Thursday, May 01, 2008

Prospective Look at Nashville

The Predators are the first team that made the playoffs to get a Prospective Look done. They have their own spot in the Entry Draft sewn up out of the Top 14, in 15th position. They also hold Florida's first round pick in 9th, so they are going to upgrade well this summer. But since they hold the 15th spot, they get to be the next team examined.

The idea to trade Tomas Vokoun to Florida turned out to be okay, as the team still managed to scrape into the playoffs with both Chris Mason and Dan Ellis. It was obvious that the Predators were going to have to work their nuts off to make their way into the playoffs, so they did. A solid group of veteran forwards, with a slight mix of young talent guided the way, while a backline full of good young players helped out from the back.

The trick this summer will be to keep the core players together under budget, which could be very troubling due to some upcoming numbers. Currently, the team has 15 core guys signed on for next season at an approximate cost of $30.8 million. Last season's budget was hovering around $36 million and thanks to some good raises to J-P Dumont and David Legwand, the job is going to be tough. Below is a list of who is already signed. See if you can point out the big names that are missing.


ForwardsDefenseGoaltenders
J-P DumontMarek ZidlickyChris Mason
Jason ArnottDan Hamhuis
Alexander RadulovGreg de Vries
David LegwandGreg Zanon
Vern Fiddler
Radek Bonk
Jordin Tootoo
Scott Nichol
Jared Smithson
Jed Ortmeyer


The names that jump out right away are Martin Erat (restricted, arbitration), Ryan Suter (restricted), Shea Weber (restricted) and Dan Ellis (unrestricted). The core will likely require these four players to remain together to have any hope of making the playoffs again next season.

In Suter and Weber, they are two defensemen who are really making names for themselves in Nashville and are both up for some significant raises. Suter and Weber are both considered threats to score from the blueline and they offer size as something to fall back on. Both are under the age of 25 as well. If the Preds are to sign long-term, they will likely be looking at $3 million per year each and depending on their agent, possibly more. That's a pretty substantial hit to a team on a budget.

Martin Erat has hovered in the and around the Top 100 in league/pool scoring and now he's eligible for arbitration this summer. He will also fall into the $3 million per season range in market comparison, which is really starting to add up. Ellis may have a harder time making a lot more money, unless the team is convinced that he can take the number one from right off the hop. Chris Mason is set to earn $3 million next season for the Predators and he may not be the starter, what will that mean for Ellis?

Predators ownership is going to have to pony up or else we will likely see the same sort of exodus that Buffalo saw last summer, when all these pieces are unable to be put together. At least the team holds cards on Suter and Weber, but as restricted free agents, they could also be subject to a team's offer sheet to boost their price as well.

On the bright side for the Preds, if they are to lose one or both of their key defensemen, they still have Jonathan Blum coming up the ranks to help them out and let's not forget Cody Franson as well. Nashville's system has been a blueliner factory over the past few years, so they are well endowed there, but the new guys will lack that experience that comes with the seasons in the NHL.

With both the 7th and 15th picks in the first round of the Entry Draft, the team will have a few different scenarios available to them. They could just as easily move one of their picks for some immediate help or invest the two picks in two prospects that could grow in their system. Their scouting department has been good over the past couple years, so they are likely to make good with their picks, if they were to keep them. They also have two picks in the second round, so they will likely build up their stock in this deep draft year.

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