Pool Outlook: Arizona

I don't think it would be fair to say that the expectations on the Arizona Coyotes was all that high, going into the 2015 season, but somehow, they went over and above to disappoint.

With so much talent on their roster at the start of training camp and some reasonable youth possibly breaking through, the Coyotes should have been in the mix for the playoff conversation, one would think.  Instead, the system on the ice failed the team, the veterans were shipped off and left with a few building blocks still in place on the ice, the Coyotes fell down to 29th overall in the NHL standings and their value in the hockey pool diminished substantially.

This off-season carries a lot of intrigue, as the Coyotes had announced before the trade deadline, that they would be in the rebuild works and some of the moves that they made did reflect that mind set.  Some young player acquisitions should make this rebuild a little smoother than some others we've seen in recent history and the prospect of a top three pick in the draft had to appeal as well.

When Keith Yandle was moved to the Big Apple at the deadline, it quickly became Oliver Ekman-Larsson's team and he did quite well with the new mantle.  Ekman-Larsson led the Coyotes in scoring at the end of the season, ranking 23rd among defensemen in points, but 1st among blueliners in goals with 23.  Overall, he finished with 43 points, but given that he only had 20 assists, it shows that the rest of their team didn't have much of a push from any other position to help him out.

After the team was torn apart, there wasn't much left to look for points from, especially from the forwards.  The Coyotes only had four forwards in the top 184 (23 pool teams times 8 forwards per team), led by Sam Gagner, who had 15 goals and 41 points in 81 games in his first season in Arizona.  Shane Doan (36 points), Martin Erat (32 points) and the well-travelled Mark Arcobello (31 points with four teams) were the best players up front.  How many of those forwards would you even consider next season?

Beyond Ekman-Larsson, there was nothing much left to speak from.  There was one other defenseman taken in the draft this past season, taken in the Waiver Draft, and that was Michael Stone, who finished 262nd in blueline scoring (18 points in 81 games), well off the pace of the top 92 defensemen.  Scoring depth from the back end took a kicking with the departure of Yandle.

With very little scoring help, there's very little that the defensive system, that head coach Dave Tippett employs, could do to help the goaltending for the Coyotes.  The usual stalwart, Mike Smith, finished 38th among all crease keepers with 29 points this season, well off his annual expectation.

2016 Pool Outlook

The Coyotes said that they are going to go through a full-scale overhaul of their roster, which will call for patience.  I have a feeling that the Coyotes, if you're a risk-taker, may be an okay place to dive into some younger talent, but without a great deal of veterans to help out their cause, I would be shying away from their goaltending and their depth scoring.  I believe a lot of that thinking will be applied to how the 2016 projections fall.

As a risk-taker, you may be rewarded next season, as there is going to be a movement towards having money awarded for the most points from a rookie in the 2016 season.  The early duo of Anthony Duclair, who played in New York this past season, and Max Domi, who shone brightly for Canada at the World Juniors, will be interesting players come training camp and their speed and size should help turn the corner for the Coyotes, maybe a little quicker than some of these other teams.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Restricted free agency will be where we start for the Coyotes, who have a few notable names to look after this Summer, including Mikkel Boedker, who was having a great 2015 season, until his injury through the back half of the year.  Mark Arcobello is also an RFA this Summer, while defenseman John Moore, who didn't look too out of place there, needs a new deal.  Maybe to a lesser extent, defensemen Klas Dahlbeck (a deadline acquisition) and Brandon Gormley may perk some interest as well.

Martin Erat is the most notable UFA this Summer and I could see him taking a look to see what is out in a shallow free agent pool, weighing his options against a leadership role in the desert.

After the absolute tear down this season, the Coyotes are the third team to have a ton of room under the projected cap ceiling with all of their signed players accounted for in this count.  Right now, I have the Coyotes with 23 signed bodies, plus one prospect without a cap value reported and they still have $32.7 million in cap space, under the ceiling of $71.7 million.  They will have money to throw around, just to hit the cap floor.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

The Coyotes currently hold the 3rd overall pick and the Chicago Blackhawks pick, which could be quite high, but with that 3rd pick, they could make some real noise with it.  I think with both picks, Arizona goes after some scoring with the youth movement.  If this team wants to move this rebuild in the right direction, they give their proven goaltending some run support and someone for Ekman-Larsson to pass to.  With the 3rd overall pick, I see the Coyotes going after Lawson Crouse, a larger forward, who had to score without some very credible help.  There appears to be some real depth in this draft, so they should be able to get something good with that next pick, wherever it falls.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

I believe that the 2015 Arizona Coyotes will have their success measured against how much they spend against the salary cap. If the Coyotes are not going to spend more money this year, I can't see them getting much better in the standings. The foundation of the team is solid and should be able to keep the status quo if nothing is done in the Summer, but that can't be where the Coyotes want to be at this time next year. The Coyotes want to have had a good playoff run, if not continuing in it at this time. The Coyotes have solid management and can spend money wisely, but they may still need to make a gamble of some sort and that may be moving on from some of the unrestricted free agents and finding new blood to take their place. It will be difficult, which leads me to believe that they will fall short of the playoffs again.

Well, if you're looking at what the team spent by the end of the year, you can understand that they didn't make the playoffs, although a lot of their last-minute budgetary decisions came at the trade deadline, where they off-loaded a bunch of cap hits and took on very little, which was spurred on by their lack of chances to make the playoffs.  The Coyotes did little in the off-season, losing more talent than they added, and it led to a coaching staff that fumbled with what they had left and goaltending that couldn't work with the defense they had in front.  This has all led to a rebuild philosophy, which will certainly have an effect on next year's prediction.

The easiest of predictions for the 2016 season will be that it will be another year outside of the playoffs for the Coyotes.  I think with the coaching staff that is in place, it will definitely temper some of the extreme talent that the Coyotes have in the wings, just because of the system that they play.  I can't see Domi or Duclair succeeding in the rookie scoring race with the group that they have in place, as they will be relied upon a lot in their own end.  The coaching staff there has also been very guarded against adding that much youth to their lineup, so it would definitely put a lot of people in an uncomfortable position, if everything was to stay the same on the bench.  It isn't that Tippett isn't a good coach, rather, as a systems coach, you're going to rein in the youth and play a lot of defense.  Maybe a coaching change is in order for this rebuild?