Monday, June 16, 2014

Pool Outlook for Boston

The Boston Bruins have played a lot of hockey in the past five seasons and that will wear down the core of the team that has been a part of the whole ride.

Nevertheless, the team was still able to play through a bit of that extra fatigue and make it to the second round of the playoffs, where they ended up dropping their series against the Montreal Canadiens in seven games.

The Bruins have remained competitive since their Stanley Cup win in 2011 and are always in the conversation now for potential championships since, so even though they have played so much hockey, it is likely that the second round exit is still a disappointing finish.  It doesn't take away from a very good season, where they won the President's Trophy for the best regular season and it won't change the course of this team, which may have to re-tool a little bit, but their core should remain the same, for the most part, looking to get back to the Cup Finals again in 2015.

Expectations will remain high for this team, but in their run of extended seasons, they still are not the greatest hot bed for hockey pool talent.  The Bruins will give us a top end goalie, a top 25 defenseman, a 2nd round forward and then some great mid-round players to add some depth.  Nothing really jumps off the page at you, when you look at the Bruins roster for hockey pool purposes, but that is just the way that they play... a solid 20-man effort on the ice.

Tuukka Rask is the only Boston Bruins player worthy of a 1st round pick in your hockey pool drafts and given the number of wins the Bruins will come away with in a season, he should be included in the 1st overall conversation, but generally falls out of sight, due to much sexier picks.  In 2014, Rask finished with 88 points, thanks to a 36-win season, 7 shutouts and 2 assists and that was good enough for 5th overall, 4th among goalies in hockey pool scoring.  Rask has now led the Bruins in back-to-back seasons, after the departure of Tim Thomas, taking the number one job and has done well in the position.  2013, he finished 21st overall and then improved upon those numbers last season.  He'll be a great pick up next season.

The goaltending load was shared with career backup goalie Chad Johnson, who has had a couple cups of coffee with the New York Rangers.  Johnson emerged as a capable back-up for Rask, winning 17 games with 2 shutouts, good enough for 38 points and was the 33rd ranked goalie in pool scoring.  He just flew under the radar in my pool this year, going unpicked all season.

Up front, the Bruins forwards topped out with three 60-point players, David Krejci (69 points in 80 games), Patrice Bergeron (62 points in 80 games) and Jarome Iginla (61 points in 78 games).  Krejci and Iginla were together for the better part of the season, working the team's top line, while Bergeron worked the team's second line with a number of different linemates.  Milan Lucic (59 in 80), Brad Marchand (53 in 82) and Reilly Smith (51 in 82) rounded out the team's scoring up front.

The Bruins found some extra offense on the blueline beyond Zdeno Chara, as he and Torey Krug each finished the year with 40 points each.  Chara scored 17 goals in 77 games and Krug score 14 goals in 79 games and they finished 24th and 25th in defensemen scoring, respectively.  Chara has been fairly steady in his scoring never finishing in the top 100 overall, but has only dipped below the top 200 once in the last six seasons.  Krug emerged in the 2013 playoffs as a good offensive option and kept that roll going in 2014.  Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Boychuk, Andrej Meszaros and Matt Bartkowski all finished the top 100 in defenseman scoring, so you can find depth for your blueline in Boston.

2015 Pool Outlook

There are some rumblings that the salary cap budget, despite going up for the 2015 season, may mean that a core player, maybe two, get forced out for some cheaper help and given that the team isn't known for the top end talent, rather the team game, finding cogs to fit in this machine may be easier to find, than a team looking for a scoring top six centre or a top pairing defenseman.  The core of the Bruins, for the most part, should remain intact and if they continue to play their team game, there is no reason why they wouldn't be the same kind of team, with the same expectations of a long playoff run.  Krejci, Bergeron, Lucic, Marchand, Chara, Hamilton and Rask are all signed on and ready to go and should be worthy hockey pool pick-ups.

Between the projected roster the Bruins have at the moment and some of the free agents they are looking to re-sign, there won't be a lot of room for new young talent, but they may have to bring some up, just for budgetary purposes.  I could see a flashy kid like Alex Khokhlachev get a good look in camp, as the team could look to him for some added offense in the coming season.  2011 3rd round pick Anthony Camara also would be a likely candidate, as he is a player that looked like he'd fit the Boston Bruins mold at the World Juniors.  Those two will be who I keep an eye on.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

It has been made known out in the hockey circles that Jarome Iginla, a pending unrestricted free agent, who played well with the Bruins last season, is the team's top priority.  Other budgetary moves by the Bruins may also be to fit Iginla's generally large cap hit in.  Other potential UFA's include Shawn Thornton, Andrej Meszaros, Corey Potter and back-up goalie Chad Johnson.

I would imagine that the top two priorities for the Bruins in the restricted free agent category would be forward Reilly Smith, who came from Dallas in the Tyler Seguin deal and scored a bunch, and defenseman Torey Krug, who had a great year with the Bruins in 2014.  Jordan Caron, Matt Bartkowski and goalie Niklas Svedberg are also among those in need of new deals.

I currently have the Bruins in with nine forwards, six defensemen and Tuukka Rask in net for an annual cap hit of $58 mllion, leaving about $13.1 million for seven more roster spots.  If Iginla is going to command North of $5 million, that does not leave much room at all for the remainder of the depth the team needs.  Bruins management will have to be creative in the off-season to check off everything that they want to accomplish on their wish list.

The last home run that the Bruins had in the 1st round of the Entry Draft was defenseman Dougie Hamilton in 2011 and they could really do with another one this Summer.  In Philadelphia, the Bruins will be picking with the 25th overall pick.  The team won't necessarily be looking for a player that can jump into the opening night roster, as they are quite patient with their prospects, but with the potential for roster turnover in the coming years, they may feel a need for more help down the line.  I could see the Bruins going with another defender for their home run swing, as they go with Calgary Hitmen defender Travis Sandheim, who is touted as an offensive defenseman.

A team with budgetary issues going into the off-season becomes the more intriguing team to watch, much like when the Chicago Blackhawks had to sell off their talent after they won their first Cup in 2010.  The Bruins haven't really had to do much for selling off assets, but it looks like that will be the case this Summer.  Assets will come and go, players will get older, contracts will get bigger and there are a few other variables a manager has to consider every year, which is the biggest test of a winning manager's resolve.  They have to juggle all of this and keep their team competitive and this Summer will be a great test for Peter Chiarelli.

Will the Bruins stay competitive in 2015?  There isn't enough reason to say no, so the only logical conclusion is to say yes.  The biggest name on the trading block, allegedly, is Brad Marchand and if he was the only player to go in the off-season, the Bruins would still thrive without him.  Marchand has been an important player for the team, but at $4.5 million for the next three seasons, he may have priced his 25 goals out of the Bruins budget.  Nevertheless, I see this team getting most of what they want done and then setting up a good defense of their President's Trophy.  They will be a contender for the Cup and I fully expect much of the same from them in 2015.

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