Pool Outlook for Ottawa

It was certainly a season of disappointment for the Ottawa Senators in 2014, especially after an inspired 2013, where they made the playoffs, despite numerous injuries to a number of their star players.  With a number of their players remaining healthy for the better part of the season, you can imagine the disappointment of not making the playoffs, rather falling somewhat flat on their faces, 5 points back of a Detroit Red Wings team that had nothing but injuries to their star players.

11 of the regular skaters for the Senators played in 75 or more games, but there were some disappointing point totals.  Of course, there were some injury troubles, as you may suspect in an 82-game season and that may have triggered some inconsistencies through the line-up, which may have led to some irregular scoring or winning patterns, but after that 2013 season, you would have thought that playing with adversity was something this club could do well.

There doesn't appear to be any change to happen for the management team or the coaching staff, but the Ottawa Senators may be looking at making some moves in this off-season, possibly seeing a star player or two shuffled off and they may give a new opportunity to some of their youth or even acquire some NHL-ready talent to step in.  This has the potential to be an interesting off-season for the Sens.

The best player for Ottawa in the 2014 season has been the best player for the team for the last few years, as Erik Karlsson continues to dazzle with his offensive capabilities from the back end.  Karlsson played in all 82 games, which was a great sign, especially coming off that torn Achilles tendon, that he suffered in the 2013 season and Karlsson came back with a vengeance.  In all 82 games, Karlsson scored 20 goals and 54 assists for 74 points, scoring at 0.9 points-per-game, a respectable total.  In the pool rankings, Karlsson finished 24th overall, which would have made him the last pick in the 1st round in my draft.  That's a mighty fine year.

Let's continue on the blueliners, shall we?  Below Karlsson, it's a pretty big gap, but I think that is to be expected, given the numbers that Karlsson put up.  Marc Methot and Patrick Weircioch each had 23 points in the year and Weircioch suffered from all kinds of inconsistencies, which also led to the games he missed as healthy scratches.  High expectations on Jared Cowen after a new deal blew up in his face with only 15 points in 68 games.

Up front, the Senators rolled with a fairly steady line-up, but with Jason Spezza only picking up 66 points in 75 games to lead the way, it was an underwhelming performance all around.  Kyle Turris continued to improve on his career numbers, as he hit a new high in pool rankings, coming in 69th with 58 points in all 82 games.  Turris' game continues to grow, which may offer him some increased responsibilities here soon.  Clarke MacArthur was 3rd-best with 55 points in 79 games, while Bobby Ryan had a disappointing 23-goal season.

Goaltending for the Senators turned out to be a bit of an issue as well, because when Craig Anderson couldn't fulfill his duties as starter, Robin Lehner wasn't consistent enough to keep the wins coming for the team.  Anderson finished with 25 wins in 52 starts, which is below .500, sure, but Lehner had 12 wins in 30 starts, which didn't help their case much.  Neither were awesome through the year, but there were some injury troubles for Anderson, which didn't help much.

2015 Pool Outlook

There is plenty of smoke billowing out from the trade rumours out of Ottawa, as we head into this off-season, which puts some clouds of doubt into how I would approach some of these players, ranking them for hockey pool purposes.  I am just about ready to make Karlsson into a top five pick, given his value as a blueliner and what kind of difference there is between himself and other defenders out there.  Anderson in net should be a pretty good lock, but his stock went down with the number of injuries he saw in the year.  Turris is moving up, Bobby Ryan shaded down a bit, while depending on what kind of help the team gets, fringe players like MacArthur or Mika Zibanejad need the 'wait and see' approach.

There are some young players for the Senators that I am excited about and will probably rank a little higher than most and they begin with defenseman Cody Ceci, who came up midway through the season and got a good lesson on being an everyday defender in the league.  Memorial Cup winning forward Curtis Lazar will likely get a good look at training camp in September and if he shows us anything like he did at the World Junors or at the Memorial Cup, he could jump in and make an impact next season.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

A few interesting names headline the UFA crop in Ottawa, led by rental acquisition Ales Hemsky, who had a good showing in his short time with the Senators, despite not being able to help the team into the playoffs.  Milan Michalek, who had a disappointing 2014 season, may also head to the open market.  Defenseman Joe Corvo spent the back half of the year in the minors and is definitely expected to hit the market in July.

15 restricted free agents on my list at the moment and only a few really spring out as likely returnees to the line-up, although it is still early for a few to give up on, I suppose.  The headliners here are Robin Lehner, defenseman Eric Gryba and forwards Mike Hoffman and Stephane Da Costa.

The first projected line-up for the Senators for the 2015 season includes 16 players (nine forwards, six defensemen and a goalie), which has a projected cap hit of $48.6 million, leaving about $22.5 million left on the books to use.

Do the Ottawa Senators need to make a good pick in the 1st round of this year's Entry Draft?  You bet they do.  Can they?  Heck, no.  The Senators traded their 1st round pick to the Anaheim Ducks in the deal that brought them Bobby Ryan.  In the first season since this deal was done, the Senators have been caught with their pants down, as the Ducks have their pick and still made it into the playoffs, despite being knocked out in the 2nd round by the Los Angeles Kings.

The Senators won't make a pick until the 2nd round, 40th overall and there is no way I'm going to provide insight that far down the line.

Unlike Winter in Game of Thrones, change is coming in Canada's capital and the Senators will try a little bit of re-tooling to get themselves back into the playoffs and hopefully be competitive at the same time.  The name that continually comes up in the rumour mill is Jason Spezza, who won't be an easy player to move, given his $7 million cap hit for one more season, but I suppose it isn't the hardest pill to swallow, since it is only the one year.

Although I'm not GM Bryan Murray's biggest fan, I do respect him enough to say that he has done a pretty good job with the Senators and has done well with moves in and out of the organization for the most part.  If he is going to make some moves to change the complexion of the team, I think there is a good chance that he will succeed and see his team make the playoffs again in the 2015 season.  I like Karlsson to come back with another great year and as long as Anderson stays healthy, the Senators will be a team to reckon with in the 2015 season.