Monday, June 23, 2014

Pool Outlook for Los Angeles

Two Stanley Cups in three years and another Western Conference Finals in there as well and you could say that the model franchise in the NHL at the moment is the Los Angeles Kings.

Kings management has done an absolutely stellar job, not only assembling this team, but keeping the core group together and applying their formula of the acquisition of players to the mold that the coaching staff has in place.  A world-class goaltender behind a defense-first focused group, which has the ability for clutch scoring and carries a flavour of strong physical play.

With all of that being said, it's easy to become confident when you're winning with this formula and when you're confident, your team becomes resilient and if that wasn't the mantra of the Kings' 2014 playoff run, I would be perplexed to find another one.

Going up and down their roster, generally, you're seeing guys who have been there before now.  None of the skaters have been overly electric in the regular season, but the regular season is only the vehicle that gets you to the playoffs and as long as you make it, nothing else really matters.

I think there will be a great deal of eyes to see how the Kings prepare themselves to defend their title and possibly start the first dynasty of the 21st century.

Leading the way for the Kings in the regular season was forward Anze Kopitar, who had a whale of a year, which included taking his home country, Slovenia, to the Olympics and performing quite admirably in the tournament.  Kopitar finished the NHL regular season with 29 goals and 70 points in all 82 games for Los Angeles, which was good enough for 27th overall and 16th among all forwards.  His totals would have landed him as a high 2nd round pick in this past year's draft, according to the numbers, but one of the things the Kings don't need as a team is an elite scorer, as the team really does score well as a collective.

The Kings only had one more top 100 forward in scoring, Jeff Carter, who finished with 27 goals and 50 points in 72 games.  The team did have quite a bit of scoring depth that spanned over the top 225 forwards, which is very deep, but included Justin Williams, Mike Richards, Dwight King, trade deadline acquisition Marian Gaborik, Tyler Toffoli and Dustin Brown.  None of them really sparkled through the regular season, but they sure showed what they were made of in the playoffs, which helped them to their Stanley Cup win.

The blueline, on the other hand, flexed some muscle, as they had four of the top 100 defenseman scorers.  Drew Doughty led the way with 10 goals and 37 points in 78 games, a down year indeed, finishing 31st among those who patrol the blueline.  Slava Voynov had 34 points in all 82 games, followed by Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez, who had 24 & 22 points, respectively.  All four players also had some high-profile playoff performances, which will definitely go to spark their values at this coming year's hockey pool draft.

Goaltending was such a strength for the Kings in 2014, they had to trade one away, just to make sure everyone was happy.  Jonathan Quick was again the number one guy, making 49 starts and winning 27, with 6 shutouts and 2 assists, giving him 68 points on the year, good enough for 14th among regular season goalies.  Of course, he was number one through the playoffs.  Martin Jones won the back-up job midway through the year, as the Kings dealt Ben Scrivens to the Oilers, and Jones finished strong, making 18 starts, winning 12 of those, adding 4 shutouts and an assist to his totals for 33 points.  Jones was ranked 36th among all goalies in pool points.

2015 Pool Outlook

Being the champions, the Kings will get a some extra looks from us poolies, I'm sure, but if we've learned anything from our quick little review above, the Kings may not be the best team to make our picks from.  A great team, no doubt, but the scoring is spread out, which keeps some of the marquee guys down an extra round or two.  I would imagine that Jonathan Quick will bump back up into a 1st round pick, while Anze Kopitar may find a bit of bump up, and Drew Doughty will be expected to be better as well.  It will be the depth players that make all the difference and as long as you're not overvaluing those guys from Los Angeles, you should come away with a really good hockey pool team.

Did you notice Tanner Pearson in the playoffs?  No?  Did you even watch the playoffs?  Oh, THAT Tanner Pearson.  Yes, that one.  I don't expect Pearson to knock anyone's socks off in the hockey pool, but he is the type of player that can give some added depth to a late-round pick.  If you're looking for a quality youngster, he would be one that I would look towards.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The Kings have some work to do before players head to unrestricted free agency, as they are still interested in retaining the services of Marian Gaborik, Willie Mitchell and Matt Greene for the upcoming season, at the very least.

Restricted free agency may be a little less work or less priority, at the least.  Dwight King is the only roster player that is in need of a new RFA deal, which shouldn't be too bad.  The 24-year old did have a good playoffs, so he could be in line for a nice new deal.

We're still dealing with the projected $71.1 million cap ceiling in this post and that leaves the Kings with about $13.1 million left for five roster spots.  This may prove to be a little difficult for all three potential UFA's and King to be signed on, but there is some wiggle room in there.  I wouldn't be surprised if there was a deal or two in the off-season, just to ease the pressure at the cap ceiling.

The last time the Kings won the Cup, they took their 1st round pick and selected Tanner Pearson, so they seem to be doing alright with some later picks in the opening round.  The Kings will likely look to continue on with those two-way players, looking to have them play in the Daryl Sutter system.  With the 29th overall pick, I can see the Kings looking at Conner Bleackley, who played in a different Sutter system in Red Deer with the WHL Rebels.  Touted as a heart and soul forward, according to the Hockey News, he could be the kind of kid that would be a slam dunk in the Kings system.

The Kings, to me, are a complete franchise that continues to progress well, in the light the changes that a franchise will see over the course over three years.  A lot of fatigue talk dominated the team's playoff run, but Los Angeles overcame that chatter with a decisive win in the finals.  Even the year after they won their first Cup, they still made it to the Western Finals, losing to another Cup championship team in Chicago.  The Kings are setup for long runs now and there doesn't seem to be any slowing this momentum.

Barring major injury to key players, I think the Kings will be tough to knock off.  I think the Kings stay the course, which may not mean they are as strong in the regular season as they are in the playoffs, but if they win when it matters, then the regular season is somewhat of a moot point.  The Kings will be in the conversation for the Pacific Division title, they may fall short to some teams, but all they have to do is make it to the dance again and they're set.  If the Kings can re-sign a scorer like Marian Gaborik, I think there is a real shot of repeating for their championship.

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