Pool Outlook for Arizona

The Phoenix Coyotes are no more... well, the Phoenix part any ways.  In just a few days, they will be known as the Arizona Coyotes, but that's really the only thing that is going to change for the team going forward.  The new ownership group wanted to make sure that they brought the brand of the entire state to the team, since they don't actually play in Phoenix, it actually makes a little more sense.

How did the Coyotes fare in 2014?  Boy, they were sure close to that last playoff spot in the Western Conference, finishing as the first team out of the picture, only two points back of the Dallas Stars, who had the last wild card spot.  The Coyotes had to rely on other teams, as they didn't keep destiny in their own hands, thanks to a schedule that didn't balance in their favour.

Under Dave Tippett, the Coyotes remain as a solid team that continues to stay in the playoff conversation, despite not making it in the last two seasons.  Tippett took the team to the Conference Finals in the 2012 season and if they were to make it into the Spring Dance again, there is no reason why they couldn't make that push again, as the team thrives as underdogs.

The team in 2014 did struggle to find some consistent offense, which was likely the biggest reason why they didn't make the playoffs, but a few tweaks to the roster for the coming year and they should be back in the conversation.

The 2014 leader in pool points for the Coyotes was goaltender Mike Smith, who went to Sochi as the number three goalie for Team Canada.  Smith chalked up the 6th-best minute total in the NHL, playing in 62 of the 82 games for the Coyotes, but only came away with 27 wins.  He did however provide some offense, getting credit for a goal and 2 assists to go along with his 3 shutouts, finishing with 64 points on the season.  That was good enough for 48th overall in pool scoring, a late 2nd round pick by this year's draft standards, 15th among goaltenders.  Sure, Smith is the backbone for the team, but he can only do so much for a team that ranked 8th in goals for in the West and carried a negative goal-differential.

The team also got some reasonable back-up goaltending from Thomas Greiss, who came over in free agency last Summer from the San Jose Sharks.  Greiss won 10 games with 2 shutouts for 24 points, but was only good enough to be 51st among goalies, not really emerging as a good pool option, thanks to a lack of minutes played.

The next best players on the Coyotes were their blueliners, which likely says something about the team and why they didn't make the playoffs, going back to the goals for argument.  Keith Yandle was 2nd on the team in pool scoring, finishing with 53 points in all 82 games, good enough for 7th in defenseman scoring in 2014.  Oliver Ekman-Larsson finished 15th in defenseman scoring with 44 points in 80 games, which gives Arizona two solid scoring threats from the blueline and both will be hot commodities in the draft next season.  Below those two, the Coyotes didn't get much of a push, but some of their younger prospects did see some time, so there is some potential to come.

Up front, the Coyotes had five players in the top 100 in forwards scoring, but none of them finished in the top 75, so there was a serious lack of punch.  Radim Vrbata and Mikkel Boedker finished 76th and 77th with 51 points each, which isn't nearly enough for this team to push their way into the playoffs.  Shane Doan (47 points in 69 games), Mike Ribeiro (47 points in 80 games) and Antoine Vermette (45 points in 82 games) round out the top five forwards.  All five should be a bit better, but each of them needs a little bit more help to achieve that and that should be the management team's first priority in the Summer.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Coyotes, much like the Predators the day before, are going to be known more as a team that is built from the back end and the better players will either come from the blueline or the crease.  I don't think there is any harm in ranking Mike Smith, Keith Yandle or Oliver Ekman-Larsson in top end positions, since they will be the ones that will have the biggest benefits for your pool team.  The forwards are going to be a bunch that add depth to your pool team, because there is no one really there to carry it yet.  If Arizona can make some head way in the free agent market, maybe we would change our tune a little.

The organization may say differently, but there really isn't a great deal on the shelf for young talent on this team and what they do have may not be NHL-ready or mature enough to play in the restricted/responsible system that head coach Dave Tippett has for them.  Forward Max Domi, was a 1st round pick in last year's draft and did well in the OHL in 2014, but he may have a tough time breaking through.  Blueliners Connor Murphy and Brandon Gormley saw time in the NHL in the 2014 season, but spent most of their time in the AHL, as they draw closer to a regular job.  Neither figure into the 2015 conversation for your pool team, but you should keep an eye on them.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency will see their top forward scorer head to the open market, if the team cannot extend a deal to him before July 1st.  Radim Vrbata heads a list of players that should't raise the eyebrows of many poolies, but the franchise may want to have another look at Thomas Greiss, David Moss, Jeff Halpern or Paul Bissonnette.

Restricted free agents like Brandon McMillan or Andy Miele may get some serious consideration, but the list of young players in need of deals isn't that impressive either.  There doesn't appear to be much to swing the numbers on paper in their favour.

The Coyotes are under new ownership, but I haven't seen any indication that this will make them a bigger spending team in the 2015 season, as the team has been known more as budget team through the NHL ownership days.  Currently, I have the Coyotes locked in with 15 players on their roster, nine forwards, five defensemen and a goalie, at a cap hit of $51.5 million.  This leaves about $19.6 million in the bank, something they could easily spend for the last eight roster spots they need to fill.

Scoring is at a premium for these Coyotes and they need more help and in a hurry.  One name that pops up as a great candidate to become a Coyote would be forward Brendan Perlini, who played for Niagara in the OHL.  Perlini already has a fairly filled-out frame at 6'2" and 205 pounds and is known for his keen goal-scoring skill.  If the Coyotes can use some of their playmaking talents with a natural goal scorer like Perlini, he may be able to pay off immediately, but there are some questions about his conditioning, not anything that couldn't be solved with a solid off-season.

There is little doubt that the Coyotes will be a tough team to play against again in the 2015 season, but they are also going to be a team that plays on a wafer thin board of confidence and things can go South for them, as quickly as they can get back and defend their own end.  More consistent scoring is the going to be the name of the game in the off-season and it will be the tipping point between a good year and another year trying to find more pieces to get them into the playoffs.

I believe that the 2015 Arizona Coyotes will have their success measured against how much they spend against the salary cap.  If the Coyotes are not going to spend more money this year, I can't see them getting much better in the standings.  The foundation of the team is solid and should be able to keep the status quo if nothing is done in the Summer, but that can't be where the Coyotes want to be at this time next year.  The Coyotes want to have had a good playoff run, if not continuing in it at this time.  The Coyotes have solid management and can spend money wisely, but they may still need to make a gamble of some sort and that may be moving on from some of the unrestricted free agents and finding new blood to take their place.  It will be difficult, which leads me to believe that they will fall short of the playoffs again.