Pool Outlook for St. Louis

There were some high expectations on the St. Louis Blues for the 2014 season, as the team that was built to play a rough & tumble game, modeled to grind games out and have a solid playoff-style game, didn't quite pan out the way they wanted it.

I think it is a fair argument to suggest that the Blues built their team to either compete against their division rivals in Chicago or at the very least, play like them.  In the end, round one of the playoffs, the Blues didn't quite have that playoff pedigree to get past the Blackhawks and they were left with more questions than answers.

The Blues narrowly missed out on the Central Division title, finishing a point behind the Colorado Avalanche for the distinction in the regular season, but with their destiny in their own hands, the Blues dropped their last six games and went into the playoffs on a serious down note.  The acquisition of Ryan Miller from the Sabres didn't give the team that added boost down the stretch or in the playoffs, but it was a gamble they were more than willing to take.

St. Louis has a solid core group of players, which should keep the team competitive in the West for a few more years, but they may have a limited window where they can be considered potential Cup champions.  Thankfully, in those years, they will also be a great place to pick players from for the hockey pool.

A couple of injuries really hurt the Blues' leading scorer, who was scoring goals at a torrid pace to start the year.  Alex Steen finished the 2014 season with 33 goals and 29 assists (62 points) in only 68 games, which put him 51st overall in pool scoring, 35th among all forwards.  Steen suffered a concussion in January, followed by a lower-body injury and then an upper-body in the late stages of the season, so despite scoring a bunch for the Blues, he did incur a pretty hard year.

The Blues were able to boast five 20-goal scorers, including Steen, up front in the 2014 season, but a number of minor injuries kept the team from being overly consistent with their line-ups.  T.J. Oshie scored 21 goals and 60 points in 79 games, David Backes had 27 goals and 57 points in 74 games, Jaden Schwartz broke out with 25 goals and 56 points n 80 games and Vladimir Tarasenko emerged with 21 goals and 43 points in 64 games.  The numbers for these five don't look too bad, but not having a forward in the top 50 in pool scoring suggests that the Blues lacked that pop that really put fear into the opposition, while they were skating in the offensive zone.

The blueline, on the other hand, boasted three of the top 50 defensemen in pool scoring.  Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Jay Bouwmeester were real bright spots for the team, finishing 8th, 14th and 33rd, respectively, in scoring.  Pietrangelo leading the way with 51 points in 81 games, followed by Shattenkirk with 45 in 81 and Bouwmeester had 37 in all 82 games.  All three will be hot commodities next season.

The goaltending situation in St. Louis was a hot topic at the trade deadline, which kind of blew up in the faces of Blues management when it came down to crunch time.  The team was already working with one of the league's best tandems in Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak, before Ryan Miller's name came into the conversation.  Sure enough, management decided that Miller would be a bonafide upgrade, dealing for the US Olympian, trading away Halak in the process.  Well, the team's record after the trade deadline was far worse than before the deadline and the first round exit from the playoffs was the cherry on top.  Miller finished the season with 54 points in pool scoring, 20th best among goalies, in his time split between the Sabres and Blues.  Only 22 points came from the Blues, 10 wins and a shutout, in 19 appearances.  In contrast, Elliott appeared in 31 games and finished with 47 points.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Blues are going to be a popular team at the hockey pool draft and rightly so.  As much as they didn't feature a marquee player in the 2014 season, I would be putting an asterisk beside Brian Elliott's name, as he has already been deemed the starting goalie for 2015 and his numbers are pretty good in St. Louis.  The split in goaltending duties over the past couple seasons has been rough on Blues goalies, picking them in the pools, but now that they have a number one and a back-up (Jake Allen) already named, things might be a little different.  I would also stay focused on the blueline for St. Louis, as they'll remain an intact unit.

As for youth, giving Allen the back-up job should mean that he'll get some playing time, finally, with the Blues and he is poised to be an eventual starter in the NHL.  He may not be a huge point-getter in 2015, assuming Elliott stays healthy, but he is one to keep your eye on next season.  Forward Ty Rattie played in two regular season games for the Blues near the end of the year, but was held pointless.  Rattie has some real offensive upside to his game and that little taste of NHL action should help his cause.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency has the potential to clean out quite a bit of veterans, if management chooses not to bring them back, as Ryan Miller, Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow, Steve Ott and Carlo Colaiacovo are all slated to become free agents on July 1st.  Miller is expected to hit the open market, while the clock continues to count down for the other four.

As for the restricted free agents, there is some work to be done with the forwards, as Jaden Schwartz is off his entry-level deal, while Vladimir Sobotka and Patrik Berglund require new deals for the 2015 season.  I would imagine the team will try and bridge Schwartz to his long-term deal down the road, while Sobotka and Berglund may negotiate for some longer-term deals.

The Blues, by my count, already have their blueline full and their crease ready to rock and with seven forwards also on the books, their annual cap hit should be about $47.2 million for 16 players.  Against the projected ceiling, that should leave the team with $23.9 million in cap space for seven more roster spots.  St. Louis appears to be financially sound for a big 2015 season.

The Blues potentially would have shipped their 1st round draft pick this year to the Buffalo Sabres, if they made the Western Conference Finals with Ryan Miller, re-signed the veteran goaltender or even dealt him before the draft.  None of those three things happened, so the Blues will go ahead with their pick in the 21st overall spot.  The Blues haven't picked much in the 1st round over the past few years, the last time was in 2012, when they took defenseman Jordan Schmaltz, who is playing in the NCAA.  I would see the Blues trying to just upgrade their forward corps, as they are running with most of their homegrown talent already in their line-up.  The possibility of some dynamic scoring in Swiss centre Kevin Fiala may be rather intriguing for the Blues.  More help down the middle and might be a home run, even at 5'11".

There is a lot to like from a hockey pool perspective with the St. Louis Blues, especially since they spread their offense around quite well.  Sure, they don't have that dominating scorer, but when you spread this offense out, they do become harder to defend.  At the same time, without that lights out talent, they can find themselves with a power outage and the odds are a bit greater that nothing happens on the scoresheet.  It's a delicate balance, but the Blues do pull it off quite well.

I fully expect the Blues to be active in the marketplace this Summer and I expect them to pull out some pretty good talent, since this franchise looks like one of the more promising teams to play for going forward.  If the team can find themselves a player with a better playoff pedigree to lead this squad of youngsters, they could really push for Cup contention in the year.  I like St. Louis' chances at a Central Division title in the regular season next year and on the shoulders of a regular number one, who should play all year for the team, they could be confident enough to make that push into the West Finals or even further.  I think the best year for the Blues is right in front of us.