Monday, May 18, 2009

Pool Outlook for San Jose

Another early playoff exit for the San Jose Sharks is what the headlines looking back at their season will feature. True, it was another upsetting finish to a season, where they did so well in the regular season in the stat columns, but even the addition of Claude Lemieux to the ranks wasn't going to settle anything in for a long playoff run. Fortunately, for poolies like yourself and myself, the Sharks will continue to provide us with plenty of scoring options to try and win our pools.

It shouldn't come as any surprise to see Evgeni Nabokov at the top of the heap again, when it comes to Sharks' pool scoring. He's finished in the top 10 in pool scoring in 4 out of the last 7 seasons, according to my shortened records and he finished 6th in 2009 after a 97-point effort. Nabokov finished the year with 41 wins, 7 shutouts and 1 assist for his point totals and has solidified himself as one of the more solid first round picks in the league. At 33 years old, he also has good few years left in the tank, which makes him a good pick in keeper pools too.

Despite Nabokov's large amount of minutes played, Brian Boucher did manage to get in some time while Nabokov was away with injury, racking up 12 wins and 2 shutouts for 28 points, ranking him 40th among goalies. Some starters didn't even figure that high, which is shocking. Boucher may not be a very high pick, but if you are left with only back-up goalies to pick from late, Boucher could be a good consideration, if he's in San Jose next year.

Up front, it was a bit of a down year for Joe Thornton, who led all forwards in San Jose with 86 points in 82 GP. Thornton is usually a top 10 scoring forward, but this season, his low totals dropped him to 15th in pool rankings, thanks in some part to a lack of 40-goal scorers playing with him on his line. Thornton only finished with 61 assists in the year, which is his lowest total since joining the Sharks a few seasons ago. Nevertheless, he is fairly constant as an assist-getter, so hesitation about picking him should be little.

There were a number of other San Jose forwards that contributed well in 2009. Patrick Marleau had a bounce back season with 71 points in 76 GP, falling short of a point-per-game average. Marleau also led the team in goals with 38. Devin Setoguchi broke out this past season, scoring 31 goals and 65 points in 81 GP. Joe Pavelski had 59 points in 80 GP, Milan Michalek had 57 points in 77 GP and Ryane Clowe had 52 points in 71 GP, all to become good players to pick up for next season. Unfortunately, Jonathan Cheechoo has started to fall right off the map, when it comes to poolies, scoring only 12 goals and 29 points in 66 GP this season.

On defense, the acquisition of Dan Boyle to the line-up was fairly productive, as he scored 16 goals and 57 points in 77 GP in 2009, but he wasn't at his offensive best when it came to his pool rankings, finishing 101st in the league and only 6th among defenders. I would look for some improvement next year. Rounding out the defense corps was a good list of players, Rob Blake (45 points in 73 GP), Christian Ehrhoff (42 points in 77 GP) and Marc-Eduoard Vlasic (36 points in 82 GP). All three had very good supportive seasons.

2010 Season Outlook
With Nabokov, Thornton, Marleau and Boyle, it's hard not to think that the Sharks won't be a contender once again. The team will be keeping a lot of it's core players, thanks to having them signed on already, which should make for some reasonable depth to start out with. Some pieces are more than likely going to change before training camp, but how many times will it take before the Sharks don't disappoint anyone in the playoffs?

ForwardsDefenseGoaltenders
Joe ThorntonDan BoyleEvgeni Nabokov
Patrick MarleauChristian Ehrhoff
Devin SetoguchiMarc-Eduoard Vlasic
Joe PavelskiBrad Lukowich
Milan MichalekDoug Murray
Jonathan Cheechoo
Jody Shelley

The Sharks should consider themselves in some salary cap difficulty, as they don't have a great deal of room to put anyone of much value in past the players that they have signed on already. Currently, the Sharks have 13 players signed onto their roster at an approximate salary cap hit of $46.8 million, just under $10 million from the 2009 salary cap. Now, this leaves them with a number less than $10 million to sign 10 players, which doesn't sound too bad, but all they will be getting is depth players.

Of course, the team will have some RFAs to deal with, which they will have to budget for going forward. Ryane Clowe is at the top of the list and he will have arbitration rights as well this summer. With his 22 goals last season, the Sharks may want to get him on for a long-term deal at a lower rate, just to see if he will stay, as arbitration may hurt them in the long run. Marcel Goc and Torrey Mitchell are also both up for RFA status this summer, but Mitchell will likely be the main priority of the two.

The aging veteran team in San Jose will get a big face lift, as there are a number of players hitting UFA status, some of which may have to contemplate retirement. Rob Blake, Brian Boucher, Mike Grier, Travis Moen, Tomas Plihal, Jeremy Roenick, Alex Semenov and Kent Huskins will all hit the list this summer and there will be many long thinking sessions of who to bring back and who to let go.

On the plus side, the Sharks do have another few young players looking to crack the line-up, which would greatly help the salary cap situation. Logan Couture ranks the highest among their prospects, according to the Hockey News, and he should get another long look in camp to help jump on to the Sharks roster sheet. Forwards Jamie McGinn and Lukas Kaspar had some looks with the Sharks this last season and may find themselves with a spot each for 2010.

A few of the faces may change with the Sharks this summer, but it shouldn't change the outlook towards the best players on the team. Thornton will be close to 100 points again, Nabokov should win 40 again, Boyle should be in the top 10 in defense scoring... the questions will be about the young players like Setoguchi, Pavelski, Michalek and Cheechoo, who could go any which way in 2010. They all should be reasonable picks through the year, but you may want to be weary of going too high with them.

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