Monday, June 09, 2014

Pool Outlook for Philadelphia

At the beginning of the 2014 season, there was a lot of uncertainty about what the Philadelphia Flyers season would bring, in terms of wins.  Sure, the Flyers had plenty of firepower on paper, but there were plenty of questions about their new goaltending and how the defense would stack up.  Those question marks became even bigger, when the offense wasn't there to start the season and the team couldn't stack up any wins, which cost Peter Laviolette his job with the team, only three games into the season.

The Flyers were able to turn things around under the direction of new head coach Craig Berube, as the forwards started to score, the defense stabilized and they found a new number one goalie in Steve Mason.  It worked out to be a pretty long season, but nevertheless, they were able to make it to the playoffs, despite making a first round exit to the New York Rangers, who are currently in the Stanley Cup Finals, as this post gets published.

The Flyers, as an organization, also made some changes in the off-season, as Paul Holmgren stepped down as General Manager, taking a position further up in the organization, leaving the GM duties to former goalie for the team, Ron Hextall.  Hextall has seen some management experience already in the NHL and he will be relied upon to build upon a decent core group of players, adding a piece here and there and then getting them back to the glory days of making it deep into the playoffs.

The new era starts at the NHL Entry Draft at the end of the month and it will be interesting to see if Hextall starts a youth movement in the organization or stays with the current model of bringing in as much talent from other teams, as they grow within their own system.  There will be a little bit of pressure this year, as the Flyers are hosting the Draft in their building this year, so all eyes will be on the team, possibly hoping for a big splash.

One thing the team doesn't need to worry about at the moment is finding a good leader for the team, as Claude Giroux has taken to that spot quite well over the past couple seasons, leading by example on the scoresheet, no matter how slow he was out of the gate in 2014.  It took until his 6th game of the season before he registered a point and it wasn't until Game 16 before he even scored a goal for the Flyers, but once he got on the board, he was virtually unstoppable.  The 26-year old finished the year with 28 goals and 58 assists in all 82 games, finishing 7th overall in pool scoring and 3rd among all forwards, which helped him to a Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award nod.

Jakub Voracek didn't quite have the repeat performance of his dynamite 2013 season, but the 24-year old Czech didn't fare too badly, picking up 23 goals and 39 assists in all 82 games for the Flyers, making a formidable 1-2 punch with Giroux during the year.  Wayne Simmonds also chipped in with a pretty good year, leading the team with 29 goals and then adding 31 assists in all 82 games.  The Flyers also had 20-goal seasons out of Scott Hartnell, Brayden Schenn and Vincent Lecavalier up front.

On the blueline, the team was led by Swiss puck-mover, Mark Streit, who scored 10 goals and 34 assists in all 82 games for the team.  Streit was aided by Kimmo Timonen, who finished with 6 goals and 29 assists in 77 games and then at the deadline, the team acquired Andrew MacDonald to help out.  MacDonald finished the season with 4 goals and 24 assists in 82 games between Long Island and Philadelphia.  All three defenders were in the top 100 for defensemen scoring during the regular season and will likely be good options next season.

Late in the 2013 season, the Flyers were somewhat ridiculed when they took a chance on former Columbus standout Steve Mason, who lost his job to former Flyers goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky.  Mason went 4-2 in seven appearances for the Flyers before the end of the year and the team saw enough in him to give him the reins for the 2014 season.  Mason didn't disappoint.  In 61 appearances, Mason finished with 33 wins, 4 shutouts and an assist for 75 points, making him 22nd overall in pool points, 9th among goalies.  He was definitely solid again.

2015 Pool Outlook

The Philadelphia Flyers have too much in place to not be a good team in the 2015 season.  Their forwards are coming around as dominating forces, the defense has some stability through some possible losses in free agency and they now have a goaltender that has some confidence going forward.  I would say that the Flyers should be a team that you should be looking at, come hockey pool time, because they will have all that talent coming back and the only thing you may have to worry about is another early season slump... at worst.

The Flyers have never been in too much of a rush to move their youngsters forward, unless they show an excess of poise and talent, namely like Sean Couturier.  It will be interesting to see if a kid like Scott Laughton makes the jump this year, as the 20-year old has likely seen his last days in junior and after a solid effort in the OHL and with Team Canada the World Juniors, he might be ready to make that leap.  On the blueline, there may be just enough space to see a kid like Shayne Gostisbehere make the jump, possibly as the number seven guy on the depth chart.  He comes with a little bit of fan fare and could be an impact player down the line.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Kimmo Timonen and Ray Emery head the list of possible unrestricted free agents to come out of Philadelphia, as the two veterans are without deals at the moment.  Steve Downie, Adam Hall, Hal Gill and Bruno Gervais will also get some consideration, before hitting the open market.

There is some work to be done on the restricted side of the ledger as well, as Brayden Schenn leads the list of players in need of a new deal and he will be the biggest priority in the Summer.  Defenseman Erik Gustafsson will also need a new deal and will be up for something a little more substantial, if he is to stay with the club.

How much space does the Flyers have to work with this Summer?  Well, if you're not counting Chris Pronger against their cap space, nor should you, since he's going right back to the LTIR, I have the Flyers with $11.2 million for five roster spots being open.  I have the current projection at 10 forwards, five defensemen and Mason in net for $59.9 million, against the projected $71.1 million cap ceiling.

The Flyers, picking at home, will have the 17th overall selection and this will be Ron Hextall's first pick as General Manager of the club... will it be a goalie?  No, I don't think so.  The Flyers may not be deep in goaltending, but they have never been a team to spend time or a quality draft pick on a keeper.  I could see Hextall go back to the roots of the Broad Street Bullies a little more and select a potential power forward in Alex Tuch.  Tuch is already listed at 6'3" and 215 pounds, a body that could likely carry others to the front of the net.  Having more of a presence in front of the opposition net has to put a smile on the coaching staff's faces.

I honestly thought that the Flyers would do more to surprise people in the playoffs this time around, especially with a revitalized Mason in net.  Unfortunately, Mason was also dealing with an injury, which hampered a very confident season, so the dream ended quite quickly.  There is little doubt in my mind that this team can build on the comeback success that they saw in 2014 and apply that to the 2015 campaign.

With that being said, the Flyers, who finished 3rd in the Metropolitan Division in 2014, should improve on those numbers, thanks to an unlikely drop in points at the beginning of the season... like they did in 2014.  I would imagine that lessons were learned, capabilities of some are now known and new management will pump some new blood into this team.  I see the Flyers contending for the Division title in 2015 and then make a stronger push into the playoffs.  Philadelphia is still a move or two away from being a true Cup contender in 2015, but I wouldn't say that that move or those moves are out of the question.

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