Yes, this is another spot that I did about the same time last season, so I thought I would do it again. It helps me a little and it only helps you if you've stayed long enough to read this.I truly believe that health risks and indentifying them is key to winning a hockey pool. Sure, you can always say that there is an element of luck when it comes to the health of some players, but there isn't stereotypes about ironmen and injury-prone players for no reason. If you know who to avoid in your drafting or selecting process, you just give yourself a little more opportunity for those chosen players to score for your team.
Last year, I covered the number of players that played 80 or more games in 2008. That number was 141 out of 941 players (including goalies), where 89 players played 82 games (or more, Jeff Halpern). In 2009, there were 155 out of 972 players (including goalies) that played 80 or more games and there were 86 who played 82 games (or more, Jordan Leopold). These players who can play and be durable enough for 80 or more games are your bread and butter and should be valued as such, in my opinion.
I would also like to do a review, no matter how wrong I will be about players I talked about last year. Todd Bertuzzi missed 16 games due to injury last season and only scored 15 goals. His sore back hampered his play in Calgary and probably is one of the reasons why he is still a free agent. Ales Hemsky has yet to play an 82-game season in his career, missing 10 games and wasn't quite as effective in Edmonton as he possibly could have been. Ray Whitney did come out and surprise me, for the better of course. He played in all 82 games and finished in the top 50 in scoring, which is awesome for him. Pavol Demitra was also hampered by injury, missing 13 games with the Canucks, but still scored 20 goals, so it wasn't a terrible season for him. Erik Cole was another that played 80 games in 2009, but that actually didn't help his play, while he was in Edmonton. When he was traded to Carolina, it was a bit of a different story, but playing the better part of the year with the Oilers did hurt him greatly. I was glad to see Ed Jovanovski finally shake off that injury bug and play 82 games last season. I might remove him from my injury-plagued list after a year like that. Yeah, I think he's finally going to come off my list. Way to go, Ed! Mike Comrie isn't coming off the list. He only managed to play 63 games for the Islanders & Senators last season, also having one of his worst production seasons in recent history with only 27 points. David Legwand played in 72 games last season, which certainly isn't terrible, but his production slipped again, dropping down even more spots in the scoring ranks. He might just be one to avoid, because he can't score, let alone play 80+ games. Of course, you can't measure goalies on the number of games they play and compare it against the 82-game schedule, but an A-level goalie is going to play 3,500 minutes or more (mostly more) in a season and Kari Lehtonen only finished with 2,624 minutes played. Finally, Stephen Weiss was the last player featured last year, not having played 77 games since his first full season in the league. Well, Weiss obviously must have heard me and came to the party 78 times, just to show me up. It was also his best scoring year in the league, finally ranking him in the top 100 in pool scoring. He's not off the list just yet though.
Now, I'll add another ten players to my injury-prone list. These are going to be players that I will avoid like the plague at my fantasy draft this year and for good reason.
For the most part, Daniel Briere did keep himself in pretty good shape in his NHL career, but he does have a spotty record in the overall scope of things. Last season's on-again, off-again situation with his abdominal and groin injuries has really left a bad taste in my mouth. He quickly became a player I didn't want to trust with my fantasy money invested. If you're playing in a salary cap system as well, he does take up a lot of space with his injured ways and really isn't cost-efficient. Sure, his scoring rate was pretty good at the beginning part of the year, but it's a gamble not worth taking. At best, he is a mid-round gamble, but I would be very hesitant, if I was going to include him on my list.
You know, I think I caught onto this after I published my list last year... I forgot to include Marian Gaborik. The newly-signed Ranger has had more than his fair share of injuries over the past few seasons, including a terrible year in 2009. Gaborik only managed to play in 17 games for the Wild, but was scoring at a torrid pace when he was in the line up, scoring 13 goal and 10 assists. There is no question that the Slovak has skills, but he hasn't played 80+ games since the 2002-'03 season. Sure, he did play in 77 in the 2008 season, but he's now had hip and groin problems and multiple surgeries, so I ask you, do you want a player with worn joints and skating muscles on your team?
It's all gone a little bit downhill for Fernando Pisani of the Oilers, as he's playing less and less games as his career has gone on. Now, granted that Pisani is a third or fourth line checking winger, he does have 0.40 ppg average in his NHL career, which isn't too bad. If he can play 80 games in a season, he could net you 32 points, which could be good enough for a late round pick in a deeper draft. Unfortunately, since an 80-game season in 2006, he has seen his games played go down due to injury. 77 games in 2007, 56 games in 2008 and finally, 38 games in 2009. You may want to wait for him to buck this trend before jumping on his bandwagon again.
I wouldn't go so far as to say that Paul Kariya is necessarily "injury-prone," but with a serious hip injury and surgeries under his belt (quite literally, but pardon the pun), there is some concern for a player that used to play an 82-game season quite regularly in his career. Kariya was off to one of his better starts to a season before coming down with his hip injury, already notching 15 points (2G, 13A) in only 11 games for the Blues. If there is any consoloation to having Kariya on this list, it does allow me to point out that the last time Kariya missed a significant amount of time in a season (22 games played in 1997-'98), he did come back to play a full 82-game schedule. Personally, I am a bit concerned about it being a hip injury, a major joint for skating, which may make me steer clear of him, despite his scoring record in such a short period last year.
Another name that I had forgotten last year when compiling my first list, which I'm not going to forget this year is Tim Connolly of the Sabres. Connolly could definitely be considered one of the more injury-prone players of this generation, as in the past three seasons, he's only played in 98 games and it just doesn't seem to be getting any better for him. Like Kariya above him, if you keep any hope that he'll play a full year, you'll be rewarded with some good scoring talent, as he picked up 47 points (18G, 29A) in 48 games last season. Connolly was sidelined twice in the 2009 season, once with a back injury and the other with a broken rib, but did manage to play from January 24th to the end of the year without incident, so there is hope. I'm still going to wait for a clean bill of health.
The future of the Colorado Avalanche is swirling around Paul Stastny, but only if he can keep himself off of the shelf. Stastny missed 37 games in 2009 and 16 games in 2008, which might grow some concern going forward. He's got so much potential, but he has to play a full-season after realizing to have a major impact on the league. Without a doubt, Stastny should be an 80 to 90 point player in the NHL, but his luck is really catching up to his numbers. In his first two seasons, he was in the top 50 in pool scoring, but the 2009 season left him in 221st and now with the loss of Joe Sakic to retirement, he will also now be mentor-less and will have to assume a lot of responsibility. Be sure to keep this in mind.
I think it will be great to start the season with the prospect of Steve Sullivan being healthy for game one for the first time since 2006. Sullivan was out for well over an entire season, missing the entirety of the 2007-'08 campaign, plus the first 40 games of this past season, but has now come back and seems to be in some pretty good shape. He finished last season with 11 goals and 21 assists in 41 games with the Predators, slowly getting his league legs back. I am really interested to know how he'll return to the line-up after a full off-season of working out. From a fantasy standpoint here, however, I would not be in a huge rush to put him back in your line-up, for fears that back problems are also quite serious. Make this 2010 season one to evaluate his progress and if possible, make him a mid-season acquisition.
Another one of those, "why didn't I have him on the list before" players is Rick DiPietro of the Islanders. Even his own team, who signed him to the massive 15-year deal, doesn't have a great deal of faith in their franchise goalie, as they went out and signed both Martin Biron and Dwayne Roloson in the off-season, which seems to be a blatant slap in the face of DiPietro. Knee and groin injuries have been DiPietro's downfall over the past few seasons, but in 2009, it was it's worst. He only appeared in five games for the Islanders, winning only one, and there hasn't been any positive news to come out of Long Island regarding his status for the upcoming year. Stay away!
You likely don't have Brent Sopel on your list, as there is a chance that you forgot about him altogether. Did you know he was actually a member of the Blackhawks last season? Well, probably not from the 23 games that he played last year. He didn't play a game beyond December 20th and even before then, he was either a healthy scratch or was suffering from an undisclosed injury. In July, Sopel did say that his elbow is going to be as healthy as it's going to get, which isn't 100%, but it looks like he'll still give it a go this season. That's not exactly re-assuring, nor is it safe from the fantasy standpoint. Give him a miss.
Things are not looking up for Eric Brewer of the Blues. Brewer missed 54 games last season with a back injury and has undergone a couple of surgeries, which haven't been healing as quickly as he or the team would have hoped. Brewer is somewhat of a 'feast or famine' player when it comes to games played, as he does have a good record of seasons where he's played more than 75 games, but he has also had a few seasons where he's played in less than half of the games. He's an alright gamble, if he can play a whole season, but he is definitely a gamble.
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