Pool Outlook for Colorado

Worst in the Northwest Division in 2013 to Best in the Central Division in 2014 is the tag line of the season that the Colorado Avalanche had.

On the surface of that statement, it really boggles the mind that a team can do such a thing, especially given that the league did their realignment and you may have argued that the division they were moving into was going to be more difficult for a young, up and coming team like the Avalanche.  It was that rare occasion, when all the stars align, some of their marquee players matured enough into big roles and the team got a big boost from a special draft pick.

There is no question that the Colorado Avalanche are a young team and they still are, for the most part, which likely has a lot of poolies excited for the upcoming NHL season, but Avalanche fans got a taste of what is likely to come in their franchise's future, as their dynamic style was a lot for some of the league's more defensive teams to handle and that should scare these teams.

Sure, their 2014 playoff campaign ended a little early, but it wasn't without fireworks.  The Avalanche ran into a Minnesota Wild team in the opening round of the playoffs and the underdog division rivals, which everyone counted out at the start of the playoffs, played like they had nothing to lose and scratched and clawed their way through the Avalanche, killing some dreams and expectations.  If anything, this was a good learning experience for this team, who will likely go looking for some playoff experience for their depth, which will help these kids along in their path to glory.

Quite possibly the most improved player on the Avalanche team, which came around at the best time for the team, was goaltender Semyon Varlamov, who managed to carry the team on his shoulders.  Varlamov finished with an NHL-best 41 wins, adding 2 shutouts and 3 assists for 89 points in the hockey pool.  89 points was also a hockey pool best for goalies, as he ranked 1st among all the crease-minders and 2nd overall in hockey pool scoring, behind Sidney Crosby.  The 26-year old blossomed into the goaltender that everyone that had scouted him in his junior days said he would be, a dominating force.

2014 saw the swan song of another NHL great goalie, as it is expected that J-S Giguere has seen his last year with the club and he finished his career with a 26-point season, backing up the Russian starter.  Likely taking over Giguere's job is Reto Berra, who the Avalanche acquired from the Flames at the deadline and he finished with 18 points in limited work between the two teams.

The Avalanche's big five forwards were something to behold in the 2014 season.  All five of these guys finished in the top 75 of overall scoring and the top 50 in scoring among forwards.  There was a lot of firepower between them and this has the hype machine working overtime for the 2015 season.  Matt Duchene led the way with 23 goals and 70 points in 71 games (28th overall), followed by Gabriel Landeskog with 26 goals and 65 points in 81 games (45th), Ryan O'Reilly with 28 goals and 64 points in 80 games (46th), rookie Nathan MacKinnon had 24 goals and 63 points in all 82 games (50th) and finally, Paul Stastny had 25 goals and 60 points in 71 games (63rd).  The Avalanche would do well to have all five return, but there is a couple clouds of doubt out there that they will all come back.  More to come on this below.

On the blueline, the Avalanche had four of the top 100 defensemen in pool scoring, which added ample depth to their attack.  Erik Johnson was the best of the bunch, scoring 39 points in 80 games, followed closely by Tyson Barrie, who had 38 points in 64 games.  Barrie did have the better scoring rate, but was befallen by injury in the year, which kept his numbers down.  Two undrafted defenders came in with good seasons to round out the blueline notes, as Andre Benoit had 28 points in 79 games and Nick Holden had 25 points in 54 games.  Both have found a productive home in the NHL and are making teams wish they at least gave them a shot.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Colorado Avalanche have some work to do in this off-season to get their core group of 2014 back together for the 2015 season, but for the most part, they have the most important pieces already locked up and ready to go.  I don't think the Avalanche can afford not to have the whole core return for another season, at the very least, as they are really on to something there.  Nevertheless, if Paul Stastny leaves via unrestricted free agency, the Avalanche should have more than enough to keep the magic together, which makes their squad very pool-friendly.  Beware the sophomore jinx with Nathan MacKinnon, but Varlamov, Duchene and Landeskog should be pretty high on the priority list.

If you're looking to find someone in the next wave of young Avalanche players, you may have to look to the blueline.  The biggest name not to play for the Avalanche in the 2014 season is likely Duncan Siemens.  The 2011 1st round draft pick has a season with the Lake Erie Monsters in the AHL under his belt and should be ahead of a few of the team's other prospect defensemen.  Up front, they might be able to fill a role that was vacated in the off-season by Joey Hishon, who is a restricted free agent this Summer, but will likely be a priority to re-sign in July.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Speaking of other restricted free agents, the Avalanche have lots of work to do here.  Forward Ryan O'Reilly, fresh off a year that had an offer sheet signed with him, which will boost his cap hit in the 2015 season.  Much negotiation will be needed with O'Reilly, which may force the Avs' hand at possibly dealing the two-way forward.  Defenseman Tyson Barrie, who had a breakout year despite injury, will need a new deal and the Avalanche will likely look to bridge him before a long-term deal.  He may be a tough signing for Colorado this year as well.  Forward Jamie McGinn and defenseman Stefan Elliott will also need new deals this Summer.

As it was mentioned above, Paul Stastny is the most notable player to head to unrestricted free agency, if the Avalanche don't sort him out a new deal in the next couple weeks.  Stastny will be looking for a long-term deal and he is already coming off a deal that saw his cap hit at $6.6 million, which could be too rich for Colorado's blood, especially since he isn't the best forward on the team.  Defensemen Andre Benoit and Cory Sarich also need new deals, but they could be replaced by younger talent, if they don't re-sign.

By my estimation, thanks to ol' CapGeek, I have the Avalanche into the off-season with 16 players on their projected roster, which includes nine forwards, five defensemen and their goaltending duo in tow.  I have them in with $44.4 million against the projected $71.1 million projected salary cap ceiling, leaving them about $26.7 million for their seven open roster spots.  That will leave room for the likes of O'Reilly, Stastny and Barrie, but likely won't leave them much after that.  The Avalanche will have to find ways to spend their money wisely.

The Avalanche go from winning the 1st overall pick in the Entry Draft Lottery last season to winning the Central Division and ending up with the 23rd overall pick.  Since the draft class isn't quite as deep on the blueline, so the Avalanche will likely look to the forward group and by the look of some of the scouting reports, Czech centre/winger Jakub Vrana may be a huge pick-up for the team.  The kid is listed in both positions, depending on what you read and has an offensive upside to his game.  The Avalanche are already pretty deep down the middle, but if they can find some depth at wing, with a centre option, the team automatically gets better.

The only thing about a young team like the Avalanche, a team with so much promise and talent, is you have to beware of the weight of expectations.  Sure, there is the sophomore jinx that is applied to top end rookies, who have to deal with new expectations in their second full season, but for this team, as a whole, they will have to deal with the added expectations from the hockey community and that also leads to some added measures taken from your opponents.  The truly great players and teams will learn their way through these added measures, so the 2015 season will be a true test for this Avalanche bunch.

How do I think the Avalanche will fare in 2015?  I don't necessarily see a repeat of the regular season Central Division title, but I can see the Avalanche staying in the race.  Chicago, St. Louis and Minnesota will all be ready to take them down, all will be aiming for them, but the Avalanche's leadership core in Landeskog, Duchene and O'Reilly (assuming he re-signs) should act as great role models down the stretch, which keeps them in the playoff hunt.  Varlamov has established himself as a true number one goalie and he'll need to stay healthy for a big run, but that is something you can't predict at this time of the off-season.  I look for the Avalanche to win games, score goals and be great for us poolies.  They shouldn't do badly for their fans either.