Sunday, June 08, 2014

Pool Outlook for Columbus

I'm not sure there is an NHL team that relies on their number one goaltender, like the Columbus Blue Jackets.  On the plus side, they have a goaltender that can carry them into the playoffs and they certainly gave the Pittsburgh Penguins a good run in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The 2014 Blue Jackets brought back a lot of memories of the 1999 Buffalo Sabres, that rode Dominik Hasek all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, with the addition of a hard-working team.  Columbus, to their credit, play a very blue collar game and they have got a few of their young players to buy into the system and it nearly worked for them this year.

The Jackets are not exactly what you'd call a sexy team, when it comes to hockey pools, as very few of their players jump out as solid selections that you could count on, but they are definitely working hard to change that perspective for us poolies.  I wouldn't say that I am getting overly excited to slip a Blue Jacket in here or there on my list, but I will definitely consider them to be a good depth move, at the right spot in the draft.

Sergei Bobrovsky made 58 starts for the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2014 season, winning 32 games, 5 by shutout and he added an assist for a 75-point season.  That's a great way to follow up a Vezina Trophy season, if you ask me.  The 25-year old Russian keeper took a little while to get his NHL legs underneath him, but thanks to a solid opportunity from the Jackets, Bobrovsky has given himself a reputation of being a solid netminder and one we can look at in the 1st round of the hockey pool draft.  Bobrovsky finished 23rd overall in pool scoring, 10th among goalies, but until the team gets a little more consistent around him, he probably won't jump up to the upper echelon of goalies.

Depth at the goaltending position does drop off a little, but Curtis McElhinney did provide a reasonable alternative as a back-up goalie in 2014, winning 10 games out of his 21 starts and he did make seven relief appearances as well in the year.

Up front, it was a coming out party, of sorts, for Ryan Johansen, their 2010 1st round pick (4th overall), as he scored 33 goals and 30 assists in all 82 games, finishing 49th overall in pool scoring.  Johansen was projected to have some real offensive upside, but his journey to the NHL was a bit longer than some expected, spending quite a bit of time in the AHL, maturing his game.  Johansen was aided well by guys like Brandon Dubinsky (50 points in 76 games), Cam Atkinson (40 points in 79 games), Artem Anisimov (39 points in 81 games) and Nick Foligno (39 points in 70 games).  The Jackets didn't blow the doors off many games, but they did enough to compliment their goaltending in the back for wins.

On the blueline, it is somewhat of an underrated crew, led by James Wisniewski, who had a pretty good year, finishing 9th in defenseman scoring with 7 goals and 44 assists in 75 games.  Jack Johnson (33 points in 82 games), Fedor Tyutin (26 points in 69 games) and rookie Ryan Murray (21 points in 66 games) rounded out a core group that remained fairly steady throughout the year.  I'm sure these guys will find some homes in the 2015 season, among poolies, and they'll quietly go about with their business.

2015 Pool Outlook

Well, in part, I've pretty much covered the outlook for taking Blue Jackets in the pool for next year in their review.  Bobrovsky is going to be a coveted player in the 1st round, you'll see some forwards sprinkled throughout the draft and the defensemen will likely be steady additions to any team.  At first glance at their projected roster, there doesn't appear to be a lot of change to the overall scope of the team, as I fully expect the management team to take care of some outstanding free agents and then the core of the team returns.  There may be a level of expectation that some of their younger players, like Boone Jenner and Matt Calvert make a bigger jump, but that could be tempered with how much ice-time they earn.

There are a few names on their prospect list that raise an eyebrow or two, including all three 1st round picks from last Summer... Alexander Wennberg (14th), Kerby Rychel (19th) and Marko Dano (27th).  Out of the three, the one that pops to the forefront is Rychel, who was a Memorial Cup finalist with the Guelph Storm, as he showed some NHL-pedigree in his game in the tournament and the entire OHL season.  2012 2nd round pick, goalie Oscar Dansk, has some potential, but it could be a bit early to give him that job.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency will touch on some depth players for the Blue Jackets this Summer, as they will ride the balance of being a good role player, more than they actually score.  Derek MacKenzie, Blake Comeau and Jack Skille, up front, while Nikita Nikitin and Nick Schultz will go from the blueline.  Career back-up goalies Curtis McElhinney and Mike McKenna will also make for some interesting conversation.

The more important signings will be the restricted free agents, as this team grows as a collective.  Ryan Johansen leads the way and will likely get a reasonable raise in what should be a bridge deal, but looking long-term wouldn't be out of the picture.  Corey Tropp and Matt Frattin will get long talks up front, with David Savard, Dalton Prout and Cody Goloubef negotiating a thin blueline corps.

From what I've gathered in this review, I have the Jackets in with 15 signed players, 10 forwards, four defensemen and a goalie, coming in at $48.3 million, leaving about $22.8 million left to spend.  The big money will be going into Johansen and then re-assessing their depth players, trying for that key upgrade to help them along.

I can see the Columbus Blue Jackets going after another defenseman at this point in the draft, trying to help solidify a thin blueline.  The name that pops up as a good fit and still being available in my mock draft style reviews is Finnish defender Julius Honka.  Although he is diminutive in size, his offensive upside is supposed to rank quite high among those in his draft class and has had some solid comparisons to some of the NHL best.  It may take an extra little while for a kid of that size to be comfortable in the NHL, but if they can have a complimentary offensive force to a kid like Ryan Murray, they could have a formidable 1-2 punch in 3-to-4 years.

The Columbus Blue Jackets will continue to be a bubble team, but making the playoffs with the core group of players that they have is a sign that they may find some consistency on the bubble.  There are a few teams that have been on the bubble, either in or out, and have seen some success.  As they say these days, all you have to do is make the playoffs to have a chance at the Stanley Cup and in some cases, that's exactly what it is.

I'm not going to go out of my way to predict that the Blue Jackets will make any astronomical improvements in their team or their game, but not making the playoffs next year wouldn't be the end of the world for the team.  This team, at its core, is still really young and could use the adversity to grow as a team.  The Blue Jackets will make some savvy moves in the off-season, they'll fill some gaps and they'll compete again in the Eastern Conference.  Will they make the playoffs next year?  I might lean to no, just because there are some teams that will improve a little bit more, but it will be awfully close... all things being equal.

No comments: