Pool Outlook for Carolina

The Carolina Hurricanes were very close to making the playoffs, as they finished only 2 points out of 8th spot in the East, even had destiny in their own hands in the last couple days of the season, but failed to make that last push into the dance. As a whole, the season wasn't too bad, but it really wasn't that great either.  There were some definite hiccups through the season, but they showed some real promise, debuted some young talent and reassured everyone that they have one of the best goaltenders in the NHL.

In Carolina, I think there are only two players that probably come to mind when you think about the Hurricanes and either of them can take top spot in pool scoring at any given year.  This year, it's Cam Ward who took the Canes top spot, finishing the year with 37 wins, 8 shutouts and 1 assist for 83 points, good enough for 15th overall in pool scoring and 8th among goalies, but didn't lift the team into the playoffs.  How incredible is that?  This is the second time in three years that Ward has finished in the top 20 in pool scoring, making him a bonafide 1st round pick in the draft this coming Fall.

The other name that comes to mind when you think Hurricanes is Eric Staal and he led all forwards on the team with 76 points in 81 games, ranking him 25th overall in pool scoring.  A few more goals from him and he would have been a top 20 pick, easy.  Jeff Skinner also made a name for himself, as the rookie finished the year with 63 points in 82 games, giving himself a Calder Trophy nod this year.  Rounding out the forwards for 2011 were Tuomo Ruutu (57 points in 82 games), Erik Cole (52 points in 82 games) and Jussi Jokinen (52 points in 70 games).  The Hurricanes were good, but just not good enough.

On the blueline, Joe Corvo led the team with 40 points in all 82 games, ranking himself 24th among all defensemen in scoring.  Joni Pitkanen had an okay year, finishing the season with 35 points in 72 games, but I think expectations may have been a bit higher for him in the year.  Finally, Jamie McBain popped up onto the scene with a good year for Carolina, picking up 30 points in 76 games, making a lot of scouts look really good.  There was a good buzz on McBain coming into the year and he didn't disappoint.

Playing behind Ward in net (when he could) was Justin Peters, announced as the back-up well before training camp even happened.  There was more confidence shown in Peters in the off-season then there was when the team hit the ice, as Peters only managed 648 minutes worth of ice, as the only other goalie to play for Carolina, winning only 3 games and collecting 6 points.  Any back-up of Ward's will have a tough time picking up minutes.

2012 Pool Outlook
The Hurricanes are poised to be an awfully busy squad in the off-season, with only nine regulars signed to contracts at the moment.  The Hurricanes do have plenty of young players signed on, but they weren't exactly regulars throughout the year, so I figure they'll have to earn their way onto this list in training camp.  With such a small sample of players, it's really hard to look forward, so I really won't, except to say that they do look like they have a core that can work in the East.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Eric Staal	Joe Corvo	Cam Ward
Jeff Skinner	Jamie McBain	Justin Peters
Tuomo Ruutu	Bryan Allen
	Tim Gleason

Three forwards, four defensemen and two goalies signed on for $29 million, the annual cap number projection at the moment.  We could just as easily tack on about four or five more players for about $1 million a piece, but I think that's getting a little ahead of myself.  The Hurricanes will have plenty of talent on the 2012 addition, no matter how much money they spend.

The lack of returning players on the team table above has an awful lot to do with how many players are going to unrestricted free agency this Summer, if they are not signed on by July 1st.  Erik Cole, Jussi Jokinen, Cory Stillman, Joni Pitkanen, Chad Larose and a few others are all slated to hit the open market, as of today, but I would imagine that most of them will be picked up on a year or two basis, age dependent.

The restricted free agent list might not be quite as impressive or as much of a priority to the team, but there are some good names on there.  Brandon Sutter, Jiri Tlusty and Derek Joslin should attract some attention from management and likely some pretty sweet deals as well.

The Hurricanes depth in their system isn't as great as some other teams, especially since some of their younger talent has already graduated up into the NHL and the team hasn't really made the best of some of their picks.  A trio of forwards are going to look for a full-time job with the Hurricanes next season, but even that may seem like a tough hill to climb, likely limiting the number of prospects that make the jump next season.  Zac Dalpe, Drayson Bowman and Riley Nash are all looked upon to make a jump soon, but with Jeff Skinner going from the draft to the starting line-up, there appears to be some wiggle room for other young players.

As for the Draft needs, the Hurricanes are just not deep anywhere for blue chip talent.  The way I'm reading their prospects, they have a lot of maybes on the blueline, very little for goalies and most of their good forwards have already made the jump or are just about to.  At the 12th pick overall in the 1st round, the Hurricanes may still find some reasonable talent, but I think we will see them take the next best player available, rather than pick positionally.  I'm sure there may be some priorities, like a two-way defenseman, to potentially give a little bit more mobility out of their own zone.

What I said last year at this time... "I don't think the outlook really changes for Carolina going into 2011, especially since they have the same core of good players, plus they are going to be adding some more scoring punch with some of their younger players. The big question is how patient the coaching staff will be with players like Boychuk and Bowman, because they are never to hasty when bringing in young players. If the youth can prevail next season, the Hurricanes should be deep enough to make a good run at the Southeast Division again and Cam Ward should be one hell of a points producer for the pools next year."

I don't think the prognostication from last Summer was too far off, especially when you consider the injury situation in Carolina wasn't all that rosy.  The core players were pretty good and the coaching staff went 50% on the two young players that I was eyeing for the 2011 season.  The youth was put into a pretty hard situation with all the injury concerns in the year, which made Ward's job much harder and thus, took them out of the Southeast Division run a little earlier than expected.

For 2012, it might be a bit of the same for the Hurricanes, as the unrestricted free agent pool will likely be dried up before July 1st, thanks in large part to themselves and the players that they should be snapping up before they hit the market.  I don't really want to jinx Skinner in his sophomore season, but I don't think it's up to me, it'll likely happen, which may restrict how the Hurricanes finish.  If more youth come up, there could be some more growing pains against some established Southeast teams, which could put a damper on their season, but the team has plenty of upside to look forward to.  If the Hurricanes can swing a deal for another top six forward, I think that might be the tipping point to put the team in contention, but there are not very many to be had.  Beware of the Hurricanes at drafting time for your hockey pool.