Pool Outlook for San Jose

The 2014 edition of the San Jose Sharks was not unlike some versions that we have seen in previous years and to most, it doesn't come as a big surprise.

The Sharks in the regular season were quite good.  Poolies were reaping the benefits of some more quality play from the marquee players on the team, as scoring was reasonable, the team was winning and they were able to introduce another scoring winger for the future.  It was really a page out of previous seasons in the Shark Tank.

Chapter Two in the Sharks usual season is the eventual collapse in the playoffs and boy howdy, did they ever drop the ball on that one.  The Sharks went into the playoffs as the number two seed in the Pacific Division and that gave them the unfortunate pleasure of drawing against the Los Angeles Kings, which going in, was going to be a great match-up, on paper.  The first three games of the series was all Sharks, outscoring the Kings, 17-8, and had that 3-0 series lead.  Well, that's when it all fell apart (again!) and the Sharks came away disappointed.  The Kings turned everything around, outscored the Sharks, 18-5, and completed one of the most improbable playoff comebacks in NHL history, eliminating the Sharks and leaving their poolies out in the cold.

It's hard being a poolie and believing in the San Jose Sharks.  Good regular seasons don't mean good playoffs and bad playoff outings have hardly meant that their regular seasons turn sour.  Just when you think one is going to dictate the other, you're either going to get stumped or miss out.

With the number of seasons that this has gone on for, you would think that the franchise would look to a fresh look at how business is conducted on the ice.  Not this Summer, however.  The San Jose Sharks are going to stick with GM Doug Wilson and head coach Todd McLellan for another year, but there is somewhat of an expectation that the roster could get a bit of a shake up.

For the purposes of the Pool Outlook, I only really worry about the regular season, which will be glowing review of the San Jose Sharks season, from a poolie perspective.

Despite his own playoff collapse, goaltender Antti Niemi had a whale of a regular season, as he has in previous years. Niemi won 39 games, 4 by shutout and added a couple of assists for 88 points, good enough for 4th overall in pool scoring, 3rd among goalies.  Niemi has been a rock in the hockey pool rankings over the last four seasons, not falling out of the top 20 overall, as his lowest ranking was 17th in the 2012 season.  If the Sharks are to keep a good portion of the core together, Niemi should be back there again as a safe 1st round pick again.

The only thing keeping Alex Stalock out of the conversation of pool worthy goalies may be the lack of minutes he gets to play, as his numbers were quite good.  Stalock finished with 28 points in 1,251 minutes played, which worked out to be about 1.3 points-per-60 minutes played.  Stalock finished 43rd among goalies in the league in pool points.

Up front, it was an impressive season from the team's big three, as Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau all finished in the top 20 forwards in scoring, all three in the 70+ range in points.  Of course, these three could all hit a point-per-game, if they were really on top of their game, but it turned out to be a better spread of the offense in the regular season.  Pavelski finished 9th with 79 points, Thornton was 13th with 76 and Marleau was 15th with 70 points.  Logan Couture also made an impact in the year, picking up 54 points in 65 games and Brent Burns, who converted to a forward from a defenseman for the year, scored 22 goals and added 26 assists in 69 games.

On the blueline, Dan Boyle and Jason Demers led the team with 36 & 34 points, respectively, finishing 34th and 37th in defenseman scoring in the year.  Boyle's season may have been considered a down year, while Demers is still trying to find some consistent offense in his game.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Matt Irwin also finished in the top 100 for the position, picking up 24 & 19 points of their own.

2015 Pool Outlook

From what we know already about the 2015 season, I think we could confidently say that there is going to be some new dynamics to this squad, but with the same coaching style, it may just be some re-tooling in the roster that dictates those changes.  With Dan Boyle already out of the picture, dealt to the Islanders before the end of the playoffs, the team will be looking to find a new power play quarterback, while the team floats in rumours that one of the big three forwards could find their way out of the picture as well.  It's hard to say whether or not this re-tooling will change how the Sharks perform in the regular season, but you have to know that they are going to try and make a change of how they play in the playoffs.

He didn't get a mention in the earlier parts of the post, but Tomas Hertl deserves at least one mention and being the young player that he is, here is as good of place as any.  Hertl's rookie season was hit by speed bump of a serious knee injury after getting off to a torrid start.  The 20-year old Czech forward finished with 15 goals in 37 games.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Not long after announcing that the Sharks would not be re-signing Dan Boyle, they managed to trade his rights for a conditional mid-round pick, so he would have been one of the scratches through unrestricted free agency regardless.  Scott Hannan and Mike Brown are the other two notable UFA's heading to market in July, barring a change of heart from management.

In terms of notable restricted free agents on their list, that would include goaltender Alex Stalock, forward Tommy Wingels and defenseman Jason Demers, all in need of new deals.  All three will looking for something long-term, as they are on the verge of unrestricted free agency, all being 26 years old.

The Sharks are supposed to be swimming through the trade market, looking for meaty morsels to latch on to with a deal or two.  Currently, I have San Jose locked in with 16 players (10 forwards, five defensemen and Niemi in net) at a rate of $58.9 million.  That would leave roughly $14.2 million for the remaining seven roster spots, but if the team can move Thornton or Martin Havlat, they would be playing with some significant cap hits.  Any big ticket cap trades would likely have to be fairly equal in cap space coming in to cap space going out.

The Sharks, in my estimation, don't have a great deal in their system to really boast about these days.  San Jose appears like they are in need of some more defensive help, as they only have a few prospects signed on for the coming season and some of their unsigned talent has been around for a while and haven't broken through, which doesn't bode well for the side.  Last year, they used their 1st round pick for defenseman Mirco Mueller and this year, I could see them taking 6'3", 190-pound defenseman Jack Glover.  Glover's scouting report is showing that he is a big, mobile defenseman, but he may be a bit of project, like a few of the other prospects in their time.  I don't think the Sharks will want to miss out on a top-ranked defenseman this year.

I could see why there would be hesitation to make drastic changes to the San Jose Sharks system, because they are only a piece or two away from getting the job done, in theory.  The Sharks may be a great example of how difficult it is to not only find talent that is compatible with your star players, but how lucky you have to get when you take a chance on certain veterans.  There are elements to every player's game that makes them unique and finding that correct chemistry for not only goals and assists, but clutch scoring for wins or coming back from deficits, is difficult to find.  The Sharks have been so close and they have some talent that is hard to find or very difficult to replace, so I will level with ownership for not changing on a whim this Summer.

But what does change this Summer has a huge impact on what direction that the Sharks go in during the 2015 regular season.  If it is Thornton, Marleau and/or Havlat that finds himself in a trade, each one of those guys are going to affect the team more than the other in their own category.  With that being said, a prediction for the 2015 season is going to be very difficult and may end up very vague.  The team has already moved Boyle and he'll need to be replaced, so in that they have already moved a big piece without any immediate successor, so that makes things even more difficult.  At the rate the team is going, as of before the Draft, I would say that the Sharks will be dropping their way into the Wild Card race, instead of staying in the Pacific Division race.  This could very well open the door for the Coyotes or the Canucks to make a push back up into the top three in the division.