Pool Outlook for Toronto

At the beginning of the 2015 season, there was some reasonable expectation that the Toronto Maple Leafs wouldn't be bad team, per say, rather they should be in the playoff mix.  They finally had a goalie pegged to be their number one, they had a top line that was looked to for a good portion of their offense and a blueline, which was beginning to look rather respectable with a combination of youth and veteran leadership.  Still, at the end of the day, the team collapsed under the weight of whatever expectation there were.

Injuries were kept to a reasonable amount, attitude problems were amplified and a coaching change was made in the mid-season, which certainly didn't help matters much either.  Before it was all said and done, changes were being made at all levels, the 27th place finish in the regular season standings led to sweeping changes below the team's new president and the tear down is expected to sweep through the roster, likely at the NHL Entry Draft.

A pretty good indication of the expectations of the Leafs lie in the draft pool, as 13 players were picked up during the year, but three of them were dropped, likely due more to the fact that playing defense isn't taken into account in the hockey pool.

He was the face of the franchise and looked upon to carry this team going forward, but that just isn't the kind of guy Phil Kessel has grown into being, as he is a good scorer, leading the Leafs with 61 points in all 82 games, but he didn't actually lead the team in goals, only having 25 by the end of the year.  It really did appear that when the team finally admitted defeat in the season, that he really disappeared and the team sped up their descent in the standings.  It is one of the reasons why he is one of the likely candidates for the mass exodus of the core of the group.

By the end of the year, the Leafs only had three other forwards that would be considered pool-worthy, according to our roster of teams this past year, as they didn't really give Kessel much support in the scoring department.  James Van Riemsdyk had 56 points in all 82 games, Tyler Bozak had 49 points in 82 games and Nazem Kadri rounded them all out with 39 points in 73 games, after suspensions.  The forwards are going to be a different looking group next season or so we're being told, so hold your decisions for next year until July.

Three defensemen being pool worthy isn't a bad thing, but when their veterans, who they looked to for defensive support, go down with injury, there tends to be a turn in the amount of offense your team gets.  Morgan Rielly and Dion Phaneuf led all Leaf blueliners with 29 points, ranking in the top 60 of defensemen, while Jake Gardiner had 24 points to help out as much as he could.

In net, Jonathan Bernier was given the ball to run with and he took most of the minutes, but only could do so much with them.  Bernier finished with 47 points, which was good enough for 132nd overall in pool scoring and 26th among all goalies.  He only managed to average 0.9 points per 60 minutes of ice time, which certainly is a telling statistic about how well he performed overall.

2016 Pool Outlook

Pool confidence may come in pretty low at next year's pool draft and rightly so.  This team, being ripped apart in their forecast for the Summer, will need to be rebuilt and who knows how that's going to work, since they don't have a new General Manager in place, by the time this blog post drops.  Who stays?  Who goes?  We all probably have an idea, but that doesn't exactly give us confidence in the scoring/winning ability of this team for next season.

A rebuild year might mean there will be a larger focus on the team's young talent in the reserves, as there will be a lot of pressure on Swedish forward William Nylander, who by all accounts, had an okay year in Europe, before coming back to the AHL before the end of the season.  One name that did stand out a little bit during the 2015 season was defenseman Stuart Percy, who played in nine games and had a few points.  He's another one that might get a longer look in camp, when the team gets split apart.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Clearing names from the books will help the Leafs with their flexibility in the Summer, but frankly, there isn't a big name on their books that is poised for unrestricted free agency.  Most players on the list were bottom six dwellers for the club and don't have any bearing on the hockey pools, no matter the depth.

Jonathan Bernier and Nazem Kadri highlight the RFA crop this year and they will likely be heavily scrutinized by whoever comes in to become new management for the team.  I could see Bernier staying with the club with a new deal, but with all the problems that Kadri had in the year, they may consider cutting bait with him and giving him a fresh start elsewhere.

Even with some ugly contracts on the book for next season, the Leafs still don't appear to be in terrible shape, against a $71.1 million cap ceiling.  If Nathan Horton never plays again, that cap space opens up through LTIR, the team looks to deal Kessel and Phaneuf for added savings, while some of their other depth players aren't paid too extravagantly, at this point.  The Leafs could start their rebuild right away, but like their brass explains, it will need a lot of patience.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

I'm sure whoever is left in the Leafs organization had their fingers and toes crossed for the draft lottery, but that didn't exactly pan out in their favour.  They do, however, hold the Predators pick in the opening round, which can offer them some flexibility in who they should take in the draft.

With the 4th overall pick, adding to their blueline of Rielly and Gardiner should be Noah Hannifin, making sure they add the best defender in the class, as they could easily add a little bit more punch from the forward position with their next pick, wherever it may land.  Adding to their back end would give the team a great standing position, very much like how Nashville really came to being a regular playoff team.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

As for a prediction, I don't see the Maple Leafs challenging for a division title just yet and all of their shortcomings that I have mentioned would be the reason why. I do see them in the middle of the Wild Card fight, with the core group that I had mentioned earlier. If the Leafs are able to sort out some reasonable free agents, control some of their neutral zone issues and continue to press the puck as much as they can, I can see the Leafs making the playoffs again. Yes, they will also be a pretty good team to pick hockey pool players from, which is the main focus of these posts, so we'll leave it at that.

My faith in their rebuilding youth was not rewarded in my prediction for the 2015 season.  I didn't see the collapse of this team happening, thinking that Bernier would be more of a rock than he was and that some of the support that was coming up for the Leafs, would take the pressure off of Kessel and Phaneuf.  Rather, everything fell down upon them and they were not able to hold this team up and there were definitely a lot more issues at hand, than the public may have seen.  This one was a complete miss for me.

Can the Leafs turn it around in 2016?  No.  The simple prediction, I suppose.  No, if they tear down this team, they will have to either retool this team for a mediocre year, but with the impression that I'm getting from management, they may be very comfortable with a tanking year in 2016, although the prize for tanking or the lottery will not nearly be as kind of them.  I fully expect the Leafs to play a lot of youth in their system and offer some opportunity for ice-time to guys who may not see much elsewhere.  Free agency won't be kind to them this year, so the real indicator of how well they'll do in the season is in the trade market.  Good luck!