Pool Outlook for Montreal

The 2014 season should be considered largely successful for such a small club.  On the shoulders of their number one goalie, Carey Price, cementing his status as one of the elite goaltenders in the world.  The Canadiens played their way into the Eastern Conference Finals, lining up against the New York Rangers, but it was a Game One injury to their number one goalie, which arguably turned the tables on the fortunes of the Habs, but I wouldn't say it was the main reason why they dropped the series.

By and large, no one wants to lose in the playoffs, no matter how far you make it, but if you were to look what their expectations would have been at the beginning of the year and you would have to say that the Habs did well and have given themselves a bit more credibility, despite their shortcomings, pardon the pun.

A lot had been said about how the Canadiens didn't score very much in the Conference Finals, but through their trade deadline work, they managed to open up a lot more space, divide the oppositions key defenders and find ways to score, using their speed and their drive to the net.  Once they met the Rangers, they ended up being the slowest team of the two and I think that was their undoing.  All the breaks that they made that beat the Lightning and the Bruins in the two series previous, didn't work quite as well against New York, and the Rangers capitalized more on transition plays, when the Habs rushes fell flat.

Teams are going to find that they won't match up completely well against everyone, but if the Canadiens continue on with the formula they have been going with for the last few years, they at least know that there is some success possible in the way they play.  With Price in the net, the team will have that piece in the free agent market that should attract some of the top talent available.  Now, it's a matter of getting that job done to improve on their success this season.

It should come as no surprise that Price was the backbone of the club, winning 34 games, 6 by shutout and adding a pair of assists for 82 points in 2014.  That had him ranked 11th overall, 6th among all goalies, but his play was somewhat limited, thanks to his role on the Gold Medal-winning team that went to Sochi for the Winter Olympics.  Price ranked 10th in the NHL in minutes played, which could have been much greater, if this wasn't an Olympic year, but the Habs did well to temper his playing time and it almost paid off completely, being one step away from a chance at a Cup.

Backing up Price for the vast majority of the season was Peter Budaj, who finished with 10 wins and a shutout in the year, but Budaj lost the confidence of the coaching staff, giving way to Dustin Tokarski, who played in a few games to finish the regular season and then took over in the playoffs, when Price got hurt.

Among the forwards that finished the regular season in a Canadiens uniform, Thomas Vanek led them all with 27 goals and 68 points in 78 games between Long Island, Buffalo and Montreal.  Vanek was the subject of a couple of big deals in the year, but his final landing spot appeared to be the right one, helping the team reach as far as they did.  Vanek complimented guys like Max Pacioretty, who finished with 39 goals and 60 points in 73 games, and David Desharnais finishing with 16 goals and 52 points in 79 games.  Those were the only three forwards to finish in the top 100 overall and among forwards on the team, as there were a few power outages from players like Tomas Plekanec and Daniel Briere.

On the blueline, the Canadiens only featured two of the top 100 defensemen in scoring, as P.K. Subban finished 6th with 10 goals and 53 points in all 82 games, while Andrei Markov ended up with 7 goals and 43 points, finishing 20th among defensemen.  It wasn't a remarkable year from the point, as the remainder of the regulars on patrol were used in the defensive end, doing well to stand up the opposition and keep the traffic in front of their number one guy in check.

2015 Pool Outlook

When you finally get down to the scoring numbers of the Canadiens, one thing really pops out and that there isn't a great deal of scoring depth to choose from for our pool teams.  Yes, Price is going to be a 1st round pick and Subban could find himself taken in the 2nd round for his offense from the blueline, but today, there doesn't seem to be much more after that.  Free agency is going to either play a part in improving the team in this category or wreak havoc on the team going forward.  The team should be due to get bounce back years out of Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk, who each suffered down years from their rookie seasons, thanks to a bit of the jinx.  Will they be enough to lift the numbers of the rest of the team though?

The team has some spots open on their projected roster and more may open up, if the some of the chips fall as expected.  With the snub in the playoffs, Budaj may want out of Montreal, leaving the door open for Dustin Tokarski to take the back-up job, which could be a real possibility.  Free agency has decimated the blueline, which will give a great shot to Nathan Beaulieu to get some concrete minutes and improve upon his 2014 season.  Charles Hudon is possibly the most interesting forward amongst the youth movement, as he played well for the World Junior squad for Canada... when healthy.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency is going to clean the cupboards a bit in Montreal or at least move some stuff around, so they can sweep around some of the old fixtures.  Andrei Markov appears to want to return to the club, with negotiations already underway, while Thomas Vanek will hit the open market, leaving the door open for a return to Montreal as well.  Forwards Brian Gionta and George Parros and defensmen Mike Weaver, Francis Bouillon and Doug Murray are also up for new deals.

On Tuesday (June 17th), the Canadiens re-signed forward Dale Weise to a new 2-year contract extension, which kept him from restricted free agency.  He wasn't exactly the headline player on their list of RFA's, but obviously an easy one to get done before the Entry Draft.  P.K. Subban is the headline guy in this case, as may have done enough to earn that long-term deal he was looking for last Summer.  Also in need of new deals, forwards Lars Eller and Ryan White.

With Weise now on board, the Canadiens now have 15 players on their projected roster, including 11 forwards, two defensemen and two goalies.  Currently, I have Budaj on the list as the back-up goalie, but with some changes expected, this is far from concrete.  With Weise and Budaj, I have their current cap number at $43.9 million, leaving $27.2 million to fill in eight roster spots.  Between Subban and Markov, that number will take a solid hit, but it will be some depth players that will be added to fill in those gaps, likely at a reasonable cost.

The NHL Entry Draft is such a fun place for the Montreal Canadiens to play up to their fans, finding a French-Canadian draft pick to parade around and surround with hype going forward.  A plan that hasn't done very well for them in recent years, as they have dealt away some of those paraded picks already.  This time around, they'll go along the same lines of what they have already, looking for some more dynamic scoring.  Centre Bobby Fabbri shares the smaller sized frame of some of his potential teammates, but has that work ethic that fight that, something like Brendan Gallagher already possesses.  It may be a bit of a repeat performance, but this sort of work ethic is what got this team past the President's Trophy winning Bruins, so why not go along the same lines?

Say what you will about the Canadiens, but they have made the playoffs five of the last six seasons, so no matter how much skepticism one might have about their abilities or their size, there is still playoff hockey in Montreal.  I suppose there is still some skepticism, no matter if they went to the Conference Finals, as this team just doesn't appear to excite on paper and if Carey Price was to ever go down again, what would possibly happen?

Price is a great goalie, both in the regular season and now in the playoffs and betting on his health is all I would be doing in making my prediction for the 2015 season.  Will the Canadiens make the playoffs again?  I am going to be on a resounding yes.  Could they make the Conference Finals or better next season?  It might not be nearly as confident, but I think it "could" happen, not exactly saying that it will happen.  The Canadiens will have to make a splash in the free agent market, on top of re-signing their key free agents and in doing so, we could better make this prediction.  But given the parameters we have right now, I like their chances again next season.