Pool Outlook for Edmonton

The rebuild in Edmonton has started to blossom, but whatever seedlings had popped out of the ground in the 2011 season were quickly set back by some key injuries, hurting not only the players, but the team as a whole, giving them another 30th place finish in the NHL and after the draft lottery, the 1st overall pick in the 2011 Entry Draft in Minnesota.  Things are beginning to look up for the Oilers, as there was some real progress made by some of their top prospects in the NHL surroundings, but there will likely be some added expectations going into 2012.

With injuries where they were with the club, the top pool scoring player for the Oilers, Jordan Eberle, only finished with 43 points, which was only good enough for 175th overall in the league.  By no means is that a bad total, especially on a team that relied so heavily on the youth to carry the offense.  Eberle finished with 18 goals and 25 assists in 63 games, hampered by injuries as well this year, but at least he finished the season on the ice, which is more than some of his teammates can say.  Despite some low scoring numbers, Eberle did show off some of his razzle-dazzle, which may not be reflected in pool numbers, but he was sure fun to watch.

The numbers are very similar down the line for the other top scoring forwards for Edmonton, as Taylor Hall finished with 42 points in 65 games, Sam Gagner had 42 points in 68 games, Ales Hemsky had 42 points in 47 games, Andrew Cogliano had 35 points in all 82 games and Magnus Paajarvi had 34 points in 80 games.  Besides Cogliano and Paajarvi, it was a pretty rough year for keeping their top forwards in the line-up, which again, led to some of the scoring woes for the Oilers.  The scoring rates of the top forwards were decent, which should give a good deal of hope going forward, as these top players didn't look out of place.

It was looking like a promising year out of the Oilers defense, but injuries and inconsistencies again hampered their line-up.  Ryan Whitney was on his way to a great season before suffering a major ankle injury, scoring 27 points in 35 games, having one of the better scoring rates by an Oilers player by the end of the year.  Both Tom Gilbert and Kurtis Foster were hurt at various points in the season, but overall, their numbers were a bit disappointing, possibly carrying a few too many expectations into the year.  Gilbert finished with 26 points in 79 games and Foster, 22 points in 74 games.  Those three should be good targets for the draft next year.

A lack of scoring and some inconsistent defense made for some long nights in the Oilers nets, making the job extra difficult, in an already tough situation.  Devan Dubnyk did shine in his 12 wins this season, leading all three goaltenders that dressed for Edmonton with 28 points in the 2011 season.  Nikolai Khabibulin and Martin Gerber each made appearances this season, but with 24 and 7 points, respectively, it was a good reflection of how bad the season was for Edmonton.

2012 Pool Outlook
No one can promise a healthy season for any team, but the potential of a healthy team in Edmonton is on a rocket ship, ready to go through the roof.  Their youthful forwards are signed on, the defense has some offensive upside and the goaltending should be decent enough to go along for the ride.  A few key additions to the line-up below could make the 2012 Oilers into a very good hockey pool team.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Jordan Eberle	Ryan Whitney	Devan Dubnyk
Taylor Hall	Tom Gilbert	Nikolai Khabibulin
Sam Gagner	Kurtis Foster
Ales Hemsky	Jeff Petry
Magnus Paajarvi
Shawn Horcoff
Linus Omark
Gilbert Brule
Colin Fraser

The team I have listed above, plus one buyout, is only coming in at an annual cap rate of $37.6 million and there has been some rumblings of another 5% increase on the salary cap in 2012, which would bring the floor up to $45.5 million (approximately).  The preliminary roster above is only 15 players deep, so there will be plenty of room to make up $8 million or so of needed cap space.

The free agent crop for the Oilers starts with the restricted free agents, led by Andrew Cogliano, who had signed a 1-year deal last Fall, opening up some flexibility for the Oilers, debating on what to do with the speedy forward.  His role with the team may depend highly on how they draft this year.  Also notable RFAs include Theo Peckham, Liam Reddox and Ladislav Smid.

The list of unrestricted free agents is a bit smaller, but still somewhat important... Ryan Jones and Jim Vandermeer were important pieces for the team in 2011, helping to bridge the gaps left behind by some of the other injured players.  If Jones makes it to market, he might be able to snag a pretty hefty contract.

The Oilers brought up a lot of their young talent near the end of the 2011 season, with Teemu Hartikainen, Linus Omark and Jeff Petry all making some sort of impact near the end of the season and I would be keen to watch all three of them make a bigger impact in the 2012 season.  I was really impressed by Hartikainen in the later parts of the season, as his strength and skating ability was an asset for the Oilers' bottom six and if he's complimented better, he could be a top six player before too long.

Blessed with the number one overall pick again in this year's draft, there is no reason why the Oilers won't be using it to continue this great rebuild they have going.  Their needs, outlined by most of the media outlets I've been watching, suggest that they will be looking for a centre or a defenseman this year and I'm going to go ahead and suggest that they will be looking at the blueline, trying to bulk up there, much like the Canucks and Predators have in the Western Conference as well.  Adam Larsson is the name that pops to mind immediately, a Swedish defender that has some real potential to jump into the line-up right away.  Be sure to check out my mock draft in June, where I'll likely explain my stance a little further.

What I said last year at this time... "On to 2011... the inclusion of their first overall pick, be it Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin, into their line-up should help the team out in their scoring woes, not to mention the return of Ales Hemsky from injury. As a whole, the Oilers do have a good framework to build from already, but they will still probably be another year or two from doing their fair share of winning. I would be discounting Hemsky and Khabibulin next season in their potential points, not wanting to draft them too soon, but maybe comfortable with drafting them late. I also think it would be fair to do the same to either Hall or Seguin, depending on who shows up, maybe giving them less potential points than some of the other rookies on better teams."

My look forward to 2011 was fairly accurate, as Taylor Hall was a very good addition to the Oilers, while Hemsky, when healthy was very good.  Discounting both Hemsky and Khabibulin would have worked out in your favour if you did discount their numbers, as injuries and inconsistencies did hamper the two stars.  The framework is definitely there and winning isn't too far away.

Going into the 2012 season, it's hard not to look at the obvious concern and that is health of their star players.  We know Hemsky is injury-prone, but Eberle, Hall and Paajarvi are going to be the ones that most will worry about, since they are so new to the league.  I like where the Oilers are headed this coming year and I can see some pretty good things for them.  Will they challenge for a playoff spot?  I think their challenge may fall short a little bit earlier than most, but they should finish ahead of Calgary and Minnesota in 2012, if everything goes according to the rebuilding plan.