Pool Outlook for Ottawa

There really shouldn't be any dispute as to how bad the Senators had to be with a line-up like theirs and to still make the playoffs. 2009 did bring a coaching change to the team, yet again, and the Senators could not make the move towards the playoffs this past year. The Sens finished 11th in the East, 10 points out of the last playoff spot. Unfortunately, there was a lot of underachieving on this club in 2009 and the team, not to mention all of the poolies who thought that Ottawa would be scoring again, were very disappointed.

The Senators were led in pool scoring by Daniel Alfredsson in 2009, for the second straight season. Alfredsson finished the year with 24 goals and 50 assists in 79 GP for the Senators, finishing one point better than Jason Spezza and two points better that Dany Heatley. Alfredsson was the more consistent of the big line players for the Senators, not scoring in bunches like the other two. Alfredsson's rank in pool scoring, 38th, was the lowest rank he had been in the last six seasons, being one of the most consistent players in the NHL in this decade.

The Senators didn't get very much depth scoring in 2009, as the drop off for pool points behind the big three is quite substantial. Heatley, ranked 46th, is the third highest ranked forward and then the fourth ranked forward on the team was Nick Foligno, who finished the season ranked 273rd. Foligno finished with 32 points in 81 GP, but that would have been the sort of numbers for a third line player all season, but he would have qualified as a second line player for the bulk of the year. Poolies also drops in production from Mike Fisher, Mike Comrie, Chris Kelly and Shean Donovan. You may want to stay away from Ottawa depth forwards until the middle of the season, when you know that they have re-gained their scoring touch.

On defense, the Senators got an average year from Filip Kuba, 40 points in 71 GP, while they bulked up their defensive scoring by acquiring Chris Campoli, 30 points in 76 GP, around the trade deadline. Both of these defenders have some marketability for your pool team next season, but again, the drop off of talent goes down quite far after those two players. Young defenders, Brendan Bell, Alex Picard and Brian Lee had all made appearances with the big club during the year, which does bode well for jobs next season, but a wait-and-see attitude should be taken on these three as well.

The goaltending through 2009 was definitely cause for concern as well. At the beginning of the season, Martin Gerber was going to get his shot at taking over the number one job, but didn't do so well there. Alex Auld, the signed back-up in the off-season, then began to pick up some starts. The demotion of Gerber allowed Brian Elliot to come in and get an abundant amount of starts, but then it was Auld who finished the year in net for the Sens, in what was a bumpy road, altogether. Both Auld and Elliot were the two goalies who finished the year with the big club and both finished with 16 wins and 1 shutout, for 34 points a piece. Auld did see almost 800 more minutes in the net during the year, which makes Elliot's achievement a little bit better.

2010 Season Outlook
The biggest question you'll ask yourself now will be, 'how will the Senators improve enough to make the playoffs?' Well, the team has already made some changes, including picking up Pascal Leclaire from the Blue Jackets at the trade deadline, so the goaltending issue has been addressed. Other question marks, like scoring depth, may be a challenge this summer, but one that is possible to overcome.

Forwards	Defense	Goaltenders
Daniel Alfredsson	Filip Kuba	Alex Auld
Jason Spezza	Chris Campoli	Pascal Leclaire
Dany Heatley	Chris Phillips
Nick Foligno	Alexandre Picard
Mike Fisher	Brian Lee
Chris Kelly	Anton Volchenkov
Jarkko Ruutu	Christoph Schubert
Jesse Winchester	Jason Smith
Shean Donovan

As you can probably tell, the Senators have a very full portfolio of players, with an abundance of defenders heading into the 2010 season. If the team can add four more forwards, they would be completely in business. As of right now, the team has 19 players (9 forwards, 8 defense and 2 goalies) for a salary cap hit of approximately $49.2 million. This leaves them in great shape to add some reasonable depth at a reasonable price next season.

The Senators do have some free agency still to deal with, but this will likely mean that the team will be active in the off-season to unload some talent to make room for other talent, especially to fill key gaps. Brian Elliot and Brendan Bell head the list of top RFAs on the team, but since the team is already deep at their positions, if they can accept two-way deals, the team could be alright here, but I'm sure they both want to be up with the club full-time, so they could end up as trade bait.

In the UFA department, Mike Comrie returns to the list, as he's only been signed on to 1-year deals of late. Comrie's reappearance in Ottawa could be extended with a new deal this year, as he could help with the depth scoring woes, but that remains unclear. Chris Neil also sits on the UFA fence heading into the summer, but attempts to re-sign him have been difficult for management, who maybe resigned to losing him this summer.

Of course, the top rated prospect, according to the Hockey News, is a defenseman for the Senators. Erik Karlsson, the team's first rounder from last summer, should bring a little more swing to the team when he makes the jump, but it might still be another season before that happens. The Senators don't have much for bluechip forwards heading into 2010, which should be something that the team can address with a good first round pick this summer. Otherwise, it will be a summer where they'll have to move a defenseman or two to get some talent onto the team right away.

The Senators have plenty of work to do, but the move for Pascal Leclaire makes them a reasonable pool team going forward. The old addage of playing more confident when you know you have a good goalie behind you may seriously come into play in the 2010 season. Leclaire does have the talent to give more confidence to his teammates and could give guys like Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly a little more confidence to make better plays. The addition of Chris Campoli to the backline does improve them greatly going into next season and I think he could be one of the better sleepers heading into the year. The Sens should have enough to make the playoffs now, if everything falls into place like I've drawn it out.