a form we saw in 2009, then that worry goes out the window and the Wild are now back in the conversation for the Central Division title, let alone a Wild Card spot.  The Wild will be a player in the off-season and that will play a role to where they finish in the year, but it won't be the end all.  I like the Wild to be in the race in 2015, but with the constant improvement of teams below them in the standings, they need all the chips to fall in the right places for a shot.

McEnroe's Boys Down 3-0

You can't say that the New York Rangers haven't had their chances in these Stanley Cup Finals, but through perseverance, the Los Angeles Kings have not only done away with the chances that the Rangers had, they have put together dominating results and after Monday night's game in New York, the Kings now have a 3-0 series lead.

Monday night's chances stemmed from returning back to home-ice, after a tough pair of games on the West Coast.  A tight 1st period, which included a late Rangers power play, didn't garner much for offensive opportunity.  It wasn't until the last few ticks of the clock until Jeff Carter broke in the Rangers zone and snapped a quick wrist shot, taking a slight deflection off a defender down to block the shot and past Henrik Lundqvist with less than a tick left on the clock.  Goals in the first minute or the last minute of the period, right?

The 2nd period had a lot of Rangers pressure on the Kings net, but it was the Kings who had the last laughs.  The Rangers outshot the Kings, 17-8, in the middle frame, as Jonathan Quick stood tall, while Jake Muzzin capitalized on a power play to make it 2-0 and Mike Richards made the most of some puck luck on a 2-on-1 for a 3-0 lead.

The 3rd period was all about the desperation of the Rangers, as they didn't want to fall down 3-0 in the series, but Quick did his best to stonewall those hopes and dreams.  The Kings keeper made another 11 stops in the final frame, but New York could not break through and the final buzzer went with a 3-0 Los Angeles final, forcing a 3-0 series lead at the same time.

Quick was by far the player of the game, making 32 saves for the shutout and picking up the 4 points.  Jeff Carter got his first bonus point of the playoffs, acting as the only other notable player in the pool.

ImplicationsWell, the shutout for Quick and the lack of overall scoring in Game Three changed the face of the money places for the hockey pool, as Travis G. was able to jump up into a 2-point lead on Corey M. and Gus M.'s first team.

Travis leads the pool with 259 points, followed by Corey & Gus at 257 points, while Gus' second team jumped back into the money, over top of Wes M., with 252 points to 251.  Dale B. and John M. are also nice and close, both teams with 250 points to tail off the contending teams.

The big win for the Kings meant that John M. usurped the lead in the series, as his team now has 18 points to lead the pool in the Finals.  Both of Gus' teams rank 2nd and 3rd, with 16 & 15 points, thanks in large part to the shutout.

 photo newyork.gifGame Four of the series will go on Wednesday night, again at Madison Square Gardens and the Rangers are now heavily behind the 8-ball.

The task that his ahead of the Broadway Blueshirts is something not unlike what the Kings had to do to the Sharks in the opening round of the playoffs... no wait, it is exactly that scenario.  Sure, the Kings pulled off the complete 4-game comeback from being down 3-0 in their series, but for how rare that feat is, it remains highly improbable that the Rangers will be able to turn the tides in this series.

To the Rangers credit, they haven't played badly in this series, but small mistakes have added up and the bounces just haven't been going their way, which has to be draining on the morale of the team.  It is time for the entire book of hockey cliches to make its way into the Rangers dressing room, but they will need a lot more than a few quotes and quips to beat Jonathan Quick and the Kings.

Monday, June 09, 2014

Pool Outlook for Philadelphia

At the beginning of the 2014 season, there was a lot of uncertainty about what the Philadelphia Flyers season would bring, in terms of wins.  Sure, the Flyers had plenty of firepower on paper, but there were plenty of questions about their new goaltending and how the defense would stack up.  Those question marks became even bigger, when the offense wasn't there to start the season and the team couldn't stack up any wins, which cost Peter Laviolette his job with the team, only three games into the season.

The Flyers were able to turn things around under the direction of new head coach Craig Berube, as the forwards started to score, the defense stabilized and they found a new number one goalie in Steve Mason.  It worked out to be a pretty long season, but nevertheless, they were able to make it to the playoffs, despite making a first round exit to the New York Rangers, who are currently in the Stanley Cup Finals, as this post gets published.

The Flyers, as an organization, also made some changes in the off-season, as Paul Holmgren stepped down as General Manager, taking a position further up in the organization, leaving the GM duties to former goalie for the team, Ron Hextall.  Hextall has seen some management experience already in the NHL and he will be relied upon to build upon a decent core group of players, adding a piece here and there and then getting them back to the glory days of making it deep into the playoffs.

The new era starts at the NHL Entry Draft at the end of the month and it will be interesting to see if Hextall starts a youth movement in the organization or stays with the current model of bringing in as much talent from other teams, as they grow within their own system.  There will be a little bit of pressure this year, as the Flyers are hosting the Draft in their building this year, so all eyes will be on the team, possibly hoping for a big splash.

One thing the team doesn't need to worry about at the moment is finding a good leader for the team, as Claude Giroux has taken to that spot quite well over the past couple seasons, leading by example on the scoresheet, no matter how slow he was out of the gate in 2014.  It took until his 6th game of the season before he registered a point and it wasn't until Game 16 before he even scored a goal for the Flyers, but once he got on the board, he was virtually unstoppable.  The 26-year old finished the year with 28 goals and 58 assists in all 82 games, finishing 7th overall in pool scoring and 3rd among all forwards, which helped him to a Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award nod.

Jakub Voracek didn't quite have the repeat performance of his dynamite 2013 season, but the 24-year old Czech didn't fare too badly, picking up 23 goals and 39 assists in all 82 games for the Flyers, making a formidable 1-2 punch with Giroux during the year.  Wayne Simmonds also chipped in with a pretty good year, leading the team with 29 goals and then adding 31 assists in all 82 games.  The Flyers also had 20-goal seasons out of Scott Hartnell, Brayden Schenn and Vincent Lecavalier up front.

On the blueline, the team was led by Swiss puck-mover, Mark Streit, who scored 10 goals and 34 assists in all 82 games for the team.  Streit was aided by Kimmo Timonen, who finished with 6 goals and 29 assists in 77 games and then at the deadline, the team acquired Andrew MacDonald to help out.  MacDonald finished the season with 4 goals and 24 assists in 82 games between Long Island and Philadelphia.  All three defenders were in the top 100 for defensemen scoring during the regular season and will likely be good options next season.

Late in the 2013 season, the Flyers were somewhat ridiculed when they took a chance on former Columbus standout Steve Mason, who lost his job to former Flyers goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky.  Mason went 4-2 in seven appearances for the Flyers before the end of the year and the team saw enough in him to give him the reins for the 2014 season.  Mason didn't disappoint.  In 61 appearances, Mason finished with 33 wins, 4 shutouts and an assist for 75 points, making him 22nd overall in pool points, 9th among goalies.  He was definitely solid again.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Philadelphia Flyers have too much in place to not be a good team in the 2015 season.  Their forwards are coming around as dominating forces, the defense has some stability through some possible losses in free agency and they now have a goaltender that has some confidence going forward.  I would say that the Flyers should be a team that you should be looking at, come hockey pool time, because they will have all that talent coming back and the only thing you may have to worry about is another early season slump... at worst.

The Flyers have never been in too much of a rush to move their youngsters forward, unless they show an excess of poise and talent, namely like Sean Couturier.  It will be interesting to see if a kid like Scott Laughton makes the jump this year, as the 20-year old has likely seen his last days in junior and after a solid effort in the OHL and with Team Canada the World Juniors, he might be ready to make that leap.  On the blueline, there may be just enough space to see a kid like Shayne Gostisbehere make the jump, possibly as the number seven guy on the depth chart.  He comes with a little bit of fan fare and could be an impact player down the line.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Kimmo Timonen and Ray Emery head the list of possible unrestricted free agents to come out of Philadelphia, as the two veterans are without deals at the moment.  Steve Downie, Adam Hall, Hal Gill and Bruno Gervais will also get some consideration, before hitting the open market.

There is some work to be done on the restricted side of the ledger as well, as Brayden Schenn leads the list of players in need of a new deal and he will be the biggest priority in the Summer.  Defenseman Erik Gustafsson will also need a new deal and will be up for something a little more substantial, if he is to stay with the club.

How much space does the Flyers have to work with this Summer?  Well, if you're not counting Chris Pronger against their cap space, nor should you, since he's going right back to the LTIR, I have the Flyers with $11.2 million for five roster spots being open.  I have the current projection at 10 forwards, five defensemen and Mason in net for $59.9 million, against the projected $71.1 million cap ceiling.

The Flyers, picking at home, will have the 17th overall selection and this will be Ron Hextall's first pick as General Manager of the club... will it be a goalie?  No, I don't think so.  The Flyers may not be deep in goaltending, but they have never been a team to spend time or a quality draft pick on a keeper.  I could see Hextall go back to the roots of the Broad Street Bullies a little more and select a potential power forward in Alex Tuch.  Tuch is already listed at 6'3" and 215 pounds, a body that could likely carry others to the front of the net.  Having more of a presence in front of the opposition net has to put a smile on the coaching staff's faces.

I honestly thought that the Flyers would do more to surprise people in the playoffs this time around, especially with a revitalized Mason in net.  Unfortunately, Mason was also dealing with an injury, which hampered a very confident season, so the dream ended quite quickly.  There is little doubt in my mind that this team can build on the comeback success that they saw in 2014 and apply that to the 2015 campaign.

With that being said, the Flyers, who finished 3rd in the Metropolitan Division in 2014, should improve on those numbers, thanks to an unlikely drop in points at the beginning of the season... like they did in 2014.  I would imagine that lessons were learned, capabilities of some are now known and new management will pump some new blood into this team.  I see the Flyers contending for the Division title in 2015 and then make a stronger push into the playoffs.  Philadelphia is still a move or two away from being a true Cup contender in 2015, but I wouldn't say that that move or those moves are out of the question.

Bolts Re-Sign Palat

The Tampa Bay Lightning have wasted no time in locking up one of their key young players for the future, as they have re-signed 23-year old Czech forward Ondrej Palat to a new 3-year deal, reportedly worth $10 million.

Thanks to injuries and trading players away at the deadline, Palat finished atop the forwards in scoring for the Lightning, finishing the year with 23 goals and 36 assists in 81 games, ranking 66th overall in pool scoring, 49th among all forwards.  Palat joined teammate Tyler Johnson and Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon as finalists for the Calder Trophy for rookie of the year.

Palat was due to be a restricted free agent this Summer, coming out of his entry-level deal.  His new deal will go until he is 26 years old, bridging the gap between the entry-level deal and his long-term deal before or around unrestricted free agency.  This should prove to be a solid move by Lightning management.

Sunday, June 08, 2014

Pool Outlook for Columbus

I'm not sure there is an NHL team that relies on their number one goaltender, like the Columbus Blue Jackets.  On the plus side, they have a goaltender that can carry them into the playoffs and they certainly gave the Pittsburgh Penguins a good run in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The 2014 Blue Jackets brought back a lot of memories of the 1999 Buffalo Sabres, that rode Dominik Hasek all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, with the addition of a hard-working team.  Columbus, to their credit, play a very blue collar game and they have got a few of their young players to buy into the system and it nearly worked for them this year.

The Jackets are not exactly what you'd call a sexy team, when it comes to hockey pools, as very few of their players jump out as solid selections that you could count on, but they are definitely working hard to change that perspective for us poolies.  I wouldn't say that I am getting overly excited to slip a Blue Jacket in here or there on my list, but I will definitely consider them to be a good depth move, at the right spot in the draft.

Sergei Bobrovsky made 58 starts for the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2014 season, winning 32 games, 5 by shutout and he added an assist for a 75-point season.  That's a great way to follow up a Vezina Trophy season, if you ask me.  The 25-year old Russian keeper took a little while to get his NHL legs underneath him, but thanks to a solid opportunity from the Jackets, Bobrovsky has given himself a reputation of being a solid netminder and one we can look at in the 1st round of the hockey pool draft.  Bobrovsky finished 23rd overall in pool scoring, 10th among goalies, but until the team gets a little more consistent around him, he probably won't jump up to the upper echelon of goalies.

Depth at the goaltending position does drop off a little, but Curtis McElhinney did provide a reasonable alternative as a back-up goalie in 2014, winning 10 games out of his 21 starts and he did make seven relief appearances as well in the year.

Up front, it was a coming out party, of sorts, for Ryan Johansen, their 2010 1st round pick (4th overall), as he scored 33 goals and 30 assists in all 82 games, finishing 49th overall in pool scoring.  Johansen was projected to have some real offensive upside, but his journey to the NHL was a bit longer than some expected, spending quite a bit of time in the AHL, maturing his game.  Johansen was aided well by guys like Brandon Dubinsky (50 points in 76 games), Cam Atkinson (40 points in 79 games), Artem Anisimov (39 points in 81 games) and Nick Foligno (39 points in 70 games).  The Jackets didn't blow the doors off many games, but they did enough to compliment their goaltending in the back for wins.

On the blueline, it is somewhat of an underrated crew, led by James Wisniewski, who had a pretty good year, finishing 9th in defenseman scoring with 7 goals and 44 assists in 75 games.  Jack Johnson (33 points in 82 games), Fedor Tyutin (26 points in 69 games) and rookie Ryan Murray (21 points in 66 games) rounded out a core group that remained fairly steady throughout the year.  I'm sure these guys will find some homes in the 2015 season, among poolies, and they'll quietly go about with their business.

2015 Pool Outlook

Well, in part, I've pretty much covered the outlook for taking Blue Jackets in the pool for next year in their review.  Bobrovsky is going to be a coveted player in the 1st round, you'll see some forwards sprinkled throughout the draft and the defensemen will likely be steady additions to any team.  At first glance at their projected roster, there doesn't appear to be a lot of change to the overall scope of the team, as I fully expect the management team to take care of some outstanding free agents and then the core of the team returns.  There may be a level of expectation that some of their younger players, like Boone Jenner and Matt Calvert make a bigger jump, but that could be tempered with how much ice-time they earn.

There are a few names on their prospect list that raise an eyebrow or two, including all three 1st round picks from last Summer... Alexander Wennberg (14th), Kerby Rychel (19th) and Marko Dano (27th).  Out of the three, the one that pops to the forefront is Rychel, who was a Memorial Cup finalist with the Guelph Storm, as he showed some NHL-pedigree in his game in the tournament and the entire OHL season.  2012 2nd round pick, goalie Oscar Dansk, has some potential, but it could be a bit early to give him that job.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency will touch on some depth players for the Blue Jackets this Summer, as they will ride the balance of being a good role player, more than they actually score.  Derek MacKenzie, Blake Comeau and Jack Skille, up front, while Nikita Nikitin and Nick Schultz will go from the blueline.  Career back-up goalies Curtis McElhinney and Mike McKenna will also make for some interesting conversation.

The more important signings will be the restricted free agents, as this team grows as a collective.  Ryan Johansen leads the way and will likely get a reasonable raise in what should be a bridge deal, but looking long-term wouldn't be out of the picture.  Corey Tropp and Matt Frattin will get long talks up front, with David Savard, Dalton Prout and Cody Goloubef negotiating a thin blueline corps.

From what I've gathered in this review, I have the Jackets in with 15 signed players, 10 forwards, four defensemen and a goalie, coming in at $48.3 million, leaving about $22.8 million left to spend.  The big money will be going into Johansen and then re-assessing their depth players, trying for that key upgrade to help them along.

I can see the Columbus Blue Jackets going after another defenseman at this point in the draft, trying to help solidify a thin blueline.  The name that pops up as a good fit and still being available in my mock draft style reviews is Finnish defender Julius Honka.  Although he is diminutive in size, his offensive upside is supposed to rank quite high among those in his draft class and has had some solid comparisons to some of the NHL best.  It may take an extra little while for a kid of that size to be comfortable in the NHL, but if they can have a complimentary offensive force to a kid like Ryan Murray, they could have a formidable 1-2 punch in 3-to-4 years.

The Columbus Blue Jackets will continue to be a bubble team, but making the playoffs with the core group of players that they have is a sign that they may find some consistency on the bubble.  There are a few teams that have been on the bubble, either in or out, and have seen some success.  As they say these days, all you have to do is make the playoffs to have a chance at the Stanley Cup and in some cases, that's exactly what it is.

I'm not going to go out of my way to predict that the Blue Jackets will make any astronomical improvements in their team or their game, but not making the playoffs next year wouldn't be the end of the world for the team.  This team, at its core, is still really young and could use the adversity to grow as a team.  The Blue Jackets will make some savvy moves in the off-season, they'll fill some gaps and they'll compete again in the Eastern Conference.  Will they make the playoffs next year?  I might lean to no, just because there are some teams that will improve a little bit more, but it will be awfully close... all things being equal.

Kings Capitalize in Double Overtime

You had to know that the game plan for the New York Rangers was to get that lead and then not let it slip. Of course, getting that lead against the Los Angeles Kings, let alone holding onto it, was going to be a struggle in Game Two, but that's why these teams are in these Stanley Cup Finals... because they want that struggle.

It was another slow start for the Kings on Saturday night, giving the Rangers that opportunity they wanted to level this series.  The Rangers made the most of the 1st period, outshooting the Kings, 10-9, and more importantly, outscoring them, 2-0.  Where have we seen this story before?

Sure, the Kings had one back before the end of the opening period in Game One, but scoring within the first two minutes of the 2nd period would have to work, as Jarret Stoll got the Kings back in the game.  The middle frame was somewhat of a wash, however, as the Rangers again outshot the Kings, 12-11, but the scoreline was more level, as they drew the frame, 2-2, and the Rangers went into the 3rd period with a 4-2 lead.

Did someone mention that the Kings are a 3rd period team in these playoffs?  Facing a split with the Rangers, before they head to New York for Game Three, the Kings did what they do best and that is stay resilient.

Before the 8-minute mark of the 3rd, the Kings found a way to tie up the game at 4-4, thanks to Dwight King and Marian Gaborik goals.  Surprisingly, after the Kings tied the game up, they were not able to find any immediate momentum into a win, as both teams locked down into 'don't lose the game' mode and it was a pretty tight game into overtime.

Overtime was a tight period, as neither team gave up much for chances, although eyebrows were raised on a couple of chances on either side, but shots were only 8-6 for the Rangers and there was no decision in the extra frame, which meant we had to sit through another intermission and into a 2nd overtime period.

In the 2nd overtime period, it was the momentum push we were all expecting from the Los Angeles Kings after the 4-4 goal, as they brought the pressure against the Rangers and they were rewarded for their hard work, as Dustin Brown expertly deflected a Willie Mitchell point shot past Henrik Lundqivst and the Kings were able to take full advantage of home-ice, taking Game Two with a 5-4 double overtime win, now leading the series 2-0.

We won't have to wait long for Game Three, as Sunday is a travel day, heading to the East Coast for a Monday night face-off at Madison Square Gardens.

Justin Williams was the points leader in Game Two, as he finished the game with 3 assists.  Williams already has 6 points in these Cup Finals, through two games, absolutely living up to whatever nickname the CBC broadcasters want to give him.  Also having a notable game in the hockey pool for the Kings were Jonathan Quick, Dustin Brown and Dwight King, as they each came away with 2 points each.  For the Rangers, there was Derrick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello and Ryan McDonagh, each picking up a goal and an assist in the loss.

ImplicationsThere was a shift in the money positions in the standings, as Corey M. took back that point he lost in the audit, taking the lead, by virtue of the tie-breaker, over Travis G..  Both teams finished Game Two with 252 points, but Corey has a 2-goal advantage in the tie-break.

Gus M.'s first team picked up a couple extra points and moved past Wes M.'s team for 3rd place, as they sit with 250 & 249 points, respectively.  Neither of these two are out of the conversation for the big money either.

Gus' second team and Dale B.'s team are both sitting with 245 points and both have the maximum number of players, trying to stay within striking range.  Dale leads the top six teams with 10 points in the Finals, but he'll need a big push in these next two games to make up those missing 4 points.

Burc B. still sits atop of the Cup Finals standings with 12 points through two games, but his team continues to sit in 13th place, not moving at all from the end of Game One.