Thursday, June 19, 2014

Pool Outlook for Chicago

The 2013 Stanley Cup Champions were only one round away from having the chance to be back-to-back Cup champs, something that hasn't happened in over a decade.  Blackhawks management has done exceptionally well to keep this team at the pinnacle of the NHL, losing only to the eventual Cup champs in the 2014 season, the Los Angeles Kings.

It was a pretty good year for the Blackhawks, considering they didn't win at the end of the year, as they finished 3rd in the Central Division, finishing the season with less regulation losses than both Colorado and St. Louis, but earning more of those bonus points from overtime/shootout losses.  The team managed to stay in most of their matches throughout the season, playing in extra time more times than they possibly would have preferred.

Sure, the Blackhawks didn't dominate in the regular season, but some injury issues through the season forced their hands a little, but the team was active in the trade market, making a couple of key moves at the deadline and they were able to be the team that they wanted to be in the playoffs, the most important time of the year.

To no one's surprise, the Blackhawks were also a very popular team to choose from in the hockey pools and some of those injuries did hinder the point production from some of the team's best players, but that is no reason for anyone to discount the team, when they are applying their rankings for next season's hockey pool draft.

Playing in all 82 games has its benefits, when you want to be the best player in pool scoring on your NHL team, as that was the biggest reason why Patrick Sharp finished atop the rankings for the Blackhawks, scoring 34 goals and 78 points for the title.  Sharp finished 20th overall in pool scoring, which would have placed him in as a 1st round pick in this year's draft, according to this year's numbers.  He was 12th among forwards and just a general player for the team as well.  Sharp's ranking is the best he's seen, as he previously topped out at 37th overall in 2011.

Up front, the Blackhawks had a total of five forwards in the top 100 in positional scoring, including Sharp.  The dynamic duo of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews finished 2-3 in Blackhawks forward scoring in the year, as Kane had 69 points in 69 games and Toews had 68 points in 76 games.  Both had some minor knocks during the year, but they each posted some reasonable totals otherwise.  Marian Hossa 30 goals and 60 points and rookie Brandon Saad finished with 47 points, ranking 95th among forwards.  The Blackhawks depth up front was very good and has the foundation to keep going in the 2015 season.

The defenders were no slouches in the offense department, as Duncan Keith led the way, finishing 2nd among blueliners with 6 goals and 61 points, good enough for 58th overall.  Brent Seabrook scored at half a point-per-game, picking up 41 points in all 82 games, followed by Nick Leddy at 31 points in all 82 games and rounded out by Niklas Hjalmarsson with 26 points in 81 games.  All four defenders finished in the top 100 in that position as well.

Goaltending was solid for the Hawks in 2014, as they had two regular goalies averaging 1.2 points for every 60 minutes they were in the crease.  Corey Crawford won 32 of his 56 starts last season, good enough for 69 points, 12th among all goalies.  His back-up, Antti Raanta, won 13 out of his 22 starts and that was good enough for 29 points, 41st among goalies.

2015 Pool Outlook

The top five forwards, the top four defensemen and their number one goalie are already locked in for the 2015 season and if it wasn't for fatigue on the ice, I'm sure these guys could take on most guys themselves.  Needless to say, the outlook does look good for next season, as all the usual suspects will still be around, they'll have a few of their key depth players hanging around, then it will be a matter of depth beyond that.

Highly-touted Finnish forward Teuvo Teravainen will get the longest look, as he did manage to get three regular season games in before the end of the year, failing to register a point.  Teravainen will join some of the big rookies to get consideration for hockey pool teams in the coming year and for those rookies that have teams already assigned to him, Teravainen should be hovering in the top three of many lists.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

It will be interesting to see what back-up goalie Antti Raanta will want with his restricted free agent negotiations, as he is the biggest of the bunch to look for new deals and as you'll see below, the Blackhawks are not playing with much space left.  Forward Ben Smith will also be looking for a new deal and his 14 goals and 26 points may not be afforded to be overlooked.

Forwards Michal Handzus and Peter Regin, defenseman Sheldon Brookbank and goalies Jason LaBarbera and Nikolai Khabibulin are all headed to unrestricted free agency and maybe only Brookbank gets a cheap deal out of the Blackhawks, helping out their depth on the blueline.

Heading into the NHL's silly season, the Blackhawks look fairly solid with 17 players signed on, including their entire core group, coming in at $65 million, approximately.  Now the projected cap is $71.1 million, but there are rumblings that the number could fall a bit, which would hurt the already hurting $6 million in space the Blackhawks have.  The Blackhawks will also have 2014 bonuses to contend with, which will hurt the team even further, something that will be explored in another blog post when the numbers arrive.

Looking at how far we've come in this draft, the Blackhawks will be picking from the 27th overall position and I think they are in line for a goaltender.  The top-ranked goaltender, Thatcher Demko, may get some serious consideration, due to the fact that the depth behind Corey Crawford doesn't exactly give me much confidence from a futures standpoint.  Crawford should be able to carry the Blackhawks for a few more seasons, at least, which may lead the team to look to their young players.  A future franchise goaltender at this point may go a long ways, as the team should be together for a while and they may see a couple goaltenders come and go in time for Demko to realize some potential in the NHL.

I don't think there is any shame in running out of gas, which is what, I think, happened to the Blackhawks in these playoffs.  Chicago had a lot of things going for them in the regular season and the playoffs, but they had played a boatload of hockey over the past four years and the drudgery of going through the whole process for 16 wins in back-to-back seasons has to be the hardest in sports.

Is it too early to bet against the Blackhawks?  I think so.  A solid rest in the off-season, then back to the rigors of the NHL training camps and the Blackhawks should be as good as new.  I don't think it would be out of the question to bank on a slow start, but they should be back to normal before too long.  I think the Blackhawks will manage their cap situation with grace, likely moving a piece like Kris Versteeg, if they can, and then adding some of their own homegrown talent to the mix.  I would imagine they'll be back in the Central Division race and back to challenging for a deep spot in the Western Conference playoffs.

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