Pool Outlook for Tampa Bay

An opening round loss to the Montreal Canadiens capped off a season of 'what if's' for the Tampa Bay Lightning, as they couldn't find a great deal of luck to compliment the team coming together as a unit, raising a few eyebrows in the process.

An early season broken leg for Steven Stamkos cost him 45 games and a shot at a scoring title, while an Olympic omission sent Martin St. Louis packing to the Big Apple on a huge emotional rollercoaster and then their number one goalie, Ben Bishop, suffered a wrist injury, which kept him out of the playoff run, leaving a huge hole to fill in the crease.  What if Stamkos didn't get hurt?  What if St. Louis didn't throw a fit and ask to leave Tampa?  What if the Bolts had Bishop for the playoffs?  If these situations went the other way, we may have had some different results in the Eastern Conference.

On the plus side, the Lightning came away like bandits in the 2014 season, as they were able to throw in a pile of new talent onto their roster and a lot of it came up with big years.  Two out of the three Calder Trophy finalists belong to the Lightning, as Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson helped guide the way for the team, especially when all the injuries and trades happened.

There is plenty to like for the Tampa Bay Lightning going forward, as the team is establishing quite the foundation of players, starting with their big name stars, establishing young players and a giant backstop.  General Manager Steve Yzerman has done a pretty good job assembling a great support cast for Stamkos, which is beginning to look like a team that could almost function and win without their superstar player.  Of course, this past season, when Stamkos was hurt, they did have St. Louis, which certainly helped a bunch.

A late season injury prevented slightly better numbers, but Ben Bishop's season did not go unnoticed, as the hulking goaltender received a Vezina Trophy finalist nod for his 86-point season in 2014.  Bishop won 37 games with 5 shutouts and 2 assists, which was good enough for 8th overall in pool scoring, 5th among goalies.  Bishop was acquired from Ottawa late in the 2013 season for forward Cory Conacher and this deal is turning out to be heavily weighted in favour or the Lightning, who have relished in the accomplishments of Bishop in a season and a little bit.

Unfortunately for the Lightning, the goaltending department wasn't necessarily the strongest after Bishop.  Back-up goalie Anders Lindback didn't fare so well winning much less than a .500 pace, finishing with only 18 points on 8 wins with 1 shutout.  Kristers Gudlevskis and Cedrick Desjardins also made appearances, which makes the race for the back-up job in 2015 very interesting.

Up front for the Bolts, there were five players higher up in scoring at the end of the year, compared to Steven Stamkos, who had lost out on so many games.  Ondrej Palat (59 points in 81 games), Valtteri Filppula (58 points in 75 games), Tyler Johnson (50 points in 80 games), Teddy Purcell (42 points in 81 games) and Alex Killorn (41 points in 82 games) all fared better, thanks to healthy seasons, than Stamkos, who finished with 40 points in 37 games.  It wasn't necessarily a banner year in scoring, but the team is dripping in potential and we still haven't seen the likes of Jonathan Drouin on the team yet.

You know everything is really coming around for a team when your new goalie has a great year, your youth earned spots and your number one defenseman had a career year.  Victor Hedman, the team's 1st round pick in 2009, had a breakout year, scoring 13 goals and 42 assists in 75 games, ranking 5th among defensemen in pool scoring in the year.  Hedman finished 84th overall in scoring, where his previous high in scoring rankings was 234th.  That's quite the jump.  Matt Carle and Radko Gudas also finished in the top 100 in defensemen scoring, scoring 31 and 22 points, respectively in the year.

2015 Pool Outlook

With the season that the Lightning had, I think there will be a lot of people earmarking a number of Bolts for their hockey pool teams and given that some of these flashy players will be sophomores next season, it may be a little bit early to really jump on board with them right away.  Sure, Stamkos, Bishop and Hedman are all going to be sexy picks next year and you should be jumping on them as soon as possible, but if your'e looking to make a splash with Palat, Johnson, Kucherov or Killorn, you may want to be a little hesitant with them, because the jinx happens too often for it not to be considered.  I would be inclined to discount those players, maybe taking a proven player instead of those four, unless you could pick them up a little later, in a more comfortable round.

The young players to watch in the 2015 season pretty well revolves around Jonathan Drouin, who surprisingly didn't make the jump into the league last season, but instead, dominated the QMJHL for another year and got another shot at the World Juniors, which was likely some excellent experience to draw from in the future.  Drouin should be ready to make the jump, which will keep the Lightning line-up fresh with young talent and will likely help push some of the other young players into keeping away from the jinx.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Unrestricted free agency shouldn't have a great deal of impact on the final 2014 roster, as the main player being struck from the list is defenseman Sami Salo, who may or may not return to the NHL as a whole.  He heads into the Summer as a 39-year old and there likely isn't too many games left in those legs.

Restricted free agency may prove to be quite a bit of work, as the Lightning will have to negotiate new deals with forwards Alex Killorn, J.T. Brown, Richard Panik, Tom Pyatt and Brett Connolly, as well as defensemen Mark Barberio and Andrej Sustr, not to mention back-up goalie Anders Lindback.  They'll all be prioritized accordingly, but that does look like quite a bit of work to be done.

As for the team's cap number, there are some conservative assumptions on the projected roster.  Ryan Malone's drug suspension has bumped him off, while Mattias Ohlund didn't feature due to injury and Jonathan Drouin hasn't made the team... yet.  With all of that being said, I have the Lightning cap hit in at $43.8 million for 12 players (Seven forwards, four defensemen and a goalie).  This leaves $27.3 million for 11 roster spots, against a projected $71.1 million ceiling.

At the NHL Entry Draft, the Lightning will get to make two more picks in the 1st round, as their own pick will come in at the 19th selection and they also have the New York Rangers' pick, which they acquired in the deal that sent Martin St. Louis to the Big Apple.  The Rangers pick will either be 28th or 29th overall, depending if they lose or win the Cup.  For this post, we'll just worry about the 19th overall pick, as I continue to fill out my mock draft.  Last Summer, the Lightning were forwards heavy in the draft, so I could see the Lightning going after some more defensive help, using their pick for the best defenseman and using the Rangers pick for another forward.  With the 19th pick, I could see the Lightning going with Anthony DeAngelo from the Sarnia Sting of the OHL.

The Lightning are coming together at the right time and are exciting to watch on a daily basis, which will keep the market in Tampa Bay excited for years to come.  It was too bad that Tampa couldn't get everything to come together for the 2014 season, but that's the nature of professional sports and things don't quite happen like some people would prefer the script to go.  Nevertheless, if you're banking on potential and what that can mean down the line, well, then the Bolts are the team for you.

If Tampa Bay does go through a bit of that sophomore jinx phase, which strikes a number of young players in the second full year of their career, like I have a feeling might happen to a few players, the team at least has that influx of new blue chip talent coming in, not to mention their developed talent already in the line-up to keep the jinx from wreaking too much havoc throughout.  The turnover on the roster should all be looked after and the team shouldn't hit much of a speed bump in the 2015 season. I am leaning towards a slight improvement on their 101-point season in the standings, but surpassing the Boston Bruins for the Atlantic Division title may still be a year or two away.  The playoffs are all but certain, possibly having some real success in the 2015 Spring Dance.  All of these are real possibilities.