Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Pool Outlook for New Jersey

I don't think there was a lot of hope for the Devils going into the 2015 season and expectations had to be kept to a minimum for the most part.  They showed some life here and there, but their lack of offense (28th in the league in goals for) really diminished the impact of a team that was in the middle of the road for keeping pucks out of their own net (15th in the league in goals against).

Saying that things are dire in the swamp, might be a little out of hand now, less so than at the beginning of the year, because there were a lot of moves and decisions made that really felt like they were reopening the funny farm at the Prudential Center.

Nevertheless, when the trade deadline came around, the team was already doomed to miss the playoffs, they were able to move some assets for the future, but that future still looks rather murky at this point.  Where do the Devils go from here?

By the end of the regular season or just after the trade deadline, there were only three active New Jersey players in the 23-team hockey pool and they did finish 1-2-3 in pool scoring, which shows that the pool had a keen eye on who was still doing something on this team.

Season 2 of the Cory Schneider show was by no means a bust, as the New Jersey Devils fed him as many minutes as he could possibly handle and he did what he could to keep them in most games, but it just wasn't to be in 2015, as he only managed 26 wins, 5 shutouts and 2 assists for 64 points this year, 53rd overall in pool scoring, 19th best among all goalies.  For a team that finished 25th overall, Schneider played his ass off and if he had a bit more help on his team this year, he could have made a solid run.

Surprisingly, the Devils did have five forwards that were actually pool worthy, albeit, only two of them were still selected by the end of the year.  Adam Henrique led the bunch with 43 points in 75 games, Mike Cammalleri had 42 points in 68 games, Patrik Elias and Scott Gomez had 34 points each and Steve Bernier was near the bottom of the barrel with 32 points.  It's true, no one lept of the page, but if the pool smoothed itself out among all 23 teams, these are the players that would have been in your 7th or 8th forward.

On the blueline, the Devils had a couple of defensemen worthy of the cut at the end of the season, but you could make the argument for a couple more, if they were to have stayed healthy through the entire season.  Making the cut would be Adam Larsson and Andy Greene, finishing with 25 and 24 points, respectively.  Yes, they were closer to the bottom of the pool ranks, but they made it.  Eric Gelinas and Damon Severson missed 21 and 31 games and had comparable scoring rates to their teammates, which would have put them in the conversation.  Don't forget them when you're picking defensemen late next season.

Beyond Schneider, Keith Kinkaid got a pretty good lesson in backup goaltending and got shelled with it.  He gets a mention for his efforts, but projecting him going forward won't make him into a pool worthy goalie.

2016 Pool Outlook

Looking at where the team stands going into the off-season, there is nothing terribly special about the roster that they have signed on at the moment.  Beyond Schneider, the Devils are going to be going with a roster of depth players for your hockey pool draft, because they have no bonafide offensive catalyst.  Mike Cammalleri may be the most dangerous player on their roster, but even he needs someone to feed him the puck in shooting positions.  I wouldn't have the Devils projected very high right now and it would take a miracle acquisition to change that, I'm thinking.

I know what you're thinking... do the Devils even know what a rookie is anymore?  They have yet to sign any of their key 2014 draft picks yet and I don't think they are in any rush to do so either.  Okay, they might know what a good rookie is, since they did dress Damon Severson enough last year to make a difference, but I can't see any youngsters making the jump for Jersey any time soon.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

If the Devils choose to infuse their lineup with youth, now is the time to do it.  Scott Gomez, Steve Bernier, Michael Ryder, Jordin Tootoo, Martin Havlat, Peter Harrold, Mark Fraser and Bryce Salvador... all unrestricted free agents this Summer.  Those are a lot of gaps that you can push with youth, so it's something to consider.

As for RFA's, the real headliners are on defense, where both Adam Larsson and Eric Gelinas are in need of new deals and they are more than capable of getting reasonable deals, thanks to good years.

Right now, the current projection stands at $71.1 million and the Devils have 23 players signed on for 2016 and still have $16.2 million in cap space before the ceiling.  You can take away a deal like Ryane Clowe's, since he may not play again and things get even easier.  It will be hard for the Devils to attract a name to town, but a youth movement may serve them well.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

Speaking about needing an offensive catalyst up front earlier in the post, leads me to believe that this is where they should be addressing, in terms of needs in their lineup.  Mitch Marner appears to be the next best player on the list and he comes with plenty of fan fare out of the OHL, finishing second in league scoring this season with the London Knights.  I don't think he would be moving up to the NHL any time soon in the Devils organization, but at least he would be a good piece of the puzzle for down the road.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

I get the feeling that the Devils have less to stand on in the upcoming 2015 season, compared to the 2014 season that just finished. New Jersey made one hell of an effort to come back from a really slow start to the year, but didn't make it. I can't see the Devils being as strong as they were in the later part of the year, since they are relying on a lot of aged players and some talent that may not have adequate help. Their salary cap numbers are not going to make them competitive in the free agent market, which will set this team behind even further. I can see the Hurricanes and Islanders move past the Devils in 2015 and New Jersey might be in the thick of the Connor McDavid sweepstakes next Summer.

To the Devils' credit, they stuck in the wild card race a lot longer than my prediction would have warranted in the year, but at the end, they were in the thick of the Connor McDavid race, especially since the odds were less in Buffalo's favour than anyone elses.  Okay, sure... the Islanders weren't below the Devils, far from it, but who saw their moves coming, right?  The Devils were able to clean up their books a little bit, add some futures and help their cause moving forward.  They definitely weren't as strong in 2015, as they finished 2014, so I will chalk that one up to the good side... most of last year's prediction was decent, I'd say.

The Devils may get a good taste of picking high in the Entry Draft this June, so they may stay the course in July, sign some of the bargain basement free agents to fill out the roster and then try to play for another high pick in the 2016 draft as well.  Unfortunately for a guy like Cory Schneider, the team around him is going to feel that his season has gone to waste and he still has some long-term ties to the club.  Between Schneider eating a lot of minutes and the team filled with mediocrity, I can see the Devils missing the playoffs by a bunch, but not being the worst team in the league, possibly picking in the 6-to-10 range again next Summer.

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