Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Pool Outlook for Minnesota

Back-to-back years in the playoffs, which includes a second round exit to the Chicago Blackhawks in this year's tournament, means the Minnesota Wild are coming around as a franchise on the rise.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that when a team starts to throw around some serious money, like the Wild did with both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter a couple Summers ago, there is going to be an upswing in a franchise's results.  Of course, there has to be some good management of that money, but General Manager Chuck Fletcher made a couple wise decisions, making Parise and Suter his franchise players.

There were some more keen moves for the 2014 season, as Fletcher acquired Nino Niederreiter from the New York Islanders in the off-season and then picked up Matt Moulson at the deadline from the Buffalo Sabres.  Both players came in handy down the stretch, as the Wild made their push into a Wild Card spot in the West.

The biggest surprise of the season came when the Wild were able to upset the Colorado Avalanche in the opening round of the playoffs, taking Game Seven in Denver, shocking the Central Division regular season champs.  The Wild's game plan of buckling down and keeping games close to the vest was their best play and it almost pushed the Blackhawks to a seventh game, but unfortunately, the Wild fell short of another 7-game series and ultimately, knocked out of the playoffs.

Still, the Wild are a team on the rise and with some more clever work, Minnesota could find themselves in the thick of the Central Division fight with Colorado, Chicago and St. Louis, who owned the top three spots in the division.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that Jason Pominville was the best player for the Minnesota Wild in the 2014 season, but he did come away with the most points for us poolies in the season and that gets him the big picture on the team's post.  Pominville finished the season with 30 goals and 30 assists in all 82 games, ranking 60th overall in pool scoring, 43rd among all forwards.  Over the last six seasons, Pominville has averaged a ranking of 67th in the NHL, so he stays as a model of consistency for poolies to rely on.

Both Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu both had better scoring rates in the 2014 season, thanks to 56 & 54-point seasons, respectively, but injuries got the better of the two, playing in 67 & 65 games each.  Both players helped the Wild to their end goal, which was the playoffs, but there is still some room to improve on this team, both on the scoresheet and the standings and a healthy Parise and Koivu will help.  Rental pick-up Matt Moulson finished the year with 51 points in 73 games, while Mikael Granlund scored 41 points in 63 games and Nino Niederreiter had 36 points in 81 games to round out the top forwards for the team.

On the blueline, the team was led by one of their franchise players, as Ryan Suter finished with 43 points in all 82 games, which was somewhat down from his 2013 season, as he finished 157th overall in pool scoring, only 19th among all defensemen.  Jared Spurgeon (26 points in 67 games) and Jonas Brodin (19 points in 79 games) were the only other two defensemen in the top 100, so you could surmise that the Wild didn't quite get enough from the back end, but that doesn't take away from the overall potential of the group.

Goaltending was a contentious issue for the Wild in the 2014 season, as Niklas Backstrom lost his number one job in the early part of the season, as Josh Harding got off to a torrid start, swiping the job away.  Unfortunately, Harding's treatments for his Multiple Sclerosis got the best of him, as he dropped out of the crease for long stretches and Backstrom suffered injuries of his own, which left the crease to Darcy Kuemper and another trade deadline pick-up in Ilya Bryzgalov.   All four goalies were able to play in over 1,000 minutes in the crease, Bryzgalov doing so between Edmonton and Minnesota, but it was Harding who led the way in points, finishing with 42, thanks to 18 wins and 3 shutouts.

2015 Pool Outlook

Is anyone going to be in a rush to pick up any Minnesota Wild players in the 2015 hockey pool draft?  No, probably not, but that isn't to say that the Wild are not going to be a solid team to choose from.  Parise, Koivu, Suter and Granlund are all going to be picked in good time, while Niederreiter, Spurgeon and Brodin will compliment some rosters with some reasonable depth scoring.  The only real question mark will be the goaltending.  I don't anyone will outright say that they'll avoid the Wild goaltending, it may just be a matter of consequence, as Harding's health is a serious concern and Backstrom's ability to bounce back from a rough year will fuel some doubters.

The only other signed goaltender on the Minnesota Wild roster is Johan Gustafsson, who may find some time in net by default for the team in 2015.  It is a bit of a long shot at this time, especially since there is so much time between the playoffs and the next regular season, but I think it would be silly not to acknowledge this idea.  The Wild will also give another long look to Matthew Dumba on the blueline, who was sent back to junior after 13 games last season.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency will clear out some consistent under-performers for the Wild, as Dany Heatley and Zenon Konopka will likely be let go to the open market, leaving some space for possibly retaining rental players Matt Moulson or Ilya Bryzgalov.

Management will have a bit of work to do, as goaltender Darcy Kuemper, forwards Nino Niederreiter, Justin Fontaine and Jason Zucker will all need new deals as restricted free agents.  I would expect all four to get some reasonable deals to stay with the team, as they all provided the team with good depth and some timely contributions in 2014.

The Wild are one of those teams that ride that fine line between a budget team and a spending team.  When a team throws over $7 million a year to two players, it's hard to call them a budget team, exactly, but since they have 15 players on their projected roster today, coming in at a reasonable $46.9 million, they may not be in for spending all of the remaining $24.2 million.  Minnesota will be in the mix for re-signing Moulson, which may cost them a pretty penny, especially if he makes it to July 1st, but I can't see them being a ceiling team in October.

The Wild moved their 1st round pick last Spring to get Jason Pominville, but this time around, they will go ahead and pick from the 18th spot in the Entry Draft.  I would think the Wild would be looking at just making a solid pick, as they have run themselves somewhat dry in the prospect department, especially among those who have a contract for next season.  Finding a centre in the league is a difficult feat and the Wild may find themselves in a good spot to pick Jared McCann, who played for Sault Saint Marie in the OHL.  McCann ranks well among scouts, deemed a solid two-way centre, something you can't have too many of in a franchise.

It is kind of hard to say, exactly, where it went wrong for the Wild in the playoffs this year or maybe to ask who could have been better, as the team fell behind in games on the road and found it hard to recover on some nights.  The Wild were good in their own building, keeping the opposition to a limited amount of shots and relied less on their goaltending in key points in the games.  They are still a relatively new group playing together, but with two playoff years under their belt, you would have to imagine that they are coming together as a whole and that has to be exciting for Wild fans.

No matter how good their team defense is going to be in the 2015 season, I get the feeling that the uncertainty in the crease will be the tipping point on where the Wild finish in the standings.  If Josh Harding can get his affliction under control or have Niklas Backstrom return to a form we saw in 2009, then that worry goes out the window and the Wild are now back in the conversation for the Central Division title, let alone a Wild Card spot.  The Wild will be a player in the off-season and that will play a role to where they finish in the year, but it won't be the end all.  I like the Wild to be in the race in 2015, but with the constant improvement of teams below them in the standings, they need all the chips to fall in the right places for a shot.

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