Monday, June 29, 2015

An immediate Impact in the Hockey Pool?



The 2015 NHL Entry Draft is supposed to be a "generational" draft, where the class is supposed to be exceptional from top to bottom. We won't know for 10 years or so, just how exceptional this class really is, but for us hockey poolies, we are more worried about the now, more than the what has happened.

Since there are some rumblings about winning money for your rookies next season, I think there is no better time to start dissecting what the rookie classes have done already and what the Connor McDavid-Jack Eichel led class might do in the upcoming season.

The 2014 class didn't look like a bad one on paper, but only one player taken in that draft played an entire season, the number one pick overall, Florida defenseman Aaron Ekblad.  Ekblad had an incredible year, voted upon as the Calder Trophy winner, after a 39-point season from the blueline.  Only two other players had a cup of coffee in the league from the 2014 draft, Boston's David Pastrnak played in 46 games, had 27 points, and Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers, he played in 37 games with 9 points, before heading back to juniors.

The 2016 Calder Trophy race could be full of 2014 draftees, like Sam Reinhart in Buffalo, Sam Bennett in Calgary, Michael Dal Colle on Long Island and/or Jake Virtanen of the Canucks.  All top players taken last year, all could turn pro.

The 2013 draft class had a little bit more traction in year one, as the 2014 season featured four full-time players for their NHL clubs, led by Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado, Sean Monahan in Calgary, Valeri Nichushkin in Dallas and Seth Jones in Nashville.  Florida's Alexander Barkov, Carolina's Elias Lindholm and Buffalo's Rasmus Ristolainen featured well in the year as well, getting their cups of coffee.

We are still waiting on Arizona's Max Domi, Winnipeg's Josh Morrissey and Detroit's Anthony Mantha from this class as well, possibly making a run at the trophy as well.

The lockout-shortened 2013 season made for some late debut's for an NHL career, but there was some new full-time help in that 2012 draft class.  Edmonton's Nail Yakupov and Montreal's Alex Galchenyuk, each registered a 48-game season, while Buffalo's Mikhail Grigorenko and New Jersey's Steffan Matteau got their long-ish looks.  It was a short season to pick and choose the young players, but a few did make their mark.

Speaking of the Oilers, they acquired the 4th overall pick in that draft, who still has his rookie status, defenseman Griffin Reinhart, he has yet to make an impression on the NHL.  Defensemen come around a bit longer, so it could be getting close to his time now.  Tampa Bay's Slater Koekkoek is also in the same boat, coming along on the blueline, so watch out for him too.

Since I have the data handy, let's have a quick peek at the 2011 draft class as well.  Four 1st round picks jumped in with at least 62 games in the 2012 season, Gabriel Landeskog of the Avalanche, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Oilers, Sean Couturier of the Flyers and Adam Larsson of the Devils all played the majority of the year.  A 5th round pick in Chicago's Andrew Shaw played in 37 games and look at him now.

Are we still waiting for anyone in this class?  The highest pick with rookie status still is Colorado's Duncan Siemens, the 11th overall pick, still can play for the Calder Trophy in 2016, as he is still 21 years old today.

There are plenty of possibilities for the 2015 draft class and with the lack of increase in the salary cap ceiling, there may be an increasing need for some entry-level talent on some NHL rosters, as they could deal with all the performance bonuses after the year, if they were to go over the cap ceiling.  Just how many of these kids will make their NHL clubs?  You would have to think that the top two are going to be locks, it will be a game of hit-and-miss, as we go down the line.

Don't get your hopes up too high on the 2015 class, as there is still plenty of talent that is coming in late or undrafted from the NCAA, which could be better bets for rookie points.

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