Pool Outlook for New York

Things seemed to really be coming together for the 2014 Eastern Conference champions, as they were short of winning the Stanley Cup, losing to the Los Angeles Kings.  For the most part, the team added very little, tooled around in their dressing room and then added parts at the trade deadline.

The Rangers won the President's Trophy with the league's best regular season record, had a reasonable first round draw against a hurting Pittsburgh Penguins club and then had a good test against a Washington Capitals team, which took them to seven games.

Unfortunately for the Rangers, they were bested by a Tampa Bay Lightning team, in seven games, which just a had a little bit more moxie and maybe even a little bit more energy than the Rangers, not to mention a goalie who was playing at the top of his game, when he was able to post a win.

The Rangers formula did seem to be very strong, they had one of the best goalies in the league, definitely one of the best top six blueline and an offense that was quick on the forecheck, with the ability to score in some key moments.  However, it was that offense that was drawing some blanks in the playoffs, which led to a couple of their losses, while the Lightning was able to solve their top end defense in a couple of wins as well.  It wasn't the formula that was the problem, they just didn't have the solution to putting down that young Lightning team.

At the hockey pool draft last September, only 10 Rangers were taken to start the season, which seems awfully low for the team that eventually won the President's Trophy for having the best record in the league.  However, when the season was over and done with, the Rangers had 14 players on active pool rosters and no Rangers were dropped at the end of the year.

Can the New York Rangers survive without Henrik Lundqvist?  This guy is tops of their list more often than not and the 2015 season was no different.  Even with a vascular injury, after taking a puck to the throat, causing him to miss 24 games, he was still able to post a 30-win season, adding 5 shutouts and an assist for a 71-point season, good enough for 29th overall in pool scoring, 13th among all goalies.  No one wants to see a scary injury like a vascular injury or a puck to the throat of anyone, but when it happened in the year, provided a rest for the Rangers' number one and he jumped back into the game refreshed and ready for the long playoff run.

So, how does a team still win the President's Trophy when their number one goalie goes down for more than a quarter of the season?  They have some quality behind him.  Enter Cam Talbot.  Talbot posted a 20-win season and was the 24th best goalie in pool scoring, better than some regular number ones who played a whole year.  It's hard to think this would happen again with Lundqvist in the crease, but the Rangers can rest assured they are fine, if the unforeseeable happens again.

Depth at the forward position sure helped the Rangers, as eight players were good enough to be pool worthy in 2015, led by Rick Nash and his 42-goal, 69-point season, which was good enough for 34th overall among all players, 20th among forwards.  Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan, Martin St. Louis, Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes and Carl Hagelin ranged from 60 to 35 points in the season and it had a lot to do with their size and speed, which made them more dangerous than their overall scoring numbers.  None of the team's top forwards were really blistering the scoresheet, but they all contributed when the team needed them most and they put together a solid season.

The Rangers were another team where their top six defensemen were all pool-worthy and that comes as no surprise here, as when they managed to acquire Keith Yandle from the Coyotes at the deadline, they became the most impressive group of players on any blueline in the league.  Yandle finished 10th among all defenders with 52 points in 84 games between Arizona and the Big Apple, while Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Dan Boyle, Marc Staal and Dan Girardi all managed to pick up 20 or more points in the year.  It will be interesting to see how this blueline shapes up next season, for sure!

2016 Pool Outlook

For the most part, the core of this group is signed on for the 2016 season, so there is only the concern that a lot of the last four teams will face and that's the amount of rest they get in the off-season.  The Rangers went to the Cup Finals in 2014 and then to the Conference Finals in 2015, which ends up being a lot of hockey.  On the plus side, Lundqvist had plenty of rest in the middle of the season, so he may not be as tested as some.  I think the outlook is still rather positive, especially given the fact that there really isn't anyone to necessarily count on for big points, except for the goalie, but the team scoring, as a whole, should help to remedy that.

There are a few spots that may stay open for a little while, when it comes to the Rangers in 2016, which we'll touch on in the free agency section below, so when we look at the Rangers, we'll see that there is a lack of real depth in the cupboards.  The Rangers dealt some of their best prospects in the Yandle deal, so they may not have the best replacements in place, but a kid like Ryan Bourque, who made his NHL debut in 2015, may get another look.  I will wait for the prospect tourneys to really get a better feel for the Rangers' system, but I am not holding high expectations.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

The Rangers may have some decisions to make, if the salary cap ceiling is only going to go up around the 5% mark, because there are a few names that will be looking for a raise and they aren't exactly brimming with space between the top of the pile and the ceiling.  Sure, you can say that the Rangers have 32 players signed on at a cap hit of $70.3 million, you can take nine players away to open a few million, but that won't get it done next season.

Derek Stepan leads the RFA group and he is in an elite group of forwards at his age group and scoring level, which could earn him in and around the $6 million range in a new deal.  That is very dangerous to the Rangers' well-being.  J.T. Miller and Jesper Fast will also require new deals, both players could make the jump into better minutes, if Stepan can't be signed.

Then a decision will have to be made about Martin St. Louis, who now leads the team to the open market, but at 39 years old, he could just as easily hang them up and not become a huge issue for the team.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

Well, as a part of the Martin St. Louis/Ryan Callahan deal from the 2014 season, the Rangers are still without a 1st round pick, as the Lightning still hold on to the pick.  The Rangers are likely kicking themselves a little, since they lost to the Lightning in the Conference Finals and the Lightning have their pick, which improved to 28th overall with the Conference Finals loss.  The Rangers won't pick until their pick in the 2nd round.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

I think there is a distinct possibility that the Rangers won't make the playoffs next season. In fact, I think that will be my prediction, given the parameters that are in front of them going into this off-season. The overhaul will be a difficult one and no matter how good Lundqvist, McDonagh, Staal or St. Louis play next season, they could struggle to score enough goals to win those tight games. I won't say that the carpet comes out from underneath them completely, but they will be in the midst of the wild card race and I think there are other teams in the East that could feast on their lack of off-season prowess. The only saving grace that could turn this prediction around is if GM Glen Sather manages to make that move for Nash that lands a quality player that can keep the franchise on the same path, but he'd have to trade rape someone to do it.

Hindsight... what a wonderful thing, am I right?  Of course, I should have added, "what if Nash manages to turn his career around and score 40+ goals again?"  I would say that I had the Rangers as my biggest and boldest prediction of the series from last Summer and given what had happened in the playoffs last year, I would still stand by it, but maybe, just maybe, I would add that other parameter, because since the Rangers ended up with a 40-goal scorer on their team, they were definitely a different team this season.

The Rangers had a lot of eggs in the 2015 basket, but certainly not all of their eggs were in there, since they have a pretty good core to work from.  The Rangers have some key decisions to make for their side for the 2016 season, but it will be a combination of who will re-sign, which youngster will make the jump up and how the team fares both in the trade and free agent market.  New York will be busy, they still have their window open, but management will have a lot to do with whether or not this team improves or regresses.  My position today, shortly after their defeat, the Rangers do suffer that regression, albeit a small one.  The Summer will be tough, the free agents will be hard to re-sign, the markets are running thin, so scoring will end up being their biggest issue next season.  They will win a lot in the regular season again, but their playoffs will end in disaster.